EVバッテリー・マテリアルの世界市場・中国市場：技術・動向・市場予測

Global and China EV Batteries and Materials: Technology, Trends, and Market Forecasts

出版日: 2021年06月01日 | 発行:

Information Network | ページ情報: 英文 | 納期: 2-3営業日

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当レポートでは、世界および中国における電気自動車 (EV) バッテリー・マテリアル市場について調査し、各バッテリー・マテリアルタイプ別の予測、各部門 (カソード、アノード、セパレーター、電解質) におけるサプライヤーの市場シェアなどを分析しています。

第1章イントロダクション

第2章世界のEVおよびEVバッテリー市場の展望

EV市場
EVバッテリー

第3章中国のEVおよびEVバッテリー市場の展望

EV市場
EVバッテリー

第4章カソードマテリアルの分析

イントロダクション
リチウム
コバルト
ニッケル/マンガン

第5章世界のアノード、電解質、およびセパレーターマテリアルの分析

概要
世界のアノード市場
世界のセパレーター (メンブレン) 市場
世界の電解質市場

第6章中国のアノード、電解質、およびセパレーターマテリアルの分析

概要
中国のアノード市場
中国のセパレーター (メンブレン) 市場
中国の電解質市場

第7章サプライヤーのプロファイル・戦略

第8章　バッテリー企業のプロファイル・戦略

図表

List of Tables

2.1. Global EV Market Forecast
2.2. Global EV Battery Makers
2.3. Summary Table of Lithium-Based Batteries
2.4. EV Battery Breakdown by Company and EV Model
2.5. Shipment Forecast of EV Battery by Region
2.6. Outlook for EV/PHEV Sales
2.7. Summary Table of Future Batteries
3.1. Best Selling Chinese Electric Vehicles
3.2. China Battery Demand By Type
3.3. China Personal Vehicle EV Battery Output By Type
3.4. China EV Battery Output By Vehicle Type
3.5. China Personal Vehicle EV Battery Shipments By Shape
3.6. China Personal Vehicle EV Battery Shipments By Density
3.7. China Personal Vehicle EV Battery Shipments By Customer
4.1. Major Lithium Metal Oxides Used In Cathodes
4.2. Cathode Material Characteristics
4.3. Lithium Cobalt Oxide (LCO) Properties
4.4. Lithium Nickel Manganese Cobalt Oxide Properties
4.5. Lithium Manganese Oxide Properties
4.6. Lithium Nickel Cobalt Aluminum Oxide Properties
4.7. Lithium Production and Reserves by Country
4.8. Amount Of Cobalt Per Battery For Different Devices
4.9. Cobalt Mine Production by Country
5.1. Material Revenue Forecast
5.2. Properties and Suppliers of Anode Materials
5.3. Characteristics and Suppliers of Separators
6.1. Material Revenue Forecast

List of Figures

2.1. EV Battery Market Forecast by Vehicle Type
2.2. EV Battery Market Forecast (MWh)
2.3. Battery Market by Application 2000
2.4. Battery Market by Application 2015 And 2025
2.5. EV Battery Density by Type
2.6. EV Battery Market Share by Manufacturer
2.7. EV Battery Shipments 2017 and 2018
2.8. EV Battery Manufacturer Capacity by Region
2.9. China EV Battery Shares
2.10. China EV Battery Shares - NCM
2.11. China's EV Battery Output by Type
2.12. Comparison Between a Conventional and All-Solid-State LIB
2.13. Comparison Between a Conventional and Metal Polysulfide LIB
3.1. China EV Battery Demand
3.2. China EV Battery Manufacturers
3.3. China NEV Battery Shares (Personal/Commercial)
3.4. China Personal EV Battery Shares
3.5. China Personal Vehicle EV Battery Output By Type
3.6. China EV Battery Shares - LFP
3.7. China EV Battery Shares - NCM
3.8. China Personal Vehicle EV Battery Output By Shape
3.9. China Personal Vehicle EV Battery Output By Density
3.10. China Personal Vehicle EV Battery Output By Type
4.1. Li Battery Materials Cost Breakdown
4.2. Cathode Materials Market Share by Type
4.3. LCO Market Share by Material Supplier
4.4. NCM Market Share by Material Supplier
4.5. LMO Market Share by Material Supplier
4.6. LFP Market Share by Material Supplier
4.7. NCA Market Share by Material Supplier
4.8. Lithium Prices 2009-2018
4.9. Lithium Supply by Country - 2017
4.10. Lithium Supply by Country - 2025
4.11. Lithium Supply by Country - 2014-2025
4.12. Cobalt 1-Year Price Graph
4.13. Cobalt 5-Year Price Graph
4.14. Cobalt Supply/Demand
4.15. Cobalt Demand by Application
4.16. Cobalt Components by Battery Type
4.17. Nickel 5-Year Price Graph
4.18. Manganese 5-Year Price Graph
5.1. Anode Materials Market Share by Type
5.2. Market Shares of Anode Materials Suppliers
5.3. Market Shares of Separator Materials Suppliers
5.4. Wet Vs Dry Separator Forecast for EV Batteries
5.5. Global Demand for Separators for Automotive
5.6. Market Shares of Electrolyte Materials Suppliers
6.1. China Anode Materials Market Share by Type
6.2. China Market Shares Of Artificial Graphite Suppliers
6.2. China Market Shares Of Natural Graphite Suppliers
6.4. China Market Shares Of Wet Separator Materials Suppliers
6.5. China Market Shares Of Dry Separator Materials Suppliers
6.6. China Separator Shipment Breakdown By Type
6.7. China Market Shares Of Electrolyte Materials Suppliers

Although global economic uncertainties mounted amid the COVID-19 outbreak, we expect structural EV demand growth to remain intact as the industry recovers in 2021. In the short term, demand for EVs will likely grow more rapidly than demand for conventional vehicles. Furthermore, major automakers, including Volkswagen, are unlikely to change their EV strategies.

