無線インフラの世界市場：2024年第1四半期 (2024年5月)

当レポートでは、世界の無線インフラ市場の最新情勢 (2024年第1四半期現在) について分析し、2G・3G・4G・5G 無線アクセスネットワーク (RAN ) とコアネットワークノードを対象としています。各地域 (北米、中東・アフリカ、アジア太平洋、カリブ海ラテンアメリカ) の2G/3G/4G/5G RAN (Open vRANを含む) とコアネットワーク (EPC、vEPC、5GC) について、過去の市場データ (2016～2023年) の推移や、市場規模・ベンダー別市場シェアの最新データ (四半期ベース) 、詳細な市場予測 (～2029年)、といった情報を取りまとめてお届けいたします。

過去のデータには、30社以上の無線インフラベンダーの売上高が含まれており、その中にはTERAL RESEARCHと機密の販売データを共有したベンダー数社も含まれています。市場予測は、無線インフラベンダーの売上高と、サービスプロバイダーの過去20年分のネットワーク展開パターンの分析、更新・拡張計画との相関モデルに基づいています。

目次

概要

重要なポイント：2024年第1四半期、無線インフラ市場は調整領域に突入した兆候を見せる

2024年第1四半期に呼び起こされる、今世紀初頭とLTE以降のピーク期の記憶

• このパターンは、2002年と2003年に起こった出来事に似ている
• そして、LTE以後のピーク期にも似ている
• 中東・アフリカのみで、注目すべき活動が生じた
• モバイルコア以外の全カテゴリーが、2024年第1四半期に減少を経験
• 5Gの導入ペースは遅いが、兆しは依然として明るい
  • 前回の5Gコアセクションで述べた通り、SAへのより迅速な移行が強く望まれている
  • LTE-AとVoLTEの更新の可能性：依然として驚異的
  • IMSの必要性は、かつてなく高まっている：音声通話の何が問題なのか？
  • 新たなEPCの必要性は消えつつあるが、通信容量の拡大は続いている
• NokiaとZTEを犠牲にして、Huaweiがシェアを拡大して1位を維持
  • RAN市場シェアでは、HuaweiとEricssonがわずかにシェアを拡大した
• コアネットワークでは、Huawei・ZTEが合計で58%の市場シェアを獲得し、Ericssonは2位を維持
  • 5G SAへの移行が長期にわたって遅延し、5Gコアの販売が引き続き阻害される
  • Ericssonの報告と現実の間には、大きな乖離がある
  • 仮想EPC (vEPC) の販売で、Huaweiが第1位に返り咲く
  • EPC/vEPC市場でのシェア獲得・維持：難しい綱渡りの行為

正しく予測された通り、2023年にはピークが過ぎて投資撤退サイクルの2年目となり、2024年は3年目となります。

• しかし、4Gと同様に5Gもロングテールを持ち得る
• 2023年第4四半期分の更新 (2024年4月発行) 以降、当社の予測に変更は無い
  • 2023年第4四半期分の更新：短期・長期予測の下方修正
• 当レポートの冒頭で述べたように、市場は調整領域に入った
• AT&TのOpen RAN計画により、北米は今年再び成長地域となる
  • 5Gのピーク後、他の地域は、良くても下落か横ばいの見通し

無線インフラ市場の長期予測：減少傾向を示しています

• 一部の国で禁止された中国系ベンダーの撤退により、4G・5G装置の中古市場が活況を呈して、他の市場を圧倒しており、それが事態を悪化させる
  • ドイツがHuaweiの5G機器の撤去を進めているため、2024年から2025年にかけて、中古キットの新たなサイクルが中古市場に溢れる見通し
• 休止期間を経て、今年からOpen RANが本格始動する
  • 皮肉にも地政学的な要因が、Ericsson・Nokia・Samsung主導のOpen RANエコシステムと、従来型5G RANの展開の両方を促進させる
• アジア太平洋：世界最大のワイヤレスネットワークの拠点であり、今後も最大の市場であり続ける
• 北米：アジア太平洋に次ぐ、世界第2位の無線インフラ市場
• EMEA (欧州・中東・アフリカ)：5G市場は2029年まで縮小が続く
• CALA (カリブ海・ラテンアメリカ) の回復傾向：今後の成長への期待

This report analyzes the 1Q24 wireless infrastructure market worldwide and covers 2G, 3G, 4G and 5G radio access network (RAN) and core network nodes. It presents historical data from 2016 to 2023, quarterly market size and vendor market shares, and a detailed market forecast through 2029 for 2G/3G/4G/5G RAN, including Open vRAN, and core networks (EPC, vEPC, and 5GC), for each region (North America, Europe Middle East Africa, Asia Pacific, Caribbean Latin America).

The historical data accounts for the sales of more than 30 wireless infrastructure vendors, including a few vendors that shared confidential sales data with TERAL RESEARCH. The market forecast is based on a model correlating wireless infrastructure vendor sales with 20 years of service provider network rollout pattern analysis, and upgrade and expansion plans.

About the Author

Stephane Teral, Founder & Chief Analyst

With over 35 years of experience in the telecommunications industry, including 28 years in Silicon Valley, Stephane Teral is regarded as one of the top analysts in his field, having been the trusted advisor at some of the world's largest telecom providers and manufacturers. He specializes in next-generation wireless infrastructure including 5G and 6G, network disaggregation and automation, cloud and quantum networking, programmable core networks and communications service provider digital transformation.

