食品市場の見通し（2023年）：インフレ、持続可能性、利便性、その他

食品市場におけるインフレに起因する価格上昇は、2022年の中核的な動向であり、2023年も継続しています。供給上の課題、原材料やエネルギー価格の上昇、人件費の上昇が重なり、サプライヤー、小売業者、消費者が試されています。このため、消費者は、外食の価格との比較であれ、日常的な食料品との比較であれ、価値を求めるようになり、すべてのカテゴリーでプライベートブランドが急増しています。さらに、植物性食品、クリーンラベル、持続可能なサプライチェーン、リサイクル可能な包装や減量包装などが主要動向として挙げられ、食品の買い物客は持続可能性を再び高い優先順位に置くようになってきています。

当レポートでは、世界の食品市場について調査し、成長機会と次なる課題に焦点を当て、数十年にわたる食品市場の展望と分析をまとめています。小売業者、サービスプロバイダー、卸売業者、食品加工業者、包装業者、投資家が食品市場に関するビジネス上の意思決定を行う際の指針となるような予測や提言を提供しています。

目次

第1章 エグゼクティブサマリー

第2章 COVID-19の消費者への影響

第3章 概要

第4章 食品の動向

第5章 シリアル

• 売上見通し
• 市場は130億米ドル以上に拡大
• カテゴリ売上
• 主な機会

第6章 チョコレートキャンディ

• 売上見通し
• 市場は350億米ドル以上に拡大
• セグメント別売上
• 主な機会

第7章 クッキー

• 売上見通し
• 180億米ドルに近づく市場
• 主な機会

第8章 焼きたてパン

• 売上見通し
• 市場は220億米ドル以上に拡大
• セグメント別売上
• 主な機会

第9章 フレッシュパッケージサラダ

• 売上見通し
• 売上が90億米ドル以上に拡大
• セグメント別売上
• 主な機会

第10章 冷凍ディナー/前菜

• 売上見通し
• 市場は174億米ドルに増加
• カテゴリ別売上
• 主な機会

第11章 冷凍ピザ

• 売上見通し
• 90億米ドルを超える市場
• 消費者洞察
• 主な機会

第12章 アイスクリームとフローズンノベルティ

• 売上見通し
• 190億米ドルに近づく市場
• カテゴリーとセグメント別売上
• 消費者洞察
• 主な機会

第13章 ミール・スナックバー

• 売上見通し
• 100億米ドルの市場
• カテゴリー別売上
• 消費者洞察
• 主な機会

第14章 肉と鶏肉

• 売上見通し
• 1,450億米ドルを超える市場
• カテゴリーとセグメント別売上
• 消費者洞察
• 主な機会

第15章 ナチュラルチーズとスペシャルティチーズ

• 売上見通し
• 市場は230億米ドル以上に拡大
• カテゴー別売上
• 主な機会

第16章 塩味スナック

• 売上見通し
• 480億米ドルを超える市場
• セグメント別売上
• 消費者洞察
• 主な機会

第17章 スープ

• 売上見通し
• 市場規模は120億米ドル近くに拡大
• 主な機会

第18章 ヨーグルト

• 売上見通し
• 120億米ドルを超える市場
• カテゴリー別売上
• 消費者洞察
• 主な機会

Most major packaged food categories are mature and rely primarily on population growth, leaving food marketers with the challenge of bringing something new to the table. Opportunities abound for companies that invest in new product launches, ingredient changes, and different marketing tactics to appeal to changing consumer preferences. Some trends in 2023 - like inflation -- are continuations of 2022 issues while others - like sustainability -- are trends that are resurfacing in a bigger way again after having taking a back seat to other concerns in the height of the pandemic.

Inflation-fueled higher prices are a core trend from 2022 that is continuing in 2023, as supply challenges, higher ingredient and energy prices, and rising labor costs combine to test suppliers, retailers, and consumers. This has led to consumers seeking value, whether that means in comparison to the price of dining out or in comparison to routine grocery items, with private label options seeing surges across all categories. Additionally, food shoppers are increasingly placing sustainability at a higher priority level again, with plant-based options, clean labels, sustainable supply chains, and recyclable and reduced packaging as key trends. Furthermore, shoppers are presenting preferences with contradictions as they are looking for indulgence, but better-for-you versions, and chef-inspired menus, but with convenient preparation.

