潤滑油添加剤の世界市場：2024年～2031年

概要

世界の潤滑油添加剤市場は2023年に165億米ドルに達し、2031年には206億米ドルに達すると予測され、予測期間2024-2031年のCAGRは2.8%で成長します。

ウクライナで進行中の戦争に影響された軍備・軍需生産の伸びは、今後数年間における冶金・金属加工分野の潤滑油添加剤需要拡大の主要因となると思われます。世界の大国が進める軍事近代化の動向は、予測期間中も需要を高水準に保つと思われます。

アジア太平洋では高速鉄道の開発が進んでおり、現在インド、インドネシア、ベトナム、タイで新たなプロジェクトが建設中であることから、鉄道業界における高性能潤滑油添加剤の需要は今後数年間で増加すると思われます。原油価格の変動は、予測期間中の世界市場の成長に大きく影響します。原油価格が高騰すれば、すべての主要エンドユーザーの投入コストが上昇し、業界の技術革新が阻害されることになります。

市場力学

電気自動車の生産拡大

パンデミック後の一時期は、電気自動車の生産と販売のブームに拍車をかけた。広範な経済復興の一環として政府が自動車産業を刺激したことで、バッテリー技術と自動車生産技術が飛躍的に進歩しました。2023年には1,420万台近くのバッテリー電気自動車（BEV）が販売され、EVの量産が始まって以来最高の伸びを示しました。従来の自動車メーカーの多くは、EV生産へのシフトを計画しているか、既存のガソリン車やディーゼル車のポートフォリオをハイブリッド車に転換しています。

アナリストは、電気自動車の価格は今後数年でさらに低下し、ほとんどのモデルが今後4～5年でガソリン車やディーゼル車と同等の価格になると予想しています。米国と中国は、EV全体の価格が最も低下しています。フォーブス誌のデータによると、米国のEV平均価格は2023年半ばには約4万5,000米ドルとなり、前年の約5万9,000米ドルから大幅に低下しました。

中国は、サプライチェーンの熟練と大きな生産能力によって、電気自動車の価格をプレミアムガソリン車やディーゼル車のレベルまでほぼ引き下げました。欧米のEVの平均価格帯が3万5,000～4万5,000米ドルであるのに比べ、中国のEVの平均価格はおよそ1万米ドルからです。電気自動車の市場開拓が進むことで、世界の潤滑油添加剤市場に新たな成長機会がもたらされます。バッテリー・クーラント、特殊グリース、次世代ブレーキ液に使用される新しいタイプの潤滑添加剤への需要が高まると思われます。

より良い潤滑に対する産業界の需要の高まり

産業部門は、近代的な産業運営に必要なエネルギー・コストの上昇を踏まえ、エネルギー消費と運営経費の削減を試みています。機械の性能を高い水準で維持するため、高温高圧条件下での潤滑油の性能を飛躍的に向上させることを視野に入れ、工業用潤滑油の新たな進歩が検討されています。

National Lubricating Grease Institute（NGLI）は独自の試験を実施し、合成潤滑油添加剤は密度、粘度、分子量が高く、その結果、潤滑されたギアの摩擦が低くなることを発見しました。さらに、PAGとPAOベースのギア潤滑油添加剤は、低温での撹拌損失が減少し、ギアの侵食が減少するため、円筒ギアのメンテナンスコストの低減を支援します。2024年6月、ラクスネスは性能向上のための工業用潤滑油添加剤と金属加工油の新シリーズ、アディティンの発売を発表しました。

世界の原油価格の変動

世界の石油・商品市場は、パンデミックの発生中と発生後に不安定な動きを見せた。パンデミックの初期、需要が落ち込んだため、石油価格は急落し、2020年4月にはマイナスに転じた。原油価格は2021年の大半は1バレル当たり50～75米ドルの領域で推移したが、ロシア・ウクライナ戦争の影響で1バレル当たり120米ドルを超える水準まで急騰しました。原油価格の変動は、潤滑油添加剤市場にさまざまな二次的影響をもたらしました。

