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超低硫黄燃料油市場の2032年までの予測:供給源、硫黄含有量、粘度グレード、コンプライアンス戦略、技術、用途、エンドユーザー、地域別の世界分析Very Low Sulfur Fuel Oil Market Forecasts to 2032 - Global Analysis By Source, Sulfur Content, Viscosity Grade, Compliance Strategy, Technology, Application, End User and By Geography |
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超低硫黄燃料油市場の2032年までの予測:供給源、硫黄含有量、粘度グレード、コンプライアンス戦略、技術、用途、エンドユーザー、地域別の世界分析 |
出版日: 2025年04月03日
発行: Stratistics Market Research Consulting
ページ情報: 英文 200+ Pages
納期: 2~3営業日
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Stratistics MRCによると、世界の超低硫黄燃料油(VLSFO)市場は2025年に964億9,000万米ドルを占め、2032年には1,637億8,000万米ドルに達すると予測され、予測期間中のCAGRは7.85%です。
VLSFO(超低硫黄燃料油)は、燃料中の硫黄分を0.5%以下に制限する国際海事機関(IMO)の規則に適合した船舶用燃料です。従来の高硫黄燃料油(HSFO)の代わりにVLSFOを使用することで、環境汚染、特に硫黄酸化物(SOx)の排出を削減することができます。船舶からの硫黄排出を削減するIMO2020年指令の一環として導入されました。また、VLSFOは通常、様々な製油所の流れをブレンドしたものであるため、粘度や組成は供給源によって異なります。
国際海事機関(IMO)によると、船舶用燃料の硫黄分含有量を0.5%に制限するIMO2020年規則を遵守するため、世界の大半の船舶が重油(HFO)から超低硫黄燃料油(VLSFO)に移行しています。
国際海上貿易の増加
世界の貿易量の90%近くを占める国際貿易の基盤は国際海運です。特に中国、インド、米国のような経済圏からの消費財、エネルギー資源、原料に対する需要の高まりにより、海上交通量とVLSFOのような海上燃料の需要が増加しています。さらに、eコマースや世界のサプライチェーンが加速度的に成長するにつれて、輸送効率の重要性が増しており、事業者はVLSFOのような経済的で合法的な燃料を使用するようになっています。
価格変動とサプライチェーンの中断
超低硫黄燃料油(VLSFO)の価格は、原油価格の変動、精製能力、地域の需要変動により非常に不安定です。VLSFOの生産は原油から硫黄分を除去する精製プロセスに依存しているため、精製所の操業停止、地政学的紛争、COVID-19パンデミックのような世界的危機はすべて、供給不足と価格高騰を引き起こす可能性があります。さらに、VLSFOの入手可能性に地域格差が生じると、特定の市場で価格が上昇する可能性があり、船舶運航者は燃料調達計画を定期的に変更する必要があります。
低硫黄燃料生産と製油所改修への投資の拡大
世界中の製油所は、IMO2020規制の施行以来、低硫黄船舶燃料の生産量を増やすため、脱硫装置と水素分解手順の近代化に多額の投資を行っています。海上部門の需要増に対応するため、シンガポール、ロッテルダム、ヒューストン、フジャイラなどの主要精製ハブは、VLSFOの貯蔵・販売能力を増強しています。さらに、非公開会社や国営石油会社は、燃料の安定性と効率を改善し、安定供給と高品質を保証する最先端の精製方法を研究しています。
増大する将来の排出規制と規制の不確実性