With a focus on growth opportunities and "what's next" - along with bringing decades of food and beverage market perspective and analysis to the table - U.S. Food Market Outlook 2023: Inflation, Sustainability, Convenience, & Other Food Trends is packed with actionable insights about consumer trends, behavior, and motivations. This report delivers predictions and recommendations designed to guide retailers, service providers, wholesalers, food processors, packaging firms, and investors in making business decisions about the food market.

Table of Content

CHAPTER 1: EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

FOOD RETAIL SALES FORECAST

FOOD TRENDS

Private Label Surges Due to Inflation

CEA-Indoor Farming

Plant-Based Alternatives

Non-Plant-Based Alternatives

Mindful Indulgence

Convenient At-Home Restaurant Quality

Figure 1-1 Food Market Trends

SCOPE

METHODOLOGY

CHAPTER 2: COVID-19 EFFECTS ON CONSUMERS

HIGHLIGHTS

CONCERNS ABOUT COVID-19 EXPOSURE REMAIN

Table 2-1 Coronavirus Health Concerns: "I am concerned about the…", 2020-2022 (% of respondents)

IMPACT ON FOOD

Concerns About High Prices and Shortages

Table 2-2 Concerns about Rising Prices by Product Category, 2021, 2022 (percent of consumers)

Table 2-3 Concerns about Rising Food Prices, 2021-2022 (percent of consumers)

Concerns About Shortages

Table 2-4 Concerns about Shortages by Selected Product Category, 2021-2022 (percent of consumers)

Table 2-5 Consumer Concerns about Food Shortages, 2021-2022 (percent of consumers)

Consumers Still Stockpiling

Table 2-6 "If a food item is on sale, I buy multiple units to stock up." Agree Completely, 2012-2022 (percent of US adults)

Table 2-7 Separate freezer owned or purchased in last 12 months, 2012-2022 (percent of US households)

EATING PATTERNS: WHAT & WHEN

Figure 2-1. Pandemic-Era Eating Habits: What & When, 2022 (% of respondents)

Eating Comfort Foods

Figure 2-2. Pandemic-Era Eating Patterns: Eating Comfort Foods by Gender, Age, Income, & Work From Home Status, 2022 (% of respondents)

Eating Fresh Produce

Figure 2-3. Pandemic-Era Eating Patterns: Eating Fresh Produce by Gender, Age, Income, & Work From Home Status, 2022 (% of respondents)

Eating Processed Foods

Figure 2-4. Pandemic-Era Eating Patterns: Eating Processed Foods by Gender, Age, Income, & Work From Home Status, 2022 (% of respondents)

Eating Snacks & Treats

Figure 2-5. Pandemic-Era Eating Patterns: Eating Snacks & Treats by Gender, Age, Income, & Work From Home Status, 2022 (% of respondents)

Pandemic-Era Eating Frequency

Figure 2-6. Pandemic-Era Eating Patterns: Eating Frequency by Gender, Age, Income, & Work From Home Status, 2022 (% of respondents)

HOME COOKING REMAINS RELATIVELY HIGH

Table 2-8 Home Cooking Behaviors, Agree Completely, 2012-2022 (percent of US adults)

Table 2-9 Food Prepared From Scratch In Last 6 Months, 2012-2022 (percent of US households, and percent of households that make food from scratch)

• BOOSTED ONLINE GROCERY SHOPPING ACTIVITY CONTINUING THROUGH

Activity Spiked in 2020 during the Early Part of the Pandemic

Table 2-10 Coronavirus Food Purchase Habits: "Because of the coronavirus, I am…", 2020-2021 (percent of consumers)

• Many Have Continued Ordering More Groceries Online in 2021 and

Figure 2-7. Grocery Ordering Habits Continue to Be Affected by the Pandemic, 2021-2022 (percent of consumers)

Use of Meal Kit Delivery Services

Figure 2-8. Changes in Ordering Meal Kits during the Pandemic, 2021-2022 (percent of consumers)

• EFFECTS ON WORK HAVE CONTINUED IN 2021 AND

Figure 2-9. Coronavirus Changes to Work Patterns, 2021-2022 (percent of consumers)

