ブルーアンモニアの世界市場：2023年～2030年

概要

世界のブルーアンモニアの市場規模は、2022年に23億米ドルに達し、2023年～2030年の予測期間中にCAGR55.2％で成長し、2030年には767億米ドルに達すると予測されています。

鉄鋼生産、工業用電力加熱、大型道路輸送など、重度汚染産業の脱炭素化に向けた継続的な取り組みは、世界のブルーアンモニア市場に新たな成長の道をもたらすと思われます。ブルーアンモニアは、原油や石炭などの化石燃料に代わる有用な低炭素燃料です。

世界のブルーアンモニア市場の長期的成長の可能性は、商業的収益性に関する課題により阻まれています。コスト高や採算割れを懸念して、世界中で大規模プロジェクトが相次いで中止されています。収益性を解決することは、世界市場の長期的成長を守る上で重要な課題となると思われます。

力学

水素経済への動きの高まり

脱炭素化はここ数年、世界のエネルギー業界の大きな動向となっています。しかし、短期的に化石燃料を完全に廃止することは不可能ですが、政府やエネルギー企業は、代替エネルギー源の開発・成熟に向けて徐々に動き出しています。そのひとつとして注目されているのが水素です。

各国政府はすでに、新興経済諸国である水素経済を発展・拡大させるためのインセンティブを打ち出しています。例えば、インド政府は2023年度連邦予算で、国家水素ミッションの開発に1,974億インドルピー（16億4,000万米ドル）の支出を割り当てています。

水素経済への段階的な移行に向けた資金とインセンティブの増加は、ブルーアンモニア市場の成長を大きく後押しすると思われます。これは、費用対効果の高い水素製造技術の開発にインセンティブを与え、ひいてはブルーアンモニアの製造コストを引き下げ、さまざまな産業での採用を増加させると思われます。

農業生産性向上への需要の高まり

国連（UN）は、22年の世界人口を約80億人と推定しており、2010年以降10億人近く増加しています。世界人口の急激な増加は、世界の食糧需要を満たすための農業資源にストレスを与えています。世界の農業分野は、異常気象の増加や耕地の減少など、さまざまな課題に直面しています。

世界的に、農家は水不足、肥料の入手制限、環境問題など、さまざまな資源制約に直面しています。生産性を向上させることで、農家はより少ない資源でより多くの生産量を達成することができます。化学肥料を適切に利用すれば、農家の生産性を大幅に向上させることができます。

ブルーアンモニアは、費用対効果の高い規模での化学肥料の大量生産を可能にし、農業生産性の向上という課題の軽減に貢献します。したがって、農業生産性を向上させる動きは、世界のブルーアンモニア市場に新たな成長機会を提供することになります。

ブルーアンモニア生産の高コスト

政府やエネルギー企業からの支持は高まっているもの、ブルーアンモニアは本格的な商業化に向けて依然として大きな課題に直面しています。商業生産のコストが高いことも、そうした課題のひとつです。天然ガスは、ブルーアンモニア製造の最も重要な原料であり、天然ガス価格の変動は、全体的なコスト検討の大きな要因となっています。

より多くの新しい生産設備が稼動すれば、長期的には全体的な生産コストが下がり、ブルーアンモニアの採用が増えると予想されます。しかし、短期的には、ブルーアンモニア市場は比較的高いコストに見舞われており、他の従来型エネルギーと競合することはできません。これは、世界市場の短期的な成長見通しを妨げると思われます。

目次

第1章 調査手法と調査範囲

第2章 定義と概要

第3章 エグゼクティブサマリー

第4章 市場力学

• 影響要因
  • 促進要因
    • 水素経済への動きの高まり
    • 農業生産性向上への需要の高まり
  • 抑制要因
    • ブルーアンモニア製造の高コスト
  • 機会
  • 影響分析

