将来の防衛技術における成長機会、2024-2033年

エネルギー、人工知能、材料科学における新技術の評価と防衛部門への影響

技術革新のスピードは加速し続けており、新たな脅威に対抗するための軍の技術力には大きな限界があることを露呈しています。新技術の導入は、軍事力に新たな脆弱性を生み出し、殺傷力、多様性、ハイブリッド性、汎用性を増している幅広い脅威に対応する戦略を要求しています。防衛分野の民間企業は、様々な理由で従来の防衛分野の既存企業を凌駕しています。従来の防衛技術開発には長いサイクルが必要で、信頼性が高く、堅牢で、複雑なシステムが求められ、主に公的資金に依存していました。これとは対照的に、現代の民間企業は、より迅速な技術革新のループと民間投資の増加を特徴とし、迅速なプロトタイピングとテストを重視し、生産までのリードタイムを短縮しています。この迅速な技術革新と開発という考え方が、この部門を推進しています。将来の技術進歩は、ある分野での進歩が隣接・補完する分野での開発を促進するという形で、相互の結びつきを強めていくと予想されます。ある分野でのブレークスルーが関連技術に大きな影響を与える可能性があるからです。その結果、将来有望な技術は、その開発・生産サイクルの早い段階で評価し、影響を最大化し、リスクを最小化する必要があります。前回の調査で取り上げた技術の中には、クラウドコンピューティングやデータアナリティクスなど、広く採用されているものもありますが、まだ研究中の技術もあります。

目次

戦略的インペラティブ

• なぜ成長が難しくなっているのか？
• The Strategic Imperative 8（TM）
• 将来の防衛技術業界に対する主要な戦略的インペラティブの影響
• Growth Pipeline Engine（TM）を促進する成長機会

エコシステム

• 目的と概要
• 主要技術
• 技術ロードマップ：動向分析

成長ジェネレーター

• 成長指標
• 世界の紛争シナリオ
• 成長促進要因
• 成長抑制要因

成長ジェネレーター：製品セグメント

• ハイパーソニック
• ハイパーソニック：研究開発活動
• ハイパーソニックの影響
• DEW
• DEW：研究開発活動
• DEWの影響
• ミリ波通信（5G）
• ミリ波通信（5G）：研究開発活動
• ミリ波通信（5G）の影響
• MR
• MR：研究開発活動
• MRの影響
• エネルギー生成・貯蔵
• エネルギー生成・貯蔵：研究開発活動
• エネルギー生成・貯蔵の影響
• AM
• AM：研究開発活動
• AMの影響
• 量子コンピューティング・暗号技術
• 量子コンピューティング・暗号技術：研究開発活動
• 量子コンピューティング・暗号技術の影響
• スワームロボティクス
• スワームロボティクス：研究開発活動
• スワームロボティクスの影響
• バイオテクノロジー・人間強化
• バイオテクノロジー・人間強化：研究開発活動
• バイオテクノロジー・人間強化の影響
• メタマテリアル
• メタマテリアル：研究開発活動
• メタマテリアルの影響
• MUM-T
• MUM-T：研究開発活動
• MUM-Tの影響

成長機会ユニバース

• 成長機会1：エネルギー貯蔵
• 成長機会2：メタマテリアル
• 成長機会3：ハイパーソニック
• 成長機会4：DEW
• 成長機会5：ミリ波通信（5G）

次のステップ

Evaluation of Emerging Technologies in Energy, Artificial Intelligence, and Materials Science and their Impact on the Defense Sector

The pace of technological change continues to accelerate, exposing significant limitations in militaries' technological abilities to combat emerging threats. The introduction of new technologies has created new vulnerabilities for military forces, demanding strategies to meet a wide range of threats that are becoming more lethal, diversified, hybrid, and versatile. Civilian companies in the defense space are outpacing traditional defense incumbents for a variety of reasons. Traditional defense technology development involved lengthy cycles, with a requirement for dependable, robust, and complex systems that primarily relied on public funding. Contrarily, modern commercial companies, which are characterized by faster innovation loops and increased private investment, emphasize rapid prototyping and testing with short lead times to production. This idea of rapid innovation and development is propelling the sector. Future technological advancements will be increasingly interconnected, with progress in one area driving development in adjacent and complementary areas. Anticipating the future of the armed forces necessitates tracking these interconnected technologies, as breakthroughs in one area can significantly impact related technologies. As a result, promising future technologies must be evaluated early in their development and production cycles to maximize impact and minimize risk. While some technologies from the previous study have seen widespread adoption, including cloud computing and data analytics, other technologies are still being explored.