• And Continue in

Table 2-11 "Are You Set Up to Do Your Usual Paid Work From Home - Whether Ordinarily, Part-Time, or When Necessary?" by Gender, Age, Income, & Children at Home, 2021-2023 (% of respondents who work full- or part-time)

Changes in Work From Home Frequency

Table 2-12. Changes in Work From Home Frequency, 2020 & 2022 (% of employed respondents who are set up to work from home & said yes)

CHAPTER 3: OVERVIEW

FOOD RETAIL SALES FORECAST

Table 3-1 US Retail Dollar Sales by Top Food Categories, 2017, 2022-2027P (million dollars and percent)

Table 3-2 US Retail Dollar Sales by Top Food Categories, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022 (million dollars and percent)

Table 3-3 US Retail Dollar and Volume Sales by Top Food Categories, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022 (percent change)

DISTRIBUTION TRENDS

E-Commerce and Grocery Delivery

Table 3-4 Purchased Groceries Over Internet in Last 30 days, 2012-2022 (percent of US adults)

Faster Home Delivery

Autonomous Delivery

Drone Delivery

In-Home Delivery

On-Demand Delivery

Instacart Helps Retailers Drive Sales, Save Customers Money

SNACKING

Frequency of Snacking and Reasons for Snacking

Figure 3-1 Frequency of and Reasons for Snacking, 2022 (percent of consumers)

Snacking Highest in the Afternoon

Figure 3-2 When Snacks and Meals Are Eaten, 2022 (percent of consumers)

FRUIT MOST PREFERRED IN MORNING, SAVORY/SALTY AND SWEET TREATS AT NIGHT

Figure 3-3 Preferred Snacks in Morning and Evening/Late Night, 2022 (percent of consumers that snacks in morning or evening)

HOME MEAL KITS

HOME MEAL DELIVERY

CHAPTER 4: FOOD TRENDS

CEA-INDOOR FARMING

PLANT-BASED ALTERNATIVES

• One-Fourth of Consumers Claim to Primarily Follow a Flexitarian Diet in

Table 4-1. Prevalence of Plant-Forward Eating Habits/Diet Control, 2019 - 2022 (percent of consumers)

Plant-Based Meat and Poultry Alternatives

Blends

Plant-Based, Dairy-Free Alternatives

Ice Cream

Yogurt

Cheese

NON-PLANT-BASED ALTERNATIVES

Cultivated Meat Approaches Commercialization in US

Other Alternatives

Animal-Free Dairy

EMBRACE ESG

Packaging

Figure 4-1 Priority of Selected Food Packaging Characteristics, 2023 (percent of consumers)

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HEALTHIER-FOR-YOU

Figure 4-2 Priority of Selected Food Characteristics, 2022 (percent of consumers)

Table 4-2 "I Buy Food Labeled As…", 2017-2022 (percent of US adults)

Natural

"Natural" Labels Most Impactful When Grocery Shopping

Figure 4-3 Influential Labels When Purchasing Food, 2022 (percent of consumers)

Figure 4-4 Reasons for Seeking "Natural" Food Labels, 2022 (percent of consumers)

Reduced or Zero Sugar

Avoiding or Limiting Sugar Intake

Figure 4-5 Avoiding or Limiting Sugars, 2022 (percent of consumers)

Reasons for Avoiding or Limiting Sugar Intake

Figure 4-6 Reasons for Avoiding or Limiting Sugars, 2022 (percent of consumers)

Sugar Continues to Be Preferred Over Low/No-Calorie Sweeteners

Figure 4-7 Preferences for Sweeteners, 2022 (percent of consumers)

Reasons for Avoiding or Limiting Sugar Intake

Figure 4-6 Reasons for Avoiding or Limiting Sugars, 2022 (percent of consumers)

Sugar Continues to Be Preferred Over Low/No-Calorie Sweeteners

Figure 4-7 Preferences for Sweeteners, 2022 (percent of consumers)

Table 4-3. Preferences for Sweetener Types, 2022 (percent of consumers)

Incorporating Vegetables

Table 4-4 Consumption Rates for Fresh Vegetables, 2012-2022 (percent of US households)

Diet-Friendly

Figure 4-8 Adherence to a Diet/Eating Pattern in the Past Year, 2018-2022 (percent of consumers)

Keto

Table 4-5 "Are you familiar with (heard of it and know what is involved in following it) any of the following diet and eating philosophies?" 2021 - 2022 (percent of consumers)

