高耐久ノートパソコン・2-in-1デタッチャブルコンピューターの世界市場

対象ベンダー

エグゼクティブサマリー

2021年に横ばいだった高耐久ノートパソコンは、2022年に記録的な売上を達成し、フォームファクター全体で2桁の伸びを示しました。2022年の販売急増の一因は、2020年～2021年にサプライチェーン課題において満たされなかった需要と、リモートワーカー向け機器から現場での利用に向けた高耐久デバイスへの注目のシフトにあります。OEMメーカーにとって部品不足はもはや課題ではなく、バイヤーは遅延した契約を進めているため、市場は空前の売上を記録しています。2023年第1四半期のノートパソコンの売上は好調を維持しており、第2四半期も続きます。しかし、下半期まで売上が持続する可能性は低く、市場全体としては微増にとどまる見込みです。

2022年後半は、政府と公共事業の購入の遅れから好調な売れ行きを示し、それが2023年前半に持ち越されました。2023年後半～2024年に市場が修正され、高耐久ノートパソコンの需要が減少し、その後2025年～2027年に徐々に増加すると予測されています。地域および世界の景気後退の兆しは、バイヤーにとって押し引きとなり、バイヤーは支出を控えめにする一方で、運用性能を向上させる投資を優先すると予測されます。後者の動向は、全体的なTCOが低い高耐久カテゴリに有利に働く見込みです。

最近のデバイス動向は、ユーザビリティとエンドユーザーエクスペリエンスの優先を強調しています。フルラグ2-in-1は、ノートパソコンの使用感を維持しつつ、より軽量で持ち運びやすいデバイスを求めるワークフローに人気の選択肢であり続けています。全体の頑丈な品質が、ビジネスおよびコンシューマーグレードのデバイスの進歩を促し、公共事業などの分野でタブレットの顧客を引き付けています。企業における焦点は、完全な耐久性から最適な機能性へと移行しつつあります。耐久性に関する基準が高まる中、重量と性能を最適化したデバイスは、エンタープライズ市場でもっとも有利なポジションを獲得すると予測されます。

主な調査結果

高耐久ノートパソコン市場は、2022年に成長を記録しました。2-in-1とクラムシェルの高成長は、2020年～2021年のパンデミックとサプライチェーン関連の遅延による需要の枯渇に起因します。

2-in-1デバイスの売上拡大とクラムシェルカテゴリの市場修正により、フルラグ市場はセミラグ市場よりも速いペースで成長します。2022年のセミラグの販売急増は、そのフォームファクターの5年間のCAGRを引き下げますが、2022年のフルラグのクラムシェル（南北アメリカ）の落ち込みは、世界の成長率を押し上げます。

南北アメリカは現在、セミラグおよびフルラグのノートパソコンの最大の市場であり、2027年までその地位を維持します。

高耐久ノートパソコンは今後も政府部門でもっとも多く使用され、世界の販売台数が伸びます。

OEMは2020年～2021年のサプライチェーンの混乱から回復しましたが、市場は2023年までに売上が減少し、修正される可能性が高いです。契約の遅れが2022年の市場急騰の一因であり、OEMの戦略は今後数四半期、売上減少の可能性から慎重になると思われます。

モバイル労働力プールの力学の変化により、デバイスの使いやすさがより重視されるようになっています。バイヤーは、従業員の使用を容易にするデバイスを求め、企業のデバイスをユーザーのパーソナルデバイスエクスペリエンスに近づけるために何らかの努力をすると予想されます。

Windows 11がAndroidアプリを実行できるようになったことで、Android OSの長年のユーザーを引き抜く可能性があります。VDCは長年にわたってWindowsからAndroidへの緩やかなシフトを観測してきましたが、Windows 11の相互運用性は、WindowsからAndroidへのシフトの動向を遅らせ、場合によっては逆転させます。

当レポートでは、世界の高耐久ノートパソコン・2-in-1デタッチャブルコンピューター市場について調査分析し、市場機会、市場規模の推計と予測、ベンダープロファイルなどを提供しています。

目次

エグゼクティブサマリー

世界市場の概要

• アメリカ市場の概要
• 欧州・中東・アフリカ市場の概要
• アジア太平洋市場の概要

比較予測：部門別

高耐久ノートパソコンの動向

• 車両への取り付け
• 耐久性
• サプライチェーン
• 使いやすさ
• Windows 11 OSへの移行

付録

競合情勢

• ベンダープロファイル

VDC Researchについて

レポートの図表

INSIDE THIS REPORT:

This report covers the overall market opportunity for rugged clamshell notebooks and 2-in-1 devices supporting enterprise and government Line-of-Business (LoB) applications. Analysis includes market sizing and forecasts for rugged notebooks, broken into fully and semi-rugged categories and including additional analysis on rugged 2-in-1 detachable devices. The market opportunity for devices is segmented by region, industry, and application environment. Additional trends around ruggedness, wireless functionality, OS, display size and other capabilities are examined. Vendors are profiled at the end of the report.

