石油・ガス部門の低炭素燃料に対する戦略

石油・ガス産業は、政府と投資家の双方から、脱炭素化と製品の多様化を求める圧力を受けています。再生可能ディーゼル、SAF、合成燃料のような低炭素燃料は、石油・ガス産業が既存の消費財産業に製品とサービスを提供し続けることを可能にする一方で、資産を多様化し、インフラが老朽化するリスクを低減する脱炭素化への道を提供します。

石油・ガス産業は現在、数多くの課題に直面していますが、脱炭素化と製品の多様化に対する圧力は、間違いなく最大のものです。これは、気候変動への懸念や、石油・ガス企業の利益を脅かす政府による炭素税の増加によるものです。この圧力は、産業の長期的な収益性を懸念する投資家からのものでもあります。実際、World Economic Forumは、石油需要が2030年～2035年にピークに達すると予測しています。

再生可能ディーゼル、SAF、合成燃料のような低炭素燃料は、石油産業が既存の消費財産業に製品とサービスを提供し続け、同時に資産を多様化し、インフラが老朽化するリスクを低減することを可能にする脱炭素化へのルートを提供します。

石油・ガス企業が低炭素燃料市場に参入するために模索している戦略は数多くあります。その1つが、コプロセッシングによる再生可能ディーゼルやSAFの生産、あるいは既存設備の再利用による既存製油所の転換です。もう1つの道筋は、再生可能スタンドアロン製油所への長期投資です。この製油所では、初期投資額は大きくなりますが、コプロセッシング製油所や転換製油所よりもはるかに高い生産能力まで生産規模を拡大することができます。

再生可能スタンドアロンプロジェクトは、再生可能ディーゼルとSAFの生産能力の大部分に寄与し、2030年に再生可能エネルギー製油所全体の生産能力の64％を占めると予測されます。一方、石油・ガス企業は、合成燃料を生産するために、水素供給業者と協力するか、独自の水素生産施設に投資する必要があります。

こうした低炭素燃料の生産はそれぞれ増加すると予測されますが、いずれも、現在のところ従来型燃料と比較してコスト競争力がないという課題を抱えています。また、近年の化石燃料需要の急増により、石油・ガス企業は産業の長寿命化に自信を深め、低炭素燃料への投資は近年減速しています。

全体として、SAFはもっとも力強く成長し、生産高は2020年～2035年にCAGRで44％の増加を示し、その結果、石油・ガス産業にとって有望な開発分野となります。一方、再生可能ディーゼルの生産能力は、その一部がSAFに転用されるため、同時期におけるCAGRは9%にとどまると予測されます。再生可能ディーゼルは、需要の減少が予測されるため、今後10年間は供給過剰の課題に直面する可能性があります。最後に、生産上の課題から、2030年に向けて石油・ガス企業がもっとも選ばない再生可能燃料は合成燃料になると見られます。

主なハイライト

• 3つのタイプの再生可能製油所（原油精製所転換、コプロセッシング、再生可能スタンドアロン）の生産能力は、2030年にかけて増加し続けると予測されます。
• 原油精製所転換と原油精製コプロセッシングの生産能力は、いずれも2024年～2030年にCAGRで14%の成長が見込まれます。
• 再生可能スタンドアロンの生産能力はもっとも高い成長率であり、2024年～2030年のCAGRは30%です。
• 3つのタイプの製油所すべてにおいて、2024年～2030年にRDではなくSAFへの生産能力のシフトが見られます。
• RDの生産と消費は、2020年～2032年にそれぞれCAGRで12%および12.5%の成長を示し、ピークに達します。
• 世界のSAFの生産と消費は、2020年～2035年にCAGRで44%の成長が見込まれます。
• 低炭素水素からの合成燃料生産は成長を続ける見通しで、2025年～2030年にCAGRで58%の成長が見込まれ、2030年に生産能力が急増します（年1,000万トン超）。

当レポートでは、世界の石油・ガス産業について調査分析し、低炭素燃料戦略に対する戦略、バイオ燃料に関する法的枠組み、各再生可能燃料の市場の見通しなどを提供しています。

目次

• エグゼクティブサマリー
• バイオ燃料に関する法的枠組み
• 再生可能燃料への移行に向けた部門の戦略
• 原油精製所転換、コプロセッシング vs. 再生可能スタンドアロン
• 再生可能ディーゼル：市場の見通しとリーダー
• SAF：市場の見通しとリーダー
• 合成燃料：市場の見通しとリーダー
• 重要事項

List of Tables

• Oil and gas focus areas in the low carbon fuels market
• Current key oil and gas players in the biofuels market
• Crude refinery conversion and co-processing: pros and cons for refiners
• Crude refineries converted and co-processing active and upcoming projects
• Crude refineries for renewable standalone active and upcoming
• The largest renewable diesel projects by their 2030 capacity
• The largest SAF projects by their 2030 capacity
• RD, SAF and synthetic fuel development stage