Gluten-Free

MINDFUL INDULGENCE

EXCITE THE SENSES

KID-FOCUSED

CONVENIENT AT-HOME RESTAURANT QUALITY

PARTNERSHIPS ADVANTAGEOUS

PRIVATE LABEL SURGES DUE TO INFLATION

Table 4-6 Selected Private Label Department Dollar Sales Growth, 2021-2022 (percent change)

Table 4-7 Consumption Rates in last 6 months for Selected Store Brand Foods, 2012-2022 (percent of US households that eat selected product)

CHAPTER 5: CEREAL

SALES OUTLOOK

• Market Increasing to Over $13 Billion in

Table 5-1 U. S. Cereal Market Retail Dollar Sales, 2017-2027 (in millions of dollars, millions of pounds, and percent change)

Category Sales

Figure 5-1 U. S. Cereal Category Retail Dollar Shares 2019, 2022 (percent)

Table 5-2 U. S. Cereal Market Retail Dollar Sales: By Category, 2016-2027 (in millions of dollars and percent change)

KEY OPPORTUNITIES

CHAPTER 6: CHOCOLATE CANDY

SALES OUTLOOK

• Market Increases to Over $35 Billion in

Table 6-1 U. S. Chocolate Candy Market Retail Dollar Sales, 2017-2027 (in millions of dollars, millions of pounds, and percent change)

Segment Sales

Figure 6-1 U. S. Chocolate Candy Category Retail Dollar Shares, 2022, 2027 (percent)

Table 6-2 U. S. Chocolate Candy Market Retail Dollar Sales: By Category, 2016-2027 (in millions of dollars and percent change)

KEY OPPORTUNITIES

CHAPTER 7: COOKIES

SALES OUTLOOK

• Market to Approach $18 Billion in

Table 7-1 U. S. Cookies Market Retail Dollar Sales, 2017-2027 (in millions of dollars, millions of pounds, and percent change)

KEY OPPORTUNITIES

CHAPTER 8: FRESH BREAD

SALES OUTLOOK

• Market Increasing to Over $22 Billion in

Table 8-1 U. S. Fresh Bread Market Retail Dollar Sales, 2017-2027 (in millions of dollars, millions of pounds, and percent change)

Segment Sales

Figure 8-1 U. S. Fresh Bread Category Retail Dollar Shares, 2019, 2022 (percent)

Table 8-2 U. S. Fresh Bread Market Retail Dollar Sales: By Category, 2016-2027 (in millions of dollars and percent change)

KEY OPPORTUNITIES

CHAPTER 9: FRESH PACKAGED SALADS

SALES OUTLOOK

• Fresh Packaged Salad Sales Increasing to Over $9 Billion in

Table 9-1 US Fresh Packaged Salads Retail Sales, 2017-2027 (million dollars, million pounds, and percent change)

Segment Sales

CONSUMER INSIGHTS

vi April 2023 © Packaged Facts

Packaged Salad Consumption Still Much Higher Than Pre-Pandemic Levels

Table 9-2 Consumption Rates for Packaged Fresh Salad and Fresh Produce, 2012-2022 (percent of households)

Packaged Salad Eaters Don't Consume That Often

Table 9-3 Packages of Packaged Fresh Salad Eaten in Last 30 Days, 2012-2022 (percent of US households that eat packaged fresh salad)

KEY OPPORTUNITIES

CEA-Indoor Farming

Convenient Restaurant Quality

Embrace ESG

CHAPTER 10: FROZEN DINNERS/ENTREES

SALES OUTLOOK

• Market Increasing to $17.4 Billion in

Table 10-1 U. S. Frozen Dinners/Entrees Market Retail Dollar Sales, 2017-2027 (in millions of dollars, millions of pounds, and percent change)

Category Sales

Figure 10-1 U. S. Frozen Dinners/Entrees Segment Retail Dollar Shares, 2019, 2027 (percent)

Table 10-2 U. S. Frozen Dinners/Entrees Market Retail Dollar Sales: By Segment, 2016-2027 (in millions of dollars and percent change)

KEY OPPORTUNITIES

CHAPTER 11: FROZEN PIZZA

SALES OUTLOOK

• Market to Exceed $9 Billion in

Table 11-1 US Frozen Pizza Retail Sales, 2017-2027 (million dollars, million pounds, and percent)

