通信ネットワークインフラ（Telco NI）市場：2022年、Telco NIベンダーの成長率は前年比2%に低下：105社のベンダーレポートによると、Telcoの支出は5G/COVIDスパイク後に停滞し、サプライチェーンの問題は緩和されつつある

当レポートでは、世界の通信ネットワークインフラ（Telco NI）市場について調査し、市場の概要とともに、2022年第4四半期のベンダー調査結果、サプライチェーン動向、設備投資の見通しなどについてまとめています。

目次

まとめ

2022年第4四半期のTelco NIベンダーの結果（速報）

• 暫定的なデータセットでは、2022年の収益の前年比成長率は+2%だが、第4四半期では-1%

サプライチェーンの制約緩和

通信設備投資の見通し

Telco NIカバレッジの強化

予備データベースに関する注意事項

付録

List of Figures

• Figure 1: YoY growth in Telco NI vendor revenues (all companies vs. group of 105 reporting already)
• Figure 2: YoY % change in Telco NI revenues in 4Q22 for select vendors*
• Figure 3: YoY USD change in Telco NI revenues in 2022 for select vendors*
• Figure 4: Corporate revenues per employee for key Telco NI vendors*
• Figure 5: R&D expenses as % of revenues for key Telco NI vendors*

This brief provides a snapshot of preliminary 2022 results for the telco network infrastructure (Telco NI) market. It discusses demand and supply trends in Telco NI based on revenue reports and estimates for 105 active vendors, representing about 75% of the market. Telco NI's giant, Huawei, has yet to report.

In the last few months, MTN Consulting has noted that network spending was starting to flatten in the telco segment. In 3Q22, telco capex dipped 5% YoY, the first decline since 4Q20. The vendor market also weakened in 3Q22, as Telco NI vendor revenues grew just 2% after seven straight quarters of much stronger growth. Now we have a solid set of preliminary results for 2022's final three months, 4Q22. For the 105 vendors available, Telco NI revenues fell by 1% YoY in 4Q22; this is the first decline for this group of Telco NI vendors since 2Q20, when COVID shut down economies. For CY2022, Telco NI grew just 2% YoY, down from +9% in 2021, when telcos splurged post-COVID, and the 5G RAN market saw a nice run-up. Among the larger reporting vendors, the best 4Q22 Telco NI growth was recorded at the three cloud providers (AWS, Azure, and GCP); engineering services companies Dycom and MasTec; NEPs Calix, Ciena, Samsung, and Technicolor (now Vantiva). New vendor Rakuten Symphony recorded the best overall growth rate in 4Q22, with revenues of $180M up 193% YoY. On the other side, Cisco, Ericsson, and ZTE saw the worst declines in 4Q22, due in part to a downswing in spend among their largest customers.

For the overall market, some of the decline seen in 4Q22 was inevitable, as telcos slow down their initial 5G network buildouts. Other negatives include higher interest rates, higher energy costs, weak economic growth, cloud alternatives to network builds, and 5G's inability to deliver services revenue growth. Revenue guidance for 2023 from key vendors suggests a flat to slightly down market, as telcos absorb capacity and continue to wrestle with these challenges. Capex guidance from telcos is consistent.

Companies Mentioned:

Table of Contents

Summary

Telco NI vendor results for 4Q22 (prelim)

• For preliminary dataset, YoY revenue growth in 2022 was +2%, but -1% in 4Q

Supply chain constraints easing

Telco capex outlook

Enhancements to our Telco NI coverage

A note on the preliminary database

Appendix