市場調査レポート

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1757087

紙幣のライフサイクル（～2030年）

The Lifecycle of Banknotes to 2030

出版日: 2025年08月01日
発行: Smithers
ページ情報: 英文 99 Pages
納期: 即日から翌営業日

価格

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概要
目次

概要

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主な事実

世界の紙幣印刷の市場規模は、2029年に171億米ドルに達すると予測され、2024年からCAGRで5.3%の成長が見込まれます。
2023年、米国で流通している紙幣は546億枚で、額面総額は2兆3,000億米ドルでした。

非接触型決済やデジタルウォレットの優位性が高まっているにもかかわらず、紙幣は経済のレジリエンス、金融包摂、文化的アイデンティティ、プライバシーにとって不可欠な存在であり続けています。2030年に向けて、紙幣のライフサイクルは、先進技術の統合、進化する公的ニーズ、セキュリティ、持続可能性、アクセシビリティの重視によって大きな影響を受けるとみられます。

当レポートでは、現在の紙幣のライフサイクルと、紙幣のデザイン、生産、流通に関わるステップをマッピングし、キャッシュサイクルの各段階を詳細に分析しています。また、紙幣産業内の変化と地政学的要因が今後5年間でこのライフサイクルに与える影響を取り上げています。

概要
イントロダクション
現金使用は世界的に減少している
現金は依然として堅調で安全である
環境の持続可能性とライフサイクルの最適化
セキュリティ上の脅威と偽造
AI：広大な可能性を解き放つ
関税時代
戦略的買収と産業変革

紙幣のデザイン：コンセプトから設計図まで

概要
紙幣のライフサイクルにおけるデザインの役割
紙幣のデザイン：永続的な進化
セキュリティの強化
文化的、社会的反映
現在のケーススタディ：新しいユーロ - 5年間の人気コンテスト
環境への配慮
2030年の紙幣のデザイン：今日の課題への対応
持続可能性
紙幣のデザイン：顧客を理解し学ぶ
AIとデザイン：補完的な役割

紙幣の基材とセキュリティ機能技術

概要
基材：紙/ポリマー/ハイブリッド
2030年の紙幣の基材
セキュリティ機能：明示的、機械可読
主なセキュリティ機能：明示的な光学技術
ケーススタディ：なぜ1sが重要か。3D効果の認識
機械可読セキュリティ機能
ニッチ産業で独自性を保つのは難しい：横断的な動向
紙幣の基材とセキュリティ機能：2030年までの課題
紙幣の基材とセキュリティ機能：2030年のライフサイクル
結論

2030年までの紙幣のライフサイクル：生産

概要
「紙幣は買えない」：印刷業者の信条
世界の紙幣生産
2030年までの紙幣印刷：革新的な技術
AI：ChatGPTを超えて
デジタル印刷の事例
オートメーションとスマートマニュファクチャリング
技術による持続可能性
技術とイノベーションによる戦略的変革

2030年までの紙幣のライフサイクル：キャッシュサイクルの変革

概要
キャッシュサイクル：永続的な価値の流れ
2030年のキャッシュサイクル
課題1：現金の使用を減らす
現金の使用：（誤った）正確な表現？？
買いだめと国外移転
課題2：運用コストの削減
課題3：より巧妙な偽造の脅威
シナリオ：現金循環と偽造危機
紙幣輸送：動きの合理化
セキュアロジスティクスネットワーク
集中型発行モデルと分散型発行モデル
紙幣の寿命の終わり：新たな始まりの推進
キャッシュサイクルの未来：アナリティクス
結論

2030年までの紙幣のライフサイクル：世界の見通し

概要
西欧
ユーロ圏
東欧
北米
中南米
アジア太平洋
オーストラリア
アフリカ

Key facts:

The global banknote printing market is expected to increase in value to $17.1 billion in 2029, a CAGR of 5.3% from 2024
In 2023, there were 54.6 billion US banknotes in circulation, with a combined face value of $2.3 trillion.

Despite the growing dominance of contactless payments and digital wallets, banknotes remain indispensable for economic resilience, financial inclusion, cultural identity, and privacy. Towards 2030, the banknote lifecycle will be greatly influenced by the integration of advanced technology, evolving public needs, and a strong emphasis on security, sustainability, and accessibility.

This report maps out the current lifecycle of a banknote, and the steps involved in the design, production and circulation of banknotes. It includes a detailed analysis of each stage in the cash cycle, and focuses on how changes within the banknote industry and geopolitical factors will influence this lifecycle over the next five years.

Key Questions:

What forces within the market are driving or hindering banknote use?
Which stages of lifecycle are affected by technological disruptions or developments?
How is the use of digital and physical currencies balanced geographically?
What is the influence of Central Bank Digital Currencies on the lifecycle of banknotes?

