小型・中型・大型商用車の世界市場の見通し（2023年）

当レポートでは、世界の小型・中型・大型商用車市場について調査分析し、各地域の注目すべき規制と動向、世界経済の見通し、成長機会などの情報を提供しています。

目次

戦略的必須要件

• 成長がますます困難になっているのはなぜか
• The Strategic Imperative 8（TM）
• LCV・MD・HDトラック業界に対する上位3つの戦略的必須要件の影響
• 成長機会がGrowth Pipeline Engine（TM）を促進

成長環境

• 主な調査結果：2022年の総括
• 主な調査結果：2023年の5大予測
• 注目すべき規制と義務：スナップショット
• LCV市場
• MD・HDトラック市場

範囲とセグメンテーション

• 調査の範囲
• 市場セグメンテーション

世界経済の見通し（2023年）

• 世界経済の5大ハイライト（2022年）
• 世界経済の5大ハイライト（2023年）
• 世界のGDP成長予測
• 主要国の景気後退/減速の予測
• 世界のGDP成長のスナップショット
• 先進経済国の予測（2023年）
• 新興経済国の予測（2023年）
• 地域のリスクと政策の方向性（2023年）
• 主な成長機会：地域別（2023年）

動向

• 世界の商用車市場：主な動向
• 動向の影響：地域別
• 動向1：車隊のゼロエミッション車両への移行
• 動向2：EV中心の車両管理ソリューション
• 動向3：M&Aが充電インフラを推進
• 動向4：TaaSの導入
• 動向5：燃料電池駆動のCVの登場

LCV市場の見通し

• 市場予測
• 市場予測：地域別、カテゴリ別
• LCV OEMの販売実績
• パワートレイン技術予測
• 主要OEMの予測されるeLCVの発売

MD・HDトラック市場の見通し

• 市場予測
• 市場予測：地域別、カテゴリ別
• MD・HDトラックOEMの販売実績
• パワートレイン技術予測
• 主要OEMの予測されるeMD・HDトラックの発売

LCV・MD・HDトラック市場の地域の分析

• 地域の分析：北米
• OEMパワートレイン技術プラットフォーム：北米
• 地域の分析：欧州
• OEMパワートレイン技術プラットフォーム：欧州
• 地域の分析：中国
• OEMパワートレイン技術プラットフォーム：中国
• 地域の分析：インド
• OEMパワートレイン技術プラットフォーム：インド
• 地域の分析：ラテンアメリカ
• OEMパワートレイン技術プラットフォーム：ラテンアメリカ
• 地域の分析：ASEAN
• OEMパワートレイン技術プラットフォーム：ASEAN

商用車の主な動向

• 接続性
• 電化
• アフターマーケット
• 自動運転L4
• 主要分野における進歩

成長機会

• 成長機会1：充電インフラ
• 成長機会2：水素燃料電池エコシステム
• 成長機会3：サービスとしてのトラック（Truck-as-a-Service）

次のステップ

Growth Regions China and India Drive Truck Demand Amid Continued Market Uncertainties

In this report, Frost & Sullivan studies the light commercial vehicle (LCV) and medium and heavy-duty (M&HD) truck segments for six regions: North America, Europe, China, India, Latin America, and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). The study period is 2022-2023, with 2022 as the base year and 2023 as the forecast year.

We segment the market by gross vehicle weight rating (GVWR); LCVs have a GVWR lower than 6 tons, while M&HD trucks have a GVWR equal to or above 6 tons. The subsegments in LCVs are pickups, vans, and cab-over-engine trucks. M&HD trucks comprise MD and HD trucks. The powertrain types include diesel, gasoline, natural gas, and electric vehicles (EVs).

Our analysis shows that the war in Ukraine had a cascading effect on multiple sectors of the global economy, with the overall business sentiment taking a huge hit. Supply chain constraints due to the war took inflation to unprecedented levels globally, prompting many central banks to increase interest rates. This increased the financing cost to purchase new equipment. Volatile energy markets resulted in a sharp rise in fuel prices, which ate into the profit margins of fleet operators. The truck market in Europe contracted by 18.3% in 2022. The truck market in China plummeted in 2022, contracting by over 50% due to the re-emergence of COVID-19 in most of the country, which led to lockdowns and tight curfew controls.

