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市場調査レポート
商品コード
1671371
世界のLED照明市場:動向 - データベースと参入企業の戦略(2025年)2025 Global LED Lighting Market Trend- Database and Player Strategies |
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世界のLED照明市場:動向 - データベースと参入企業の戦略(2025年) |
出版日: 2025年02月28日
発行: TrendForce
ページ情報: 英文
納期: 即日から翌営業日
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世界のLED照明の市場規模は、一般照明市場においてはマイナス成長となり、欧州、米国、中国の主要地域における需要低迷が業績を圧迫し、主要企業全体の収益減少につながっています。これとは対照的に、LEDスマート照明とニッチLED園芸照明分野は逆トレンドの成長を示しました。2025年に向けて、LED一般照明市場は、主に既存設備の改修時のLED交換需要と、高品質LED、健康的で快適なスマート照明製品への需要の高まりによって、回復すると予想されます。一方、LED園芸用照明は、垂直型照明の復活に後押しされ、次の成長段階に入るとみられます。
2024年の市場規模(単位:米ドル)は大幅に縮小しました。その主な要因は、米国連邦準備制度理事会(FRB)の高金利政策の継続、中国の深刻なデフレ、経済的・地政学的混乱の中での欧州の持続的な低迷、日本の円安の影響などです。米国、欧州、中国の3つの中核市場は、長らく照明需要の主要な供給源でしたが、2024年にはいずれも課題に直面し、全体的な需要の足を引っ張っています。これがLED照明の市場価値を押し下げました。しかし、2024年第4四半期にはLEDの普及が加速し、市場需要がやや改善したため、全体的な落ち込みはやや緩和されました。LED照明の市場規模は4.2%減の560億5,800万米ドルとなっています。
2025年に入り、世界経済は緩やかに改善すると予想されます。LED照明産業と密接な関係にある建設部門は、緩やかな回復の兆しを見せると予測されています。新規設置、改修プロジェクト、徐々に回復しつつある自治体業務やスポーツ分野を含む公共インフラ構想がLED照明産業を後押しすると予想されています。改修が必要な既存市場でのLED交換需要や、高品質、健康的、快適、スマートな照明製品への需要が高まると予想されます。とはいえ、世界のサプライチェーンが中国からシフトし、世界の生産能力が拡大し続けるにつれて、競合は激化する可能性が高いとみられています。さらに、2025年にはLED照明を保護関税制度に含める地域が増えると予想され、特に米国の関税政策が強化されることで、市場の需要が抑制される可能性があります。全体として、2025年の世界のLED照明の市場規模が566億2,600万米ドルとプラスに転じると予測しています。
2026年以降の中長期的には、ヘルスケア、先端製造業、インフラなどのセグメントを含む住宅および非住宅建設市場がLED照明産業の大きな成長を牽引すると予想されます。この成長は、脱炭素化などの持続可能な開発イニシアティブ、健康的で快適な照明環境を求める消費者需要の増加、LED製品のスマート制御システムへのアップグレードによって促進されます。しかし、世界の保護関税の台頭により需要が抑制される可能性があるため、注意が必要です。その結果、市場規模は2029年までに639億300万米ドルに達し、2024年から2029年までのCAGRは2.7%になると予測されています。
当レポートでは、世界のLED照明市場について調査し、市場の概要とともに、市場参入企業の収益ランキングと製品戦略、今後の予測などをまとめています。
According to the latest TrendForce report "2025 Global LED Lighting Market Trend- Database and Player Strategies", in 2024, the LED general lighting market experienced negative growth as sluggish demand in key regions across Europe, the United States, and China weighed on performance, leading to overall revenue declines among leading lighting companies. In contrast, the LED smart lighting and niche LED horticultural lighting segments showed countertrend growth. Toward 2025, the LED general lighting market is expected to rebound, driven primarily by the demand for LED replacements during renovation of existing installations and by the increasing demand for high-quality LEDs as well as healthy, comfortable, and smart lighting products. Meanwhile, LED horticultural lighting is poised to enter its next growth phase, fueled by a resurgence in vertical.
According to TrendForce analysis, in 2024 the market size measured in USD contracted significantly. This was primarily due to several factors: the US Federal Reserve's continued high interest rate policy, severe deflation in China, persistent weakness in Europe amid economic and geopolitical turmoil, and the impact of yen depreciation in Japan. The three core markets-the US, Europe, and China-have long been the main sources of lighting demand, but all faced challenges in 2024 that dragged down overall LED lighting market value. However, as market demand improved somewhat in 4Q24 with accelerating LED penetration, the overall decline was slightly mitigated. The LED lighting market value fell by 4.2% to USD 56.058 billion.