原油価格の変動により産業活動と個人消費が広く影響を受け、自動車、建設、金属加工、航空、HVACなど多様なセクターの潤滑油添加剤需要に影響を及ぼします。このような変動は、長期的な計画に支障をきたし、生産能力の拡大を妨げるため、生産者の観点からも望ましくないです。

目次

第1章 調査手法と調査範囲

第2章 定義と概要

第3章 エグゼクティブサマリー

第4章 市場力学

• 影響要因
  • 促進要因
    • 電気自動車の生産拡大
    • より良い潤滑油に対する産業界の需要の高まり
  • 抑制要因
    • 世界の石油価格の変動
  • 機会
  • 影響分析

第5章 産業分析

• ポーターのファイブフォース分析
• サプライチェーン分析
• 価格分析
• 規制分析
• ロシア・ウクライナ戦争影響分析
• DMIの見解

第6章 COVID-19分析

第7章 機能別

• 分散剤
• 粘度調整剤
• 摩耗防止剤および極圧添加剤
• 腐食防止剤
• 酸化防止剤
• 乳化剤
• 摩擦調整剤
• その他

第8章 潤滑油別

• エンジンオイル
• 作動油
• トランスミッションオイル
• 金属加工油
• グリース
• 工業用ギアオイル
• コンクリート離型剤
• チェーンソーオイル
• コンプレッサーオイル
• その他

第9章 エンドユーザー別

• 自動車
• 機関車
• 航空宇宙・防衛
• HVAC
• 建築・建設
• 冶金・金属加工
• その他

第10章 地域別

• 北米
  • 米国
  • カナダ
  • メキシコ
• 欧州
  • ドイツ
  • 英国
  • フランス
  • イタリア
  • ロシア
  • その他欧州
• 南米
  • ブラジル
  • アルゼンチン
  • その他南米
• アジア太平洋
  • 中国
  • インド
  • 日本
  • オーストラリア
  • その他アジア太平洋地域
• 中東・アフリカ

第11章 競合情勢

• 競合シナリオ
• 市況/シェア分析
• M&A分析

第12章 企業プロファイル

• BASF SE
  • 会社概要
  • 潤滑油のポートフォリオと概要
  • 財務概要
  • 主な発展
• Lanxess
• Afton Chemical
• Chevron Oronite Company LLC
• Croda International Plc
• Evonik Industries AG
• Infineum International Limited
• The Lubrizol Corporation
• Shamrock Oils & Petrochemicals
• Jinzhou Tianhe Chemicals Co Ltd

第13章 付録

Overview

Global Lubricant Additives Market reached US$ 16.5 billion in 2023 and is expected to reach US$ 20.6 billion by 2031, growing with a CAGR of 2.8% during the forecast period 2024-2031.

The growth in military equipment and armaments production influenced by the ongoing war in Ukraine will become a major factor behind the growing demand for lubricant additives in the metallurgy and metalworking sector over the next few years. A trend of military modernization pursued by major global powers is likely to keep demand high during the forecast period.

With the ongoing development of high-speed rail in Asia-Pacific, with new projects currently under construction in India, Indonesia, Vietnam, and Thailand, the demand for high-performance lubricant additives in the railway industry will increase over the upcoming years. The volatility in crude oil will have a major bearing on the growth of the global market during the forecast period. If oil prices experience a spike, it will increase input costs for all major end-users and discourage innovation in the industry.

Dynamics

Growing Production of Electric Vehicles

The post-pandemic period has fueled a boom in the production and sales of electric vehicles. Government stimulus to the automotive industry as part of a broad-based economic revival has led to breakthroughs in battery technology and vehicle production techniques. Nearly 14.2 million battery electric vehicles (BEVs) were sold in 2023, marking the highest increase since EV mass production began. Many conventional vehicle manufacturers are either planning to shift towards EV production or are converting their existing portfolio of gasoline and diesel vehicles into hybrid cars.