第5章 産業分析

• ポーターのファイブフォース分析
• サプライチェーン分析
• 価格分析
• 規制分析
• ロシア・ウクライナ戦争の影響分析
• DMIの見解

第6章 COVID-19分析

第7章 技術別

• スチームメタン改質
• オートサーマル改質
• ガス部分酸化

第8章 用途別

• 輸送
• 発電
• 工業用原料
• その他

第9章 地域別

• 北米
  • 米国
  • カナダ
  • メキシコ
• 欧州
  • ドイツ
  • 英国
  • フランス
  • イタリア
  • スペイン
  • その他欧州
• 南米
  • ブラジル
  • アルゼンチン
  • その他南米
• アジア太平洋
  • 中国
  • インド
  • 日本
  • オーストラリア
  • その他アジア太平洋
• 中東・アフリカ

第10章 競合情勢

• 競合シナリオ
• 市況/シェア分析
• M&A分析

第11章 企業プロファイル

• Yara International ASA
  • 会社概要
  • 製品ポートフォリオと説明
  • 財務概要
  • 主な発展
• Saudi Arabian Oil Co.
• OCI
• CF Industries Holdings, Inc.
• QAFCO
• ExxonMobil Corporation
• Linde
• Shell plc
• Uniper SE
• ADNOC Group

第12章 付録

Overview

Global Blue Ammonia Market reached US$ 2.3 billion in 2022 and is expected to reach US$ 76.7 billion by 2030, growing with a CAGR of 55.2% during the forecast period 2023-2030.

The ongoing efforts to decarbonize heavily polluting industries such as iron and steel production, industrial power heating and heavy road transport will provide new growth avenues for the global blue ammonia market. Blue ammonia is a useful low-carbon alternative to fossil fuels such as crude oil and coal.

The long term growth potential for the global blue ammonia market is hobbled by challenges related to commercial profitability. A string of major projects across the world have been cancelled due to concerns over mounting costs and failure to break even. Solving profitability will be a key challenge in safeguarding the long term growth of the global market.

Dynamics

Increasing Moves Towards a Hydrogen Economy

Decarbonization has become a major trend among the global energy industry over the past few years. However, although it is impossible to completely phase out fossil fuels over the short term, governments and energy companies are gradually making moves towards developing and maturing alternative energy sources. One such source that has received increased attention is hydrogen.

Governments are already rolling out incentives to develop and expand a nascent hydrogen economy. For instance, in the union budget 2023, the Indian government has allocated an outlay of ₹ 197.4 billion (US$ 1.64 billion) for the development of the national hydrogen mission.

The increase in funding and incentives for a gradual move towards a hydrogen economy would provide a major boost to the growth of the blue ammonia market. It will incentivize the development of cost effective hydrogen production technologies, which in turn, will lower production costs for blue ammonia and increase its adoption across various industries.

Rising Demand for Improved Agricultural Productivity

The United Nations (UN) has estimated the global population at around 8.0 billion in 2o22, representing an increase of nearly 1 billion since 2010. A rapid growth in global population has put stress on agricultural resources to satisfy global food demands. The global agricultural sector is experiencing various challenges, including rise of extreme weather events and loss of arable land.

Globally, farmers face various resource constraints, such as water scarcity, limited availability of fertilizers and environmental concerns. Increasing productivity allows farmers to achieve more output with fewer resources. Judicious utilization of chemical fertilizers can help farmers to achieve a major increase in productivity.

Blue ammonia can enable the large-scale production of chemical fertilizer at cost-effective scale, thus contributing towards alleviating the challenge of raising agricultural productivity. The drive to raise agricultural productivity will thus offer new growth opportunities for the global blue ammonia market.

High Cost of Blue Ammonia Production

Despite growing endorsements from governments and energy companies, blue ammonia still faces significant challenges to full-scale commercialization. The high cost of commercial production is one such challenge. Natural gas is the most important feedstock material for blue ammonia production and the fluctuations in natural gas prices is a major factor in overall cost considerations.

