大学教材の現状 (2023～2025年)

米国の学生の教材費は大幅に減少し、学生一人当たり年間平均285ドルにまで落ち込んでいます。一方で、短期資格取得を目指す学部生の増加や、高等教育機関の閉鎖、連邦政府や州政府によるオープン教育リソース (OER) 要件の利用増加といった動きも見られます。さらに、学生や教職員の間で人工知能 (AI) の利用が拡大しており、プライバシーや学生による不正利用への懸念も指摘されています。

当レポートでは、米国の大学向け教材 (印刷・デジタルの両形態の新規教材) の活用状況と今後の市場機会について分析し、セグメント別の市場規模の推移と予測、その背景事情、昨今の市場の主な動き (入学動向、遠隔教育の成長、政策と資金調達の動向、印刷教材からデジタル教材への移行、購読と包括的アクセス計画、技術動向、業界の企業合併・買収 (M&A) ほか) といった情報を取りまとめてお届けいたします。

目次

• イントロダクション
• 調査手法
• エグゼクティブサマリー

第1章：市場規模と入学者数

• 教育機関の種類と数
  • 公立 vs 私立
  • 営利私立機関の数が非営利学校の数を上回っている
  • 学部1年生が在籍する教育機関
  • 通信教育
  • 今後 (2024年)
  • 2023年
  • 営利機関の市場の変化
• 学生データに関する考察
  • 促進要因としての専門分野・専攻・就職先の増加

第2章：政策と資金調達

• イントロダクション
• 大学教育費用 (2022年～2023年)
• 大学教育費用 (2023年～2024年)
• 大学教育費用 (2024年～2027年)
• 高等教育に対する連邦政府の資金提供
  • HEERF基金 (2023年)
• 学生ローン
  • 学生ローン免除の影響
  • 監視の継続的な推進
  • 影響を受けるプログラムと大学
  • 米国教育省 (DOE) による新入生保護の導入
• 高等教育に対する国の支援
  • 国の資金提供
  • 学生のシェア
• SHEEO (State Higher Education Executive Officer)：2022年度
  • 将来展望
• 労働力の開発
• 実習プログラム
  • キャリア・技術・成人教育

第3章：教材

• イントロダクション
• 教材費の長期的減少の継続
• 教科書とコースウェアの費用の影響
  • 潜在的な解決策
• OER (オープン教育リソース)
  • 連邦政府と州政府は引き続きOERを推進
  • 州政府は引き続きOERを支援
  • OpenStaxの適用拡大：連邦政府資金の獲得
  • Course HeroとLumenが提携し、OERへのアクセスを拡張
  • OERの採用・作成・使用を奨励する教育機関が増加
• 大学教材の見通し
  • 出版社向け提言

第4章：業界の動向とイノベーション

• 高等教育に対する信頼低下
  • 米国の教育機関に関するGallup調査
  • 大学学位の価値の低下
  • 企業が大学の学位要件を撤廃
  • イスラエル・ハマス戦争に対するキャンパス抗議活動の影響
  • 流動的な教育
• 教材モデルの変更
  • サブスクリプションサービス
  • 包括的なアクセスと公平なアクセス
  • 包括的なアクセス
  • 公平なアクセス
  • 意義
• オンライン学習
  • 認識の変化
  • 成長市場
  • eSpelman
  • 大学の教室におけるAIの台頭が、業界にとって何を意味するか
  • スナップショット：現在の状況
  • 学生や教員はAIをどのように活用しているのか？
• 実際的な事項：ポリシーの設定
  • 教育出版社の義務

第5章：競合情勢

• 背景
• 買収、売却、資金調達
  • 2022年の動向
    • Pearsonがローカル用K-12教材ビジネスを売却
    • Chegg、教材事業から撤退
  • 2023年の動向
    • 2件のOPM売却
    • Barnes & NobleによるDSSの売却
  • 新たな資金調達
  • 注目すべき買収
  • 包括的なアクセスと公平なアクセス
  • 非従来型の学生の追求
  • Clarivate Incubator
• 主要企業
• PEARSON
• CENGAGE LEARNING
• MCGRAW HILL
• WILEY
• CHEGG
• BARNES & NOBLE EDUCATION
• 業績
• 各企業の業績：年初以来

