Product Code: CURP19878003
Simba Information's PreK-12 Enrollment and Demographics, 2025-2026 provides a thorough analysis of shifting student demographics and enrollment patterns. The report details declining birth rates, expanding school choice initiatives, and mounting financial pressures on public schools. It explores how these factors are shaping the future of education and impacting school districts, policymakers, and education providers. With enrollment projected to decline by 3.7% through 2031, the report offers actionable insights on how stakeholders can adapt to a rapidly evolving market.
Table of Content
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Key Findings
METHODOLOGY
Data Sources and Collection
Data Analysis and Synthesis
Scope and Limitations
CHAPTER 1: ENROLLMENT TRENDS
- PUBLIC SCHOOL ENROLLMENTS STEADY IN 2023
- Figure 1-1. Enrollment in Public Elementary and Secondary Schools, Fall 1990 Through Fall 2023
- Trends by Region and State
- Table 1-1. Percent Change in Public School Enrollment by Region, 2013 - 2023
- Table 1-2. Change in Public Elementary and Secondary Schools Enrollment by State, 2013 to 2023, 2019 to 2023, and 2022 to 2023
- Grade-Level Trends
- Table 1-3. Enrollment in Public Elementary and Secondary Schools by Level and Grade, 2018 - 2031 (in thousands)
- Grade-Level Projections 2023-2031
- Table 1-4. Change in Enrollment in Public Elementary and Secondary Schools by Level and Grade, 2018 - 2031
- Table 1-5. Percentage of Students Enrolled in Public PreK-12 Schools by Grade Level Band, 2018, 2022, and 2031
- Future Projections
- Figure 1-2. Projected Enrollments, Public Elementary and Secondary Schools, 2024 - 2031 (in thousands)
- ENROLLMENTS AT ALTERNATIVE SCHOOLS GROW
- Table 1-6. Percentage of PreK-12 Students Attending Public, Private, and Public Charter Schools, Fall 2011 vs. Fall 2021
- Demographic Differences
- Table 1-7. Percentage of Public, Private, and Public Charter Schools by Race/Ethnicity, Fall 2021
- REASONS FOR THE TRENDS AWAY FROM PUBLIC SCHOOLS
- Declining Birth Rates and Immigration
- Quality of Public School Education
- School Choice
- PreK-12 Enrollment and Demographics 2024-2025
- March 2 ii 025 (C) Simba Information
- The Future
- NUMBER AND LOCATION OF SCHOOLS
- Figure 1-3. Number of Public and Elementary and Secondary Schools by School Type and Charter, 2023-2024 School Year
- Table 1-8. Number of Public Schools and Average Number of Students Enrolled by School Level, 2023-2024 School Year
- Table 1-9. Percentage of Public, Charter, and Private Schools by Type of Community, Fall 2021
CHAPTER 2: GENERAL POPULATION TRENDS
- Figure 2-1. Annual Percentage Change in US Population, July 1, 2000 to July 1, 2024
- Figure 2-2. US Annual Population Change, Natural Increase and International Migration, July 1, 2000, to July 1, 2024 (in millions)
- BIRTH AND FERTILITY RATES
- Reasons for the Declines
- IMMIGRATION
- UNDER-18 POPULATION TRENDS
- Table 2-1. Number of Children Ages 0-17 in the US by Age, 2019 - 2022 (in millions)
- Table 2-2. Number of Children Ages 0-17 in the US by Age, Projected, 2023 - 2029 (in millions)
- POPULATION TRENDS BY STATE
- Table 2-3. Population and Population Trends by State, 2024
- Table 2-4. Percent of Population 0-18 by State, 2023
CHAPTER 3: THE PUBLIC SCHOOL LANDSCAPE
- RACE AND ETHNICITY
- Table 3-1. Public School Enrollments by Race/Ethnicity, Selected Years, 2013 - 2023 (in thousands)
- Figure 3-1. Public School Enrollments by Race/Ethnicity, Selected Years, 2013 - 2023
- Table 3-2. Enrollment in Public Elementary and Secondary Schools by Level and Race/Ethnicity, 2023 (in thousands)
- IMMIGRATION
- State Trends
- Table 3-3. Share of Public School Students from Immigrant Households and Top-Sending Countries by State, Fall 2021
- Undocumented Immigration
- ENGLISH LEARNERS
- Table 3-4. English Learners (ELs) Enrolled in Public Elementary and Secondary Schools, Fall 2011 through Fall 2021
- Characteristics of English Learners