WHAT QUESTIONS ARE ADDRESSED?

• What is the market outlook for rugged notebooks used in enterprise and government mobility applications?

• What is the relative opportunity for rugged notebooks by regional market, industry, and application?

• How do rugged notebook use cases and outlooks vary by region?

• How do applications of rugged notebooks vary across vertical markets?

• How do evolving priorities within LoB applications impact the market reach of 2-in-1 devices vis à vis clamshell notebooks?

• What major trends have emerged around rugged notebook design, OS, connectivity, and display?

• How are OEMs navigating uncertainties around recession and faltering demand?

• What new solutions are challenging the norms of the rugged notebook market?

WHO SHOULD READ THIS REPORT?

This report targets marketing, sales, and product development decision-makers within mobile device OEMs, as well as enterprise and government mobility solution providers and IT leaders responsible for the evaluation and purchase of devices for their government or enterprise agencies.

VENDORS COVERED IN THIS REPORT:

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:

After flat performance in 2021, the rugged notebook had record sales in 2022, with double-digit growth across form factors. Surging 2022 sales were due in part to unfulfilled demand during the supply chain challenges of 2020- 2021, and to the focus shift from equipment for remote workers to rugged devices for frontline applications. With component shortages no longer a challenge for OEMs and buyers moving forward with delayed contracts, the market has seen unprecedented sales. Notebook sales in Q1 2023 have remained strong and promise to continue into Q2. However, it is less likely that sales will persist into the second half of the year, and the market should increase only slightly overall.

This report includes data and forecasts for the rugged notebook market as it stands in 2023. It is inclusive of semirugged clamshells, fully-rugged clamshells, and fully-rugged 2-in-1 detachable devices. VDC is including all 2-in-1 sales and volumes in this report in acknowledgment of their complementarity to the sector: 2-in-1s offer the desired features of fully-rugged clamshell notebooks at a lower cost and lighter weight, thus drawing some rugged clamshell buyers away from the conventional form factor.

Delays in government and public service purchasing led the second half of 2022 to have strong sales, which carried into the first half of 2023. VDC anticipates a market correction in late 2023-2024, with rugged notebook demand dropping and then growing gradually from 2025-2027. Regional and global signs of recession will be a push and pull for buyers, who will be more conservative with spending but will also prioritize any investments that improve operational performance. The latter trend will work to the rugged category's advantage, with its lower overall TCO.

Recent device trends highlight prioritization of usability and the end user experience. The fully-rugged 2-in-1 remains a popular choice for workflows where users want a lighter, more portable device while maintaining the notebook experience. The overall robust quality of rugged has driven advancements in business and consumer grade devices, which have attracted tablet customers in areas like the utilities industry. Focus in enterprise is shifting from full ruggedness to optimal functionality. With rising standards around durability, devices that optimize device weight and performance will be best positioned in the enterprise market.

KEY FINDINGS:

The rugged notebook market experienced record growth in 2022. High growth in 2-in-1s and clamshells stemmed from pent-up demand from pandemic and supply chain related delays of 2020-2021.

The fully-rugged market will grow at a faster rate than the semi-rugged market , due to growing sales of 2-in-1 devices and clamshell category market correction. 2022 spikes in semi-rugged sales will pull the 5-year CAGR lower for that form factor, while a 2022 dip in fully-rugged clamshells (Americas) will inflate the global growth rate.

The Americas are currently the largest market for semi- and fully-rugged notebook computers , and will maintain their position through 2027.

The average selling price (ASP) of rugged notebooks varies across regions, ruggedness levels, and form factors. Globally, ASPs are expected to decline slightly across rugged clamshells and remain level for 2-in-1s. Both trends take shape amid irregularities in 2021-2021, where some regions saw price spikes and drops.

