世界のバッテリー需給の見通し：自動車OEM別（～2035年）

キャズムは、近年の電気自動車市場の成長停滞を象徴する言葉となっています。

このキャズムの原因についてはさまざまな仮説があります。EVのアーリーアダプターがすでに購入を終えており、新規需要の鈍化につながっているという指摘もあります。また、昨冬の北米の大寒波によるEV走行距離の大幅な減少が原因という説もあります。さらに、度重なる火災事故への懸念も、EVに対する消費者の不安を助長しています。

当レポートでは、世界の電気自動車市場について調査分析し、主要OEMの電気自動車生産とバッテリー供給の詳細な予測を提供しています。また、これらOEMの電気自動車に使用される二次電池の供給源を、地域別、主要バッテリーサプライヤー別、正極材料別、形状別に予測しています。

目次

第1章 世界の乗用EV市場の見通し

• 世界の乗用車電化率の見通し
• 世界の電気乗用車の売上の見通し：地域別
• 世界の電気乗用車用バッテリー需要の見通し：地域別
• 世界の電気乗用車とバッテリー需要の見通し：地域別
• 世界の電気乗用車用バッテリー需要：正極材料別

第2章 世界の主要OEMのEV市場の見通し

• 世界の主要OEMの電気乗用車の売上の見通し
• 世界の主要OEMの電気乗用車の売上比率の見通し
• 世界の主要OEMの電気乗用車の売上の予測：メーカー別
• 世界の主要OEMの電気自動車用バッテリー需要の見通し

第3章 世界の主要OEMのEV市場の見通し：メーカー別

• Tesla
• VW (Volkswagen)
• HKMC (Hyundai-Kia)
• Toyota
• R-N-M (Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi Alliance)
• Stellantis
• Ford
• GM
• BMW
• Mercedes-Benz
• Geely
• Honda
• BYD

Chasm has become a term symbolizing the recent stagnation in the growth of the electric vehicle market.

There are various hypotheses regarding the causes of this chasm. Some suggest that early adopters of EVs have already made their purchases, leading to a slowdown in new demand. Others attribute it to the significant reduction in EV driving range caused by the severe cold wave in North America last winter. Additionally, concerns about recurring fire incidents have contributed to consumer apprehension about EVs.

So, how will the market ultimately grow? In response to this question, SNE Research released its "<2024.2H> Global Electric Vehicle Market and Battery Supply-Demand Outlook (~2035)" last October.

However, industry stakeholders have requested more specific market forecasts, including expectations on which battery suppliers major OEMs will choose, changes in battery form factors, and the usage proportion of major cathode materials.

SNE Research has published this report to address these various industry inquiries. The newly released "<2025> Global Battery Supply and Demand Outlook by Automotive OEM (~2035)" provides a detailed forecast of electric vehicle production and battery supply for major OEMs, including Tesla, Volkswagen, Hyundai Motor Group, Toyota, Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi, Stellantis, Ford, GM, BMW, Mercedes-Benz, Geely (the parent company of Volvo's passenger car division), and BYD. The report categorizes and forecasts the supply sources of secondary batteries used in these OEMs' electric vehicles by region (North America, Europe, China, and other markets), major battery suppliers, cathode materials (NCx/LFP), and form factors (prismatic, pouch, cylindrical).

The regional and cathode material data for the overall OEM electrification outlook is based on the figures from the "<2024.2H> Global Electric Vehicle Market and Battery Supply-Demand Outlook (~2035)" report, released in October.

We hope that this report, which provides a detailed forecast of major car makers leading the future electric vehicle market, will be valuable to industry stakeholders.

Table of Contents

1. Global Passenger EV Market Outlook

• 1.1. Global Passenger Vehicle Electrification Rate Outlook
• 1.2. Global Electric Passenger Vehicle Sales Outlook by Region
• 1.3. Global Battery Demand Outlook for Electric Passenger Vehicles by Region
• 1.4. Global Electric Passenger Vehicle and Battery Demand Outlook by Region
• 1.5. Global Battery Demand for Electric Passenger Vehicles by Cathode Material

2. Global Major OEM EV Market Outlook

• 2.1. Global Major OEM Electric Passenger Vehicle Sales Outlook
• 2.2. Global Major OEM Electric Passenger Vehicle Sales Proportion Outlook
• 2.3. Global Major OEM Electric Passenger Vehicle Sales Forecast by Manufacturer
• 2.4. Global Major OEM Battery Demand Outlook for Electric Passenger Vehicles

3. Global Major OEM EV Market Outlook by Manufacturer

• 3.1. Tesla
• 3.2. VW(Volkswagen)
• 3.3. HKMC(Hyundai-Kia)
• 3.4. Toyota
• 3.5. R-N-M(Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi Alliance)
• 3.6. Stellantis
• 3.7. Ford
• 3.8. GM
• 3.9. BMW
• 3.10. Mercedes-Benz
• 3.11. Geely
• 3.12. Honda
• 3.13. BYD