グリーンアンモニアの世界市場：2024～2031年

世界のグリーンアンモニアの市場規模は、2023年に2億米ドルに達し、2024～2031年の予測期間中にCAGR 52.95％で成長し、2031年には59億米ドルに達すると予測されています。

アンモニアは有毒ガスで、農業肥料の生産によく使用されます。グリーンアンモニア生産とは、100％再生可能でカーボンフリーのアンモニア生産を指します。水の電気分解による水素と空気から取り出した窒素を使用するのが、グリーンアンモニア生産の1つの方法です。その後、再生可能エネルギーで動くハーバープロセスに投入されます。このプロセスでは、水素と窒素を高温高圧で結合させてアンモニア（NH3）を生成します。

一方、アンモニア生産は現在のところ「グリーン」プロセスではないです。アンモニアは通常、メタン、水、空気から製造され、水素は水蒸気メタン改質法（SMR）とハーバー法で製造されます。SMR法では、生産される二酸化炭素の約90％が発生します。このプロセスは多くのエネルギーを使用し、世界の二酸化炭素排出量の約1.8％を排出します。

市場力学

世界中で再生可能エネルギー生産システムの導入が進んでいるため、水素という形で再生可能エネルギーを貯蔵する必要性が劇的に高まっています。その結果、水素イオンのベクトルとしてアンモニアが最適であることから、グリーンアンモニアへの取り組みがいくつか始まっています。しかし、アンモニア設備への高額な資本支出は、市場拡大の足かせとなる可能性があります。

再生可能エネルギーへの長期的需要

設備容量の増加という点では、再生可能エネルギー発電が化石燃料発電を上回っています。世界の再生可能エネルギー発電容量は、2020年までに前年比10.3％増の2.79テラワット（TW）に達します。国際再生可能エネルギー機関（IEA）によれば、太陽光と風力は高い可能性を秘めた再生可能エネルギーであり、今後数年間は再生可能エネルギー分野を支配すると予想されています。

太陽エネルギーと風力エネルギーは、他の再生可能エネルギー発電よりも急速に成長しており、投資額が増加し、発電コストが低下しています。その結果、再生可能エネルギー発電とそれに対応する貯蔵要件の増加が、グリーンアンモニア産業を前進させると思われます。

海上燃料としてのグリーンアンモニア

海運産業は現在、船舶用ディーゼル燃料と高硫黄燃料の大量消費により、世界の温室効果ガス排出量の3％を占めています。重油は船舶の燃料油として最も一般的なもので、原油の蒸留残渣として得られます。硫黄分の多い燃料を船のエンジンで燃やすと、有害なSOxが大気中に放出されます。

一方、海運産業は転換期を迎えています。海運産業は、よりクリーンなエネルギー源への転換による排出量削減を迫られています。IMO（国際海事機関）の2020年基準（質量基準）では、指定排出規制区域外を航行する船舶に使用される輸送油の硫黄規制値が0.5％m/mに引き下げられました。より高品質の船舶用燃料へとシフトし、グリーンアンモニア産業の展望が開けると思われます。

高い資本投資

グリーンアンモニアプラントの高い資本集約性が、現在、市場拡大の最も大きな障害となっています。グリーンアンモニアプラントのコストは、天然ガスベースのアンモニアプラントの1.5倍です。プラントの運転コストの約75％を占める天然ガスまたは石炭は、アンモニア生産における主要な運転コストです。一般的なアンモニアメーカーは、再生可能エネルギーと電解槽のコストがさらに下がらない限り、従来のアンモニア生産からグリーンアンモニア生産に移行することはできず、市場拡大の妨げとなります。

COVID-19影響分析

2020年3月下旬、COVID-19が不要不急の企業や国境を閉鎖し始めたため、多数のパッケージング企業が産業調査を実施し、化学メーカー、材料サプライヤー、機械メーカーに対するCOVID-19の影響に関する有意義な指標を提供しました。

重要であるとみなされた産業は、最大95％の生産能力レベルで操業していました。企業が持続可能性対策を採用するにつれて、COVID-19危機の影響が薄れるにつれて、輸送、発電、工業用原料におけるグリーンアンモニアの需要は、かなり高い割合で増加すると思われます。

目次

第1章 世界のグリーンアンモニア市場の調査手法と範囲

• 調査手法
• 調査目的と調査範囲

第2章 世界のグリーンアンモニア市場：市場定義と概要

第3章 世界のグリーンアンモニア市場：エグゼクティブサマリー

• 市場内訳：技術別
• 市場内訳：エンドユーザー別
• 市場内訳：地域別

第4章 世界のグリーンアンモニア市場 - 市場力学

• 市場に影響を与える要因
  • 促進要因
    • 再生可能エネルギーへの長期的需要
    • 海上燃料としてのグリーンアンモニア
  • 抑制要因
    • 高い設備投資
  • 機会
  • 影響分析

