表紙:RANの自動化市場 - SON、RIC、SMO:AIを搭載したSONが輝き続け、非RTのRICとSMOが躍進(2024年10月)
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RANの自動化市場 - SON、RIC、SMO:AIを搭載したSONが輝き続け、非RTのRICとSMOが躍進(2024年10月)

RAN Automation - SON, RIC, SMO: The AI-Powered SON Keeps Shining, the Non-RT RIC and the SMO are Taking Off, October 2024


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RANの自動化市場 - SON、RIC、SMO:AIを搭載したSONが輝き続け、非RTのRICとSMOが躍進(2024年10月)
出版日: 2024年10月31日
発行: Teral Research
ページ情報: 英文
納期: お問合せ
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概要

今世紀初頭に第3世代パートナーシップ・プロジェクト(3GPP)によって定義されたSON(自己組織化ネットワーク)アルゴリズムは、人の手を介さずに自動的にモバイル・ネットワークを構成し、最適化します。ネットワークが膨大な量のトラフィックを処理し、いくつかの世代が追加されてますます複雑化するにつれて、SONアルゴリズムは機械学習(ML)や人工知能(AI)アルゴリズムと融合しています。

当レポートでは、集中型SON(C-SON)ソフトウェアとサービスの収益市場を追跡し、規模、予測、ベンダー市場シェアを提供し、オープンRAN、オープン仮想RAN、ソフトウェア定義RAN(SD-RAN)アーキテクチャで必要とされるRANインテリジェントコントローラ(RIC)のアプリとなるC-SONモジュールと使用事例の進化を分析します。また、O-RANで定義されたサービス管理とオーケストレーション(SMO)市場も追跡し、非リアルタイムRIC rAppsとニアリアルタイムRIC xAppsの内訳を示します。

目次

概要

重要なポイント

AI搭載のSONは輝き続ける

  • 2008年にNGMNにより定義され、3GPPによってREL.8で標準化されたSONは、10年以上前から存在し、2010年にLTEの展開が始まったときに普及した
  • 2023年、SONソフトウェアおよびサービスの全世界の収益は前年比2%増加
  • オープンRANの出現により、SONのユースケースはアプリへと変化している

平穏は終わり、AT&Tが流れを変え、非RT RIC、ITS RAPPS、SMOが躍進

  • 信じられないことに、C-SON市場開拓の歴史は繰り返される
  • 5GオープンRANに組み込まれたRICは複雑であり、AT&Tの思い切った取り組みのおかげでプライムタイムに向けて進み続ける
  • これらすべてがSMO市場を牽引する
目次

Defined by the Third Generation Partnership Project (3GPP) at the beginning of this century, SON (self-organizing network) algorithms configure and optimize mobile networks automatically without human interaction. As networks handle vast amounts of traffic and become more and more complex through the addition of several generations, SON algorithms are blended with machine learning (ML) and artificial intelligence (AI) algorithms. This report tracks the centralized SON (C-SON) software and services revenue market, provides size, forecast and vendor market shares, and analyzes the evolution of C-SON modules and use cases becoming apps in the RAN Intelligent Controller (RIC) needed in open RAN, open virtual RAN, and software defined RAN (SD-RAN) architectures. This report also tracks the O-RAN defined service management and orchestration (SMO) market and provides a breakdown between non-Real Time RIC rApps and near-Real Time RIC xApps.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

ABSTRACT

KEY TAKEAWAYS

IT'S AMAZING, THE AI-POWERED SON KEEPS SHINING!

  • DEFINED BY THE NGMN IN 2008 AND STANDARDIZED BY THE 3GPP IN REL.8, SON HAS BEEN AROUND FOR OVER A DECADE AND TOOK OFF WHEN LTE ROLLOUTS STARTED IN 2010
    • Already in 2010, zero touch network closed-loop automation was the C-SON grand vision
  • IN 2023, GLOBAL SON SOFTWARE AND SERVICES REVENUE GREW 2% YOY
    • This year, we forecast the global SON market to keep growing at low single digits
    • In 2024, EMEA and Asia Pacific will more than offset the decline in North America
    • C-SON sales have never grown proportionally to the number of mobile networks
    • With or without C-SON, LTE networks are running fine, so are 5G NSA ones
    • If every single LTE network was equipped with a C-SON, we believe global C-SON software and services would be more than $8B at this point
    • This 2024 peak coincides with the open vRAN uptake
    • C-SON has always been a tough sell
    • As a result, the C-SON ecosystem has shrunk to 10 active players
    • While focusing on Non-RT RIC, most players are still investing in SON use cases
    • Our estimates indicate Nokia continues to lead C-SON sales market shares
  • WITH THE EMERGENCE OF OPEN RAN, SON USE CASES ARE MORPHING INTO APPS
    • Since 2017, AT&T has been driving the ONAP and open RAN efforts
    • Fueled by geopolitics, open RAN accelerated the development of the RIC and the SMO
    • Leveraging the TIP and the O-RAN Alliance, the ONF SDN'ized the RAN
    • Deutsche Telekom rushed to trial SD-RAN but that was it!
    • In April 2022, Intel acquired the ONF development team and Ananki
    • in 2021, we developed a RIC and SMO model based on the O-RAN Alliance framework
    • In August 2023, the O-RAN Alliance released a vision of the NIC, the evolution of the RIC
    • In the meantime, open RAN networks run fine with C-SON, which is here to stay longer than many think
    • Only Dish operates a 5G-only open RAN footprint, open RAN started in 4G LTE

THE LULL IS OVER, AT&T IS CHANGING THE GAME, THE NON-RT RIC, ITS RAPPS AND THE SMO ARE TAKING OFF

  • IT'S UNBELIEVABLE, THE C-SON MARKET DEVELOPMENT HISTORY REPEATS ITSELF
  • BAKED IN 5G OPEN RAN, RIC IS COMPLEX AND IS HEADING FOR PRIME TIME, THANKS TO AT&T FOR TAKING THE PLUNGE
    • Like its C-SON predecessor, RIC uses AI and ML, and needs to send back instructions to the RAN
    • Consequently, the Non-RT RIC is taking off for good
    • In 2027, we expect 100% of C-SON sales and services to be in the form of a non-RT RIC rApps
    • The xApp will have to wait because the training requires a vast amount of RAN scenarios that can be generated to reproduce real events
    • The Near-Real Time RIC market is unleashing D-SON use cases that until now were proprietary and controlled by the RAN vendors; they still are though!
    • CSPs have plenty of questions about the near-real time RIC
    • The App ecosystem is mushrooming...
    • ...some, particularly in the RIC domain, won't make it
  • ALL THIS DRIVES THE SMO MARKET
    • Coming out of a lull, the SMO market is poised for a rapid ramp up, and will be the largest opportunity as it gradually replaces the OSS
    • Asia Pacific will be the largest SMO market throughout the forecast period