米国のクレジットカード市場の展望 (2023年)

クレジットカードは、パンデミックから脱却し、かつてないほど力強く成長しています。クレジットカードの普及率、利用頻度、決済額はいずれも過去最高を記録し、今後も決済額は増加すると予想されています。しかし、利用率の正常化と景気後退の見通し、BNPL (今すぐ買って後で払う) 方式との競争、主要な収入源に対する規制の監視など、多くの課題が待ち構えています。

当レポートでは、米国のクレジットカード市場の最新情勢と将来展望について分析し、市場全体の主な促進・抑制要因や、規制の整備状況、業界関係者 (提携カード/自社ブランドカード、発行銀行、決済ネットワークなど) の情勢、決済金額・件数などの動向見通し (2026年まで)、消費者の人口構造と選好パターン、といった情報を取りまとめてお届けいたします。

目次

エグゼクティブサマリー

マクロ動向

• 勢力の維持：家計の負債と支出の動向
• 支出は引き続き堅調
• クレジットカード決済が消費者決済手数料をリード
• デジタルエンゲージメントの強化
• 代替決済：ますます競争が激化する脅威

クレジットカード業界の促進要因

• 期待の正規化
• 米国のクレジットカード口座数 (四半期ベース)：成長の鈍化
• クレジットカードの申込件数：引き続き堅調に推移
• クレジットカードの残高・延滞件数の急増
• カードリボルビングの状況

クレジットカードの規制動向

• クレジットカードの利子：絶体絶命の危機？
• クレジットカード延滞料金：議論の焦点
• クレジットカード競合法：ネットワーク料金を圧迫する可能性
• CFPB：カードラインの減少の影響を研究

クレジットカード決済額の動向

• 汎用クレジットカード・デビットカード決済額の動向
• 汎用カード決済額の動向：消費者用 vs. 商業用
• 中小企業向けクレジットカード決済額：7,500億米ドルを超過

クレジットカードの利用動向：決済ネットワーク・発行銀行別

• 汎用クレジットカードの利用動向：ネットワーク別
• Chase：最大の発行銀行

特典・共同ブランド・自社ブランド：クレジットカードの利用動向

• 絶好調のクレジットカード
• クレジットカードの特典が世界を動かす
• 共同ブランドのクレジットカード：危機を突破
• 自社ブランドのクレジットカード：引き続き課題

クレジットカードのイノベーションの動向

• 旅行・エンターテイメントのポータルの力
• 信用アクセスの拡大
• デジタル決済サービスの加速化：取り残されたクレジットカード
• 非接触型カードの発行と普及

付録

Credit cards have come out of the pandemic stronger than ever: Adoption rates, usage frequency, and payment value have each reached new highs-and continued payment value growth is expected. But a host of challenges await, including usage normalization and the prospect of recession; buy now, pay later competition; and regulatory scrutiny of key revenue streams.

Packaged Facts' 2023 Credit Card Market Outlook report provides comprehensive guidance on trends shaping credit card growth-including co-branded and private label cards, bank issuers, and card networks-and forecasts payment value growth through 2026. More specifically, the report:

Trends and forecasts credit card payment value by major payment network, including credit cards, debit cards, consumer credit cards, and small business credit cards.

Analyzes credit card usage trends by payment network, including standard, signature, small business, and other card types, with demographic analysis-and credit card usage trends by bank issuer, with demographic analysis.

Analyzes reward card trends, including share of card spend overall and type of reward earned (cash, points, miles).

Trends co-branded and private label credit card usage by card type/brand, with demographic analysis.

Trends and analyzes household debt and spending behavior, including loan delinquencies, the debt service ratio, active credit card users, share of consumer payment volume and value made by payment method, and general-purpose credit card payment value share of consumer expenditures.

Trends and analyzes important credit card metrics, including account growth rates and application rates, future application intention, outstanding credit card balances, share of consumers who revolve their credit card balances.

Identifies and analyzes credit card regulation pain points, including interest, late fees, and merchant fees.

Analyzes credit card innovation trends, including travel and entertainment portals, expanding credit access; trends digital payment service usage by Digital wallet, with demographic analysis; and analyzed contactless payment usage for digital wallets and cards, with demographic analysis.