第5章 世界のグリーンアンモニア市場 - 産業分析

• ポーターのファイブフォース分析
• サプライチェーン分析
• 価格分析
• 規制分析

第6章 世界のグリーンアンモニア市場 - COVID-19分析

• COVID-19の市場分析
  • COVID-19以前の市場シナリオ
  • 現在のCOVID-19市場シナリオ
  • COVID-19後または将来のシナリオ
• COVID-19の価格ダイナミクス
• 需給スペクトラム
• パンデミック時の市場に関連する政府の取り組み
• メーカーの戦略的取り組み
• 結論

第7章 世界のグリーンアンモニア市場 - 技術別

• アルカリ水電解(AWE)
• プロトン交換膜電解（PEM）
• 固体酸化物電解（SOE）

第8章 世界のグリーンアンモニア市場 - エンドユーザー別

• 輸送
• 発電
• 工業用原料

第9章 世界のグリーンアンモニア市場 - 地域別

• 北米
  • 米国
  • カナダ
  • メキシコ
• 欧州
  • ドイツ
  • 英国
  • フランス
  • イタリア
  • スペイン
  • その他の欧州
• 南米
  • ブラジル
  • アルゼンチン
  • その他の南米
• アジア太平洋
  • 中国
  • インド
  • 日本
  • オーストラリア
  • その他のアジア太平洋
• 中東・アフリカ

第10章 世界のグリーンアンモニア市場：競合情勢

• 競合シナリオ
• 市況/シェア分析
• 合併・買収分析

第11章 世界のグリーンアンモニア市場 - 企業プロファイル

• ThyssenKrupp
• Siemens Energy
• Man Energy Solutions
• Nel Hydrogen
• Green Hydrogen Systems
• ITM Power
• Mcphy Energy
• Hydrogenics
• Star Fire Energy
• AquaHydrex

第12章 世界のグリーンアンモニア市場 - 重要考察

第13章 世界のグリーンアンモニア市場 - データ分析

Overview

The global green ammonia market size was worth US$ 0.2 billion in 2023 and is estimated to reach US$ 5.9 billion by 2031, growing at a CAGR of 52.95% during the forecast period (2024-2031).

Ammonia is a poisonous gas that is commonly employed in agricultural fertilizer production. Green ammonia production refers to ammonia production that is 100% renewable and carbon-free. Using hydrogen from water electrolysis and nitrogen extracted from the air is one method of green ammonia production. It is then put into the Haber process, wholly powered by renewable energy. The process produces ammonia, NH3, by combining hydrogen and nitrogen at high temperatures and pressures.

On the other hand, ammonia production is currently not a "green" process. It's usually manufactured from methane, water and air, with the hydrogen produced using steam methane reforming (SMR) and the Haber process. The SMR method produces around 90% of the carbon dioxide produced. This process uses a lot of energy and emits about 1.8 percent of the world's carbon dioxide.

Market Dynamics

The need for renewable energy storage in the form of hydrogen has risen dramatically due to the growing adoption of renewable energy-producing systems worldwide. As a result, several green ammonia initiatives have been started because it is the best hydrogen ion vector. However, the expensive capital expenditure on ammonia facilities may operate as a stumbling block to market expansion.

Long-term demand for renewable energy

In terms of capacity addition, renewable energy generation exceeds fossil fuel power generation. Global renewable capacity had reached 2.79 terawatts (TW) by 2020, up 10.3 percent from the previous year. As per the International Renewable Energy Agency, solar and wind are high-potential renewable energy sources and are expected to dominate the renewable energy sector in the future years.

Solar and wind energy have grown faster than other renewable energy sources, rising investment and lower power generation costs. As a result, rising renewable energy generation and corresponding storage requirements will propel the green ammonia industry forward.

Green ammonia as a maritime fuel

The shipping industry is currently responsible for 3% of the global greenhouse gas emissions, owing to the high consumption of diesel and high sulfur fuel for ships. Heavy fuel oil is ships' most common bunker oil, obtained as a leftover from crude oil distillation. When oil with high sulfur content is burned in a ship engine, toxic SOx is released into the sky.