However, not all developments in 2022 were adverse. Established as well as new and upcoming original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) in the space launched several electric truck models. Tesla delivered its first semi-tractor trucks in December 2022, starting with Pepsi. The EV ecosystem dynamics rose to a different level, with companies from diverse backgrounds coming together, resulting in partnerships between OEMs, energy companies, and charging providers. Newer business models such as truck-as-a-service (TaaS) are gaining traction thanks to Volta Trucks, Quantron, and Nikola.

Frost & Sullivan expects economic challenges faced in 2022 to continue in 2023 as the situation has remained largely the same, especially with regard to the war. We anticipate rising fears of a recession in North America to make businesses and fleets more cautious about new purchases and investments. The market situation in Europe is still uncertain due to the status of the war, with little indication of its development. However, China and India will be the bright spots for the trucking industry in 2023, with improving macro indicators and demand from growing infrastructure activity.

The report offers stakeholders insights into the commercial vehicles market using the following:

• Recaps of 2022 and predictions for 2023
• Notable regulations and trends by region
• Global economic outlook
• LCV and M&HD segments outlook through sales, OEMs, powertrain technology, and product launches
• Analysis by region
• Growth opportunities

Key Issues Addressed:

• Trends impacting the global truck industry?
• The size of the global truck industry in 2022, the segment share, and leading original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) in different regions?
• Expected volume growth in 2023 and drivers in different regions?
• Projected penetration of key powertrain technologies across different regions?
• Top OEM performers in 2022 and their future powertrain strategy in different regions?

Table of Contents

Strategic Imperatives

• Why Is It Increasingly Difficult to Grow?
• The Strategic Imperative 8™
• The Impact of the Top Three Strategic Imperatives on the LCV, MD, and HD Truck Industry
• Growth Opportunities Fuel the Growth Pipeline Engine™

Growth Environment

• Key Findings: A Recap of 2022
• Key Findings: Top 5 Predictions for 2023
• Notable Regulations and Mandates: A Snapshot
• LCV Market
• M&HD Truck Market

Scope and Segmentation

• Research Scope
• Market Segmentation

2023 Global Economic Outlook

• Top 5 Global Economic Highlights of 2022
• Top 5 Global Economic Highlights of 2023
• Global GDP Growth Expectations
• Recessionary/Slowdown Expectations for Major Economies
• Global GDP Growth Snapshot
• Advanced Economy Predictions for 2023
• Emerging Economy Predictions for 2023
• 2023 Regional Risks and Policy Direction
• 2023 Top Growth Opportunities by Region

Trends

• Global Commercial Vehicle Market: Top Trends
• Impact of Trends by Region
• Trend 1: Fleets Moving to Zero-emission Vehicles
• Trend 2: EV-centric Fleet Management Solutions
• Trend 3: M&As Drive Charging Infrastructure
• Trend 4: TaaS Adoption
• Trend 5: Emergence of Fuel Cell-powered CVs

LCV Market Outlook

• Market Forecast
• Market Forecast by Region and Category
• LCV OEM Sales Performance
• Powertrain Technology Forecast
• Key OEMs' Anticipated eLCV Launches

M&HD Truck Market Outlook

• Market Forecast
• Market Forecast by Region and Category
• M&HD Truck OEM Sales Performance
• Powertrain Technology Forecast
• Key OEMs' Anticipated eM&HD Truck Launches

LCV and M&HD Truck Market Regional Analysis

• Regional Analysis: North America
• OEM Powertrain Technology Platforms: North America
• Regional Analysis: Europe
• OEM Powertrain Technology Platforms: Europe
• Regional Analysis: China
• OEM Powertrain Technology Platforms: China
• Regional Analysis: India
• OEM Powertrain Technology Platforms: India
• Regional Analysis: Latin America
• OEM Powertrain Technology Platforms: Latin America
• Regional Analysis: ASEAN
• OEM Powertrain Technology Platforms: ASEAN

Major Commercial Vehicle Trends

• Connectivity
• Electrification
• Aftermarket
• Autonomous L4
• Progress in Key Areas

Growth Opportunity Universe

• Growth Opportunity 1: Electric Charging Infrastructure
• Growth Opportunity 2: Hydrogen Fuel Cell Ecosystem
• Growth Opportunity 3: Truck-as-a-Service

Next Steps

• Your Next Steps
• Why Frost, Why Now?
• List of Exhibits
• Legal Disclaimer