環境規制がさらに強化されれば、VLSFOを含む化石燃料ベースの船舶用燃料の使用が制限される可能性があります。IMOの新たな施策の一環として、船舶燃料に対する炭素税の可能性や、より厳しい炭素強度規制が議論されています。規制当局がバンカー燃料に炭素課税や追加的な排出削減目標を課せば、代替エネルギー源の魅力が増す可能性があり、VLSFOのコストは大幅に上昇します。さらに、排出量取引制度(ETS)は、欧州連合(EU)など一部の地域ですでに海運産業向けに実施されており、他の地域もこれに追随する可能性があります。
超低硫黄燃料油(VLSFO)市場は、海運活動の減少、国際貿易の混乱、原油価格の乱高下の結果、COVID-19の大流行によって大きな影響を受けた。特に石油タンカー、クルーズ船、コンテナ船などの産業では、船舶の閉鎖や景気後退の結果、世界の海運需要が急激に減少しました。このため、VLSFOを含むバンカー燃料の使用量は全体的に減少しました。2020年初頭の原油価格の暴落は、VLSFOとHSFOの価格差を縮小させ、スクラバー投資の魅力を低下させ、VLSFOの需要を一時的に安定させました。しかし、VLSFO市場における地域的な不足と価格変動は、物流の遅れ、サプライチェーンの制限、不規則な製油所操業によってもたらされました。
予測期間中、製油所セグメントが最大となる見込み
予測期間中、製油所セグメントが最大の市場シェアを占めると予想されます。製油所は、IMO2020規制に準拠した低硫黄バンカー燃料を生産するため、原油処理方法を調整し、脱硫設備を改善し、残渣アップグレード技術への投資を増やしています。収益性を維持しながらVLSFOの需要増に対応するためには、水素化分解、コークス化、脱硫能力を有する数多くの先進的製油所が有利です。さらに、柔軟な原油スレートを備えた製油所では、IMO規制に適合した燃料の安定供給を保証するために、ハイドロ処理技術を使用したり、低硫黄原料をブレンドしたりすることもできます。
MGO(船舶用ガスオイル)セグメントは予測期間中最も高いCAGRが見込まれる
予測期間中、MGO(船舶用ガスオイル)セグメントは、IMO2020年硫黄規制を遵守しなければならない船舶の代替燃料として広く使用されていることから、最も高い成長率を記録すると予測されます。IFO 180やIFO 380のような従来の残留燃料に比べ、MGOは硫黄含有量が大幅に低い蒸留燃料であるため、高価な排ガス浄化システムの設置を避けたい船舶運航者にとって望ましい選択肢となります。さらに、MGOは、燃焼効率の向上、メンテナンスコストの削減、粒子状物質の排出量の減少など、海事セグメントにおける環境規制の拡大に沿った運用上のメリットを記載しています。
予測期間中、アジア太平洋が最大の市場シェアを占めると予想されるが、その主要理由は、高い海上貿易量、広範な製油所インフラ、シンガポール、中国、韓国などの主要バンカーハブです。IMO2020適合燃料の安定供給を保証する評判の高い製油所と混合施設を擁し、世界最大のバンカー港であるシンガポールは、VLSFOの供給に不可欠です。中国も製油所のアップグレードや政府の優遇措置によってVLSFOの国内生産を増やし、輸入依存度を低下させており、主要な参入企業となっています。さらに、低硫黄海上燃料のニーズは、日本やインドのような経済大国で特に普及している堅調な海運・物流セクターによっても煽られています。
予測期間中、中東・アフリカが最も高いCAGRを示すと予想されます。サウジアラビア、アラブ首長国連邦、クウェートは、この地域で最大の原油生産国のひとつであり、IMO2020に適合した燃料を製造するため、製油所の近代化に多額の投資を行っています。さらに、フジャイラ(アラブ首長国連邦)、ソハール(オマーン)、ダーバン(南アフリカ)を中心にバンカーハブが急拡大しているため、VLSFOの利用可能性が高まっており、この地域は国際航路の重要な給油拠点となっています。M&AのVLSFO市場は、精製プロセスの近代化、燃料輸出の増加、国際排出基準の遵守を目指す政府の取り組みにより急成長しています。
Note: Tables for North America, Europe, APAC, South America, and Middle East & Africa Regions are also represented in the same manner as above.