Simba Information's State of College Course Materials 2023-2025 report reveals a significant decline in student spending on course materials, a drop to an average of $285 per year per student. Also highlighted in the report is a rise in undergraduates seeking short-term credentials, closures of higher education institutions, and increased use of Open Educational Resources (OER) requirements from federal and state governments. Additionally, the report notes a growing use of AI among students and faculty, accompanied by concerns about privacy and unauthorized use by students. The State of College Course Materials covers a range of topics that include enrollment trends, distance education growth, policy and funding developments, the shift from print to digital instructional materials, subscription and inclusive access plans, technology trends, and mergers and acquisitions in the industry. Simba provides both the size and context for market segments, encompassing new course materials in both digital and print formats.

Table of Content

INTRODUCTION

METHODOLOGY

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

CHAPTER 1: MARKET SIZE AND ENROLLMENT

INSTITUTION TYPES AND NUMBERS

Table 1.1. Number of U.S. Title IV Postsecondary Institutions, 2022-2023 vs. 2021-2022

Public vs. Private

For-Profit Private Institutions Outnumber Nonprofit Schools

Institutions with First-Year Undergraduates

Table 1.2. Degree-Granting Institutions with First-Year Undergraduates, 2022-2023 vs. 2020-2021 vs. 2000-2001

Distance Education

Forthcoming (2024)

2023

Shifting Market for For-Profit Institutions

Table 1.3. Simba Information Career College Enrollment Index, 2022

Figure 1.1. Interest in Short-term Credentials Increased in 2023

Figure 1.2. First-year Student Enrollment Fell at Four-year Colleges

Figure 1.3. Enrollment Changes by Credential Type

Table 1.4. Enrollment Changes by Award Level and Sector, Fall 2022 & Fall 2023

Figure 1.4. Freshman Enrollment Changes by Age

Figure 1.5. Freshman Enrollment Changes by Sector

Table 1.5. Enrollment Changes in Top Ten Majors by Credential Type, Fall 2022 & Fall 2023

THINKING ABOUT STUDENT DATA

Disciplines, Majors and Job Growth as Drivers

CHAPTER 2: POLICY & FUNDING

INTRODUCTION

COSTS OF ATTENDING COLLEGE IN 2022-2023

Table 2.1. Undergraduate Tuition and Fees, 2021-2022 vs. 2022-2023

COSTS OF ATTENDING COLLEGE IN 2023-2024

Table 2.2. Undergraduate Tuition and Fees, 2022-2023 vs. 2023-2024 (dollars)

COSTS OF ATTENDING COLLEGE 2024-2027

Table 2.3. Costs of Attending College Estimates, 2024-2027 (dollars)

FEDERAL FUNDING FOR HIGHER EDUCATION

Table 2.4. Selected Higher Education Programs in President Biden's Department of Education Budget Request, FY 2022-FY2024P (million dollars)

HEERF Funds 2023

STUDENT LOANS

Table 2.5. Average Cumulative Debt Levels in 2022 Dollars: Bachelor's Degree Recipients at Public and Private Nonprofit Four-Year Institutions, 2006-07 to 2021-22, Selected Years

Table 2.6. Distribution of Outstanding Federal Borrowers by Borrower Age, Second Quarter FY 2017, FY 2020, and FY 2023

Table 2.7. Distribution of Outstanding Federal Loan Dollars by Borrower Age, Second Quarter FY 2017, FY 2020, and FY 2023

IMPACT OF STUDENT LOAN FORGIVENESS

CONTINUED PUSH FOR OVERSIGHT

Programs and Colleges Impacted

DOE Introduces New Student Protections

STATE SUPPORT FOR HIGHER EDUCATION

State Funding

Table 2.8. Sources of State and Local Higher Education Funding by State, FY 2022

Student Share

Table 2.9. Net Tuition as a Percentage of Total Education Revenue by State (excluding net tuition revenue used for capital debt service), FY 1980-2022