As more new capacity comes online, the overall production costs are expected to go down over the long term, thus increasing adoption of blue ammonia. However, over the short term, blue ammonia market has been bested with relatively high costs and is unable to compete with other conventional forms of energy. It will hamper the short-term growth prospects of the global market.

Segment Analysis

The global blue ammonia market is segmented based on technology, application and region.

Steam Methane Reforming Still Remains the Most Popular Production Technology

Steam methane reforming remains the most popular technology for blue ammonia production, mainly due to its cost effectiveness and energy efficiency. The process yields a very high purity of hydrogen, making it suitable for use in fuel cells and industrial feedstock applications. Most of the modern, high-capacity blue ammonia production facilities utilize steam methane reforming as a production technology.

The other technologies, namely, gas partial oxidation and autothermal reforming are much more intricate and energy intensive. As such, these technologies are not cost-effective for large scale production and hence are typically not used in commercial blue hydrogen production facilities. The only major purpose of these technologies is for hydrogen and ammonia production for niche applications.

Geographical Penetration

With Numerous New Projects, North America Garners Top Position

North America is expected to have the highest share within the global blue ammonia market since it has the some of the largest projects currently under construction. Most of the major energy companies are based in U.S and the current focus on blue ammonia is part of a larger strategy to make North America, especially U.S., a major export hub for hydrogen and blue ammonia.

Several new blue ammonia production facilities are in various stages of construction. For instance, in January 2024, INPEX Corporation, a Japanese multinational company signed an agreement with LSB Industries, a U.S.-based chemicals manufacturer, to construct a blue ammonia production and export facility in U.S. Gulf Coast.

However, despite promising developments, the market still has a series of challenges. For instance, in August 2023, Nutrien, a major U.S.-based fertilizer manufacturer, shelved plans for a 1.2 million ton capacity blue ammonia production facility in U.S. due to escalating costs and growing concerns about its profitability.

COVID-19 Impact Analysis

A major challenge for the global blue ammonia market emerged during the initial phase of the COVID-19 pandemic was the crash in global crude oil prices. As aviation and road transportation activities fell drastically, the collapse in demand led to a major decrease in crude oil prices. The massive decrease in crude oil prices temporarily made blue ammonia uncompetitive. Furthermore, capital investment in expanding blue ammonia production capacity also decreased due to the economic uncertainty of the pandemic period.

The difficult market conditions also created many problems for energy companies looking to diversify into blue ammonia production. Tightening supplies of various precursor materials to pandemic induced supply chain disruptions delayed the operationalization of various completed blue ammonia production facilities. The overall situation has improved considerably in the post-pandemic period and the industry has witnessed a surge in new investments.

Russia-Ukraine War Impact Analysis

The Russia-Ukraine war may have led to long-term irreversible changes to Europe's energy landscape. Although the war did cause major short-term volatility in global energy markets and led to the disruption of natural gas supplies due to severe economic sanctions on Russia, European nations have moved rapidly to phase out Russian energy imports. As such, an accelerated shift towards new energy sources has boosted the overall growth prospects of the blue ammonia market in Europe.

The most direct impact has been on the local blue ammonia markets in Russia. The economic sanctions on Russia have led to cessation of western parts and technology for local blue ammonia projects. In April 2022, Novatek, one of Russia's largest energy companies, cancelled its ongoing blue ammonia project citing a lack of access to technology and difficult market conditions. The Ukraine-Russia war is likely to boost the long-term growth prospects of the global blue ammonia market, especially in Europe.