As an advisor to start-ups, service providers, vendors and the investment community, Stephane helps clients identify new market opportunities, conducts due diligence, and advises on positioning, product development, business plans and M&A. A highly sought thinker and speaker, Stephane is frequently quoted in prestigious publications such as The Economist, Nikkei Asia, Le Monde, Les Echos, L'Usine Nouvelle, Barron's, and The Wall Street Journal. He also chairs and presents at global industry events including Brooklyn 6G Summit, FYUZ, GSMA Mobile World Congress, OCP Regional Summit, and NGMN IC&E. Stephane has been a frequent expert judge for industry and technology innovation awards, such as the GSMA Global Mobile Awards (the GLOMOS), and the Layer123 World Congress.

Stephane founded TERAL RESEARCH in January 2023 after 2 years as a Chief Analyst at LightCounting, which he joined in May 2020, after serving as a Technology Fellow at IHS Markit where he was also rewarded with the 2016 Market Research Excellence Award. Previously, he spent 8 years as a principal analyst at Infonetics Research after starting his analyst career at RHK, where he developed the European optical coverage and helped carriers migrate from PSTN to next-generation networks. Prior to RHK, he was an R&D engineer and project manager with Alcatel where he deployed the CATV optical networks that allowed the 1992 Olympics and the grand opening of Euro Disney to be televised using fiber optics for the first time. Stephane is a McGowan Scholar at the McLaren School of Business of the University of San Francisco where he received his MBA with an emphasis in telecommunications. He holds an engineering degree in telecommunications from the Institut Polytechnique de Paris, France.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

ABSTRACT

KEY TAKEAWAYS: 1Q24 SIGNALED THE WIRELESS INFRASTRUCTURE MARKET HAS ENTERED CORRECTION TERRITORY

1Q24 BRINGS BACK MEMORIES OF THE BEGINNING OF THE CENTURY AND THE POST-LTE PEAK ERA

• THIS PATTERN IS SIMILAR TO WHAT HAPPENED IN 2002 AND 2003...
• ...AND IN THE POST-LTE PEAK ERA
• THE MIDDLE EAST & AFRICA WAS THE ONLY REGION WITH NOTABLE ACTIVITY
• ALL CATEGORIES BUT MOBILE CORE EXPERIENCED A DECLINE IN 1Q24
• EVEN WITH A SLOWER PACE OF ROLLOUTS, 5G REMAINS THE BRIGHT SPOT
  • As mentioned in the previous 5G core section, a faster migration to SA is greatly desired
  • The potential for LTE-A and VoLTE upgrades remains phenomenal
  • The need for IMS has never been greater, what's wrong with voice?
  • The need for new EPC is vanishing but capacity expansion continues
• HUAWEI STAYS #1 AND INCREASED ITS SHARE AT THE EXPENSE OF NOKIA AND ZTE
  • For RAN market share, Huawei and Ericsson slightly increased their share
• IN CORE NETWORKS, HUAWEI AND ZTE COMBINED COMMAND A 58% MARKET SHARE, ERICSSON STAYED #2
  • The prolonged slow migration to 5G SA continues to hinder 5G core sales
  • There is a huge disconnect between what Ericsson reports and the reality
  • In virtual EPC sales, Huawei returned to #1 position
  • Gaining or keeping market share in the EPC/vEPC market is a tough balancing act

AS RIGHTLY PREDICTED, WE HAVE PASSED THE PEAK AND 2023 WAS THE SECOND YEAR OF THE DISINVESTMENT CYCLE, 2024 WILL BE THE THIRD YEAR

• HOWEVER, LIKE 4G, 5G WILL HAVE A LONG TAIL
• WE HAVE NOT CHANGED OUR FORECASTS SINCE OUR 4Q23/2023 UPDATE PUBLISHED IN FBRUARY 2024
  • in our 4Q23 update, we revised both our short-term and long-term forecasts downward
• AS SAID AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS REPORT, THE MARKET HAS ENTERED CORRECTION TERRITORY
• AT&T's open RAN plan will bring North America back to growth spot this year
  • Post-5G peak, all other regions will be either down or flat at best

OUR LONG-TERM WIRELESS INFRASTRUCTURE MARKET FORECAST POINTS TO A DECLINING TREND

• ...FURTHER EXACERBATED BY THE VIBRANT SECONDHAND MARKET FOR 4G AND 5G EQUIPMENT COMING FROM THE REMOVAL OF THE CHINESE VENDORS BANNED IN SPECIFIC COUNTRIES THAT SWAMPS OTHER MARKETS
  • With Germany gearing up to remove Huawei's 5G equipment, we expect another cycle of used kits to flood the secondhand market sometime in 2024-2025
• AFTER THE PAUSE, OPEN RAN WILL START TO RAMP UP THIS YEAR
  • Ironically, geopolitics fueled both the open RAN ecosystem and traditional 5G RAN rollouts led by Ericsson, Nokia, and Samsung
• HOME TO THE WORLD'S LARGEST WIRELESS NETWORK FOOTPRINTS, ASIA PACIFIC WILL REMAIN THE LARGEST MARKET
• NORTH AMERICA WILL REMAIN THE WORLD'S SECOND LARGEST WIRELESS INFRASTRUCTURE MARKET AFTER ASIA PACIFIC
• EMEA'S 5G WILL DECLINE THROUGH 2029
• AND CALA IS BOUNCING BACK WITH POTENTIAL GROWTH AHEAD