インドのマクロ経済の成長機会：2030年までの予測

インドは、他の国々同様、新型コロナウイルス感染症（COVID-19）パンデミックの多大な影響を受けており、2020年の経済成長は鈍化する可能性が高いものの、将来的な見通しは明るいといえます。インドのGDP伸び率は、2020年におよそ1％に低下するものの、2030年のGDPは世界第4位になると予想されます。すでに大都市は飽和状態となっているため、今後の焦点は中小都市へと移り、インドが成長と発展を続けるうえで重要な役割を担うことになります。インドでは、労働年齢人口が増加傾向にあり、この点でも大きな可能性があります。

当レポートは、インドのマクロ経済の成長機会について調査したもので、COVID-19の経済的な影響、長期的な経済成長の可能性、成長機会などについて分析しています。

目次

エグゼクティブサマリー

• インドの未来：10大予測

調査範囲

• 調査範囲

Covid-19の経済的影響

• Covid-19インドへの影響
• インドの混乱の長さと深さ、回復の様相

インドの長期的な経済成長の機会

• 2030年までに世界で4番目に大きな経済国になる
• マハラシュトラ州の経済規模が2028年にはインドで初めて1兆ドルに到達
• 急成長する経済へのより大きな貢献者として出現する中小都市
• 2026年までに中国を追い抜くインドの労働年齢人口
• 2015年から2030年の間に1.5倍に増加する高齢者人口
• Z世代とY世代（ミレニアル世代）がインドの人口の50％以上を占める
• 中所得世帯のシェアは2018年の53.9％から2030年までに77.7％に上昇
• 富裕層の増加
• 商取引のデジタル化の進展
• ソーシャルメディアの有力な市場であり続けるインド
• 2025年までに新興企業数が4倍に成長し、経済変革を推進

成長機会

• 成長機会

結論

• 主な結論
• 免責事項

付録

• 図表リスト

Frost & Sullivanについて

The Likelihood of India Becoming the Fourth-largest Economy, with an 80% Middle-class Household Share, Creates Significant Business Potential

India is, no doubt, reeling from the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic, as is the rest of the world. Beyond the growth slowdown in 2020, India's long-term macroeconomic prospects still remain bright.

This research examines India's long-term macroeconomic outlook and sheds light on growth opportunities that Indian and global businesses could tap into.

While 2020 GDP growth is expected to slip to about 1%, India will nonetheless climb the economic ladder thereafter to become the 4th largest economy globally by 2030 in terms of GDP size. Accelerated structural reforms can also make India the fourth-largest economy. With metros near saturation, Tier II and Tier III Indian cities will play a pivotal role in shaping India's growth and development in the next decade. More economic and business opportunities are expected to emerge from these cities over the next few years. In addition, businesses can also look forward to a booming Indian middle class which will strengthen the economy. The luxury market stands to benefit from the high growth of millionaires in India. Tier II and Tier III cities will see a rise in the demand for wealth-management services.

Companies operating in India can tap into opportunities tied to India's population structure. The size and market share of the Indian working-age population are expected to grow, in contrast to a decline in China. Systematic training and education of India's growing workforce would directly serve the growth of Indian businesses and industries. While the size of India's elderly population is expected to grow by nearly 1.5 times between 2015 and 2030, there are major gaps in senior living real estate and geriatric care that companies could explore.

A large portion of the financial transactions in the Indian economy is expected to be digital in the next five years, enabling India to transition from its status as a cash-based economy to being a digital economy. As India leads social media usage, the rapid uptick in usage and relatively low social media penetration rates offer several business opportunities to social media companies.

Key Issues Addressed:

• What are some of the key growth opportunities that companies can look forward to beyond Covid-19?

• What will the Indian economy look like in 2030?

• How will state-wise GDP evolve in the next ten years?

• What is the outlook for India's working-age population?

• How will India's elderly population grow over the next ten years and what are the untapped opportunities?

• What will India's middle-class market share look like in the next decade?

• Why should companies focus on Tier II and Tier III cities for growth and expansion?

• What is the outlook for start-up growth in India?

• What is the outlook for digital payments in India?

Table of Contents

Executive Summary

• Future of India: Top 10 Predictions

Research Scope

• Research Scope

India and Covid-19 Economic Impact

• Covid-19 Impact on India
• Length and Depth of India's Disruption and Shape of Recovery

India Long-term Economic Growth Opportunities

• India to Become the Fourth-largest Economy by 2030
• Maharashtra to Become India's First Trillion-dollar Economy by 2028
• Tier II and Tier III Cities to Emerge as Larger Contributors to Booming Economy
• India's Working-age Population Size to Overshoot China's by 2026
• Elderly Population to Grow by 1.5 Times between 2015 and 2030
• Gen Z and Gen Y (Millennials) Together Account for More than 50% of India's Population
• Share of Middle Income Households to Rise from 53.9% in 2018 to 77.7% by 2030
• Millionaires to Grow from 343,075 in 2018 to Nearly 750,000 by 2025
• 4 out 5 Transactions to be Possibly Made Digitally by 2025
• India to Continue Being a Leading Social Media Market
• 4X Growth in Start-Up Numbers by 2025 to Help Drive Economic Transformation

Growth Opportunities

• Growth Opportunities

The Last Word

• Key Conclusions
• Legal Disclaimer

Appendix

• List of Exhibits

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