電気自動車 (EV) の地域別予測 - 北米：米国・カナダの小型プラグインEVとEVSEの予測、州別・地域別・大都市圏別 (2023～2032年)

北米におけるプラグインEV (PEV) の販売台数は、2022年と2023年に大幅に増加しました。2023年の最初の3四半期には、PEVの販売台数は2022年の合計を上回り、米国では2023年の第3四半期に初めてPEVの販売台数が30万台を超えました。PEVは現在、北米の新車市場で重要な位置を占めており、業界がより高いレベルの電動化に移行するにつれて、今後も成長を続ける構えです。

2022年インフレ抑制法 (IRA) では、2023年からクリーン自動車クレジット制度が改正され、特にこのクレジットの適用を受けるために必要なバッテリーの現地生産と新しい原材料サプライチェーンがオンライン化されれば、PEV販売はさらに強化されると思われます。将来的に自動車メーカーは新型車、特にバッテリーEV (BEV) を優先すると考えられています。高金利やバッテリー原材料コストの変動に対する懸念から、自動車メーカーは生産目標を見直しましたが、販売台数が伸び続けていることから、2023年にはいくつかのPEVモデルが値下げされました。

当レポートでは、北米の電気自動車 (EV) 分野における技術革新の動きやインセンティブ・政策、車両供給力を分析し、米国とカナダにおけるPEVの普及状況を全国・州別・地域別に予測しています。また、主な市場変動要因 - バッテリーパックや技術革新、燃料価格、各モデル供給状況、ゼロエミッション車 (ZEV) 義務化など- について考察しています。さらに、車種別 (乗用車と小型トラック)・パワートレイン別 (プラグインハイブリッドEV (PHEV)・BEV) の詳細動向も含まれます。併せて、EVSE (EV用充電装置) の展開動向や、技術別 (レベル1 (L1)、レベル2 (L2)、DC急速充電など)・利用事例別 (フリート、市場、集合住宅 (MUD)、戸建住宅 (SUD)、SUD共有、職場など) の詳細動向なども予測しています。

目次

第1章 エグゼクティブサマリー

第2章 市場の問題

• イントロダクション
• 市場の促進・抑制要因と最新情勢
  • バッテリーパックの価格
  • 燃料価格
  • 自動車OEMのPEV投資
  • モデルの入手可能性
  • PEVの政策環境
  • EVSEの政策環境

第3章 業界のバリューチェーン

• 競合情勢
• バリューチェーンの図解
• ビジネスモデルの進化
  • 国内生産
  • サプライチェーンの統合

第4章 予測手法

• VAST (Vehicle Analytics and Simulation Tool) モデルの概要
  • 長期的な市場シェア：パワートレイン間の競合
  • インフラ・車両の展開促進
  • 自動車の販売台数の予測とモデルの調整
  • 地域別の特性
• VAST充電器設置モジュールの概要

第5章 市場予測

• イントロダクション
• 米国
  • PEVの予測
  • EVSEの予測
  • 州別の予測
  • 大都市圏上位10ヶ所
• カナダ

第6章 結論・提言

• 3つの大きなポイント
• 推奨事項
  • 自動車メーカー
  • 政府
  • EVSE企業・メーカー

第7章 頭字語と略語の一覧

第8章 目次

第9章 図表

第10章 調査範囲、情報源・調査手法、注記

List of Tables

• LDV Sales by State or Province, North America: 2023-2032
• Annual LDV Population by State, North America: 2023-2032
• LD PEV Sales by Powertrain, US: 2023-2032
• LD PEV Sales by Powertrain, Canada: 2023-2032
• LD PEV Sales by State or Province, North America: 2023-2032
• LD BEV Sales by State or Province, North America: 2023-2032
• LD PHEV Sales by State or Province, North America: 2023-2032
• LD PEV Sales by Class, US: 2023-2032
• LD PEV Sales by Class, Canada: 2023-2032
• LD PEV Sales by Owner, US: 2023-2032
• LD PEV Sales by Owner, Canada: 2023-2032
• Top 50 Metropolitan Areas in 2032 by LD PEV Sales, US: 2023-2032
• Top 10 Metropolitan Areas in 2032 by LD PEV Sales, Canada: 2023-2032
• LD PEV Population by Powertrain, US: 2023-2032
• LD PEV Population by Powertrain, Canada: 2023-2032
• LD PEV Population by State or Province, North America: 2023-2032
• LD BEV Population by State or Province, North America: 2023-2032
• LD PHEV Population by State or Province, North America: 2023-2032
• LD PEV Population by Class, US: 2023-2032
• LD PEV Population by Class, Canada: 2023-2032
• LD PEV Population by Owner, US: 2023-2032
• LD PEV Population by Owner, Canada: 2023-2032
• Top 50 Metropolitan Areas in 2032 by LD PEV Population, US: 2023-2032
• Top 10 Metropolitan Areas in 2032 by LD PEV Population, Canada: 2023-2032
• Charge Points by State or Province, North America: 2023-2032
• Charge Points by Technology, US: 2023-2032
• Charge Points by Technology, Canada: 2023-2032
• Charge Points by Owner, US: 2023-2032
• Charge Points by Owner, Canada: 2023-2032
• Charge Points by Use Case, US: 2023-2032
• Charge Points by Use Case, Canada: 2023-2032
• Public Charge Points by State or Province, North America: 2023-2032
• Public L2 Charge Points by State or Province, North America: 2023-2032
• Public DC Charge Points by State or Province, North America: 2023-2032
• Private Non-Fleet Charge Points by State or Province, North America: 2023-2032
• Private Non-Fleet L1 Charge Points by State or Province, North America: 2023-2032
• Private Non-Fleet L2 Charge Points by State or Province, North America: 2023-2032
• Private Fleet Charge Points by State or Province, North America: 2023-2032
• Private Fleet L2 Charge Points by State or Province, North America: 2023-2032
• Private Fleet DC Charge Points by State or Province, North America: 2023-2032
• Top 50 Metropolitan Areas in 2032 by Charge Points, US: 2023-2032
• Top 10 Metropolitan Areas in 2032 by Charge Points, Canada: 2023-2032

