航空産業の将来の道としてのSAF

航空産業は、輸送関連排出の約10%を占めています。世界中の政府によってネットゼロ目標が設定されており、脱炭素化戦略を採用する必要があります。SAFは、航空産業を脱炭素化するための重要な技術であると認識されており、SAF生産の主な経路として、水素化処理とPtL（Power to Liquid）があります。官民部門はSAFの混合義務や使用目標を設定し、ネットゼロ目標達成に力を注いでいます。

水素化処理はすぐに利用可能で現在もっとも安価な技術であるため、現在大きな役割を果たしています。しかし、原料の入手性という問題に直面しています。このため、長期的には低炭素水素と炭素回収インフラが成熟し、PtL合成燃料がより大きな役割を果たすと見られます。多くの国がSAFの混合義務を定めており、まだ義務化されていない国では、多くの航空企業が自主的に混合義務を定めています。航空企業は、SAFメーカーと長期取引契約を結ぶことにより、目標達成を計画しています。SAF生産能力は2020年～2030年にCAGRで約68%の成長が見込まれ、アジア、北米、欧州が供給の大部分を提供する主要地域とされています。需要面では、北米、欧州、英国がSAF消費の主要市場になると予測されています。

主なハイライト

• 民間航空は脱炭素化が特に困難な部門であり、長距離移動と高いエネルギー密度の要件が電化などのエネルギー転換戦略の障壁となっています。持続可能な航空燃料（SAF）は、排出削減を達成するための重要な技術として認識されています。より具体的には、SAFを生産する経路としては現在、水素化処理とHEFAが主流ですが、原料の利用可能性が限られているため、長期的にはPtL（Power to Liquid）のような他の経路が主流になる見込みです。
• 英国、ブラジル、日本、シンガポール、韓国、インド、インドネシア、EU27ヶ国などの国々は、すでに混合燃料の義務化を実施しています。
• 2050年にかけて、アジア、北米、欧州がSAF供給の主要地域となります。
• 2050年にかけて、北米、欧州、英国がSAF消費の主要な地域と国になります。
• 航空企業の戦略は現在、SAFメーカーと長期取引契約を結び、2050年までに各国の混合義務に準拠し、ネットゼロ目標を達成するのに十分なSAFを確保することです。

当レポートでは、世界の航空産業について調査分析し、脱炭素化におけるSAFの役割、SAF生産経路、各国のSAF混合義務、SAF生産能力の見通しなどの情報を提供しています。

目次

• エグゼクティブサマリー
• 航空による気候変動への影響
• SAFのブリーフィング
• SAF市場の課題
• ASTM承認のSAF生産経路
• SAF生産は技術転換を迎える
• PtL技術は長期的にSAFの拡大に役立つ
• 政策の見通し
• SAF混合義務の概要
• 追加の取り組みと政策の発展
• 需給の見通し
• 進行中および今後のプロジェクトに基づくSAF生産の見通し
• 2030年の生産能力で最大のSAFプロジェクト
• 主なSAF供給市場
• 主なSAF需要市場
• SAF産業の企業
• SAFの現在のマーケットリーダーと将来のマーケットリーダー
• 航空産業に対するSAF採用目標
• 信号
• 企業の書類におけるSAFへの言及
• SAF取引活動のスナップショット
• お問い合わせ

List of Tables

• Overview of national SAF blending mandates
• Overview of national SAF support from countries lacking blending mandates
• Largest SAF projects by their 2030 capacity
• SAF adoption targets for the airline industry

List of Figures

• CO2 emissions by transport sub-sector in 2022
• Direct CO2 emissions from aviation in the net zero scenario, 2000-2030
• SAF suppl by technology, 2023 and 2030
• Supply by feedstock type, 2020-2050
• Upcoming low-carbon hydrogen capacity allocated to synthetic fuels and project count, 2025-2030
• Green hydrogen production by development stage, 2024-2030
• Carbon capture capacity by development stage, 2024-2030
• SAF production outlook, 2020-2030
• RD vs SAF capacity outlook, 2020-2030
• SAF supply by region, 2020-2050
• SAD demand by country, 2020-2050
• Top SAF producers by 2023 capacity
• Top SAF producers by 2030 capacity
• SAF mentions by all companies, 2018-2024
• Top oil and gas players by mentions of SAFs in company filings, 2018-2024

The aviation industry contributes to approximately 10% of all transport-related emissions. With net-zero targets being set by governments around the world, decarbonization strategies need to be adopted. SAFs have been identified as a key technology to decarbonize the aviation industry, with hydrotreatment and PtL (Power to Liquid) as the dominant pathways for SAF production. Both the public and private sectors have mobilized by setting blending mandates and targets for SAF utilization to help reach net-zero goals.