Rugged notebooks are and will continue to be used most by the government sector , growing in global sales volume.

OEMs have recovered from supply chain disruptions of 2020-2021 , but the market will likely correct with a drop in sales in 2023. Delays to contracts were partially responsible for the market spike of 2022, and OEM strategy will be cautious in the coming quarters as they navigate possible sales decline.

Shifting mobile labor pool dynamics have put greater emphasis on device usability. Buyers will seek devices that facilitate employee use, and will make some effort to imitate a user's personal device experience onto a company device.

Windows 11's ability to run Android apps may poach long-time users of that OS. While VDC has observed a gradual shift from Windows to Android over the years, Windows 11's interoperability will slow and in some cases reverse the trend of Windows to Android shift.

ABOUT THE AUTHORS:

Emily Gove

Emily is a market research professional within VDC's Enterprise Mobility practice, supporting syndicated research and custom projects. She brings experience integrating new technologies into logistics, sales, and inventory management spaces, and has a research background in the crosscultural consumption of various products. Emily holds a BA in Anthropology and Gender Studies from the University of Richmond and an MA in Anthropology from SOAS University of London.

David Krebs

David has more than ten years experience covering the markets for enterprise and government mobility solutions, wireless data communication technologies and automatic data-capture research and consulting. David focuses on identifying the key drivers and enablers in the adoption of mobile and wireless solutions among mobile workers in the extended enterprise. David's consulting and strategic advisory experience is far reaching and includes technology and market opportunity assessments, technology penetration and adoption enablers, partner profiling and development, new product development and M&A due diligence support. David has extensive primary market research management and execution experience to support market sizing and forecasting, total cost of ownership (TCO), comparative product performance evaluation, competitive benchmarking and end user requirements analysis. David is a graduate of Boston University (BSBA).

Table of Contents

Executive Summary

• Key Findings

Global Market Overview

• Americas Market Overview
• EMEA Market Overview
• APAC Market Overview

Comparative Forecast by Sector

Rugged Notebook Trends

• Vehicle Mounting
• Ruggedness
• Supply Chain
• Usability
• Shift to Windows 11 OS

Appendix

Competitive Landscape

• Vendor Profiles

About VDC Research

Report Exhibits

• Exhibit 1: Global Revenues for Fully- and Semi-Rugged Notebooks
• Exhibit 2: Global Vendor Unit Shipments of Rugged Notebooks
• Exhibit 3: Global Unit Shipments of Fully- and Semi-Rugged Notebooks
• Exhibit 4: Unit Shipments of Rugged Notebooks by Region
• Exhibit 5: Global Average Selling Price of Fully- and Semi-Rugged Notebooks
• Exhibit 6: Americas Fully- and Semi-Rugged Notebook Revenues
• Exhibit 7: Americas Fully- and Semi-Rugged Notebook Unit Shipments
• Exhibit 8: Americas Average Selling Price of Fully- and Semi-Rugged Notebooks
• Exhibit 9: Americas Vendor Shipment Volume
• Exhibit 10: EMEA Fully- and Semi-Rugged Notebook Revenues
• Exhibit 11: EMEA Fully- and Semi-Rugged Notebook Unit Shipments
• Exhibit 12: EMEA Average Selling Price of Fully- and Semi-Rugged Notebooks
• Exhibit 13: EMEA Vendor Shipment Volume
• Exhibit 14: APAC Fully- and Semi-Rugged Notebook Revenues
• Exhibit 15: APAC Fully- and Semi-Rugged Notebook Unit Shipments
• Exhibit 16: APAC Average Selling Price of Fully- and Semi-Rugged Notebooks
• Exhibit 17: APAC Vendor Shipment Volume
• Exhibit 18: Global Semi-Rugged Clamshell Revenues by Sector
• Exhibit 19: Global Fully-Rugged Clamshell Revenues by Sector
• Exhibit 20: Global Fully-Rugged 2-in-1 Revenues by Sector
• Exhibit 21: Changes in Rugged Clamshell Revenue Year on Year
• Exhibit 22: Quarterly Variations in Rugged Notebook Unit Shipments
• Exhibit 23: Device Implementation Motivators
• Exhibit 24: Reasons for not Implementing Rugged Devices
• Exhibit 25: Rugged Notebook Devices by Vendor
• Exhibit 26: 2-in-1 Vendor Shipments Share by Region