By Technology

• Steam Methane Reforming
• Autothermal Reforming
• Gas Partial Oxidation

By Application

• Transportation
• Power Generation
• Industrial Feedstock
• Others

By Region

• North America
  • U.S.
  • Canada
  • Mexico
• Europe
  • Germany
  • UK
  • France
  • Italy
  • Spain
  • Rest of Europe
• South America
  • Brazil
  • Argentina
  • Rest of South America
• Asia-Pacific
  • China
  • India
  • Japan
  • Australia
  • Rest of Asia-Pacific
• Middle East and Africa

Key Developments

• In April 2023, Matexcel, Saudi Aramco, Saudi Arabia's state-owned oil and gas conglomerate flagged off its first shipment of blue ammonia to Japan. Aramco produced blue ammonia through feedstock produced by SABIC, the Saudi Arabian fertilizer manufacturer. The cargo was sold to Japan's Fuji Oil trading company.
• In March 2023, Linde, a European multinational manufacturer of industrial gases announced the signing of a new agreement with OCI, a multinational distributor of hydrogen products, to supply hydrogen for OCI's new blue ammonia facility in Texas, U.S.
• In March 2023, Mitsui and Co. Ltd, a Japanese multinational conglomerate operating across diversified sectors, announced a collaborative partnership with CF Industrial Holdings, Inc. to jointly develop a new blue ammonia production facility in U.S.

Competitive Landscape

The major global players in the market include Yara International ASA, Saudi Arabian Oil Co., OCI, CF Industries Holdings, Inc., QAFCO, ExxonMobil Corporation, Linde, Shell plc, Uniper SE and ADNOC Group.

Why Purchase the Report?

• To visualize the global blue ammonia market segmentation based on technology, application, end-user and region, as well as understand key commercial assets and players.
• Identify commercial opportunities by analyzing trends and co-development.
• Excel data sheet with numerous data points of pouch tapes market-level with all segments.
• PDF report consists of a comprehensive analysis after exhaustive qualitative interviews and an in-depth study.
• Product mapping available as excel consisting of key products of all the major players.

The global blue ammonia market report would provide approximately 49 tables, 39 figures and 180 Pages.

Target Audience 2023

• Energy Companies
• Fertilizer Manufacturers
• Industry Investors/Investment Bankers
• Research Professionals

Table of Contents

1. Methodology and Scope

• 1.1. Research Methodology
• 1.2. Research Objective and Scope of the Report

2. Definition and Overview

3. Executive Summary

• 3.1. Snippet by Technology
• 3.2. Snippet by Application
• 3.3. Snippet by Region

4. Dynamics

• 4.1. Impacting Factors
  • 4.1.1. Drivers
    • 4.1.1.1. Increasing moves towards a hydrogen economy
    • 4.1.1.2. Rising demand for improved agricultural productivity
  • 4.1.2. Restraints
    • 4.1.2.1. High cost of blue ammonia production
  • 4.1.3. Opportunity
  • 4.1.4. Impact Analysis

5. Industry Analysis

• 5.1. Porter's Five Force Analysis
• 5.2. Supply Chain Analysis
• 5.3. Pricing Analysis
• 5.4. Regulatory Analysis
• 5.5. Russia-Ukraine War Impact Analysis
• 5.6. DMI Opinion

6. COVID-19 Analysis

• 6.1. Analysis of COVID-19
  • 6.1.1. Scenario Before COVID
  • 6.1.2. Scenario During COVID
  • 6.1.3. Scenario Post COVID
• 6.2. Pricing Dynamics Amid COVID-19
• 6.3. Demand-Supply Spectrum
• 6.4. Government Initiatives Related to the Market During Pandemic
• 6.5. Manufacturers Strategic Initiatives
• 6.6. Conclusion

7. By Technology

• 7.1. Introduction
  • 7.1.1. Market Size Analysis and Y-o-Y Growth Analysis (%), By Technology
  • 7.1.2. Market Attractiveness Index, By Technology
• 7.2. Steam Methane Reforming*
  • 7.2.1. Introduction
  • 7.2.2. Market Size Analysis and Y-o-Y Growth Analysis (%)
• 7.3. Autothermal Reforming
• 7.4. Gas Partial Oxidation

8. By Application

• 8.1. Introduction
  • 8.1.1. Market Size Analysis and Y-o-Y Growth Analysis (%), By Application
  • 8.1.2. Market Attractiveness Index, By Application
• 8.2. Transportation*
  • 8.2.1. Introduction
  • 8.2.2. Market Size Analysis and Y-o-Y Growth Analysis (%)
• 8.3. Power Generation
• 8.4. Industrial Feedstock
• 8.5. Others

