日本の無線インフラ市場：2024年4月

当レポートでは、日本の無線インフラ市場に焦点を当て、楽天モバイルの紹介と日本政府によるオープンRANの推進がもたらす影響を分析します。また、2023年に関する詳細なデータと、2024年の見通し、5年間のRAN予測なども提供しています。

目次

概要

重要なポイント

2023年：4Gから5Gへの移行が見られたが、市場を成長領域に維持するには不十分

• 実際に配備された5Gユニットの2.7倍を予想
• 予想よりも販売台数が少なかったため、売上予測は下落したが、平均販売価格の上昇により一部相殺
• 5Gに投資する強い動機はまだない
• オープンRAN BTSは2023年に導入されるユニット全体の43%を占めた
• 市場シェアを落としながらもEricssonは1位を維持、Nokia、Fujitsu 、NECは2023年にシェアを拡大
• NokiaはEricssonとの差を縮め続けた
• NECが3位に返り咲く
• Samsungの3年間にわたる上昇は2023年に停滞したが、ベンダーはFujitsu を上回ったまま
• Fujitsu は国内に拠点を置きながら、堅調な国際ビジネスを展開
• 2024年は良くても横ばいで5Gが満載
• オープン仮想RANは2028年までに5G RANユニット全体の95%を占める可能性がある

日本は5GオープンVRANアイランドがどのようなものか世界に示す

• 過去2年間で、Rakuten Symphonyは急速に拡大し、世界を征服し始めた
• 昨年、RAKUTEN SYMPHONYの世界征服は行き詰まり、著名な幹部が退社
• この勢いでFujitsu とNECはRUサプライヤーとSIチャンピオンのトップに躍り出たが、2023年に状況は変わっている
• KDDI、NTT DOCOMO、ソフトバンクはオープンRANアジェンダを積極的に推進
• ドコモ、KDDI、ソフトバンク、楽天モバイルは、協力してオープンRANの導入を加速するためにOticを設立

2018年：日本が寡占的な携帯電話市場を刷新することを決意し、オープンRANアジェンダを開始した年

• 米国の影響を受けて、日本政府はオープンRAN計画を迅速に採用
• Fujitsu とNECに市場での地位を強化するためのインセンティブを与える
• 米国はNTTとNECにオープンRAN政策連合の創設メンバーとなるよう要請
• 現在、米国と日本は6Gを含む複数の分野で協力

This report focuses on Japan's wireless infrastructure market and analyzes the implications of the introduction of Rakuten Mobile and the Japanese government's open RAN push. The publication date is scheduled a few weeks after the 4 services providers (KDDI, NTT DOCOMO, Rakuten Mobile, and Softbank) provide their interim report so that we can gather many details about 2023 and provide 2024 outlook and a 5-year RAN forecast. This report includes base station (BTS) numbers and RAN vendor market shares and analysis.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

ABSTRACT

KEY TAKEAWAYS

2023 SAW A SHIFT FROM 4G TO 5G, BUT IT WAS NOT ENOUGH TO KEEP THE MARKET IN GROWTH TERRITORY

• We expected 2.7x more 5G units than what was deployed
• Fewer units than anticipated sunk the sales forecast, a decline partially offset by the rise of ASP
• There is still no strong motivation to invest in 5G
• Open RAN BTS accounted for 43% of total units deployed in 2023
• While losing market share, Ericsson stay #1, Nokia, Fujitsu and NEC gained share in 2023
• Nokia continued to close the gap with Ericsson
• NEC is back to #3
• Samsung's 3-year long ascension stalled in 2023 but the vendor managed to stay ahead of Fujitsu
• While keeping a foot in its home turf, Fujitsu enjoys a robust international business

• 2024 IS LOOKING FLAT AT BEST AND 5G LOADED
  • The MIC's roadmad leads to a peak followed by a huge drop
  • The Japanese government's initial 5G plan was published in April 2019
  • Outdoor 5G deployments will remain above 70% throughout the forecast period

• OPEN VIRTUAL RAN HAS THE POTENTIAL TO ACCOUNT FOR 95% OF TOTAL 5G RAN UNITS BY 2028
  • The open vRAN ramp up is expected in 2025
  • The 4 service providers pointed out that the availability of the RAN intelligent controller (RIC) is fundamental for the success of open vRAN moving forward
  • Japan's open RAN-based 5G BTS configuration simplifies the counting process, it is site counting
  • Japan's 5G looks like 1 site = 1 CU (including the DU)

JAPAN IS SHOWING THE WORLD WHAT A 5G OPEN VRAN ISLAND LOOKS LIKE...

• OVER THE PAST 2 YEARS, RAKUTEN SYMPHONY QUICKLY EXPANDED AND STARTED TO CONQUER THE WORLD...
  • The telecom world welcomes symworld, the nf app marketplace
  • It was already obvious from the beginiing with its initiatives in the U.S. and Germany that Rakuten Mobile had bigger ambitions than solely acting as Japan's 4th mobile operator.
  • Qualcomm came to the 5G open ran massive mimo rescue
  • AT&T turned to Rakuten Symphony for network planning help
  • Cisco brought its mobile, switching & routing, and automation portfolio to Rakuten Symphony
  • Rakuten Symphony added robin.io to its quiver
  • Rakuten Symphony selected nokia's cloud native software as first symworld partner
  • Perhaps the icing on the cake? Ajit Pai joined the party
  • Lastly, Rakuten Symphony went to africa with MTN

• BUT LAST YEAR, RAKUTEN SYMPHONY'S CONQUEST OF THE WORLD HAS STALLED, HIGH-PROFILE EXECUTIVES DEPARTED
  • At MWC24, the signature of a letter of intent and a memorandum of understanding was the latest sale news we heard

• THIS MOMENTUM MADE FUJITSU AND NEC TOP RU SUPPLIERS AND SI CHAMPIONS BUT THINGS CHANGED IN 2023
  • Since the start of Rakuten Mobile's network buildout in 2H19, Japan's domestic champions Fujitsu and NEC have been busy both at home and in international markets

• KDDI, NTT DOCOMO, AND SOFTBANK ARE ACTIVELY PUSHING THE OPEN RAN AGENDA
  • In February 2022, KDDI successfully turned on the world's first 5G SA open vRAN site
  • In March 2022, NTT docomo adopted the Rakuten Symphony playbook
  • docomo's Shared Open Lab leverages its OREC initiatives
  • At MWC23, docomo rebranded its OREC project OREX
  • At MWC24, docomo and NEC launched OREX SAI
  • At MWC24, SoftBank, NEC and VMware announced that they have jointly verified RAN virtualization by converging telco cloud with an O-RAN architecture

• AND LASTLY, DOCOMO, KDDI, SOFTBANK AND RAKUTEN MOBILE FORMED OTIC TO COMBINE EFFORTS AND ACCELERATE OPEN RAN ADOPTION

2018 WAS THE YEAR JAPAN DECIDED TO SHAKE UP ITS OLIGOPOLISTIC MOBILE MARKET, WHICH KICKED OFF THE OPEN RAN AGENDA

• INFLUENCED BY THE U.S., THE JAPANESE GOVERNMENT QUICKLY ADOPTED THE OPEN RAN AGENDA...
• ...AND GIVING INCENTIVES TO FUJITSU AND NEC TO STRENGTHEN THEIR MARKET POSITION
• THE U.S. ALSO ASKED NTT AND NEC TO BE FOUNDING MEMBERS OF THE OPEN RAN POLICY COALITION
• AND NOW THE U.S. AND JAPAN ARE COLLABORATING ON MULTIPLE FRONTS, INCLUDING 6G