CONSUMER INSIGHTS

Only About Half of US Households Eat Frozen Pizza

Table 11-2 Consumption Rates for Frozen Pizza, 2012-2022 (percent of US households)

Frozen Pizzas Eaters Don't Eat Them That Often

Table 11-3 Packages of Frozen Pizza Eaten in Last 30 Days, 2012-2022 (percent of US households that eat frozen pizza)

KEY OPPORTUNITIES

Restaurant Quality at Home

Mindful Indulgence

Ultra-Indulgent

Excite the Senses

CHAPTER 12: ICE CREAM AND FROZEN NOVELTIES

SALES OUTLOOK

• Market to Approach $19 Billion in

Table 12-1 US Ice Cream and Frozen Novelties Retail Sales, 2017-2027 (million dollars, million units, and percent change)

Category and Segment Sales

Figure 12-1 US Ice Cream and Frozen Novelties Retail Value Shares by Segment, 2019, 2027 (percent)

Frozen Novelties Continue to Outperform Ice Cream

Table 12-2 US Ice Cream and Frozen Novelties Retail Dollar Sales: By Category & Segment, 2016-2027 (million dollars and percent)

CONSUMER INSIGHTS

Consumption Data at Odds With Sales Data

Table 12-3 Consumption Rates for Ice Cream, Novelties, and Packaged Frozen Yogurt, 2016-2022 (percent of US households)

Regular (Full-Fat) Ice Cream Overwhelmingly Preferred

Table 12-4 Types of Ice Cream/Gelato/Sherbet Eaten Most Often, 2016-2022 (percent of US households that eat ice cream/gelato/sherbet)

Ice Cream/Gelato/Sherbet Eaters Don't Consume Much

Table 12-5 Pints of Ice Cream/Gelato/Sherbet Eaten in Last 7 Days, 2016-2022 (percent of US households that eat ice cream/gelato/sherbet)

KEY OPPORTUNITIES

Excite the Senses

Reimagine Classics and Nostalgia

Mindful Indulgence

Dairy Alternatives

Animal-Free Dairy

Embrace ESG

CHAPTER 13: MEAL & SNACK BARS

SALES OUTLOOK

• Market at $10 Billion in

Table 13-1 US Meal & Snack Bars Retail Sales, 2017-2027 (million dollars, million pounds, and percent change)

Category Sales

Figure 13-1 US Meal & Snack Bars Retail Dollar Shares by Category, 2016, 2019, 2022 (percent)

Table 13-2 US Meal & Snack Bars Retail Sales: By Category, 2016-2027 (million dollars)

CONSUMER INSIGHTS

Some Consumption Data at Odds With Sales Data

Table 13-3 Consumption Rates for Breakfast/Cereal/Granola & Nutrition/Energy Bars, 2012-2022 (percent of households)

Heaviest-Consuming Snack Bar Group Expands

Table 13-4 Number of Breakfast/Cereal/Granola Bars Eaten in Last 30 Days, 2012-2022 (percent of US households that eat breakfast/cereal/granola bars)

Key Brand Differences

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Table 13-5 Consumption Rates for Selected Brands of Breakfast/Cereal/Granola & Nutrition/Energy Bars, 2012-2022 (percent of households that eat bars)

KEY OPPORTUNITIES

Mindful Indulgence

Healthier-For-You

Excite the Senses

Kid-Focused

Embrace ESG

CHAPTER 14: MEAT AND POULTRY

SALES OUTLOOK

• Market to Exceed $145 Billion in

Table 14-1 US Meat and Poultry Retail Sales, 2017-2027 (million dollars, million pounds, and percent change)

Category and Segment Sales

Meat Dominates Category Sales

Figure 14-1 US Meat and Poultry Category/Segment Retail Dollar Shares, 2021, 2022 (percent)

Table 14-2 US Meat and Poultry Market Retail Dollar Sales: By Category/Segment, 2016-2027 (million dollars and percent change)

CONSUMER INSIGHTS

• Consumption Down in

Table 14-3 Consumption Rates for Meat & Poultry, 2012-2022 (percent of households)

