米国のレベル4自律走行トラック市場：市場の成長可能性とラストマイルB2Cデリバリー

2040年までに、ラストマイルB2Cデリバリーセグメントの31.4％がクラス1から6の自律走行車両によって賄われ、自律走行による総収入は約699億8,000万米ドルに達すると予測されています。

当レポートでは、米国のレベル4自律走行トラック市場について調査し、市場の概要とともに、戦略的インペラティブ、成長の機会などを提供しています。

目次

戦略的インペラティブ

• 成長がますます困難になるのはなぜか
• 戦略的インペラティブ
• 上位3つの戦略的インペラティブの影響
• 成長の機会が成長パイプラインエンジンを加速させる

成長環境

• 車両自動化のレベル
• SAE定義の影響
• 自動化のためのさまざまな地域的手段
• ラストマイルデリバリー事業の内訳
• ラストマイルB2Cのデリバリーモード- 従来型と自律型
• 自律型企業のテスト/展開情勢
• 調査範囲
• 調査の目的と目的
• 自律技術のセグメンテーション
• 成長促進要因
• 成長抑制要因
• 成長指標

予測調査手法

• 予測調査手法

セグメント1-ラストマイルB2Cデリバリークラス1-6 VIO予測

• 米国の総小売売上高- すべての主要なラストマイルセグメント
• セグメント分類#1-自動車部品および付属品
• セグメント分類#2-インテリア・ハードウェア
• セグメント分類#3-エレクトロニクス・アプライアンス
• セグメント分類#4-食料品・その他の必需品
• セグメント分類#5-非店舗小売業者
• セグメント分類#6-その他の商品
• クラス1-6ラストマイルB2CデリバリーVIO

セグメント2-大都市圏のフェーズ別自律的準備状況の予測

• 自律スコアの上位384大都市圏の選択
• 自律ルートの準備状況に影響を与える要因- 人口スコア
• 自律ルートの準備状況に影響を与える要因- 人口密度
• 自律ルートの準備状況に影響を与える要因- 消費スコア
• 自律ルートの準備状況に影響を与える要因- 年齢層スコア
• 自律ルートの準備状況に影響を与える要因- 規制スコア
• フェーズ1首都圏の選択- 予測TAAM &SAAM
• フェーズ2首都圏の選択- 予測TAAM &SAAM
• フェーズ3首都圏の選択- 予測TAAM &SAAM
• 首都圏選定まとめ～予想TAAM＆SAAM～

セグメント3-ラストマイルB2Cデリバリーにおける自律型CVの合計の予測

結論

市場参入企業プロファイル

• Udelv
• Gatik
• Robomart

成長の機会領域

• 成長の機会1-有利な自律規制
• 成長の機会2-自律的な収益の可能性
• 成長の機会3-新たな用途と多様な運用条件

次のステップ

Transformational Growth of Autonomous Vehicle Adoption to Result in 31.4% Autonomously-driven Last-mile B2C Deliveries in 2040

Autonomous trucks are the next logical step to overcome logistics bottlenecks and match pace with the rapidly changing freight carriage ecosystem. Unlike human drivers, who must limit their operating hours to remain safe, autonomous systems can operate trucks 24-7, increasing commodity flow in the freight value system. Several leading automotive OEMs have taken the initiative to develop and test their autonomous technologies, while some have invested in emerging technology start-ups.

The Society of Automotive Engineers (SAE) defines 5 levels of vehicle automation. The higher the level, the higher the transfer of driving responsibility to machines, with L4 and L5 being very high automation. Each segment of transportation has scope for automation. The level of complexity varies, but for journeys ranging in length, from last-mile delivery and utility applications within a city to interstate long-haul transport, automated vehicles can change the transportation landscape.

This report focuses on the last-mile B2C delivery segment, where the product reaches the customer's location. It can include food and groceries from a neighborhood store or eCommerce parcels from local fulfillment centers. The routes are usually multistop, with deliveries at multiple customer locations in a single trip, and the weight of the goods varies.