- Table 3-5. English Learners by Race/Ethnicity, Fall 2021
- POVERTY
- Table 3-6. Number and Percentage of Public School Students Receiving Free or Reduced-Price Lunch, 2019-2020 to 2022-2023
- PreK-12 Enrollment and Demographics 2024-2025
- March 2025 (C) Simba Information iii
- Title I
- Table 3-7. Number and Percentage of Students Participating in Title I Programs, 2020-2021 School Year
- Table 3-8. Number and Percentage of Students Participating in Title I Public Schoolwide or Targeted Assistance Programs by Student Characteristics, 2020 - 2021
- Table 3-9. Number of Public Elementary and Secondary Schools, Traditional and Charter, Eligible and Participating in Title I Programs, 2021-2022 School Year
- HOMELESSNESS
- Figure 3-2. Homeless Students in US Public Schools, 2020-2021 to 2022-2023
- Table 3-10. Percent of Homeless Students, by Race/Ethnicity, 2022-2023 School Year
- Table 3-11. Percent of Students Who Experienced Homelessness, by Subgroup, 2020-2021 through 2022-2023 School Years
- CHRONIC ABSENTEEISM
- Figure 3-3. Percentage of Schools with Significant Chronic Absenteeism by Level, 2017-2018 to 2021-2022
- Figure 3-4. Percentage of Students Exhibit Chronic Absenteeism by Student Populations, 2022-2023 School Year
- IDEA AND SPECIAL NEEDS
- Table 3-12. Children 3 to 21 Years Old Served Under IDEA, Part B, 2018-2019 through 2022-2023
- Table 3-13. Percentage of Children 3 to 21 Years Old Served Under IDEA Part B by Selected Disability, 2018-2019 through 2022-2023
- GRADUATION RATES
- Table 3-14. Number of High School Graduates, 2018-2019 Through 2022-2023
- Table 3-15. Number and Distribution of Public High School Graduates by Race and Ethnicity, 2022 - 2023
- Figure 3-5. National 4-Year Cohort Graduation Rate, 2021-2022 School Year
- EARLY CHILDHOOD LEARNING
- Figure 3-6. Percentage of 3- to 5-year-old Children Enrolled in Public or Private School, 2012 through 2022
- Table 3-16. Percentage of 3- to 5-Year-Old Children Enrolled in School by Race/Ethnicity: Public vs. Private, Fall 2022
- Figure 3-7. Percentage of 3- and 4-Year-Olds Enrolled in State-Funded Preschool, 2002 - 2023
- Table 3-17. Percent of Population Enrolled in Early Childhood Education by Type of Public Program, 2022-2023 School Year
CHAPTER 4: ALTERNATIVES TO TRADITIONAL PUBLIC SCHOOLS
- SCHOOL CHOICE DRIVES CHANGE
- Figure 4-1. Number of School Choice Programs on the Books by Year, 1869 - 2024
- Figure 4-2. Number of Students Participating in ESA, Tax-Credit ESA, Voucher, Tax-Credit Scholarship, and Refundable Tax Credit Programs, 1991 - 2025
- PRIVATE SCHOOLS
- Table 4-1. Private Elementary and Secondary Enrollment and Number of Schools by Level and Orientation, 2020-2021 School Year
- PreK-12 Enrollment and Demographics 2024-2025
- March 2 iv 025 (C) Simba Information
- Figure 4-3. Private Elementary and Secondary Enrollment by Orientation, 2020-2021 School Year
- Catholic Schools
- The Legal and Policy Debate Over Religious Charter Schools
- CHARTER SCHOOLS
- Table 4-2. Change in Enrollment, Charter versus Traditional District Public Schools, 2019-2020 to 2023-2024
- Table 4-3. Charter School Enrollment Growth and Share by State, 2023 - 2024
- Table 4-4. Public Charter vs. Non-Charter Enrollment Growth, One-Year and Five-Year, Black, White, and Hispanic Students, 2023 - 2024
- HOMESCHOOLING
- MICROSCHOOLING
- DUAL ENROLLMENT
- Table 4-5. Percentage of College Students Who Are Dual-Enrolled in High School by State, 2022-2023 School Year
- Figure 4-4. Growth of Dual Enrollment, 1999 - 2021
- CAREER AND TECHNICAL EDUCATION
- Table 4-6. Percentage of Public High School Graduates Earning CTE Credits by Race/Ethnicity, 2019
- Table 4-7. Percentage of Public High School Graduates Earning CTE Credits by Gender, 2019
- VIRTUAL SCHOOLING
- Table 4-8. Number of Virtual Schools by Grade Level, 2018-2019 to 2022-2023
- Connectivity in Schools
- Figure 4-5. Districts and Students Meeting 1 Mbps Per Student Goal, 2015 - 2023
CHAPTER 5: A LOOK AHEAD