Analysts expect the price of electric vehicles to decrease further in the coming years, with most models achieving price parity with petrol and diesel-based cars in the next 4 to 5 years. The U.S. and China have witnessed the largest decrease in overall EV prices. According to data from Forbes magazine, the average EV price in the U.S. was around US$ 45,000 in mid-2023, significantly down from nearly US$ 59,000 during the previous year.

Through mastery of the supply chain and large production capacity, China has almost brought down electric vehicle prices to the level of premium petrol and diesel vehicles. The average price for a Chinese EV begins at roughly US$ 10,000 as compared to a western EV which retails for an average price range of US$ 35,000 to US$ 45,000. The ongoing development of electric vehicles opens up new growth opportunities for the global lubricant additives market. It will propel the demand for new types of lubricant additives to be used in battery coolants, specialty greases, and the next generation of brake fluids.

Growing Industrial Demand for Better Lubrication

The industrial sector is attempting to reduce energy consumption and operating expenses in light of the rising cost of energy to power modern industrial operations. To keep machinery performing at high standards, new advances in industrial lubrication are being considered with a view to drastically improving lubricant performance under high temperature and pressure conditions.

The National Lubricating Grease Institute (NGLI) performed independent testing that found that synthetic lubricant additives had higher density, viscosity, and molecular weight, which resulted in lower friction in lubricated gears. Additionally, PAG & PAO-based gear lubricant additives assist in lowering maintenance costs in cylindrical gears due to decreased churning losses at lower temperatures and less gear erosion. In June 2024, Laxness announced the launch of Additin, a new range of industrial lubricant additives and metalworking fluids for improved performance.

Volatility in Global Oil Prices

The global oil and commodities market demonstrated volatility during and after the pandemic. In the initial days of the pandemic, as demand depressed, oil prices crashed precipitously, even turning negative in April 2020. Oil prices remained in US$ 50-75 per barrel territory for most of 2021, before spiking to over US$ 120 per barrel on account of the Russia-Ukraine war. The volatility of oil prices caused various second-order impacts on the lubricant additives market.

Industrial activity and consumer spending are broadly affected due to the volatility in oil prices, thus affecting demand for lubricant additives in diverse sectors like automotive, construction, metalworking, aviation, and HVAC. Such volatility is also undesirable from the producer's point of view since it creates hurdles toward long-term planning and discourages production capacity expansion.

Segment Analysis

The global lubricant additives market is segmented based on function, lubricant, end-user, and region.

The Automotive Industry Will Continue to Remain Among the Biggest Demand Generators

The global automotive industry sustained the brunt of the pandemic relatively well and was on the road to recovery by the middle of 2022. Recovery was much faster in emerging markets like India and China, which saw a large, pent-up demand during the pandemic period. Government stimulus to boost the automotive industry has also been a key factor in driving the recovery. Data from the International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers (OICA) found that nearly 93.54 million passenger and commercial vehicles were produced in 2023, indicating a jump of nearly 10% from the previous year.

The production of electric vehicles has also received a boost in the post-pandemic period. All these factors have led to the creation of highly favorable growth conditions for the global lubricant additives market in the automotive sector. Many companies are actively working towards introducing lubricant additives derived from sustainable, bio-based sources. For example, in April 2024, DIC Corporation, a Japanese chemical company, unveiled a new algae oil-based extreme pressure additive for use in automotive lubricating oils and metalworking fluids.

Geographical Penetration

Lubricant Additive Demand to Remain High in Asia-Pacific

Asia-Pacific is the largest region for the lubricant additives market driven by the growth of the automotive, construction, and metallurgy sectors in the region. As the regional automotive industry expands, there is a parallel rise in the need for lubricant additives to maintain vehicle performance. China is the largest automotive producer with data from Nikkei Asia indicating 30 million units of automotive sales in the country in 2023.

The metallurgy and metalworking industry is also expected to become another major source of demand for lubricant additives during the forecast period, mainly due to the growth of shipbuilding activities in China, Japan, and South Korea. Emerging countries like India are also taking steps to boost their shipbuilding capacity, mainly to build up their naval forces. Asia-Pacific will continue to account for a major share of the global market during the forecast period.