SHEEO STATE HIGHER EDUCATION FINANCE: FY 2022

Looking Ahead

WORKFORCE DEVELOPMENT

Table 2.10. Federal Workforce Development Grants, 2023

APPRENTICESHIP PROGRAMS

Table 2.11. State Policies and Programs to Support Employer Led RAPs

Figure 2.1. Map of OA and SAA States

Career, Technical, and Adult Learning

CHAPTER 3: COURSE MATERIALS

INTRODUCTION

LONG-TERM DECLINE IN COURSE MATERIALS SPEND CONTINUES

Table 3.1. Average Cost of Books and Supplies for First-Year, Full-Time Undergraduates, 2021-2022 (dollars)

Figure 3.1. Average College Student Spending on Course Materials, 2007-2022 (dollars)

Figure 3.2. Average College Student Spending on Course Materials by Major, 2022-2023

THE IMPACT OF TEXTBOOK AND COURSEWARE COSTS

Potential Solutions

Figure 3.3. Most Common Free Materials Assigned by Faculty

OER

Federal and State Governments Continue to Push OER

Figure 3.4. Open Textbooks (OTP) Program Fiscal Year 2023 Summary of Funding

State Governments Continue to Support OER

OpenStax Expands Implementation, Gains Federal Funding

Course Hero, Lumen Pair to Expand Access to OER

More Institutions Encourage Adoption, Creation and Use of OER

Table 3.2. Putting OER to Work, 2022-2024

OUTLOOK FOR COLLEGE COURSE MATERIALS

Table 3.3 Sales by Segment of Key College Course Materials, 2022-2025P (million dollars)

Recommendations for Publishers

CHAPTER 4: INDUSTRY TRENDS AND INNOVATIONS

DECLINING CONFIDENCE IN HIGHER EDUCATION

Gallup Research on American Institutions

Figure 4-1. Gallup Poll on American Confidence in Higher Education

Eroding Value of a College Degree

Businesses Drop College Degree Requirements

Fallout from Campus Protests on Israel-Hamas War

Education in Flux

CHANGING COURSE MATERIALS MODELS

Subscription Services

Inclusive Access and Equitable Access

Inclusive Access

Equitable Access

Implications

ONLINE LEARNING

Changing Perceptions

Growing Market

eSpelman

What the Rise of AI in College Classrooms Means for the Industry

A Snapshot: Where Things Stand Now

How are Students and Faculty Using AI?

Figure 4-2. University Leader Perspective on AI

PRACTICAL MATTERS: SETTING POLICIES

The Educational Publisher's Imperative

CHAPTER 5: COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

BACKGROUND

ACQUISITIONS, DIVESTMENTS AND FUNDING

2022 Activity

Pearson Sells Local K-12 Courseware Businesses

Chegg Exits Course Materials Business

Table 5-1. Acquisitions, Divestments and Funding for Higher Education Competitors, 2022

2023 Activity

Two OPM Divestments

Barnes & Noble Divests DSS

New Funding

Notable Acquisitions

Inclusive Access and Equitable Access

The Pursuit of Non-Traditional Students

Clarivate Incubator

Table 5.2. Acquisitions, Divestments, and Funding for Higher Education Competitors, 2023

MAJOR COMPETITORS

Table 5.3. Performance of Higher Education Competitors: Total Corporate and Higher Education Segment (million dollars)

PEARSON

Pearson+

Corporate Strategy

Figure 5-1. Pearson Strategic Overview by Segment

Leadership Change

CENGAGE LEARNING

Reorganization

Higher Education Segment

Cengage Unlimited

Strategic Directions

Accredible Partnership

MCGRAW HILL

Higher Education

Strategic Directions

TikTok for Studying

McGraw Hill GO

WILEY

Divestment Plan

Learning Segment

Strategic Directions

CHEGG

Performance

Bracing for Impact

Strategic Directions

BARNES & NOBLE EDUCATION

DSS Spinoff

Business Segments

Retail

Wholesale

First Day Inclusive Access and Equitable Access

Strategic Directions

PERFORMANCE

Competitive Performance Year-to-Date

Table 5-4. 2023 Performance and Guidance for Higher Education Competitors