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市場調査レポート
商品コード
1561696
LNGの世界市場の評価:インフラ別、最終用途別、地域別、機会、予測(2017年~2031年)LNG Market Assessment, By Infrastructure [LNG Liquefaction Plants, LNG Regasification Facilities, LNG Shipping], By End-use [Power Generation, Industrial, Residential and Commercial], By Region, Opportunities and Forecast, 2017-2031F |
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LNGの世界市場の評価:インフラ別、最終用途別、地域別、機会、予測(2017年~2031年) |
出版日: 2024年09月27日
発行: Market Xcel - Markets and Data
ページ情報: 英文 219 Pages
納期: 3~5営業日
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世界のLNGの市場規模は、2023年の1,462億米ドルから2031年に2,166億6,000万米ドルに達すると予測され、2024年~2031年の予測期間にCAGRで5.04%の成長が見込まれます。エネルギー安全保障とプロジェクトを強化するため、世界中の政府は液化天然ガス(LNG)の供給に注力しています。LNG供給の場合、北米、特に米国は世界最大のLNG輸出国として知られています。同国は、国外でのLNG需要の増加に対応することに加え、国内のエネルギー価格と環境問題に対処しようとしています。発電における石炭からの脱却と、特にロシアのウクライナ侵攻後の地政学的不安に伴う信頼できるエネルギー供給の必要性が、LNG輸出の成長の主な促進要因となっています。
例えば、EIAは2024年5月、Golden Pass LNG、Corpus Christi Stage 3、Plaquemines LNG Phase Iの3つの主要LNGプロジェクトの開始により、米国の天然ガス商業が拡大すると発表しました。最大の輸出国である米国は、欧州とアジア太平洋を中心に世界中でLNGの需要を高めている成長によって強化されています。
LNG出荷の増加が市場の成長を大きく促進
LNG輸送は世界のエネルギーシステムにとって不可欠です。LNG輸送は、パイプラインインフラのない市場でも天然ガスを利用できるよう、安全性と効果的な長距離輸送を維持しています。その他の化石燃料に比べ、LNG輸送はエネルギー源の多様化を助け、エネルギー安全保障を向上させ、よりクリーンなエネルギー消費を促します。戦争が勃発する中、アジア太平洋ではロシアのLNG輸出が急増しています。世界のエネルギー需要の増加に対応するため、LNG輸出はさらに増加すると予測されています。
例えば、ロシアのYamal LNGプラントからのLNGとガスコンデンセートの貨物100個近くが、2024年6月に欧州連合(EU)に到着しました。そのほとんどがベルギー、フランス、スペイン向けでした。この量は、前年に欧州に送られたロシア産LNG180億バレルのうち160億バレル超に相当します。
LNG液化プラントの設立が世界のLNG市場を加速する
世界のエネルギー供給と脱炭素化構想におけるLNGの役割は、ますます大きくなっています。LNG液化プラントは、天然ガスをコンパクトな液体状態に変換し、パイプラインが通っていない市場への長距離船舶輸送を可能にするために不可欠です。天然ガスの量を約600分の1に減らすことで、この技術は貯蔵と輸送の経済性と効率を向上させます。その他の化石燃料と比較した場合、LNGはCO2、NOx、SO2、粒子状物質の発生が少なく、もっともクリーンな化石燃料です。天然ガスの可用性を高め、GHG排出を削減し、低炭素エネルギーへの転換を支援するためには、より多くのLNG液化プラントを世界中に建設する必要があります。
例えば、Scandinavian Biogasは2024年7月、スウェーデンのモンステラスに7,500万米ドルのバイオLNG施設を建設する意向を発表しました。この施設では、30万トンの地域の糞尿と緑肥が、毎年約120GWhのバイオLNGに変換されます。さらに、フィンランドのWartsila Corporationは、2隻の新型LNG船にエンジンと燃料ガスシステムを供給する契約を獲得し、この地域の環境にやさしいエネルギーソリューションへの取り組みを実証しています。
LNG生産能力の急増が市場成長を加速させる
2024年~2028年に推定1億9,300万トン(MMT)の新規生産能力の増強が見込まれており、市場は大きく成長する見込みです。この拡張は、価格を安定させ、世界全体のエネルギー安全保障を強化することを目的としています。さらに、この例外的な増加は市場の供給過剰を招き、コストを劇的に低下させると予測され、2030年までに約6.9米ドル/MMBtuまで低下すると予測されています。
当レポートでは、世界のLNG市場について調査分析し、市場規模と予測、市場力学、主要企業の情勢と見通しなどを提供しています。
Global LNG market is projected to witness a CAGR of 5.04% during the forecast period 2024-2031, growing from USD 146.20 billion in 2023 to USD 216.66 billion in 2031. To strengthen energy security and projects, geopolitical governments across the world are concentrating on the supply of liquid natural gas (LNG). In the case of LNG supply, North America, especially the United States, is signified as the largest LNG exporter in the world. The country seeks to address domestic energy pricing and environmental issues in addition to meeting the growing demand for LNG abroad. The move away from coal in power generation and the need for dependable energy supplies in the wake of geopolitical unrest, especially after Russia's invasion of Ukraine, are the main drivers of the development of LNG exports.