Competitive Landscape

The major global players in the market include BASF SE, Lanxess, Afton Chemical, Chevron Oronite Company LLC, Croda International Plc, Evonik Industries AG, Infineum International Limited, The Lubrizol Corporation, Shamrock Oils & Petrochemicals and Jinzhou Tianhe Chemicals Co Ltd.

COVID-19 Impact Analysis

COVID-19 made a major impact on the lubricant additives market as a result of depression in economic activity across various sectors. Overall usage of passenger and commercial vehicles dropped sharply during the pandemic, thus consequently leading to decreased demand for lubricant additives. Locomotive and aerospace sectors also witnessed a major drop in demand.

Furthermore, the industrial sector also had setbacks due to shutdowns and labor shortages, which led to a decline in demand for industrial lubricants. The lockdowns and reduced travel had a significant negative impact on the demand for passenger vehicle lubricants. Maintenance cycles were disrupted and vehicle usage decreased. Also, lubrication played a critical role during the resumption of industrial activities. With industrial production rebounding in the pandemic aftermath, the demand for lubricant additives has also

Russia-Ukraine War Impact Analysis

The Russia-Ukraine war made a significant impact on the lubricant additives market resulting conflict has led to disruptions in supply chains, industries, and economies, impacting both the demand and supply of lubricants. The invasion of Ukraine by Russia caused a sudden spike in crude oil prices, which were already rising due to factors like global economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic. The uncertainty and geopolitical tensions resulting from the war have highlighted the vulnerability of the energy industry and the need for resilience.

Some countries released oil from their strategic reserves to stabilize prices and supply, while others aimed to boost domestic production. The volatile energy situation prompted nations to reconsider their energy policies and diversify their energy mixes to reduce dependence on a single supplier. As the conflict continues, the global lubricant market will likely continue to be influenced by geopolitical dynamics and efforts to ensure energy stability.

By Function

• Dispersants
• Viscosity Modifiers
• Anti-Wear and Extreme Pressure Additives
• Corrosion Inhibitors
• Anti-Oxidants
• Emulsifiers
• Friction Modifiers
• Others

By Lubricant

• Engine Oil
• Hydraulic Oil
• Transmission Oil
• Metalworking Oils
• Greases
• Industrial Gear Oils
• Concrete Release Agents
• Chainsaw Oils
• Compressor Oils
• Others

By End-User

• Automotive
• Locomotive
• Aerospace & Defense
• HVAC
• Building & Construction
• Metallurgy & Metalworking
• Others

By Region

• North America
  • U.S.
  • Canada
  • Mexico
• Europe
  • Germany
  • UK
  • France
  • Italy
  • Russia
  • Rest of Europe
• South America
  • Brazil
  • Argentina
  • Rest of South America
• Asia-Pacific
  • China
  • India
  • Japan
  • Australia
  • Rest of Asia-Pacific
• Middle East and Africa

Key Developments

• In May 2024, Scientists at the U.S. Department of Energy's Oakland National Laboratory announced the development of new lubricant additives for the protection of water turbine equipment. The new additives demonstrated a 50% reduction in friction and a nearly ten-fold decrease in operational wear as compared to commercially available lubricant additives.
• In November 2023, Trecora LLC, a U.S.-based petrochemicals manufacturer, acquired the lubricant additives business of Chemtrade. The acquired company will become part of Trecora's specialty chemicals business based in Woodlands, Texas, U.S.

Why Purchase the Report?

• To visualize the global lubricant additives market segmentation based on function, lubricant, end-user, and region, as well as understand key commercial assets and players.
• Identify commercial opportunities by analyzing trends and co-development.
• Excel data sheet with numerous data points of cement market-level with all segments.
• PDF report consists of a comprehensive analysis after exhaustive qualitative interviews and an in-depth study.
• Lubricant mapping available as Excel consisting of key products of all the major players.