The aviation industry contributes to approximately 10% of all transport-related emissions. With net-zero targets being set by governments around the world, decarbonization strategies need to be adopted. SAFs have been identified as a key technology to decarbonize the aviation industry, with hydrotreatment and Power to Liquid as the dominant pathways for SAF production. Hydrotreatment is playing a major role at present, as the technology is readily available and currently the most affordable, however, it faces issues of feedstock availability. For this reason, Power to Liquid synthetic fuels will play a greater role in the long-term, when low-carbon hydrogen and carbon capture infrastructure will have reached maturity. A number of countries have set blending mandates for SAF usage, and, more prevalently in countries where mandates have not been set in place yet, numerous airlines have also set voluntary blending mandates. Airlines are planning on reaching their targets by signing long-term offtake agreements with SAF producers. With SAF capacity projected to grow at a CAGR of almost 68% between 2020 and 2030, Asia, North America, and Europe have been identified as the key regions providing the majority of said supply. On the demand side, North America, Europe, and the UK are expected to become the dominant markets for SAF consumption.

Key Highlights

• Commercial aviation represents a particularly difficult sector to decarbonize, with long distance journeys and high energy density requirements posing a barrier to energy transition strategies such as electrification, sustainable aviation fuels (SAFs) have been identified as a key technology for achieving emission reductions. More specifically, hydrotreatment and HEFA are the currently the dominant pathways to producing SAF, however, due to their limited feedstock availability, other pathways such as PtL (Power to Liquid) will become the prevalent ones in the long-term.
• Countries such as UK, Brazil, Japan, Singapore, South Korea, India, Indonesia and EU-27 have already enforced blending mandates.
• Asia, North America, and Europe will be the dominant regions for SAF supply through 2050.
• North America, Europe, and UK will be the top regions and countries for SAF consumption through 2050.
• Airlines' strategies currently consist of securing long-term offtake agreements with SAF producers so that they may have sufficient SAF to abide by countries' blending mandates and meet net-zero targets in the run up to 2050.

Scope

• Aviation's current emissions and emission targets.
• The role SAF will play in decarbonizing the aviation sector.
• Overview of different pathways to produce SAF with particular focus to hydrotreatment and synthetic fuels.
• Overview of countries' blending mandates or support for SAFs.
• SAF capacity outlook, including upcoming biggest SAF plants by 2030 capacity, and largest producers of SAF.
• Overview of geographical distribution of present and future SAF demand and supply.
• Overview of airlines' strategies to reduce emissions.
• Overview of signals such as company filings and recent deals as a measure to understand micromovements in the SAF market.

Reasons to Buy

• Identify market trends within the aviation industry with regards to decarbonization efforts to meet net-zero targets and abide by countries' blending mandates for SAF usage.
• Identify key technologies for the decarbonization of the aviation industry, with particular focus on hydrotreatment and PtL (Power to Liquid).
• Identify which countries have already issued blending mandates, and what other countries are doing to support the development of the technology.
• Identify which countries will become the largest suppliers and consumers of SAFs.
• Develop market insight into what corporations are doing to future-proof their business, including oil and gas companies devoting part of their capacity to SAF production, and airlines signing long-term offtake agreements with SAF producers.
• Stay up to date with the latest deals within the sector, from mergers and acquisitions to venture financing, and private equity deals.

Table of Contents

Table of Contents

• Executive Summary
• Aviation's Contribution to Climate Change
• SAF Briefing
• SAF market challenges
• ASTM approved SAF production pathways
• SAF production will undergo a technology shift
• Power to liquid technology will help scale SAFs in the long term
• Policy Outlook
• An overview of SAF blending mandates
• Additional initiatives and policy developments
• Supply and Demand Outlook
• SAF production outlook based on active and upcoming projects
• The largest SAF projects by their 2030 capacity
• Key SAF supply markets
• Key SAF demand markets
• SAF Industry Players
• Current and projected market leaders in SAFs
• SAF adoption targets for the airline industry
• Signals
• Mentions of SAFs within company filings
• A snapshot of SAF deal activity
• Contact us