9. By Region

• 9.1. Introduction
  • 9.1.1. Market Size Analysis and Y-o-Y Growth Analysis (%), By Region
  • 9.1.2. Market Attractiveness Index, By Region
• 9.2. North America
  • 9.2.1. Introduction
  • 9.2.2. Key Region-Specific Dynamics
  • 9.2.3. Market Size Analysis and Y-o-Y Growth Analysis (%), By Technology
  • 9.2.4. Market Size Analysis and Y-o-Y Growth Analysis (%), By Application
  • 9.2.5. Market Size Analysis and Y-o-Y Growth Analysis (%), By Country
    • 9.2.5.1. U.S.
    • 9.2.5.2. Canada
    • 9.2.5.3. Mexico
• 9.3. Europe
  • 9.3.1. Introduction
  • 9.3.2. Key Region-Specific Dynamics
  • 9.3.3. Market Size Analysis and Y-o-Y Growth Analysis (%), By Technology
  • 9.3.4. Market Size Analysis and Y-o-Y Growth Analysis (%), By Application
  • 9.3.5. Market Size Analysis and Y-o-Y Growth Analysis (%), By Country
    • 9.3.5.1. Germany
    • 9.3.5.2. UK
    • 9.3.5.3. France
    • 9.3.5.4. Italy
    • 9.3.5.5. Spain
    • 9.3.5.6. Rest of Europe
• 9.4. South America
  • 9.4.1. Introduction
  • 9.4.2. Key Region-Specific Dynamics
  • 9.4.3. Market Size Analysis and Y-o-Y Growth Analysis (%), By Technology
  • 9.4.4. Market Size Analysis and Y-o-Y Growth Analysis (%), By Application
  • 9.4.5. Market Size Analysis and Y-o-Y Growth Analysis (%), By Country
    • 9.4.5.1. Brazil
    • 9.4.5.2. Argentina
    • 9.4.5.3. Rest of South America
• 9.5. Asia-Pacific
  • 9.5.1. Introduction
  • 9.5.2. Key Region-Specific Dynamics
  • 9.5.3. Market Size Analysis and Y-o-Y Growth Analysis (%), By Technology
  • 9.5.4. Market Size Analysis and Y-o-Y Growth Analysis (%), By Application
  • 9.5.5. Market Size Analysis and Y-o-Y Growth Analysis (%), By Country
    • 9.5.5.1. China
    • 9.5.5.2. India
    • 9.5.5.3. Japan
    • 9.5.5.4. Australia
    • 9.5.5.5. Rest of Asia-Pacific
• 9.6. Middle East and Africa
  • 9.6.1. Introduction
  • 9.6.2. Key Region-Specific Dynamics
  • 9.6.3. Market Size Analysis and Y-o-Y Growth Analysis (%), By Technology
  • 9.6.4. Market Size Analysis and Y-o-Y Growth Analysis (%), By Application
  • 9.6.5. Market Size Analysis and Y-o-Y Growth Analysis (%), By End-User

10. Competitive Landscape

• 10.1. Competitive Scenario
• 10.2. Market Positioning/Share Analysis
• 10.3. Mergers and Acquisitions Analysis

11. Company Profiles

• 11.1. Yara International ASA*
  • 11.1.1. Company Overview
  • 11.1.2. Product Portfolio and Description
  • 11.1.3. Financial Overview
  • 11.1.4. Key Developments
• 11.2. Saudi Arabian Oil Co.
• 11.3. OCI
• 11.4. CF Industries Holdings, Inc.
• 11.5. QAFCO
• 11.6. ExxonMobil Corporation
• 11.7. Linde
• 11.8. Shell plc
• 11.9. Uniper SE
• 11.10. ADNOC Group

LIST NOT EXHAUSTIVE

12. Appendix

• 12.1. About Us and Services
• 12.2. Contact Us