In 2020-2021, we believe global EV demand will primarily come from Europe, where new EV model launches should expand despite uncertainties over the easing of environmental regulations. In the US, growth is likely to be driven by Tesla.

China should also exhibit robust demand, supported by the extension of subsidies. In particular, as Tesla gains a bigger foothold in the country, global and local automakers will likely take more aggressive action. Through this process, we believe China will transition from a subsidy-driven to a private demand-driven EV market.

In the short term, we think the gap in EV competitiveness among automakers will widen amid the economic slowdown. EV competitiveness comes mainly from the adoption of a dedicated platform, economies of scale, and improved management in batteries. As such, we believe capital power and investments will likely grow in importance.

In 2022-23, we expect battery prices to decline. For its Chinese models, Tesla plans to adopt cell-to-pack battery technology with lithium iron phosphate (LFP) cathodes. LFP batteries have lower energy density than nickel manganese cobalt (NCM) batteries, but are also 20% cheaper. Meanwhile, LG Chem plans to adopt nickel, cobalt, manganese, and aluminum (NCMA) cathodes (more than 80% nickel content) from 2022-23 and apply long cell technology to increase battery energy density by at least 20%. Samsung SDI is working on improving energy density more than 20% by applying lithium nickel cobalt aluminum oxide (NCA) cathodes to its prismatic batteries. Thanks to these efforts, battery cell costs are anticipated to fall from US$130/kWh currently to around US$100/kWh in 2022-23.

In addition to lower battery costs, overall EV production costs are also likely to fall sharply, aided by fixed cost savings from scale effects. Volkswagen is believed to have invested heavily in developing its EV platform, the modular electric drive matrix (MEB), but the development cost per unit is projected to decline significantly as production volume ramps up. Assuming platform development costs at W2tr, the cost per unit should fall sharply as Volkswagen's EV sales volume grows (from an estimated 400,000-500,000 units globally in 2020 to 1.5mn units in 2023 and 3mn units in 2025). Assembly line productivity is also likely to improve 30% through the EV platform, leading to significant fixed cost savings per unit. Thus, by 2023, we believe EVs could approach price parity with gas-powered vehicles, even without fuel cost savings effects.

With more automakers aiming to market cheaper, longer-range plug-in cars, demand for lithium-ion automotive batteries is expected rise. This report analyzes the markets for electric vehicles and EV batteries by type and geographic region. Other sectors analyzed are anode and cathode materials, and separators. Supply/demand of raw materials including lithium, cobalt, and nickel are detailed and forecast.

Chapter 1. Introduction

Chapter 2. Global EV and EV Battery Market Outlook

2.1. EV Market
2.2. EV Batteries
- 2.2.1. EV Battery Market Forecast
- 2.2.2. EV Battery Energy Density
- 2.2.3. EV Battery Cell Price
- 2.2.4. EV Battery Market Share
- 2.2.5. Rise of China
  - 2.2.5.1 Aggressive EV Battery Expansion
  - 2.2.5.2 Chinese Battery Technology
- 2.2.6. Future Batteries
  - 2.2.6.1 Lithium-air (Li-air)
  - 2.2.6.2 Lithium-metal (Li-metal)
  - 2.2.6.3 Solid-State Lithium
  - 2.2.6.4 Lithium-sulfur (Li-S)
  - 2.2.6.5 Sodium-ion (Na-ion)

Chapter 3. Chinese EV and EV Battery Market Outlook

3.1. China EV Market
3.2. China EV Batteries
- 3.2.1. China EV Battery Market Forecast
- 3.2.2. Rise of China
  - 3.2.2.1 Aggressive EV Battery Expansion
  - 3.2.2.2 Chinese Battery Technology
  - 3.2.2.3 EV Battery Overcapacity

Chapter 4. Cathode Material Analysis

4.1. Introduction
- 4.1.1. Cathode Material Costs
- 4.1.2. Cathode Materials And Battery Types
  - 4.1.2.1 LCO (Lithium Cobalt Oxide) Cathodes
  - 4.1.2.2 NCM (Nickel Cobalt Manganese) Cathodes
  - 4.1.2.3 LMO (Lithium Manganese Oxide) Cathodes
  - 4.1.2.4 LFP (Lithium Iron Phosphate) Cathodes
  - 4.1.2.5 NCA (Nickel Cobalt Aluminum) Cathodes
4.2. Lithium
- 4.2.1. Lithium Prices
- 4.2.2. Lithium Supply/Demand
- 4.2.3. Top Lithium-Producing Countries
- 4.2.4. Top Lithium-Producing Producers
4.3. Cobalt
- 4.3.1. Cobalt Prices
- 4.3.2. Cobalt Supply/Demand
- 4.3.3. Top Cobalt-Producing Countries
- 4.3.4. Top Cobalt-Producing Producers
4.4. Nickel/Manganese