Table of Content

Executive Summary

Scope of Report

Report Methodology

Market Overview

Macro Trends

Credit Card Industry Drivers

Credit Card Regulation Trends

Credit Card Payment Value Trends

Credit Card Usage Trends by Payment Network and Bank Issuer

Rewards, Co-Branded, and Private Label Credit Card Usage Trends

Credit Card Innovation Trends

Macro Trends

Staying Strong: Household Debt and Spending Trends

Household Debt Balances Above Pre-Pandemic Levels by $2.4 Trillion

Table Household Debt, by Type, with Quarterly and Annual Percentage Change, Q3 2022 ($billions)

Delinquency Rates on Current Debt Rise

Table Flow into Serious Delinquency (90 days or more delinquent), Q3 2021 vs. Q3 2022 (% of individuals seriously delinquent)

But Household Debt Service Ratio Remains Well Below Great Recession Levels

But Spending Remains Robust

Card-Based Spending Remains Strong

Travel Spending Passes Pre-Pandemic Levels

Credit Card Payments Lead the Consumer Payment Charge

Cards Are More Prevalently Used Than Cash

• Table Percentage of US Consumers Using a Payment Instrument In the Past 30 Days, by Instrument,

Consumers Use Credit Cards For More Than One-Quarter Of Their Payments

• Table Number of Payments Made per U.S. Consumer During October, by Payment Instrument, 2016 -
• Table Percentage Share of Payments Made per U.S. Consumer During October, by Payment Instrument, 2016 -

Credit Card Dollar Share Of Consumer Payments Surpasses Debit

• Table Dollar Value of Payments Made per U.S. Consumer During October, by Payment Instrument, 2016 -

Table Percentage Share of Dollar Value of Payments Made per U.S. Consumers During October, by Payment Instrument, 2016-2021

General-Purpose Credit Cards Pick Up Consumer Spending Share

Table U.S. General-Purpose Credit Card Payment Value vs. Personal Consumer Expenditures, 2017 - 2022 ($billions)

Digital Engagement Strengthens

Online/Remote Payments Share On The Rise

• Table Percentage Share of Purchases and P2P Payments Made In-Person Vs. Online/Remote, 2016 -

Alternative Payments: An Increasingly Competitive Threat

• BNPL Expected To Grow at 23.1% CAGR from 2022 to

Putting Credit Card Issuers' Volumes And Profits Under Threat

Credit Card Issuers Adopt Payment Flexibility Features To Adapt

Credit Card Industry Drivers

Expect Normalization

U.S. Quarterly Credit Card Account Growth Plateaus

Credit Card Application Trends Remain Strong

Application Rates Soar Above Pandemic Lows

High-FICO Skew

Future Application Intention Bodes Well for Demand

• Credit Card Balances and Delinquencies Jump in

The Card Revolver Situation

Consumer revolving behavior

Table Credit Card Users: Whether Balance Typically Carried: Consumer Demographics: Never/Rarely, Sometimes, Usually/Always, Spring 2021, Fall 2021, and Spring 2022 (percentage share)

Credit Card Revolving Behavior: Demographics

Table Credit Card Users: Whether Balance Typically Carried: Consumer Demographics: Never/Rarely, Sometimes, Usually/Always, 2022 (percentage share)

Credit Card Regulation Trends

Credit card interest on the chopping block?

Credit card late fees in the crosshairs

Credit Card Competition Act could pressure network fees

CFPB studies the impact of card line decreases

Credit Card Payment Value Trends

General-Purpose Credit Card and Debit Card Payment Value Trends

Credit card payment value share holds steady

Explosive 2022 credit card growth

Table U.S. General-Purpose Credit Card and Debit Card Payment Value, 2018 - 2022 ($billions)

And record merchant fee revenue

General-purpose credit card and debit card payment value forecast

Table U.S. General-Purpose Credit Card and Debit Card Payment Value, 2022 - 2026 ($billions)

Table U.S. General-Purpose Credit Card and Debit Card Payment Value, by Network, 2018 - 2022 ($billions)

• Table U.S. General-Purpose Credit Card and Debit Card Payment Value Share, by Network, 2018 -

General-Purpose Payment Value Trends: Consumer vs. Commercial

Consumer credit card payment value share grows

Table U.S. General-Purpose Credit Card Payment Value Share, Consumer vs. Commercial, 2018 - 2022 ($billions)

Visa: consumer and commercial consumer credit card payment value leader

Table U.S. General-Purpose Credit Card Payment Value, Consumer vs. Commercial, by Network, 2018 -2022 ($billions)

Table U.S. General-Purpose Credit Card Payment Value Share, Consumer vs. Commercial, by Network 2018-2022

Small Business Credit Card Payment Value Surpasses $750 Billion

Visa small business credit cards increase lead over American Express

Table U.S. General-Purpose Small Business Credit Card Payment Value Share, by Network, 2017 - 2021 ($billions)

Credit Card Usage Trends by Payment Network and Bank Issuer

General-Purpose Credit Card Usage Trends, By Network

Trending in the right direction

• Table General-Purpose Credit Card Usage Rates by Network: Have in Own Name, Spring 2021, Fall 2021, and Spring
• Table General-Purpose Credit Card Usage Rates by Network Card Type, Spring 2021, Fall 2021, and Spring
• Table Visa Credit Card Usage Rates by Card Type, Spring 2021, Fall 2021, and Spring
• Table Mastercard Credit Card Usage Rates by Card Type, Spring 2021, Fall 2021, and Spring
• Table American Express and Discover Credit Card Usage Rates by Card Type, Spring 2021, Fall 2021, and Spring