List of Figures

• Renewable refineries capacity by type, 2024-2030
• Renewable refineries by project count, 2024-2030
• CAPEX across renewable refineries types
• Leading renewable fuel producers in 2024 YTD (conversion and coprocessing)
• Predicted renewable fuel producers in 2030 (conversion and coprocessing)
• Leading renewable fuel companies in 2024 YTD (renewable standalone)
• Leading renewable fuel companies in 2030 (renewable standalone)
• RD production by region, 2020-2035
• RD consumption by region, 2020-2035
• Top 5 companies for RD production by capacity, 2024
• Top 5 companies for RD production by capacity, 2030
• Top 10 non-oil and gas companies by mentions of RD in company filings, 2016-2024
• Top 10 oil and gas companies by mentions of RD in company filings, 2016-2024
• Mentions of RD in company filings, 2016-2024
• SAF production by region, 2020-2035
• SAF consumption by region, 2020-2035
• Top 5 companies for SAF production by capacity, 2024
• Top 5 companies for SAF production by capacity, 2030
• Top 10 non-oil and gas companies by mentions of SAF in company filings, 2016-2024
• Top 10 oil and gas companies by mentions of SAF in company filings, 2016-2024
• Mentions of SAF in company filings, 2016-2024
• Upcoming low-carbon hydrogen capacity allocated to synthetic fuels and project count, 2025-2030
• Top 5 companies for synthetic fuel production by capacity, 2024
• Top 5 companies for synthetic fuel production by capacity, 2030

The oil and gas industry is facing pressures from both governments and investors to decarbonize and diversify its products. Low-carbon fuels such as renewable diesel, SAFs, and synthetic fuels offer a route to decarbonization that allows the industry to continue providing products and services to its existing consumer industries, while diversifying its assets and decreasing the risk of its infrastructure becoming obsolete.

The oil and gas industry currently faces numerous challenges, but the pressure to decarbonize and diversify its products is arguably the largest. This is due to climate concerns, as well as increasing carbon tax imposed by governments, which threatens oil and gas companies' profits. This pressure also comes from investors, who are concerned with the long-term profitability of the industry. In fact, the World Economic Forum forecasts oil demand to peak between 2030 and 2035.

Low-carbon fuels such as renewable diesel, SAFs, and synthetic fuels offer a route to decarbonization that allows the industry to continue providing products and services to its existing consumer industries, while diversifying its assets and decreasing the risk of its infrastructure becoming obsolete.

There are a number of strategies that oil and gas players are exploring to branch into the low carbon fuels market. One pathway includes producing renewable diesel and SAFs through coprocessing or the conversion of existing refineries by repurposing existing equipment. Another pathway includes long-term investments into renewable standalone refineries, which require greater upfront capital but can scale production to far higher capacities than co-processing and conversion refineries.

Renewable standalone projects are expected to contribute the bulk of the production capacity for renewable diesel and SAFs, accounting for 64% of the overall renewable refinery capacity in 2030. Meanwhile, oil and gas players will need to engage with hydrogen suppliers or invest in their own hydrogen production facilities to produce synthetic fuels.

The production of each of these low-carbon fuels is expected to increase, but all come with their own set of challenges, namely that they are currently not cost-competitive compared to conventional fuels. A surge in fossil fuel demand in recent years has also led oil and gas companies to gain more confidence surrounding the industry's longevity, leading to a recent slowdown in low-carbon fuel investments.

Overall, SAFs will experience the strongest growth, with production increasing at a CAGR of 44% between 2020 and 2035 and, as a result, represent a promising area of development for the oil and gas industry. Meanwhile, renewable diesel production will increase at a smaller CAGR of 9% across the same time frame, as some of its capacity will be diverted to SAFs. RD may also face oversupply challenges in the next decade, due to a predicted decrease in its demand. Lastly, production challenges will see synthetic fuels as the renewable fuel picked the least by oil and gas companies in the run-up to 2030.

Key Highlights

• Capacities for all three types of renewable refineries (crude oil refinery conversion, coprocessing and renewable standalone) are forecast to keep increasing through to 2030.
• Crude refinery conversion and crude refinery co-processing capacities are both set to grow at a CAGR of 14% between 2024 and 2030.
• Renewable standalone capacity is growing at the highest rate, with a CAGR of 30% between 2024 and 2030.
• For all three types of refineries, between 2024 and 2030, a shift can be witnessed where capacity is increasingly being devoted to SAFs as opposed to RD.
• RD production and consumption are both set to grow at a CAGR of 12% and 12.5%, respectively, between 2020 and 2032, where they are set to reach a peak.
• Global SAF production and consumption are both set to grow at a CAGR of 44% between 2020 and 2035.
• Synthetic fuel production from low-carbon hydrogen is set to keep growing, with a positive CAGR of 58% between 2025 and 2030, with a spike in capacity in 2030 (over 10mtpa).

Scope

• Oil and gas sector strategies for low-carbon fuels;
• Legislative framework for biofuels, with specific focus on RD and SAF;
• Sector strategies for transitioning into renewable fuels, including refinery retrofitting;
• Crude oil refinery conversion and coprocessing vs renewable standalone
• Renewable diesel: market outlook and leaders
• SAFs: market outlook and leaders
• Synthetic fuels: market outlook and leaders

Reasons to Buy

• Identify decarbonizing market trends within the oil and gas sector, including the analysis of the strategies that the biggest industry players are implementing.
• Develop market insight of the major technologies and pathways used to decarbonize the industry, including refinery retrofitting as well as investment into standalone refineries, with focus on renewable diesel, sustainable aviation fuels, and synthetic fuels.
• Identify the key policies driving development and which countries have the most established legislative framework for said technologies.
• Facilitate the understanding of what is predicted to happen in the renewable fuels market within the next decade.

Table of Contents

Table of Contents

• Executive summary
• Legislative framework for biofuels
• Sector strategies for transitioning into renewable fuels
• Crude oil refinery conversion and coprocessing vs renewable standalone
• Renewable diesel: market outlook and leaders
• SAFs: market outlook and leaders
• Synthetic fuels: market outlook and leaders
• Key takeaways