The report analyzes application-wise retail sales data in the last-mile B2C delivery segment to calculate the potential total vehicles in operation, catered by Class 1 to 6 commercial vehicles. The total autonomous addressable market (TAAM) and the share of autonomous adoption within the addressable market (SAAM) are calculated for 2022, 2030, and 2040 by grass root analysis of each metropolitan area and phase-wise segregation of adoption.

Per Frost & Sullivan estimates, by 2040, 31.4% of the last-mile B2C delivery segment will be catered by autonomous Class 1 to 6 vehicles, and the total autonomous revenue will be approximately $69.98 B.

Table of Contents

Strategic Imperatives

• Why is it Increasingly Difficult to Grow?
• The Strategic Imperative 8™
• The Impact of the Top 3 Strategic
• Growth Opportunities Fuel the Growth Pipeline Engine™

Growth Environment

• Levels of Vehicle Automation
• Impact of SAE Definitions
• Different Territorial Avenues for Automation
• Breakdown for Last-mile Delivery Operations
• Delivery Modes in Last-mile B2C-Conventional versus Autonomous
• Autonomous Companies' Testing/Deployment Landscape
• Research Scope
• Research Aims and Objectives
• Autonomous Technology Segmentation
• Growth Drivers
• Growth Restraints
• Growth Metrics

Forecast Methodology

• Forecast Methodology

Segment 1-Last-mile B2C Delivery Class 1-6 VIO Forecast

• Total US Retail Sales-All Major Last-mile Segment Applications
• Segment Classification #1-Auto Parts & Accessories
• Segment Classification #2-Home Decor & Hardware
• Segment Classification #3-Electronics & Appliances
• Segment Classification #4-Grocery & Other Necessities
• Segment Classification #5-Nonstore Retailer
• Segment Classification #6-Other Merchandise
• Class 1-6 Last-mile B2C Delivery VIO

Segment 2-Forecasting Phase-wise Autonomous Readiness of Metropolitan Areas

• Selection of Top 384 Metropolitan Areas for Autonomous Score
• Factors Impacting Autonomous Route Readiness-Population Score
• Factors Impacting Autonomous Route Readiness-Population Density
• Factors Impacting Autonomous Route Readiness-Consumption Score
• Factors Impacting Autonomous Route Readiness-Age Group Score
• Factors Impacting Autonomous Route Readiness-Regulation Score
• Phase 1 Metropolitan Area Selection-Forecasting TAAM & SAAM
• Phase 2 Metropolitan Area Selection-Forecasting TAAM & SAAM
• Phase 3 Metropolitan Area Selection-Forecasting TAAM & SAAM
• Summary of Metropolitan Area Selection-Forecasting TAAM & SAAM

Segment 3-Forecast of Total Autonomous CVs in Last-mile B2C Delivery

• Total Class 1-6 Last-mile B2C Delivery VIO-Application-wise Split
• Total Class 1-6 Last-mile B2C Delivery TAAM VIO-Application-wise Split
• Total Class 1-6 Last-mile B2C Delivery SAAM VIO-Application-wise Spilt
• Total Class 1-6 Last-mile B2C Delivery-Revenue Forecast

Conclusion

• Class 1-6 Autonomous Vehicles in Last-mile B2C Delivery-Units & Revenue Potential
• Key Takeaways

Last-mile B2C Autonomous Player Profiles

• Udelv
• Gatik
• Robomart*

Growth Opportunity Universe

• Growth Opportunity 1-Favorable Autonomous Regulations
• Growth Opportunity 1-Favorable Autonomous Regulations (continued)
• Growth Opportunity 2-Autonomous Revenue Potential
• Growth Opportunity 2-Autonomous Revenue Potential (continued)
• Growth Opportunity 3-New Applications and Diverse Operational Conditions
• Growth Opportunity 3-New Applications and Diverse Operational Conditions (continued)

Next Steps

• Your Next Steps
• Why Frost, Why Now?
• List of Exhibits
• List of Exhibits (continued)
• List of Exhibits (continued)
• Legal Disclaimer