The global lubricant additives market report would provide approximately 62 tables, 69 figures, and 198 Pages.

Target Audience 2024

• Manufacturers/ Buyers
• Industry Investors/Investment Bankers
• Research Professionals
• Emerging Companies

Table of Contents

1. Methodology and Scope

• 1.1. Research Methodology
• 1.2. Research Objective and Scope of the Report

2. Definition and Overview

3. Executive Summary

• 3.1. Snippet by Function
• 3.2. Snippet by Lubricant
• 3.3. Snippet by End-User
• 3.4. Snippet by Region

4. Dynamics

• 4.1. Impacting Factors
  • 4.1.1. Drivers
    • 4.1.1.1. Growing production of electric vehicles
    • 4.1.1.2. Growing industrial demand for better lubricants
  • 4.1.2. Restraints
    • 4.1.2.1. Volatility in global oil prices
  • 4.1.3. Opportunity
  • 4.1.4. Impact Analysis

5. Industry Analysis

• 5.1. Porter's Five Force Analysis
• 5.2. Supply Chain Analysis
• 5.3. Pricing Analysis
• 5.4. Regulatory Analysis
• 5.5. Russia-Ukraine War Impact Analysis
• 5.6. DMI Opinion

6. COVID-19 Analysis

• 6.1. Analysis of COVID-19
  • 6.1.1. Scenario Before COVID-19
  • 6.1.2. Scenario During COVID-19
  • 6.1.3. Scenario Post COVID-19
• 6.2. Pricing Dynamics Amid COVID-19
• 6.3. Demand-Supply Spectrum
• 6.4. Government Initiatives Related to the Market During Pandemic
• 6.5. Manufacturers Strategic Initiatives
• 6.6. Conclusion

7. By Function

• 7.1. Introduction
  • 7.1.1. Market Size Analysis and Y-o-Y Growth Analysis (%), By Function
  • 7.1.2. Market Attractiveness Index, By Function
• 7.2. Dispersants*
  • 7.2.1. Introduction
  • 7.2.2. Market Size Analysis and Y-o-Y Growth Analysis (%)
• 7.3. Viscosity Modifiers
• 7.4. Anti-Wear and Extreme Pressure Additives
• 7.5. Corrosion Inhibitors
• 7.6. Anti-Oxidants
• 7.7. Emulsifiers
• 7.8. Friction Modifiers
• 7.9. Others

8. By Lubricant

• 8.1. Introduction
  • 8.1.1. Market Size Analysis and Y-o-Y Growth Analysis (%), By Lubricant
  • 8.1.2. Market Attractiveness Index, By Lubricant
• 8.2. Engine Oil*
  • 8.2.1. Introduction
  • 8.2.2. Market Size Analysis and Y-o-Y Growth Analysis (%)
• 8.3. Hydraulic Oil
• 8.4. Transmission Oil
• 8.5. Metalworking Oils
• 8.6. Greases
• 8.7. Industrial Gear Oils
• 8.8. Concrete Release Agents
• 8.9. Chainsaw Oils
• 8.10. Compressor Oils
• 8.11. Others

9. By End-user

• 9.1. Introduction
  • 9.1.1. Market Size Analysis and Y-o-Y Growth Analysis (%), By End-User
  • 9.1.2. Market Attractiveness Index, By End-User
• 9.2. Automotive*
  • 9.2.1. Introduction
  • 9.2.2. Market Size Analysis and Y-o-Y Growth Analysis (%)
• 9.3. Locomotive
• 9.4. Aerospace & Defense
• 9.5. HVAC
• 9.6. Building & Construction
• 9.7. Metallurgy & Metalworking
• 9.8. Others