Research Highlights

• The introduction of 5G technology, specifically millimeter wave communication, will revolutionize military communications. 5G offers unprecedented data speeds and reduced latency, facilitating real-time data sharing and enhanced situational awareness on the battlefield.
• Quantum computing promises to exponentially increase computational power, making it possible to solve complex problems that are currently intractable. For the military, this includes improved capabilities in simulations, logistics, and intelligence analysis, among other areas.
• Swarm robotics involves the use of numerous autonomous robots that work together to achieve a common goal. For militaries, swarms can conduct surveillance, reconnaissance, and offensive operations with high efficiency and redundancy. Manned-unmanned teaming enhances situational awareness, operational efficiency, and mission effectiveness.
• Mixed reality (MR) technology, which combines AR and VR, offers immersive training environments for soldiers, enhancing their preparedness and adaptability.
• Advances in biotechnology and human enhancement will significantly impact the capabilities of military personnel, including advancements in genetic engineering, prosthetics, and cognitive enhancement, with the aim of improving physical and mental performance.
• Additive manufacturing, which is also known as 3D printing, is transforming military logistics by enabling the on-demand production of spare parts and equipment.
• Advancements in energy generation and storage are vital to modern military operations. Advanced battery technologies (solid-state batteries, for example) provide higher energy densities and faster charging times to meet the rising power demands of modern military equipment.
• Hypersonic weapons, which can travel at speeds greater than Mach 5, represent a tremendous advancement in offensive capabilities. These weapons can elude traditional missile defense systems due to their high speed and maneuverability, making them a formidable threat.
• Directed energy weapons (DEWs), including high-energy lasers and microwave systems, offer precise and scalable offensive capabilities. DEWs can disable or eliminate targets with pinpoint accuracy, reducing the collateral damage.
• Metamaterials, which are designed to include properties not found in naturally occurring materials, are paving the way for advanced stealth technologies and enhanced sensing capabilities.

Table of Contents

Strategic Imperatives

• Why is it Increasingly Difficult to Grow?
• The Strategic Imperative 8™
• The Impact of the Top 3 Strategic Imperatives on the Future Defense Technologies Industry
• Growth Opportunities Fuel the Growth Pipeline Engine™

Ecosystem

• Purpose and Overview
• Key Technologies
• Technology Road Map: Trend Analysis

Growth Generator

• Growth Metrics
• Global Conflict Scenarios
• Growth Drivers
• Growth Restraints

Growth Generator: Product Segments

• Hypersonics
• Hypersonics: R&D Activities
• Hypersonics Impact
• DEWs
• DEWs: R&D Activities
• DEWs Impact
• Millimeter Wave Communications (5G)
• Millimeter Wave Communications (5G): R&D Activities
• Millimeter Wave Communications (5G) Impact
• MR
• MR: R&D Activities
• MR Impact
• Energy Generation and Storage
• Energy Generation and Storage: R&D Activities
• Energy Generation and Storage Impact
• AM
• AM: R&D Activities
• AM Impact
• Quantum Computing and Cryptography
• Quantum Computing and Cryptography: R&D Activities
• Quantum Computing and Cryptography Impact
• Swarm Robotics
• Swarm Robotics: R&D Activities
• Swarm Robotics Impact
• Biotechnologies and Human Enhancement
• Biotechnologies and Human Enhancement: R&D Activities
• Biotechnologies and Human Enhancement Impact
• Metamaterials
• Metamaterials: R&D Activities
• Metamaterials Impact
• MUM-T
• MUM-T: R&D Activities
• MUM-T Impact

Growth Opportunity Universe

• Growth Opportunity 1: Energy Storage
• Growth Opportunity 2: Metamaterials
• Growth Opportunity 3: Hypersonics
• Growth Opportunity 4: DEWs
• Growth Opportunity 5: Millimeter Wave Communications (5G)

Next Steps

• Benefits and Impacts of Growth Opportunities
• Next Steps
• Take the Next Step
• List of Exhibits
• Legal Disclaimer