According to Stratistics MRC, the Global Very Low Sulfur Fuel Oil (VLSFO) Market is accounted for $96.49 billion in 2025 and is expected to reach $163.78 billion by 2032 growing at a CAGR of 7.85% during the forecast period. VLSFO, or very low sulfur fuel oil, is a marine fuel that conforms to the International Maritime Organization's (IMO) rules that restrict the amount of sulfur in fuel to no more than 0.5%. In lieu of conventional high-sulfur fuel oil (HSFO), VLSFO helps reduce environmental pollution, especially sulfur oxide (SOx) emissions. It was introduced as part of the IMO 2020 mandate to reduce sulfur emissions from ships. Moreover, the viscosity and composition vary depending on the supplier because it is usually a blend of various refinery streams.
According to the International Maritime Organization (IMO), the majority of ships worldwide have transitioned from using heavy fuel oil (HFO) to very low sulfur fuel oil (VLSFO) to comply with the IMO 2020 regulation, which limits the sulfur content in marine fuels to 0.5%.
Increase in international maritime trade
The foundation of international trade, accounting for almost 90% of global trade volumes, is international shipping. Marine traffic and the demand for marine fuels like VLSFO have increased due to the growing demand for consumer goods, energy resources, and raw materials, especially from economies like China, India, and the United States. Additionally, as e-commerce and global supply chains grow at an accelerated rate, shipping efficiency has become increasingly important, pushing operators to use economical and legally compliant fuels like VLSFO.
Price fluctuations and interruptions in the supply chain
The price of Very Low Sulfur Fuel Oil (VLSFO) is highly volatile due to fluctuations in crude oil prices, refining capacity, and regional demand variations. Refinery shutdowns, geopolitical conflicts, and global crises like the COVID-19 pandemic can all cause supply shortages and price spikes because VLSFO production relies on refining processes that remove sulfur from crude oil. Furthermore, a regional disparity in VLSFO availability may result in higher prices in particular markets, requiring ship operators to regularly modify their fuel procurement plans.
Growing investments in low-sulfur fuel production and refinery upgrades
Refineries all over the world have been making significant investments in modernizing desulfurization units and hydro cracking procedures in order to increase the production of low-sulfur marine fuels since the implementation of IMO 2020 regulations. To accommodate the increasing demands of the maritime sector, major refining hubs like Singapore, Rotterdam, Houston, and Fujairah are increasing their VLSFO storage and distribution capacities. Moreover, private refiners and national oil companies are investigating cutting-edge refining methods to improve fuel stability and efficiency, guaranteeing a steady supply and higher quality.
Increasing future emission limits and regulatory uncertainty
The use of fossil-based marine fuels, including VLSFO, may be restricted if environmental regulations are tightened further, even though IMO 2020 regulations required a global sulfur cap of 0.5%. Potential carbon taxes on marine fuels and more stringent carbon intensity regulations are being discussed as part of new IMO policies. Alternative energy sources may become more appealing if regulatory agencies impose carbon levies or additional emission reduction targets on bunker fuels, which would raise the cost of VLSFO considerably. Additionally, Emissions Trading Systems (ETS) have already been implemented for the shipping industry in some regions, such as the European Union (EU), and other regions may follow suit.
The market for Very Low Sulfur Fuel Oil (VLSFO) was significantly impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic, mostly as a result of decreased maritime activity, disruptions in international trade, and volatile crude oil prices. The demand for shipping worldwide fell precipitously as a result of the lockdowns and economic downturns, especially in industries like oil tankers, cruise lines, and container shipping. This decreased the amount of bunker fuel used overall, including VLSFO. The early 2020 crude oil price collapse led to smaller price differences between VLSFO and HSFO, which reduced the appeal of scrubber investments and momentarily stabilized the demand for VLSFO. However, regional shortages and price volatility in the VLSFO market were brought on by logistical delays, supply chain limitations, and irregular refinery operations.