The marine industry, on the other hand, is undergoing a transition. The maritime industry is under pressure to reduce emissions by switching to cleaner energy sources. The sulfur limit in transportation oil used on board ships operating outside designated emission control areas has been cut to 0.5 percent m/m under the International Maritime Organization (IMO) 2020 standards (mass by mass). It will shift toward higher-quality marine fuels, opening up prospects in the green ammonia industry.

High capital investment

The high capital-intensive nature of green ammonia plants is now the most significant impediment to the market's expansion. The cost of green ammonia plants is 1.5 times that of natural gas-based ammonia plants. For about 75% of the plant's operating costs, natural gas or coal is the major operating cost in ammonia manufacturing. General ammonia manufacturers will not be able to move from traditional ammonia production to green ammonia production unless the cost of renewable energy and electrolyzers falls further, hampering market expansion.

COVID-19 Impact Analysis

In late March 2020, as COVID-19 began closing non-essential enterprises and borders, numerous packaging companies created industry surveys to provide meaningful measures regarding the impact of COVID-19 on chemical makers, material suppliers and machinery manufacturers.

Industries deemed critical were operating at capacity levels of up to 95%. As companies adopt sustainability measures, the demand for green ammonia in transportation, power generation and industrial feedstock will likely rise at a significantly high rate as the impacts of COVID-19 crisis fade away.

Segment Analysis

The green ammonia market is segmented by end-users as transportation, power generation and industrial feedstock.

Rising use of ammonia in power generation

The rising need for energy in many end-use sectors is largely responsible for this segment's rise. Renewable energy can be stored and reused for power generation at consumption sites with green ammonia production. It will improve the efficiency and long-term viability of renewable energy generation. Combined with natural gas or hydrogen, ammonia can also be burned directly in gas turbines. If ammonia is imported as a hydrogen carrier, burning it directly could prevent the need for ammonia cracking (which is required to convert it back to hydrogen), eliminating an energy-intensive step in the process.

Ammonia also takes up less space in the storage tank than hydrogen. Ammonia is also less reactive than hydrogen, burning at a lower temperature with a slower flame and a limited flammability range. While ammonia fire presents a flame stability difficulty, it is less than hydrogen, with NOx abatement remaining the primary concern. However, as previously stated, NOx abatement using well-proven selective catalytic reduction systems is already being employed successfully in several nations' stationary NOx emitters, such as power plants.

Several businesses are working on engines and turbines that use ammonia as fuel. Mitsubishi, for example, is working on a gas turbine that can run on ammonia as a fuel. Thermal cracking of ammonia produces hydrogen, nitrogen and trace amounts of ammonia, utilized as a fuel in gas turbines.

Geographical Share

The presence of green hydrogen projects in Europe

In the global market, Europe is expected to have a large share. The existence of green hydrogen projects around the region is primarily driving the region's growth. The green ammonia market in the region is expected to increase due to a rising number of fuel cell projects and government initiatives to deploy fuel cells in the residential and commercial sectors.

Furthermore, the rapid adoption of electric vehicles in this region is likely to raise the market for fuel cells, which would boost the market for green ammonia. A crucial aspect driving the region's green ammonia market is the increased preference for sustainable energy sources for power generation and transportation fuel.

Furthermore, significant market participants across the region and their contributions to creating new production plants are a major contributor to the region's high market share. For example, Haldor Topsoe declared in March 2021 that it would produce green ammonia for naval fuel in Germany. Aquamarine Investment Partners, a private capital manager, is leading the project. They signed a Memorandum of Understanding with Haldor Topsoe, a Danish company working on multiple initiatives to produce green hydrogen, ammonia, eMethanol and green fuels.

Russia-Ukraine War Impact:

Fertilizer prices had already reached historic highs at the time of the Russia-Ukraine crisis. They have been increasing since late 2020 due to a variety of circumstances. Fertilizer demand, which fell during the COVID 19 lockdowns, regained in late 2020/2021 as restrictions were released and crop prices increased. On the supply side, rising natural gas and coal costs-key feedstocks and energy sources in fertilizer manufacturing-along with some decreases in production capacity, pushed prices higher.

The outbreak of war on February 24, 2022, caused prices to skyrocket. The conflict itself, additional or expanded economic sanctions on Russia and Belarus, and disruptions in Black Sea trade routes all contributed to increased uncertainty over fertilizer exports from the two countries. Russia and Belarus are significant producers of all three key fertilizer nutrients. In 2020, Russia accounted for 14% of global urea commerce and 11% of global phosphate trade, with Russia and Belarus accounting for 41% of global potash trade combined. The fact that a limited number of nations manufacture a substantial proportion of internationally sold fertilizers renders the industry vulnerable to trade shocks.