General-Purpose Credit Cards Demographics by Network

Table Credit Card Ownership Rates, by Consumer Demographic: Visa, Mastercard, American Express, and Discover, 2022 (percent of adults who have a credit card in their own name)

Chase Tops Bank Issuers

More than a quarter of U.S. adults have at least one Chase-branded credit card

• Table Credit Card Usage Rates by Bank Issuer, 2018 -

Credit Card Ownership Demographics Among Major Issuers

Table Credit Card Ownership Rates, by Consumer Demographic: Leading Financial Institutions, 2022 (percent of adults who have a credit card in their own name)

• Table Credit Card Usage Rates by Bank Issuer and Generation,
• Table Credit Card Usage Rates by Bank Issuer and Race/Ethnicity,

Rewards, Co-Branded, and Private Label Credit Card Usage Trends

Credit Cards Are On A Roll

Taking a bite out of cash

Usage penetration surpasses pre-pandemic levels

• Table Credit Card Usage Rates by Type: Have in Own Name, Spring 2021, Fall 2021, and Spring

Half of credit card users have at least three cards

• Table Number of Credit Cards in Own Name, Spring 2021, Fall 2021, and Spring
• Table Number of Credit Cards in Own Name: Share, Spring 2021, Fall 2021, and Spring

Credit Card Rewards Make the World Go Round

Rewards cards generate 90% of general-purpose card spend

Deep subprime scorers are on the bandwagon

New redemption innovations

Sprucing up travel and entertainment rewards and perks

Cash is King

Cash-back cards also trump points and miles cards on adoption

• Table Rewards Credit Card Usage Rates by Reward Type, 2021 -

Cash for crypto?

Crypto cards

Co-Branded Credit Cards Weather the Storm

Three in 10 consumers have a co-branded credit card; department store cards falter

• Table Co-Branded Credit Card Usage Rates by Brand, 2021 -

Department store and discount store co-brands suffer longer-term declines

• Table Co-Branded Department Store and Discount Store Credit Card Usage Rates, 2018 -

Co-Branded Cardholder Demographics

Table Co-Branded Credit Card Ownership Rates, by Consumer Demographic: Leading Types of Co-Branded Credit Cards, 2022 (percent of adults who have a credit card in their own name)

Synchrony Financial reports continued growth

American Express rides Delta strength

Capital One makes its moves

Wells Fargo keeps private-label credit card unit-for now

Digital co-brands are the cards to beat

Private-Label Credit Cards Face Continued Challenges

Top card? Kohl's Charge

But usage declines among top private-label cards continue

• Table Private Label Credit Card Usage Rates by Brand, 2021 -

Five-year trend: Target card goes against the grain

• Table Selected Private Label Credit Card Usage Rates by Brand, 2018 -

Private Label Cardholder Demographics

Table Private Label Credit Card Ownership Rates, by Consumer Demographic, 2022 (percent of adults who have a credit card in their own name)

Retailer loyalty programs increasingly separate from private label enrollment

Major private label credit card issuers are diversifying into higher-growth areas

Times are tough: Victoria's Secret and Kohl's go cobrand

Credit Card Innovation Trends

The Power of Travel and Entertainment Portals

American Express: A pioneer continues to innovate

But the portal field is getting crowded

AMEX adds a twist

Expanding Credit Access

BNPL and credit cards lead the way

Thin file? There's a credit card for you

Secured cards enjoying a renaissance?

Seamless upgrade to unsecured card

No credit score, no problem

Building credit as a family

Soft credit history pulls that don't ding your credit score

Digital Payment Services Gain Traction-Credit Cards Left Behind

PayPal stays on top-but competitors are gaining ground

• Table Digital Payments Service Usage, by Digital Payments Service Brand, 2018 -

Digital Payment Service User Demographics

Table Digital Payments Service Usage by Consumer Demographic: PayPal, Venmo, Zelle, Apple Pay/Apple Cash, Cash App/Square Cash, and Google Pay, 2022 (percent of adults who have used in the last 30 days)

Credit cards lag other mobile app funding methods-but it varies by app

• Table Share of Mobile App Payments Made, by Mobile App Brand and Funding Method,

Contactless Card Issuance and Adoption

Contactless Wallet and Card User Demographics

Table Contactless Payments Made in Last 30 Days, by Consumer Demographic: Digital Payment Service vs. Credit/Debit Card, 2022 (percent of adults who have made a contactless payment in the last 30 days)

Appendix

Market size and forecast methodology

Definitions