For instance, in May 2024, EIA announced that the United States natural gas commerce is expected to increase with the opening of three major LNG projects, Golden Pass LNG, Corpus Christi Stage 3, and Plaquemines LNG Phase I. The projects are anticipated to start operations by late 2024 and increase output by 2025, boosting the LNG exports, which are anticipated to escalate by 6% in 2024 and 20% in 2025. The United States, as the largest exporter, is strengthened by the growth that is raising the demand for LNG around the world, especially in Europe and Asia-Pacific.
The Rise in LNG Shipments is Propelling Market Growth Extensively
LNG shipments are essential to the world's energy system. They make natural gas available to markets without pipeline infrastructure by maintaining safety and effective long-distance delivery. Compared to other fossil fuels, LNG shipments aid in energy source diversification, improve energy security, and encourage cleaner energy consumption. Amidst the war, a steep rise in Russian LNG exports has been witnessed in the Asia-Pacific. LNG exports are anticipated to increase further to keep up with the global rise in energy demand.
For instance, nearly 100 LNG and gas condensate cargos from the Yamal LNG plant in Russia reached the European Union in June 2024. The shipments were mostly sent to Belgium, France, and Spain. The amounts made up more than 16 billion barrels out of the 18 billion barrels of Russian LNG that were sent to Europe in the previous year.
The Establishment of LNG Liquefaction Plants is Expediting the Global LNG Market
The role of LNG in the global energy supply and decarbonization initiatives is growing. LNG liquefaction plants are essential to convert natural gas to a compact liquid state and enable long-distance ship transportation to markets not served by pipelines. By reducing the amount of natural gas by almost 600 times, the technique improves the economy and efficiency of storage and transportation. When compared to other fossil fuels, LNG produces less CO2, NOx, SO2, and particulate matter, making LNG the cleanest fossil fuel. More LNG liquefaction plants must be built globally to boost the availability of natural gas, reduce GHG emissions, and aid in the shift to low-carbon energy.
For instance, in July 2024, Scandinavian Biogas announced intentions to construct a USD 75 million bio-LNG facility in Monsteras, Sweden, which will start in late 2024. The plant will transform 300,000 tons of local manure and green matter into around 120 GWh of bio-LNG each year, equivalent to 12 million liters of diesel, principally for heavy transport and shipping. Furthermore, Finland's Wartsila Corporation won contracts to supply engines and fuel gas systems for two new LNG-powered boats, demonstrating the region's commitment to environmentally friendly energy solutions.