10. By Region

• 10.1. Introduction
  • 10.1.1. Market Size Analysis and Y-o-Y Growth Analysis (%), By Region
  • 10.1.2. Market Attractiveness Index, By Region
• 10.2. North America
  • 10.2.1. Introduction
  • 10.2.2. Key Region-Specific Dynamics
  • 10.2.3. Market Size Analysis and Y-o-Y Growth Analysis (%), By Function
  • 10.2.4. Market Size Analysis and Y-o-Y Growth Analysis (%), By Lubricant
  • 10.2.5. Market Size Analysis and Y-o-Y Growth Analysis (%), By End-User
  • 10.2.6. Market Size Analysis and Y-o-Y Growth Analysis (%), By Country
    • 10.2.6.1. The U.S.
    • 10.2.6.2. Canada
    • 10.2.6.3. Mexico
• 10.3. Europe
  • 10.3.1. Introduction
  • 10.3.2. Key Region-Specific Dynamics
  • 10.3.3. Market Size Analysis and Y-o-Y Growth Analysis (%), By Function
  • 10.3.4. Market Size Analysis and Y-o-Y Growth Analysis (%), By Lubricant
  • 10.3.5. Market Size Analysis and Y-o-Y Growth Analysis (%), By End-User
  • 10.3.6. Market Size Analysis and Y-o-Y Growth Analysis (%), By Country
    • 10.3.6.1. Germany
    • 10.3.6.2. UK
    • 10.3.6.3. France
    • 10.3.6.4. Italy
    • 10.3.6.5. Russia
    • 10.3.6.6. Rest of Europe
• 10.4. South America
  • 10.4.1. Introduction
  • 10.4.2. Key Region-Specific Dynamics
  • 10.4.3. Market Size Analysis and Y-o-Y Growth Analysis (%), By Function
  • 10.4.4. Market Size Analysis and Y-o-Y Growth Analysis (%), By Lubricant
  • 10.4.5. Market Size Analysis and Y-o-Y Growth Analysis (%), By End-User
  • 10.4.6. Market Size Analysis and Y-o-Y Growth Analysis (%), By Country
    • 10.4.6.1. Brazil
    • 10.4.6.2. Argentina
    • 10.4.6.3. Rest of South America
• 10.5. Asia-Pacific
  • 10.5.1. Introduction
  • 10.5.2. Key Region-Specific Dynamics
  • 10.5.3. Market Size Analysis and Y-o-Y Growth Analysis (%), By Function
  • 10.5.4. Market Size Analysis and Y-o-Y Growth Analysis (%), By Lubricant
  • 10.5.5. Market Size Analysis and Y-o-Y Growth Analysis (%), By End-User
  • 10.5.6. Market Size Analysis and Y-o-Y Growth Analysis (%), By Country
    • 10.5.6.1. China
    • 10.5.6.2. India
    • 10.5.6.3. Japan
    • 10.5.6.4. Australia
    • 10.5.6.5. Rest of Asia-Pacific
• 10.6. Middle East and Africa
  • 10.6.1. Introduction
  • 10.6.2. Key Region-Specific Dynamics
  • 10.6.3. Market Size Analysis and Y-o-Y Growth Analysis (%), By Function
  • 10.6.4. Market Size Analysis and Y-o-Y Growth Analysis (%), By Lubricant
  • 10.6.5. Market Size Analysis and Y-o-Y Growth Analysis (%), By End-User

11. Competitive Landscape

• 11.1. Competitive Scenario
• 11.2. Market Positioning/Share Analysis
• 11.3. Mergers and Acquisitions Analysis

12. Company Profiles

• 12.1. BASF SE*
  • 12.1.1. Company Overview
  • 12.1.2. Lubricant Portfolio and Description
  • 12.1.3. Financial Overview
  • 12.1.4. Key Developments
• 12.2. Lanxess
• 12.3. Afton Chemical
• 12.4. Chevron Oronite Company LLC
• 12.5. Croda International Plc
• 12.6. Evonik Industries AG
• 12.7. Infineum International Limited
• 12.8. The Lubrizol Corporation
• 12.9. Shamrock Oils & Petrochemicals
• 12.10. Jinzhou Tianhe Chemicals Co Ltd

LIST NOT EXHAUSTIVE

13. Appendix

• 13.1. About Us and Services
• 13.2. Contact Us