道路・鉄道貨物輸送の脱炭素化

道路や鉄道による貨物輸送は、サプライチェーンを動かすために不可欠なものですが、その一方で大きな排出源となっています。IEAによると、輸送部門が2022年に世界のCO2排出の23%を占めました。ネットゼロ目標を達成するためには、電化、代替燃料、水素などのさまざまなエネルギー転換技術を展開する必要があります。当レポートでは、各技術の開発段階と、道路・鉄道貨物輸送への適合性について取り上げます。

2022年、輸送関連排出の74%を道路輸送が占め、大型貨物車は16%、鉄道はわずか1%でした。IEAの2050 NZEシナリオに合わせるためには、輸送部門は2030年までにCO2排出を年3%以上削減しなければなりません。この要件により、排出削減を達成するためには、両部門ともエネルギー転換技術を組み合わせて取り組む必要があります。

道路貨物輸送では、トラックの電化に重点が移りつつありますが、航続距離の制限や燃料補給時間の長さといった課題が、業界のステークホルダーにとって大きな懸念となっています。水素を燃料とするトラックもまた、長距離走行と迅速な燃料補給という利点を提供し、この部門の脱炭素化において重要な役割を果たすと予測されています。しかし、その高い製造コストと燃料補給インフラの不足が、依然として普及を妨げています。一方、代替燃料とハイブリッド混合燃料は、産業が水素の価格引き下げと大型車のバッテリーの性能向上を期待している間、実行可能な暫定的ソリューションとなります。

道路貨物輸送とは異なり、鉄道貨物輸送の脱炭素化は、鉄道がすでにクリーンな輸送手段であるという認識から、それほど緊急性をもって取り組まれてきませんでした。しかし、鉄道は陸上での長距離バルク輸送においてもっとも効率的なソリューションであるため、貨物輸送産業の脱炭素化には不可欠です。

最終的には、排出を削減し、ネットゼロ目標を達成するために道路部門と鉄道部門の協力が不可欠となります。鉄道は長距離輸送に対応し、トラックは住宅地や遠隔地におけるラストワンマイルの配送に注力します。

当レポートでは、世界の道路・鉄道貨物輸送部門について調査分析し、これらの部門を脱炭素化する可能性を秘めた、電化、代替燃料、水素などのエネルギー転換技術の適合性を評価しています。

主なハイライト

• 効率性の向上と最適化対策は、陸上貨物輸送の排出を削減するもっとも迅速で費用対効果の高い方法となります。
• 電化は、従来のICE（内燃機関）に代わるものとして、鉄道・道路貨物輸送に大きな脱炭素の可能性をもたらします。
• FAMEバイオディーゼル、HVO、合成燃料などの代替燃料の利用は、産業が水素などのより革新的な技術のさらなる開発を待つ間、排出削減の暫定的なソリューションを提供します。
• 水素燃料電池と水素燃焼エンジンは、炭化水素ベースの燃料を水素に置き換えることで、陸上貨物輸送産業に大きな脱炭素化の可能性を提供します。現在、この技術の普及は、電気代と新しいインフラの高いコストが障害となっています。
• 最終的には、道路と鉄道の連携が最大の成果をもたらします。今後、陸上輸送は複合輸送になる可能性が高いです。鉄道は長距離輸送に適しており、トラックは最初の1キロと最後の1キロをより柔軟にカバーできるからです。

目次

• エグゼクティブサマリー
• 道路・鉄道貨物輸送の炭素排出
• エネルギー転換技術のイントロダクション
• エネルギー転換技術の脱炭素化可能性の評価
• 道路・鉄道貨物輸送の脱炭素化に向けた主な課題
• 道路・鉄道貨物輸送のネットゼロ排出目標
• 道路・鉄道貨物輸送の電化
• 道路・鉄道貨物輸送における代替燃料：バイオディーゼルと合成燃料
• 道路・鉄道貨物輸送における水素
• 今後の方向性：部門の協力

List of Tables

• Decarbonization potential, development stage, suitability for rail, and suitability for road for electrification, alternative fuels, and hydrogen.
• Advantages and disadvantages for biofuels, synthetic fuels, BEV, FCEV, overhead charging.
• Long-term and interim targets for top 10 heavy-duty companies
• Long-term and interim targets for top 10 railway companies
• Railway companies' interim strategies
• Advantages and disadvantages for road and rail