A Steep Surge in LNG Capacity is Expediting the Market Growth
The market is poised for significant growth, with an estimated 193 million metric tons (MMT) of new capacity addition expected between 2024 and 2028. The expansion aims to stabilize prices and enhance energy security across the globe. Moreover, the exceptional rise is anticipated to lead to market oversupply, drastically dropping costs, with projections indicating a decrease to approximately USD 6.9/MMBtu units by 2030.
For instance, as per the 2024 World LNG Report by the International Gas Union, the LNG market has achieved a new but fragile equilibrium, owing to a shortage of spare capacity in the forecast period. LNG receiving capacity increase has shaped market development over the last 24 months, reaching an astonishing 1,029.9 MTPA by the end of February 2024 from around 70 MTPA from 2023, marking the biggest year of new additions since 2010.
Government Initiatives Acting as a Catalyst
Government measures are crucial in marketing LNG as a transportation fuel. The activities include changing rules to accommodate LNG in commercial transportation, constructing a network of LNG filling stations, and developing policies to encourage the use of LNG. Strategic investments in infrastructure and public-private partnerships are essential for overcoming early market hurdles and guaranteeing widespread LNG adoption.
For instance, in March 2024, the Union Minister for Petroleum and Natural Gas inaugurated India's first small-scale liquefied natural gas (SSLNG) plant at GAIL's Vijaypur plant in Madhya Pradesh. The effort is a part of the government's policy to increase the use of natural gas in the energy mix. Moreover, the government announced the SSLNG unit to improve the liquefaction and transportation of natural gas, increase environmentally friendly energy, and reduce reliance on conventional hydrocarbons such as coal and oil.
Asia-Pacific to Lead the Global Market Share
Asia-Pacific, especially China, Japan, and India, dominates the global LNG market due to high demand growth, significant investments in regasification infrastructure, and a drive toward cleaner energy. China reclaimed its position as the leading LNG importer in 2023, while India and Japan intend to raise natural gas's part of the energy mix by 2030. Southeast Asian countries are developing as significant participants, with new regasification projects ongoing, cementing Asia-Pacific's status as the uncontested global LNG market leader.
For instance, in July 2024, the Japanese government announced that it is aggressively establishing Asian gas markets to boost LNG trade and energy security in the face of diminishing domestic demand. As Japan's LNG imports fall to a decade-low, owing to a recovery in nuclear energy and renewable sources, Japanese corporations are investing in the regional markets to sell excess LNG. Projects in Vietnam, the Philippines, and Indonesia aim to build a strong Asian gas market, assuring Japan's continued prominence in the global LNG market while addressing energy flexibility as well as supply issues.
Future Market Scenario (2024 - 2031F)
A large number of new LNG projects that are under construction will cause a fundamental shift in the market from 2026, which is likely to change the overall market scenario.
Emerging economies are anticipated to augment LNG demand as they are likely to benefit from lower LNG prices compared to traditional fuels, which in turn is expected to cater to ample opportunities for market growth in the upcoming future.
IEEFA predicts that around 17 MTPA of liquefaction projects will come online around the world in 2025, more than in 2023 and 2024 combined. New capacity increases will peak in 2026, with an anticipated 64 MTPA of capacity coming online in a single year, and continue through 2027, when 37 MTPA of new capacity is expected to go online.
Key Players Landscape and Outlook
The market players are continuously striving for the growth of the LNG sector as it is a highly competitive market. Moreover, there is an intense desire for market players to gain a competitive edge in the industry. Furthermore, they are investing a hefty amount in setting up LNG plants via different collaborative techniques.
In August 2024, QatarEnergy announced that it is in negotiations with Kuwait Petroleum Corporation (KPC) over a new 15-year LNG supply deal that will increase Qatar furnish Kuwait with 3 MTPA of LNG via its North Field project, beginning in 2026. The agreement intends to fulfill Kuwait's rising power in generating demands as the government increasingly relies on imported gas to meet its energy requirements.
All segments will be provided for all regions and countries covered
Companies mentioned above DO NOT hold any order as per market share and can be changed as per information available during research work.