ロシアによるウクライナへの軍事行動の世界のマクロ経済への影響：2022年

ロシアによるウクライナへの軍事行動は、世界経済全体に新たなレベルの変動を解き放ちました。世界の商品価格は上昇し、脆弱な世界のサプライチェーンをさらに悪化させ、インフレ圧力も高まっています。紛争が長引く中、欧米の対ロシア制裁は2022年、そして2023年の世界のGDP成長率を低下させる可能性があります。

当レポートでは、ロシアによるウクライナへの軍事行動について調査分析し、戦略的必須要件、マクロ経済分析、成長機会に関する情報を提供しています。

目次

戦略的必須要件

• 成長がますます困難になるのはなぜか？
• 戦略的必須要件 8（TM）
• 世界のマクロ経済環境に対する上位3つの戦略的必須要件の影響
• 成長機会がGrowth Pipeline Engine (TM)を促進

マクロ経済分析：2022年

• 成長の促進要因
• 成長の抑制要因
• ロシアによるウクライナへの軍事行動は2022年の世界の成長見通しをさらに弱体化：中国とインドが主要な成長要因となる
• 最悪の影響を受ける欧州：石油価格の高騰から利益を得る湾岸経済
• ロシアとウクライナによる貿易の混乱が、世界のサプライチェーンの方向転換を推進
• 深刻化する世界のチップ不足：インドがロシア/ウクライナからの小麦輸出に代わる政策支援を強化
• インフレ圧力を強めるロシアによるウクライナへの軍事行動：金融政策をさらに強化する中央銀行
• ベースラインシナリオで予想される1バレルあたり112.5米ドルの平均ブレント原油価格：EUがロシアの輸入を禁止した場合、スポット価格は200米ドルを超える可能性あり
• EUはロシアガスから離れて多様化しようとしている：ロシアガス供給の削減またはウクライナのパイプラインの被害が長引くリスク
• 燃料費の高騰と経路変更に直面する航空業界：投入コスト上昇と主食不足による食料生産コスト上昇
• 投入資源不足と金属コストの上昇により抑制される自動車生産：金属鉱石の需要を調整するための需要の減速とエネルギーコストの上昇
• 政策の優先事項-世界の政府はどのように対応しているか？
• 世界経済への影響の概要

成長機会ユニバース

• 成長機会-農業、エネルギー、および金属の現地生産と輸出向け生産の機会
• 図表リスト
• 免責事項

Geopolitical Chaos to Accelerate Trade and Supply-chain Reorientation and Enhance the Manufacturing and Export Potential of Rest-of-the-world Economies

Following a robust economic recovery in 2021, global economic conditions were set to slowly normalize in 2022, with downside restraints emerging from the tightening of global financial conditions, sporadic virus outbreaks, and supply disruptions. However, the Russo-Ukrainian war has unleashed new levels of volatility across the global economy. Global commodity prices have risen, with the war also exacerbating fragile global supply chains as well as rising inflationary pressures. Enduring Western sanctions on Russia amid a drawn-out conflict stands to undermine global GDP growth in 2022 and potentially in 2023. Against this backdrop, how will the Russo-Ukrainian war impact GDP growth in key economies? To what level will the geopolitical crisis spur global trade and supply-chain reorientation in 2022 and beyond? How will central banks navigate the economic tradeoff between mounting inflation and weakening growth, impacting firms' borrowing decisions? What is the outlook for the energy market in 2022?

This analysis delves into the GDP growth outlook for select economies, delineates the impact of the conflict on global trade, and identifies winners and losers from the supply-chain policy reorientation. Another key feature of this report is the inflation and monetary policy outlook with implications for firms' pricing and borrowing decisions. By analyzing the extent of disruption in key industries, this report provides insights into the near-term outlook for aviation, automotive, metals, and agriculture sectors.

The deliverable also provides insights into oil and gas market dynamics in 2022 under a baseline scenario by evaluating the impact of sanctions, supply constraints, and demand shifts. Finally, the study highlights a medium-term view of global policy pivots in response to the war in the context of securing supply-chain vulnerabilities, mitigating energy security risks, and shifts in trade and investment dynamics. Growth opportunities arising from the disruptions and key strategic imperatives for businesses crucial to minimizing the impact of higher input costs and raw material shortages are also analyzed.

Key Issues Addressed:

• How will the Russo-Ukrainian conflict impact the GDP growth outlook for select economies?

• How will monetary policies change in response to a rapid build-up of inflationary pressures?

• Which are the key channels of global trade disruption as a result of the conflict?

• What are the implications of trade and supply-chain reorientation for different economies?

• What are the oil price expectations for 2022?

• How will the gas market demand and supply dynamics evolve?

• How will the war impact key industries, including automotive, metals and mining, aviation, and agriculture?

Table of Contents

Strategic Imperatives

• Why is it Increasingly Difficult to Grow?
• The Strategic Imperative 8™
• The Impact of the Top Three Strategic Imperatives on the Global Macroeconomic Environment
• Growth Opportunities Fuel the Growth Pipeline Engine™

Macroeconomic Analysis, 2022

• Growth Drivers
• Growth Restraints
• Russo-Ukrainian War Further Weakens 2022 Global Growth Prospects; China and India to be Key Growth Drivers
• Europe to Feel the Worst Impact; Gulf Economies to Benefit from Soaring Oil Prices
• Trade Disruptions Emerging from Russia and Ukraine to Drive Global Supply-chain Reorientation
• Global Chip Shortages to Further Deepen; India Boosting Policy Support to Replace Wheat Exports from Russia/Ukraine
• The Russo-ukrainian War to Intensify Inflationary Pressures; Central Banks to Further Tighten Monetary Policies
• Average Brent oil prices of $112.5/barrel Expected Under Baseline Scenario; Spot Prices Could Cross $200 if EU Bans Russian Imports
• EU Working to Diversify Away from Russian Gas; Risk of Cutback in Russian Gas Supply or Damage to Ukrainian Pipelines Lingers
• Aviation Industry Challenged by Higher Fuel Costs and Rerouting; Higher Input Costs and Staples Scarcity to Raise Food Production Costs
• Automotive Production to be Restrained by Input Shortages and Higher Metals Costs; Slowing Demand and Higher Energy Costs to Temper Metal Ore Demand
• Policy Priorities-How are Global Governments Responding?
• Global Economic Impact Summary

Growth Opportunity Universe

• Growth Opportunity-Local and Export-oriented Manufacturing Opportunities Across Agriculture, Energy, and Metals
• Growth Opportunity-Local and Export-oriented Manufacturing Opportunities Across Agriculture, Energy, and Metals (continued)
• List of Exhibits
• Legal Disclaimer