The Refinery segment is expected to be the largest during the forecast period
The Refinery segment is expected to account for the largest market share during the forecast period. Refineries have adjusted their crude processing methods, improved their desulfurization facilities, and increased their investments in residue upgrading technologies in order to produce low-sulfur bunker fuels in compliance with IMO 2020 regulations. In order to meet the growing demand for VLSFO while retaining profitability, numerous sophisticated refineries possessing hydro cracking, coking, and desulfurization capabilities are at an advantage. Moreover, refineries equipped with flexible crude slates can also use hydro processing techniques or blend low-sulfur feedstocks to guarantee a consistent supply of fuels that comply with IMO regulations.
The MGO (Marine Gas Oil) segment is expected to have the highest CAGR during the forecast period
Over the forecast period, the MGO (Marine Gas Oil) segment is predicted to witness the highest growth rate, driven by its extensive use as a substitute fuel for ships that must adhere to the IMO 2020 sulfur regulations. Compared to conventional residual fuels like IFO 180 and IFO 380, MGO is a distillate fuel with a substantially lower sulfur content, which makes it a desirable option for ship operators who want to avoid the expensive installation of exhaust gas cleaning systems. Furthermore, MGO provides operational benefits that are in line with the expanding environmental regulations in the maritime sector, such as improved combustion efficiency, lower maintenance costs, and decreased particulate emissions.
During the forecast period, the Asia Pacific region is expected to hold the largest market share, primarily due to its high maritime trade volume, extensive refinery infrastructure, and major bunker hubs such as Singapore, China, and South Korea. With reputable refineries and blending facilities guaranteeing a consistent supply of IMO 2020-compliant fuels, Singapore, the largest bunkering port in the world, is essential to the supply of VLSFO. China has become a major player as well, increasing its domestic production of VLSFO through refinery upgrades and government incentives, which has decreased its dependency on imports. Moreover, the need for low-sulfur marine fuels is also fueled by the robust shipping and logistics sectors, which are especially prevalent in large economies like Japan and India.
Over the forecast period, the Middle East & Africa region is anticipated to exhibit the highest CAGR. Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Kuwait, some of the biggest producers of crude oil in the region, are making significant investments in modernizing refineries to create fuels that comply with IMO 2020. Furthermore, as bunker hubs expand quickly, especially in Fujairah (UAE), Sohar (Oman), and Durban (South Africa), VLSFO availability is increasing, making the area a crucial fueling stop for international shipping routes. The M&A VLSFO market is growing rapidly due to government initiatives to modernize refining processes, increase fuel exports, and adhere to international emission standards.
Key players in the market
Some of the key players in Very Low Sulfur Fuel Oil (VLSFO) Market include Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd, Exxon Mobil, Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Limited (HPCL), Sinopec Inc, TotalEnergies, Valero Energy, Phillips 66, Kuwait Petroleum Corporation (KPC), Chevron, Indian Oil Corporation Ltd, Shell, Marathon Petroleum, Qatar Energy (QE), China Marine Bunker Co., Ltd. and Singapore Refining Company (SRC).
In February 2025, Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited (BPCL) signed a strategic term contract with TotalEnergies Trading Asia Pte Ltd for the supply of Middle Eastern crude oil to BPCL. The contract, which is valid for one year from April 2025 to March 2026, will ensure a "steady and competitive" supply of crude oil to BPCL's refineries.
In December 2024, Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Limited (HPCL) has signed an agreement with NICDC Logistics Data Services Ltd. (NLDS) to integrate its APIs with Unified Logistics Interface Platform (ULIP). This partnership is a significant step towards enhancing transparency, operational efficiency, and innovation in India's logistics sector.
In September 2024, Exxon Mobil Corporation and Mitsubishi Corporation have signed a Project Framework Agreement for Mitsubishi Corporation's participation in ExxonMobil's facility in Baytown, Texas which is expected to produce virtually carbon-free hydrogen with approximately 98% of carbon dioxide (CO2) removed and low-carbon ammonia.