スクールバス市場：成長、動向、予測（2022年～2027年）

世界のスクールバス市場は、予測期間中に2.4％のCAGRで成長すると予想されます。商用車における電気自動車の採用率の高まりは、予測期間中のスクールバス市場の成長を牽引すると予想されます。また、スクールバスは他の交通手段に比べ高い衝突耐性、転倒耐性、窓が大きく視認性が高いなどの利点を備え、NHTSAによると、スクールバスは一般車よりも70％安全だとされることなどが、市場の成長を後押ししています。ICエンジンのバスのシェアは更に拡大するものの、電気スクールバスは最も急成長しているセグメントであると予想され、主要市場の1つである中国では国全体で電気バスへの移行が見られているため、スクールバス市場にも影響を与える可能性があります。また、2018年には世界の就学率は89.41％へと増加し、インターナショナルスクールも年7％近くのペースで成長しているため、 市場の成長はさらに後押しされることが予想されています。なお、アメリカではスクールバス市場は自治体の支出レベルに影響され、支出レベルは固定資産税の徴収額や地方自治体予算、住宅価格等により左右されるため、これらのいずれかの要因が悪化することは、市場の停滞やマイナス成長につながる可能性があります。

当レポートでは、スクールバス市場を調査し、市場概要、市場の成長要因および阻害要因の分析、パワートレイン別・キャパシティデザイン別・地域別の市場規模の推移と予測、競合情勢、主要企業のプロファイル、市場機会など、包括的な情報を提供しています。

目次

第1章 イントロダクション

第2章 調査手法

第3章 エグゼクティブサマリー

第4章 市場力学

• 市場の成長要因
• 市場の阻害要因
• ポーターのファイブフォース分析

第5章 市場細分化

• パワートレイン別
  • ICエンジン
  • 電気自動車
  • ハイブリッド車
• キャパシティデザイン別
  • タイプA
  • タイプB
  • タイプC
  • タイプD
• 地域別
  • 北米
  • 欧州
  • アジア太平洋地域
  • その他の地域

第6章 競合情勢

• ベンダーの市場シェア
• 企業プロファイル
  • Thomas Built Buses Inc.
  • Collins Bus Corporation
  • IC Bus (Navistar International Corporation)
  • Blue Bird Corporation
  • Lion Electric Company
  • Yutong Buses Co. Ltd.
  • King Long United Automotive Industry Co. Ltd.
  • Anhui Ankai Automobile
  • Tata Motors
  • JCBL Limited

第7章 市場機会および将来動向

The school bus market was valued at USD 3.71 billion in 2020, and it is expected to reach a value of USD 5.44 billion by 2026, registering a CAGR of around 6.59% during the forecast period.

In the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, the global bus market is expected to witness nominal growth due to continuous lockdown and travel restrictions across the world. Many schools were still closed in some parts of the region to maintain the safety of children, as there is a high risk of contact of the virus to children. However, due to the availability of the COVID-19 vaccine and educational expert's assertion of missing practical knowledge for children, schools were permitted to reopen for higher class students first maintaining social distance norms and guidelines.

The advantage of school buses over the other modes of transport for students is also one reason for augmenting the market's growth during the forecast period. School buses are generally built with high safety standards, protective seating, rollover protection, etc. The increasing global population, especially in countries such as China and India, has led to a rise in the number of children enrolling in schools. This resulted in the increased demand for a large number of schools and adequate infrastructure for the education industry, which includes transportation and other amenities.

The increasing adoption of electric vehicles in the commercial vehicle segment has influenced the school bus segment, which is expected to drive the North American school bus market during the forecast period. China is another major market as the country is witnessing a transition towards electric buses, which could influence the school bus fleet as well. The Middle East is expected to be one of the new emerging markets, as various companies have been importing high volumes of school buses, mainly from Asian countries.

Key Market Trends

Growing Interest Toward Electric Vehicles

Reducing the emissions has increased the demand for alternative fuel-powered vehicles for public transport and increased the adoption of electric vehicles in the commercial segment to influence the school bus market during the forecast period.

More than 95% of the school buses worldwide run on fossil fuels, especially diesel. Numerous studies worldwide have shown that inhaling diesel exhaust causes respiratory diseases, which are seen widely in children who are the main commuters. Replacing all the school buses of only America itself with electric buses could avoid an average of 5.3 million tons of greenhouse gas emissions each year.

Electric buses give out zero emissions, and their annual operating cost is almost half of a diesel bus. In Shenzhen, China, it is expected that the incentives for electric transit buses would also be extended towards school buses, thus increasing their adoption. Few states in the United States, such as California, New York, etc., and Quebec in Canada, are also testing and adopting electric buses, which is expected to drive the market. The district of California has been at the forefront in the adoption of electric school buses. For instance,

• Recently, California is planning to replace 200 polluting school buses with electric ones and is in plans to offer funding of nearly US$ 70 million for the same.
• In 2019, two Michigan school districts, Ann Arbor and Roseville public schools, ordered six Thomas Built Buses Saf-T-Liner C2 Jouley electric school buses.