Countries that rely significantly on fertilizer imports from Russia and Belarus feared an immediate shortage, and many scrambled to find other sources in a very tight global market. However, with around three-quarters of all countries importing at least half of their fertilizer usage, trade shocks caused by the conflict echoed over the world.

By Technology

Alkaline Water Electrolysis (AWE)

Proton Exchange Membrane (PEM)

Solid Oxide Electrolysis (SOE)

By End-user

Transportation

Power Generation

Industrial Feedstock

By Region

North America

U.S.

Canada

Mexico

Europe

Germany

UK

France

Italy

Russia

Rest of Europe

South America

Brazil

Argentina

Rest of South America

Asia-Pacific

China

India

Japan

Australia

Rest of Asia-Pacific

Middle East and Africa

Recent Developments

In May 2024, Cepsa has picked thyssenkrupp nucera as the preferred supplier for a 300-megawatt electrolyzer for its new green hydrogen plant in Spain, set to open. The deal was revealed at the World Hydrogen Summit in Rotterdam. The electrolyzer will play an important role in producing green hydrogen, helping Cepsa's efforts to create sustainable energy solutions.

In October 2023, DAI Infrastruktur partnered with Egyptian technology behemoth Siemens Energy to create a green ammonia project in East Port Said, Egypt. DAI's Ra project is expected to begin production of green ammonia in 2028, with a total capacity of 2 million tons per year (mtpa). Siemens will provide electrolysers, auxiliary plant systems, and other equipment for the "hydrogen island" part of Project Ra. During the project development phase, both firms will work together to provide engineering services.

In September 2023, OPAL Fuels entered into a joint venture with South Jersey Industries, an energy infrastructure holding firm, to develop, build, own, and operate RNG facilities.

In August 2022, Uniper SE signed a Memorandum of Understanding with EverWind Fuels to purchase green ammonia from EverWind's first manufacturing facility in Nova Scotia. EverWind and Uniper seek to reach a definitive offtake deal for 500,000 tonnes of green ammonia annually.

Green Ammonia Market Competitive Landscape

Major global Green Ammonia market companies include ThyssenKrupp, Siemens Energy, Man Energy Solutions, Nel Hydrogen, Green Hydrogen Systems, ITM Power, Mcphy Energy, Hydrogenics, Star Fire Energy and AquaHydrex.

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Target Audience 2024

Green Ammonia Service Providers/ Buyers

Industry Investors/Investment Bankers

Education & Research Institutes

Emerging Companies

Green Ammonia Manufacturers

Table of Contents

1. Global Green Ammonia Market Methodology and Scope

• 1.1. Research Methodology
• 1.2. Research Objective and Scope of the Report

2. Global Green Ammonia Market - Market Definition and Overview

3. Global Green Ammonia Market - Executive Summary

• 3.1. Market Snippet By Technology
• 3.2. Market Snippet By End-User
• 3.3. Market Snippet By Region

4. Global Green Ammonia Market-Market Dynamics

• 4.1. Market Impacting Factors
  • 4.1.1. Drivers
    • 4.1.1.1. Long-term demand for renewable energy
    • 4.1.1.2. Green ammonia as a maritime fuel
  • 4.1.2. Restraints
    • 4.1.2.1. High capital investment
  • 4.1.3. Opportunity
  • 4.1.4. Impact Analysis

5. Global Green Ammonia Market - Industry Analysis

• 5.1. Porter's Five Forces Analysis
• 5.2. Supply Chain Analysis
• 5.3. Pricing Analysis
• 5.4. Regulatory Analysis

6. Global Green Ammonia Market - COVID-19 Analysis

• 6.1. Analysis of COVID-19 on the Market
  • 6.1.1. Before COVID-19 Market Scenario
  • 6.1.2. Present COVID-19 Market Scenario
  • 6.1.3. After COVID-19 or Future Scenario
• 6.2. Pricing Dynamics Amid COVID-19
• 6.3. Demand-Supply Spectrum
• 6.4. Government Initiatives Related to the Market During Pandemic
• 6.5. Manufacturers Strategic Initiatives
• 6.6. Conclusion

7. Global Green Ammonia Market - By Technology

• 7.1. Introduction
  • 7.1.1. Market Size Analysis and Y-o-Y Growth Analysis (%), By Technology
  • 7.1.2. Market Attractiveness Index, By Technology
• 7.2. Alkaline Water Electrolysis(AWE)*
  • 7.2.1. Introduction
  • 7.2.2. Market Size Analysis and Y-o-Y Growth Analysis (%)
• 7.3. Proton Exchange Membrane(PEM)
• 7.4. Solid Oxide Electrolysis(SOE)