List of Figures

• CO2 emissions by sector, 2019-2022
• CO2 emissions by transport sub-sector in 2022
• CO2 emissions from rail and NZE scenario, 2010-2030
• CO2 emissions from heavy freight truck and NZE scenario, 2010-2030
• Road freight CO2 emissions by heavy duty trucks by region, 2020
• HDV production forecast by fuel type, 2024-2035
• FAME biodiesel production capacity, 2021-2030
• Renewable diesel production capacity, 2021-2030
• Upcoming low-carbon hydrogen capacity allocated to synthetic fuels and project count, 2025-2030
• Global low-carbon hydrogen capacity, 2024-2030
• Hydrogen plants by end-use, 2024 YTD

Road and rail freight transport are essential to keep supply chains moving; however, they are significant sources of emissions. According to the IEA, in 2022, the transport sector accounted for 23% of global CO2 emissions in 2022. In order to meet net-zero targets, a range of energy transition technologies, including electrification, alternative fuels and hydrogen, will need be to be deployed. This report will tackle the development stage of each technology, as well as their suitability to road and rail freight.

In 2022, road transport accounted for 74% of all transport-related emissions, with heavy freight vehicles contributing 16% and rail only contributing 1% of all transport-related emissions. To align with the IEA's 2050 NZE scenario, the transport sector must reduce CO2 emissions by over 3% per year by 2030. Due to this requirement, both sectors will need to engage with a combination of energy transition technologies to achieve emissions reductions.

This report assesses the suitability of energy transition technologies such as electrification, alternative fuels, and hydrogen, which hold decarbonization potential for both sectors. This report also includes a snapshot of emissions targets and interim strategies from both sectors' biggest companies, as well as relevant governmental policies and initiatives.

In road freight, the emphasis is shifting toward the electrification of trucks, although challenges like limited range and lengthy refueling times are significant concerns for industry stakeholders. Hydrogen-fueled trucks are also expected to play a significant role in the sector's decarbonization, offering the benefits of longer journeys and faster refueling. However, their high production costs and a lack of refueling infrastructure continue to hinder widespread adoption. In the meantime, alternative fuels and hybrid blends present a viable interim solution while the industry anticipates price reductions for hydrogen and improved performance of batteries within heavy vehicles.

Unlike road freight, the decarbonization of rail freight has not been approached with the same urgency, largely due to the perception that rail is already a cleaner mode of transport. However, rail will be essential in decarbonizing the freight industry, as it represents the most efficient solution for long-haul bulk transport over land.

Ultimately, collaboration between the road and rail sectors will be crucial for reducing emissions and achieving net-zero targets. Intermodal transport will allow both sectors to leverage their strengths: trains will handle longer distances, while trucks will focus on last-mile deliveries in residential or remote areas.

Key Highlights

• Increasing efficiencies and optimization measures will represent the fastest and most cost-effective way to reduce emissions from land freight.
• Electrification will offer huge decarbonizing potential to both rail and road freight transportation as a substitute from traditional ICEs (internal combustion engines).
• The utilization of alternative fuels such as FAME biodiesel, HVO, and synthetic fuels will provide an interim solution for emission reductions whilst the industry awaits further development of more innovative technologies such as hydrogen.
• Hydrogen fuel cells and hydrogen combustion engines will offer great decarbonization potential for the land freight industry by replacing hydrocarbon-based fuels with the input of hydrogen. Widespread adoption of the technology is currently hindered by the high costs of both electricity and new infrastructure.
• Ultimately, collaboration between road and rail will yield the biggest results. Going forward, land freight is likely to be intermodal, i.e.: a combination of both modes of transport, as trains are better suited for long-haul, and trucks are able to cover the first and last kilometres with better flexibility.

Scope

• Global CO2 emissions from the road and rail freight industry, relevant policies for the decarbonization of the industry, analysis of strategies adopted by major players in the road and rail freight industry - including case studies, analysis of different decarbonizing technologies such as electrification, adoption of alternative fuels, and hydrogen.

Reasons to Buy

• Identify market trends within the industry and assess who the biggest players in land freight are and what they are doing to reduce emissions.
• Develop market insight of the major technologies used to decarbonize land freight through case studies from industry leaders in both road and rail.
• Understand adoption trends of emerging low-carbon technologies such as hydrogen fuel cell vehicles and hydrogen-powered rail.

Table of Contents

Table of Contents

• Executive summary
• Road and rail freight carbon emissions
• Introduction to energy transition technologies
• Assessing the decarbonization potential of energy transition technologies
• Main challenges to decarbonizing road and rail freight
• Road and rail freight net-zero emission targets
• Electrifying road and rail freight
• Alternative fuels in road and rail freight: biodiesel and synthetic fuels
• Hydrogen in road and rail freight
• The way forward: sector cooperation