Entering 2025, the global economy is expected to improve moderately. The construction sector-closely linked to the LED lighting industry-is projected to show signs of a gentle recovery. New installations, renovation projects, and public infrastructure initiatives, including those in the slowly recovering municipal affairs and sports segments, are anticipated to boost the LED lighting industry. The demand for LED replacements in existing markets requiring renovations, as well as that for high-quality, healthy, comfortable, and smart lighting products, are expected to rise. That being said, as the global supply chain shifts away from China and global production capacity continues to expand, competition is likely to intensify. In addition, more regions are expected to include LED lighting within their protective tariff schemes in 2025-particularly with intensified US tariff policies-which could suppress market demand. Overall, TrendForce estimates the global LED lighting market size to positively return to USD 56.626 billion in 2025.
From the product perspective, TrendForce maintains that increased investments in infrastructure, municipal affairs, sports, and entertainment projects, along with a rising number of electric vehicle charging stations, will create opportunities to reconfigure the outdoor lighting sector. Therefore, outdoor lighting products-including LED street lights, LED floodlights, and LED parking lot lights-are forecast to witness an upward growth trend.
In the mid-to-long term, beyond 2026, the residential and non-residential construction markets-including segments such as healthcare, advanced manufacturing, and infrastructure-are expected to drive significant growth in the LED lighting industry. This growth will be fueled by sustainable development initiatives like decarbonization, increasing consumer demand for healthy and comfortable lighting environments, and the upgrade of LED products to smart control systems. However, caution is advised as emerging protective tariffs worldwide could suppress demand. Consequently, TrendForce remains cautiously optimistic about the future, forecasting the market size to reach USD 63.903 billion by 2029, with a CAGR of 2.7% from 2024 to 2029.
In 2024, driven by the demand for energy savings, LED lighting products have increasingly incorporated dimming, color tuning, and smart control systems. According to the latest data from TrendForce, the global smart lighting market size grew by 17.6% in 2024.
Broken down by application, the growth was primarily driven by lower costs of smart lighting products and steadily increasing energy-saving demand in the professional lighting market (including commercial, outdoor, and industrial segments) which spurred growth in IoT lighting, particularly in the outdoor and industrial sectors. In 2025, improved consumer demand is expected to stimulate a rebound in smart household lighting, covering products such as bulbs, filament lamps, and ceiling lights. Additionally, spotlights, downlights, and LED strips are gradually penetrating the smart household lighting market, experiencing rapid growth.
According to the latest data from TrendForce, the global LED horticultural lighting market size reached USD 1.315 billion in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.6%. TrendForce's analysis indicates that this recovery is not simply due to downstream restocking; rather, it represents a genuine and sustainable resurgence in demand.
Forecasting for 2025, a new round of cannabis lighting replacements is expected. During the peak period of cannabis applications in 2020-2021, the lighting solutions used featured lower lifespans, luminous efficacy, and light intensity. The anticipated transition to products with higher photosynthetic photon flux (PPF) and photosynthetic photon efficacy (PPE), as well as dimmable multi-channel models, is expected to stimulate further demand. Additionally, ongoing LED penetration to replace traditional high-energy-consuming products, combined with renewed heavy investments in vertical farming across Asia, the Middle East, North America, and Europe-where crop varieties are diversifying towards higher-value produce and research institutions are intensifying their involvement-will inevitably drive rapid growth in the LED horticultural lighting market.
According to TrendForce, the global lighting market demand remained weak in 2024, especially due to sluggish new installations. Aside from a few companies that have managed to grow revenue through unique operating strategies, most firms experienced varying degrees of decline due to weak revenue. European and the US brands, in particular, suffered from project suspensions or delays, which further deepened their revenue falls; meanwhile, Chinese OEMs faced fierce competition as both shipments and prices dropped. The top 20 lighting companies achieved a combined revenue of USD 24.134 billion in 2024-a 4.7% year-on-year decline that continues a downward trend. Nevertheless, the ranking of the top five remained unchanged, namely Signify, Acuity Brands, Panasonic, LEDVANCE/MLS Lighting, and Zumtobel, reflecting a stable industry structure.
TrendForce further analyzes that the lighting market is mature, highly fragmented, and extremely competitive, making economies of scale particularly important. Additionally, niche lighting segments with relatively high barriers-such as horticultural lighting, marine lighting, and healthcare lighting-are emerging as key areas for future competition and market penetration. For example, the North American leader Acuity Brands is actively entering the gas station lighting market, which it had not previously explored, in an effort to capture additional market share. This indicates that resources will increasingly concentrate on larger companies, leading to a "big gets bigger" trend. Furthermore, digital transformation continues to be a focus for companies, and the integration of LED lighting with smart control systems is expected to be widely adopted, thus unlocking new opportunities for second-round replacement demand growth.