EV Geographic Forecast Drivers and Assumptions, North America

Geographic Forecast Area Labels and Definitions

Sample of Recent and Upcoming BEVs with a Base MSRP under $50,000

List of Figures

• LD PEV Sales by Powertrain and PEV Market Share, North America: 2023-2032
• LD PEV Population and Share of LDV Population, US: 2023-2032
• LD PEV Sales by Powertrain, US: 2023-2032
• LD PEV Sales by Class, US: 2023-2032
• Charge Points Installed by Technology, US: 2023-2032
• Charge Points Installed by Use Case, US: 2023-2032

Top 10 States by LD PEV Sales, US: 2032

Top 10 States by Charge Points Installed, US: 2032

Top 10 Metropolitan Areas by LD PEV Sales, US: 2032

Top 10 Metropolitan Areas by Charge Points Installed, US: 2032

• LD PEV Population and Share of LDV Population, Canada: 2023-2032
• LD PEV Sales by Powertrain, Canada: 2023-2032
• LD PEV Sales by Class, Canada: 2023-2032
• Charge Points Installed by Technology, Canada: 2023-2032
• Charge Points Installed by Use Case, Canada: 2023-2032

Top 5 Provinces by LD PEV Sales, Canada: 2032

Top 5 Provinces by Charge Points Installed, Canada: 2032

Top 10 Metropolitan Areas by LD PEV Sales, Canada: 2032

Top 10 Metropolitan Areas by Charge Points Installed, Canada: 2032

Pictorial Representation of the PEV Industry Value Chain

VAST Systems Dynamics Innovation Diffusion Approach

Example of LDV Charging Port Allocation

Sales of plug-in EVs (PEVs) in North America have seen significant increases in 2022 and 2023. In the first three quarters of 2023, PEV sales exceeded the 2022 total and in the US, the third quarter of 2023 saw more than 300,000 PEVs sold for the first time in a quarter. PEVs are now a significant piece of the North American new vehicle market and poised to continue growing as the industry transitions to greater levels of electrification.

The Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 revised the clean vehicle credit program starting in 2023, and will further strengthen PEV sales, especially as local battery production and new raw material supply chains, which are required to qualify for these credits, come online. Guidehouse Insights expects automakers to prioritize new models, and specifically battery EVs (BEVs). Despite automakers revising their production targets because of concerns about high interest rates and the volatility of battery raw material costs, several PEV models saw price cuts in 2023 as sales continued growing.

This Guidehouse Insights report analyzes EV technology innovations, incentives, policies, and vehicle availability to forecast PEV adoption in the US and Canada on national, state/province, and sub-state/province levels. The forecasts are driven by battery pack and technology innovations, fuel prices, model availability, and zero emissions vehicle (ZEV) mandates. They include passenger car and light truck breakouts in addition to powertrain breakouts by plug-in hybrid EVs (PHEVs) and BEVs. Forecasts for deployment of EV Supply Equipment (EVSE) is also included. EVSE deployments are segmented by technology-Level 1 (L1), Level 2 (L2), and DC fast chargers-and use cases, including fleet, market, multiuse dwellings (MUD), single-use dwelling (SUD), SUD-shared, and workplace.

Table of Contents

. Executive Summary

• 1.1 Introduction
• 1.2 Market Forecast

2. Market Issues

• 2.1 Introduction
• 2.2 Market Drivers, Barriers, and Updates
  • 2.2.1 Battery Pack Prices
  • 2.2.2 Fuel Prices
  • 2.2.3 Automotive OEM PEV Investment
  • 2.2.4 Model Availability
  • 2.2.5 PEV Policy Environment
  • 2.2.6 EVSE Policy Environment

3. Industry Value Chain

• 3.1 Competitive Landscape
• 3.2 Pictorial Representation of the Value Chain
• 3.3 Business Model Evolution
  • 3.3.1 Onshoring Production
  • 3.3.2 Supply Chain Consolidation

4. Forecast Methodolgy

• 4.1 Vehicle Analytics and Simulation Tool Model Overview
  • 4.1.1 Long-Run Market Share: Competition between Powertrains
  • 4.1.2 Fueling Infrastructure and Vehicle Adoption
  • 4.1.3 Vehicle Sales Forecast and Model Calibration
  • 4.1.4 Geographic Specificity
• 4.2 The VAST Charger Siting Module Overview

5. Market Forecasts

• 5.1 Introduction
• 5.2 US
  • 5.2.1 PEV Forecasts
  • 5.2.2 EVSE Forecasts
  • 5.2.3 State Forecasts
  • 5.2.4 Top 10 Metropolitan Areas
• 5.3 Canada
  • 5.3.1 PEV Forecasts
  • 5.3.2 EVSE Forecasts
  • 5.3.3 Provincial Forecasts
  • 5.3.4 Top 10 Metropolitan Areas

6. Conclusions and Recommendations

• 6.1 Three Big Takeaways
• 6.2 Recommendations
  • 6.2.1 Automakers
  • 6.2.2 Governments
  • 6.2.3 EVSE Companies and Manufacturers

7. Acronym and Abbreviation List

8. Table of Contents

9. Table of Charts and Figures

10. Scope of Study, Sources and Methodology, Notes