North America to Lead the Market

The North American school bus market is anticipated to register a CAGR of over 4% during the forecast period (2021 - 2026). In the major North American countries, school transport is very organized and has been in existence for many decades. Hence, the demand has been stable for the past few years and is expected to be similar over the forecast period.

The market for school buses in North America is a consolidated one. The region is characterized by the presence of major school bus manufacturers who also cater to other countries. Blue Bird Corporation, IC Bus, and Thomas Built Buses Inc. are the three main players who are expected to occupy a major share of the market. Other major companies are Collins Bus Corporation, Micro Bird, and Lion Electric company. Moreover, companies are introducing new features in their products to increase their market share.

Canadian school buses are more or less similar to their US counterparts both in terms of design and usage by school systems. Buses are sometimes marketed to customers in Canada differently than in the United States. For instance, the Blue Bird All American was rebadged as the Blue Bird TX3 in Canada. Micro Bird and Lion Electric Company are the major school bus manufacturers from Canada.

In Mexico, along with the yellow school buses, various other types of buses are used for student transport. Depending on capacity needs, vans and minibusses are also used. Mexico mainly imports used and old school buses from the United States, but some newer ones are also imported and used school services. The school bus market is still in the nascent stage in Mexico, with very few manufacturers having a production plant in the country.

Competitive Landscape

The school bus market is neither a fragmented nor consolidated one. The market is characterized by the presence of major school bus manufacturers who also cater to other countries. The market is mainly dominated by players based in the United States, China, and India. IC engines are expected to have a larger share, whereas electric buses are expected to be the fastest-growing segment. For instance,

• The Virginia Department of General Services contracted Proterra Inc. for supplying electric buses and installing charging stations in the state. This move allows the state institutions, transit agencies, and universities to buy Proterra's electric buses and charging stations via the existing contract between the state and the company.
• Thomas Built Buses received full California Air Resources Board (CARB) and Hybrid and Zero-Emission Truck and Bus Voucher Incentive Project (HVIP) certificates for its Type C electric bus, the Saf-T-Liner C2 Jouley, which is powered by Proterra electric vehicle technology.
• Recently, in 2019, California was planning to replace 200 polluting school buses with electric ones, and it was in plans to offer funding of nearly USD 70 million for the same.

Additional Benefits:

• The market estimate (ME) sheet in Excel format
• 3 months of analyst support

TABLE OF CONTENTS

1 INTRODUCTION

• 1.1 Study Assumptions
• 1.2 Scope of the Study

2 RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

3 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

4 MARKET DYNAMICS

• 4.1 Market Drivers
• 4.2 Market Restraints
• 4.3 Industry Attractiveness - Porter's Five Forces Analysis
  • 4.3.1 Threat of New Entrants
  • 4.3.2 Bargaining Power of Buyers/Consumers
  • 4.3.3 Bargaining Power of Suppliers
  • 4.3.4 Threat of Substitute Products
  • 4.3.5 Intensity of Competitive Rivalry

5 MARKET SEGMENTATION

• 5.1 By Power-train Type
  • 5.1.1 Electric
  • 5.1.2 Hybrid
• 5.2 By Capacity Design Type
  • 5.2.1 Type A
  • 5.2.2 Type B
  • 5.2.3 Type C
  • 5.2.4 Type D
• 5.3 By Geography
  • 5.3.1 North America
    • 5.3.1.1 United States
    • 5.3.1.2 Canada
    • 5.3.1.3 Mexico
    • 5.3.1.4 Rest of North America
  • 5.3.2 Europe
    • 5.3.2.1 Germany
    • 5.3.2.2 United Kingdom
    • 5.3.2.3 France
    • 5.3.2.4 Russia
    • 5.3.2.5 Spain
    • 5.3.2.6 Rest of Europe
  • 5.3.3 Asia-Pacific
    • 5.3.3.1 China
    • 5.3.3.2 India
    • 5.3.3.3 Japan
    • 5.3.3.4 South Korea
    • 5.3.3.5 Rest of Asia-Pacific
  • 5.3.4 Rest of the World
    • 5.3.4.1 South America
    • 5.3.4.2 Middle-East and Africa

6 COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

• 6.1 Vendor Market Share
• 6.2 Company Profiles*
  • 6.2.1 Thomas Built Buses Inc.
  • 6.2.2 Collins Bus Corporation
  • 6.2.3 IC Bus (Navistar International Corporation)
  • 6.2.4 Blue Bird Corporation
  • 6.2.5 Lion Electric Company
  • 6.2.6 Yutong Buses Co. Ltd
  • 6.2.7 Anhui Ankai Automobile
  • 6.2.8 JCBL Limited
  • 6.2.9 Tata Motors

7 MARKET OPPORTUNITIES AND FUTURE TRENDS