低炭素燃料に対する石油・ガスセクターの戦略：市場概要、生産見通し、動向、分析

石油・ガス産業は現在、数多くの課題に直面していますが、中でも製品の脱炭素化に対するプレッシャーが最も大きくなっています。再生可能ディーゼル、SAF、合成燃料などの低炭素燃料は、石油・ガス産業が既存の消費者産業に製品やサービスを提供し続けることを可能にする脱炭素化への道を提供します。石油・ガス企業が低炭素燃料市場に参入するために模索している戦略は数多くあります。再生可能ディーゼルやSAFは、コプロセシングや、水素化処理装置の再利用による既存の製油所の転換を通じて生産することができます。再生可能ディーゼルやSAFの生産能力の大半は、独立型の再生可能プロジェクトが担うことになるとみられています。一方、石油・ガス企業は、合成燃料を製造するために、水素供給業者と協力するか、独自の水素製造設備に投資する必要があります。これらの低炭素燃料の生産はそれぞれ増加すると予想されますが、いずれも、現在のところ従来型燃料とのコスト競争力がないという独自の課題を抱えています。全体として、SAFは2018年～2030年のCAGRが49.8%と最も力強い成長を遂げ、その結果、石油・ガス産業にとって有望な分野となります。一方、再生可能ディーゼルの生産量は同時期に13.1％増加します。生産課題は、2030年まで合成燃料がまだ発展途上の技術であることです。

当レポートでは、低炭素燃料に対する石油・ガスセクターの戦略について調査し、既存の石油・ガスインフラや労働力のスキル・専門知識に基づき、再生可能ディーゼル、持続可能航空燃料（SAF）、合成燃料を重点分野として、これらの低炭素燃料の生産見通しを評価し、石油・ガス企業にとって最大の機会、今後の予測などを提供しています。

目次

• エグゼクティブサマリー
• 石油・ガスセクターの低炭素燃料戦略
• 石油・ガスセクターの課題
• 低炭素燃料市場における石油・ガスの注力分野
• 当社が注力する低炭素燃料のイントロダクション
• 再生可能燃料への移行に向けた部門戦略
• 変換/コプロセス製油所vsスタンドアロンプロジェクト
• 再生可能ディーゼル
• 再生可能ディーゼル生産見通し
• 再生可能ディーゼルの現在の市場リーダー
• 2030年の生産能力までに最大規模の再生可能ディーゼルプロジェクト
• 石油・ガスに関する企業の申請動向
• 消費と取引の動向
• 持続可能な航空燃料
• SAF生産見通し
• 2030年の生産能力までに最大規模のSAFプロジェクト
• SAFの現在および将来の市場リーダー
• 石油・ガスに関する企業の申請動向
• 取引活動
• 合成燃料
• 生産見通し
• 石油・ガスの合成燃料企業
• お問い合わせ

List of Tables

List of Tables

• Largest renewable diesel projects by their 2030 capacity
• Largest SAF projects by their 2030 capacity
• Key Takeaways

List of Figures

List of Figures

• Oil and gas sector challenges
• Oil and gas focus areas in the low carbon fuels market
• Introducing the three focus low carbon fuels for the oil and gas sector
• Types of renewable refinery
• Renewable refineries by type and project count, 2023 - 2030
• CAPEX across renewable refinery types
• Renewable diesel production outlook, 2018 - 2030
• Top 15 renewable diesel companies by capacity in 2022
• Mentions of renewable diesel in oil and gas company filings, 2016 - August 2023
• Top oil and gas players by mentions of renewable diesel within company filings
• Renewable diesel consumption, 2022 - 2040
• Oil and gas deals related to renewable diesel 2018 - 2022
• SAF production outlook, 2018 - 2030
• Top SAF producers by 2022 capacity
• Top SAF producers by 2030 capacity
• SAF mentions by oil and gas companies, 2018 - 2023 (YTD)
• Top oil and gas players by mentions of SAFs in company filings between 2018 and 2023 (YTD)
• A snapshot of SAF deal activity in the oil and gas sector
• Synthetic fuel production and project count, 2018 - 2030
• Upcoming synthetic fuel production capacity of oil and gas players as of August 2023