Fresh Overwhelming Preferred Over Frozen

Table 14-4 Consumption Rates for Fresh versus Frozen Meat & Poultry, 2012-2022 (percent of households that eats meat or poultry)

Trouble Holding Bacon and Sausage Pandemic Gains

Table 14-5 Consumption Rates for Selected Processed Meats and Poultry, 2012-2022 (percent of households)

KEY OPPORTUNITIES

Convenient Restaurant Quality

Excite the Senses

Plant-based Alternatives

Blends

Cultivated Meat Approaches Commercialization in US

Table 14-3 Activities of Selected Cultivated Meat Developers

Other Alternatives

Embrace ESG

CHAPTER 15: NATURAL AND SPECIALTY CHEESE

SALES OUTLOOK

• Market Increasing to over $23 Billion in

Table 15-1 U. S. Natural and Specialty Cheese Market Retail Dollar Sales, 2017-2027 (in millions of dollars, millions of pounds, and percent change)

Category Sales

Figure 15-1 U. S. Natural and Specialty Cheese Category Retail Dollar Shares, 2019, 2022 (percent)

Table 15-2 U. S. Natural and Specialty Cheese Market Retail Dollar Sales: By Category, 2016-2027 (in millions of dollars and percent change)

KEY OPPORTUNITIES

CHAPTER 16: SALTY SNACKS

SALES OUTLOOK

• Market to Exceed $48 Billion in

Table 16-1 U.S. Salty Snacks Retail Sales, 2017-2027 (million dollars, million pounds, and percent change)

Segment Sales

Potato Chips Losing Share in The Future

Figure 16-1 U.S. Salty Snack Retail Dollar Shares by Category, 2016, 2027 (percent)

Growth Driven by Non-Chip Salty Snacks

Table 16-2 U.S. Salty Snack Market Retail Dollar Sales: By Category, 2016-2027 (million dollars and percent change)

CONSUMER INSIGHTS

Other Snacks Gain but Potato Chips Still Most Preferred

Table 16-3 Consumption Rates for Selected Salty Snacks, 2012-2022 (percent of households)

Chip Eaters Don't Consume Much

Table 16-4 Bags of Potato Chips Eaten in Last 30 Days, 2012-2022 (percent of U.S. households that eat potato chips)

Table 16-5 Bags of Corn/Tortilla/Other Chips & Cheese Snacks Eaten in Last 30 Days, 2012-2022 (percent of U.S. households that eat corn/tortilla/other chips & cheese snacks)

KEY OPPORTUNITIES

Excite the Senses

Mindful Indulgence

Embrace ESG

CHAPTER 17: SOUP

SALES OUTLOOK

• Market Increasing to Nearly $12 Billion in

Table 17-1 U. S. Soup Market Retail Dollar Sales, 2017-2027 (in millions of dollars, millions of pounds/16oz. equivalents, and percent change)

KEY OPPORTUNITIES

CHAPTER 18: YOGURT

SALES OUTLOOK

• Market Over $12 Billion in

x April 2023 © Packaged Facts

Table 18-1 U.S. Yogurt Retail Sales, 2017-2027 (million dollars, million pints, and percent change)

Category Sales

Figure 18-1 U.S. Yogurt Retail Dollar Shares by Category, 2016, 2022, 2027 (percent)

Table 18-2 U.S. Yogurt Retail Dollar Sales: By Category, 2016-2027 (million dollars)

CONSUMER INSIGHTS

Yogurt Consumption Relatively Steady After Pandemic Boost

Table 18-3 Consumption Rates for Yogurt, 2012-2022 (percent of U.S. households)

Steady Increase in Regular (Full-Fat) Yogurt Consumption

Table 18-4 Types of Yogurt Eaten Most Often, 2012-2022 (percent of U.S. households that eat yogurt)

Yogurt with Fruit Most Popular But Declining

Table 18-5 Kinds of Yogurt Eaten Most Often, 2012-2022 (percent of U.S. households that eat yogurt)

Greatest Growth from Those Eating the Least

Table 18-6 Containers of Yogurt Eaten in Last 7 Days, 2012-2022 (percent of US households that eat yogurt)

KEY OPPORTUNITIES

Healthier-For-You

Dairy-Free and Plant-Based Alternatives

Increase Kids' Consumption

Excite the Senses

Continue Leveraging Snacking Trend

Embrace ESG