持続可能な航空燃料市場 - 航空業界にとって前進の道

持続可能な航空燃料（SAF）全体の生産量は10年後までに6,000mmgyを超え、2018年から2030年にかけてCAGR 49.8%で増加すると予想されています。

業界の脱炭素化の必要性に応えて、SAFの義務化を発表する国が増加しています。最も野心的な目標を発表したのは英国と日本であり、両国とも2030年までにSAF混合比率10％を目指しています。しかし、SAFの供給と需要の両面で米国が主要市場となります。

Neste、Gevo、World Energyといった燃料生産側の業界企業が、2030年までのSAF生産量をリードするとみられています。一方、多くの航空会社が2050年までのネット・ゼロ目標を採用し、2030年までにSAF使用量を10%まで増やすことを目指しています。

航空業界は、一人当たりの排出量増加の最大の要因であり、旅客数は倍増し、2050年には80億人に達すると予想されています。国際航空運送協会（IATA）もまた、2050年までにネット・ゼロを達成する目標を発表しました。IATAは300以上の加盟航空会社を代表し、航空輸送量の83％を占めると推定されています。IATAは、排出削減の65％は持続可能な航空燃料（SAF）の採用により達成されると予想しています。

SAFの生産が拡大するにつれ、原料の需要が供給を上回る可能性があり、特に廃油は生産量が少なく、再生可能ディーゼル生産者との競合が起こる可能性があります。

2050年には、回収された二酸化炭素を利用する液体燃料化技術が成熟し、CO2が最大の原料になる見込みです。

本レポートは、世界の持続可能な航空燃料市場について調査し、民間航空セクターの脱炭素化の課題と、排出量削減を達成する上でSAFが果たす潜在的な役割について解説しています。また、セクターの課題、重要な技術シフト、主要な参入企業について分析しています。

目次

エグゼクティブサマリー

• 気候変動に対する航空の貢献
• SAFブリーフィング
• SAF市場の課題
• ASTMが承認したSAF製造経路
• SAF生産は技術転換を迎える
• 電力から液体への技術は長期的にSAFを拡大するのに役立つ
• 政策の見通し
• SAFブレンド義務の概要
• 追加の取り組みと政策展開
• 需給見通し
• 進行中のプロジェクトと今後のプロジェクトに基づくSAF生産見通し
• 2030年の生産能力別最大のSAFプロジェクト
• 地域別SAF供給予測
• 主要な需要市場
• SAF業界の参入企業
• SAFの現在および将来の市場リーダー
• 航空業界におけるSAFの導入目標
• 信号
• 企業提出書類内でのSAFへの言及は増加傾向
• 石油・ガス部門におけるSAF取引活動の概要
• お問い合わせ

List of Tables

List of Tables

• An overview of SAF blending mandatess
• The largest SAF projects by their 2030 capacity
• SAF adoption targets for the airline industry

List of Figures

List of Figures

• Percentage contribution to transport emissions in 2030 by type
• Direct CO2 emissions from aviation in the net-zero scenario, 2000 - 2030
• SAF market challenges
• ASTM approved SAF production pathways
• SAF supply by technology, 2023 and 2030
• Sup

Abstract

This report provides an overview of the global commercial aviation sector's decarbonization challenge and the potential role SAFs will play in achieving emission reduction. The report analyses sector challenges, important technological shifts, and key players.

To spur emission reductions from the sector, organizations such as the ICAO and the ITAO have set a target of reaching net-zero emissions by 2050. Sustainable aviation fuels (SAFs) have been identified as a key technology for achieving emission reductions.

There are currently 9 pathways for producing SAFs that are certified by the IATA. However, hydrotreatment remains the dominant pathway for the bulk of current SAF production. As SAF production scales, alternative pathways will become more prominent, particularly alcohol-to-jet (ATJ) and power to liquid (PtL) technologies.

Overall SAF production is expected to exceed 6,000mmgy by the end of the decade, increasing at a CAGR of 49.8% between 2018 and 2030.

In response to the industry's need to decarbonize, an increasing number of countries have announced SAF mandates. The most ambitious targets have been announced by the UK and Japan which are both aiming for a SAF blend of 10% by 2030. However, the US will be the key market both in terms of SAF supply and demand.

Industry players on the fuel production side such as Neste, Gevo, and World Energy will lead in terms of SAF production by 2030. Meanwhile, numerous airlines have adopted the net-zero by 2050 target and are aiming to increase their SAF usage to 10% by 2030.

Key Highlights

• Aviation represents the largest contributor to growth in per capita emissions and with passenger numbers expected to double, reaching 8 billion by 2050, the sector now needs to urgently address its environmental impact.
• The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has also announced its aim of reaching net-zero by 2050. The IATA represents over 300 members and constitutes an estimated 83% of air traffic. It has said that it expects 65% of emission reduction to be met through the adoption of sustainable aviation fuels (SAFs).
• Demand for feedstocks may outpace supply as SAF production scales, particularly for waste oils where volumes are low and competition with renewable diesel producers could take place.
• In 2050, CO2 will be the largest feedstock as power to liquid technologies that use captured carbon dioxide reach maturity.
• According to GlobalData's current database of active and upcoming projects, synthetic fuel production could reach up to 7,200 ktpa by 2030 as the number of projects reaches 68.
• The SAF Certificate Registry was launched at COP28, allowing companies to buy credible SAF certificates that represent conventional fuel being displaced.
• Despite neither the US or Canada having a blending mandate, North America will become the dominant market for SAF supply by 2030, where it will account for 10.8 Mt of annual SAF production. This equates to 39% of global supply.
• The key oil and gas players within the SAF market will experience a shake up. While China Petrochemical Corp currently stands joint first in terms of current capacity due to its Zhenai Renewable refinery, it will lose this market positioning in 2030 to new market entrants such as Oriental Energy.

Scope

• Carbon footprint of aviation sector
• Emission reduction potential of SAFs
• ASTM approved SAF production pathways
• Emerging SAF production pathways
• SAF production outlook and key supply and demand markets
• SAF production capacity by country
• Oil and gas sector activity within SAFs

Reasons to Buy

• Understand the key trends and challenges within the SAFs market
• Identify the key countries and players for SAF production capacity.
• Develop market insight of current, in development and announced capacity and latest trends of the sector.
• Understand how the oil and gas sector is engaging with this technology through upcoming capacity as well as alternative datasets such as deals, hiring and company filings trends.

Table of Contents

Table of Contents

Executive summary

• Aviation's contribution to climate change
• SAF briefing
• SAF market challenges
• ASTM approved SAF production pathways
• SAF production will undergo a technology shift
• Power to liquid technology will help scale SAFs in the long term
• Policy Outlook
• An overview of SAF blending mandates
• Additional initiatives and policy developments
• Supply and Demand Outlook
• SAF production outlook based on active and upcoming projects
• The largest SAF projects by capacity in 2030
• Regional SAF supply forecasts
• Key demand markets
• SAF Industry players
• Current and Projected market leaders in SAFs
• SAFs adoption targets for the airline industry
• Signals
• Mentions of SAFs within corporate filings is on the rise
• A snapshot of SAF deal activity from the oil and gas sector
• Contact Us