Abstract

The oil and gas industry currently faces numerous challenges, but the pressure to decarbonize its products is arguably the largest. Low carbon fuels such as renewable diesel, SAFs, and synthetic fuels offer a route to decarbonization that allows the industry to continue providing products and services to its existing consumer industries. There are a number of strategies that oil and gas players are exploring to branch into the low carbon fuels market. Renewable diesel and SAFs can be produced through coprocessing or the conversion of existing refineries by repurposing hydrotreating equipment. Standalone renewable projects will contribute the majority of production capacity for renewable diesel and SAFs. Meanwhile, oil and gas players will need to engage with hydrogen suppliers or invest in their own hydrogen production facilities to produce synthetic fuels. The production of each of these low carbon fuels is expected to increase, but all come with their own set of challenges, namely that they are currently not cost competitive with conventional fuels. Overall, SAFs will experience the strongest growth, with a CAGR of 49.8% between 2018- 2030 and, as a result, represent a promising area for the oil and gas industry. Meanwhile, renewable diesel production will increase by 13.1% across the same time frame. Production challenges will see synthetic fuels remains a nascent technology in the run up to 2030.

Amid increasing pressure to decarbonize and diversify its products, this report outlines oil and gas sector strategies within the low carbon fuels market. The report identifies renewable diesel, sustainable aviation fuels (SAFs), and synthetic fuel as key focus areas based on existing oil and gas infrastructure as well as workforce skills and expertise. The report assesses the production outlook for each of these low carbon fuels and indicates the biggest areas of opportunity for oil and gas players.

Key Highlights

• Larger production capacities of renewable fuels are typically being achieved by renewable standalone projects, where construction is not hampered by an existing refinery footprint. Although these projects require a much higher capital expenditure.
• Based on GlobalData's database of active and upcoming renewable refinery projects, renewable diesel production is expected to exceed 8,900 mmgy by 2030.
• Only 4 of the top 10 integrated oil and gas companies by market capitalization feature in our renewable diesel ranking by capacity.
• Taking together both active and pipeline production capacity, SAF production is expected to exceed 6,100 mmgy in 2030.
• Low synthetic fuel production is partly due to the early stages of this technology and the challenges of achieving economically viable production on a commercial scale.

Scope

• Renewable diesel production outlook
• Renewable diesel upcoming projects
• SAFs production outlook
• SAFS upcoming projects
• Synthetic fuels production outlook
• Low carbon fuel deal activity within oil and gas
• Company filing trends within low carbon fuels

Reasons to Buy

• Obtain the most up to date information on recent developments and policies related to oil and gas sector strategies in the low carbon fuels segment.
• Identify the opportunities of challenges associated with the switch form oil refining to renewable refineries for crude oil refiners.
• Gain insight into the production outlook for renewable diesel, SAFS, and synthetic fuels.
• Assess competitors based on their active and pipeline capacities for low carbon fuel production and gain an overview of largest upcoming renewable refinery projects.

Table of Contents

Table of Contents

• Executive Summary
• Oil and Gas Sector Strategies for Low Carbon Fuels
• Oil and gas sector challenges
• Oil and gas focus areas in the low carbon fuels market
• Introduction to our focus low carbon fuels
• Sector strategies for transitioning to renewable fuels
• Converted/ coprocessing refineries vs standalone projects
• Renewable Diesel
• Renewable diesel production outlook
• Current market leaders in renewable diesel
• The largest renewable diesel projects by 2030 capacity
• Company filing trends in oil and gas
• Consumption and deal trends
• Sustainable Aviation Fuel
• SAF production outlook
• The largest SAF projects by 2030 capacity
• Current and projected market leaders in SAFs
• Company filing trends in oil and gas
• Deal activity
• Synthetic Fuels
• Production outlook
• Oil and gas synthetic fuel players
• Contact us