8. Global Green Ammonia Market - By End-User

• 8.1. Introduction
  • 8.1.1. Market Size Analysis and Y-o-Y Growth Analysis (%), By End-User.
  • 8.1.2. Market Attractiveness Index, By End-User
• 8.2. Transportation*
  • 8.2.1. Introduction
  • 8.2.2. Market Size Analysis and Y-o-Y Growth Analysis (%)
• 8.3. Power Generation
• 8.4. Industrial Feedstock

9. Global Green Ammonia Market - By Region

• 9.1. Introduction
• 9.2. Market Size Analysis and Y-o-Y Growth Analysis (%), By Region
• 9.3. Market Attractiveness Index, By Region
• 9.4. North America
  • 9.4.1. Introduction
  • 9.4.2. Key Region-Specific Dynamics
  • 9.4.3. Market Size Analysis and Y-o-Y Growth Analysis (%), By Technology
  • 9.4.4. Market Size Analysis and Y-o-Y Growth Analysis (%), By End-User
  • 9.4.5. Market Size Analysis and Y-o-Y Growth Analysis (%), By Country
    • 9.4.5.1. U.S.
    • 9.4.5.2. Canada
    • 9.4.5.3. Mexico
• 9.5. Europe
  • 9.5.1. Introduction
  • 9.5.2. Key Region-Specific Dynamics
  • 9.5.3. Market Size Analysis and Y-o-Y Growth Analysis (%), By Technology
  • 9.5.4. Market Size Analysis and Y-o-Y Growth Analysis (%), By End-User
  • 9.5.5. Market Size Analysis and Y-o-Y Growth Analysis (%), By Country
    • 9.5.5.1. Germany
    • 9.5.5.2. UK
    • 9.5.5.3. France
    • 9.5.5.4. Italy
    • 9.5.5.5. Spain
    • 9.5.5.6. Rest of Europe
• 9.6. South America
  • 9.6.1. Introduction
  • 9.6.2. Key Region-Specific Dynamics
  • 9.6.3. Market Size Analysis and Y-o-Y Growth Analysis (%), By Technology
  • 9.6.4. Market Size Analysis and Y-o-Y Growth Analysis (%), By End-User
  • 9.6.5. Market Size Analysis and Y-o-Y Growth Analysis (%), By Country
    • 9.6.5.1. Brazil
    • 9.6.5.2. Argentina
    • 9.6.5.3. Rest of South America
• 9.7. Asia-Pacific
  • 9.7.1. Introduction
  • 9.7.2. Key Region-Specific Dynamics
  • 9.7.3. Market Size Analysis and Y-o-Y Growth Analysis (%), By Technology
  • 9.7.4. Market Size Analysis and Y-o-Y Growth Analysis (%), By End-User
  • 9.7.5. Market Size Analysis and Y-o-Y Growth Analysis (%), By Country
    • 9.7.5.1. China
    • 9.7.5.2. India
    • 9.7.5.3. Japan
    • 9.7.5.4. Australia
    • 9.7.5.5. Rest of Asia-Pacific
• 9.8. The Middle East and Africa
  • 9.8.1. Introduction
  • 9.8.2. Key Region-Specific Dynamics
  • 9.8.3. Market Size Analysis and Y-o-Y Growth Analysis (%), By Technology
  • 9.8.4. Market Size Analysis and Y-o-Y Growth Analysis (%), By End-User

10. Global Green Ammonia Market - Competitive Landscape

• 10.1. Competitive Scenario
• 10.2. Market Positioning/Share Analysis
• 10.3. Mergers and Acquisitions Analysis

11. Global Green Ammonia Market - Company Profiles

• 11.1. ThyssenKrupp
  • 11.1.1. Company Overview
  • 11.1.2. Product Portfolio and Description
  • 11.1.3. Key Highlights
  • 11.1.4. Financial Overview
• 11.2. Siemens Energy
• 11.3. Man Energy Solutions
• 11.4. Nel Hydrogen
• 11.5. Green Hydrogen Systems
• 11.6. ITM Power
• 11.7. Mcphy Energy
• 11.8. Hydrogenics
• 11.9. Star Fire Energy
• 11.10. AquaHydrex (*LIST NOT EXHAUSTIVE)

12. Global Green Ammonia Market - Premium Insights

13. Global Green Ammonia Market - DataM

• 13.1. Appendix
• 13.2. About Us and Services
• 13.3. Contact Us