This report is essential to:

Organisations active in the printing and distribution of cash
Central banks, state printers and mints
Security print consultants and analysts

Executive summary

Introduction and methodology

Report scope
Report objective
Geographic coverage
Methodology
Definitions and abbreviations

Banknote industry: key drivers and trends

Overview
Introduction
Global usage of cash is declining
Cash remains resilient and secure
- Emergence of Central Bank Digital currencies (CBDCs)
Environmental sustainability and lifecycle optimization
Security threats and counterfeiting
Artificial intelligence: unlocking vast potential
- Phy-gital hybrids AKA "smart" banknotes
The tariff years
Strategic acquisitions and industry transformation

Banknote design: concepts to blueprints

Overview
Role of design in the lifecycle of banknotes
- Design and pre-production
- Production and printing
- Quality control and inspection
- Distribution and circulation
- End-of-lifecyle
Banknote design: perpetual evolution
Increased security
Cultural and social reflection
Current case study: the new Euro - a five-year popularity contest
- Public input
Environmental considerations
Banknote design in 2030: meeting today's challenges
- Designing for security
- Designing for digital coexistence and convergence
Sustainability
- Designing for durability
- End-of-life design and recycling
Banknote design: learning and knowing your client
AI and design: complementary roles
- Generative design and aesthetic innovation
- Accelerated design process
- Predictive counterfeit mitigation
- Behavioral analytics and human-centered design
- Lifecycle simulation and durability optimization
- The challenges

Banknote substrates and security feature technologies

Overview
Substrates: paper / polymer / hybrids
- Cotton-based substrates (17th century - current)
- Introduction of polymer substrates (1980s-2000s)
- Composite polymer-paper hybrids (2010s-present)
- Current substrate landscape (2020s)
Banknote substrates in 2030
- Expansion and Refinement of polymer substrates
- Rise of composite substrates
- Recycled materials, extended lifecycles
- Substrates designed for embedded digital features
- Substrate-level security features
- Real-time traceability and lifecycle monitoring
- Nanomaterial and smart material integration
Security features: overt & machine-readable
Primary security features: overt optical technologies
Case study: why 1s matters? The perception of 3D effects
- Perceiving the benefits of 3D Security features
Machine-readable security features
Tough to be unique in a niche industry: cross-cutting trends
- The coin-banknote boundary
- Integration at the substrate level
Banknote substrate and security features: challenges to 2030
- Technological obsolescence assists counterfeiters
- Machine-readable features and BEMS
- The durability of security
- Cost of innovation
- Integration complexity
- Public acceptance and usability
Banknote substrate and security features: the 2030 lifecycle
- A. Design phase
- B. Production phase
- C. Distribution and logistics
- D. Circulation and usage
- E. End-of-life management
Conclusion

Banknote lifecycle to 2030: production

Overview
"You cannot buy a banknote": a printwork's creed
- Banknotes are instruments of trust, not commodities
- Counterfeiting isn't just a crime - it's a national security threat
- High security printers must guarantee value transfer
- Central banks are custodians
- Printers create "error-free" value
Global banknote production
- Current status: 2020-25
- Future outlook: 2025-30
- Staying ahead of the counterfeiters
- Sustainable lifecycle
- The cash paradox
Banknote printing to 2030: innovative technologies
Artificial intelligence: beyond ChatGPT
- AI-designed banknote security printing patterns
- Simulation of substrate and ink interactions
- Intelligent quality control
- Predictive maintenance and workflow optimization
The case for digital printing
- Greater flexibility and customization
- Streamlined prototyping and development cycles
- Enhanced security potential
- Cost and efficiency benefits
- Challenges in adoption and Integration
Automation and smart manufacturing
- Cybersecurity essentials
Sustainability through technology
- Eco-friendly substrates
- Sustainable and secure inks
- Energy-efficient printing processes
Strategic transformation through technology and innovation

Banknote lifecycle in 2030: transforming the cash cycle

Overview
Cash cycle: the perpetual value flow
- Step 1: Central Bank issuance to commercial banks
- Step 2: distribution into the economy
- Step 3: recirculation and handling
- Step 4: destruction of unfit notes
- Step 5: reissue and replacement
The cash cycle in 2030
Challenge #1: decreasing cash usage
Cash usage: (Mis) accurate representations??
- The CIC/GDP ratio
- "Transactional cash" data
- Cash sharing measures
Hoarding and off-shoring
Challenge #2: reducing operational costs
- Cash access and the ATM landscape
- Growing ATM networks
- Energy-efficiency
- Data-driven optimization
  - Increased cash recycling points
- Banknote recirculation and fitness sorting automation
Challenge #3: smarter counterfeiting threats
Scenario : the cash cycle and a counterfeiting crisis
- Case #1: advanced economies
  - Surge in digital payment adoption
  - Increased government support for digital infrastructure
  - Greater scrutiny of anti-fraud capabilities in digital platforms
- Case #2: emerging market economies
  - Slower and more fragmented shift to digital payments
  - Economic disruption in the informal sector
  - Limited institutional capacity to respond
  - Opportunity for leapfrogging-if managed well
Banknote transportation: streamlining movement
Secure logistics networks
Centralized vs distributed issuance models
A banknote's end of life: fueling a new beginning
- Evolving practices
- Recycling and reuse - a circular economy?
The future of the cash cycle: analytics
- Optimizing currency distribution and inventory management
- Forecasting demand through AI and machine learning
- Enhancing ATM and Cash-in-transit efficiency
- Lifecycle management and banknote durability
- Policy development and access to cash
- Integrating physical and digital currency metrics
- Vendor oversight and ecosystem management
Conclusion

Banknote lifecycle in 2030: global outlooks

Overview
Western Europe
- Design and substrate
- Production and manufacturing
- Circulation and use
- Sorting, fitness, and reissuance
- End-of-life and sustainability
Eurozone
- Design and substrate
- Production and manufacturing
- Circulation and use
- Sorting, fitness, and reissuance
- End-of-life and sustainability
Eastern Europe
- Design and substrate
- Printing and production
- Circulation and public use
- Sorting and fitness
- End-of-life and recycling
North America
- Design and substrate
- Production and manufacturing
- Circulation and use
- Sorting, fitness, and reissuance
- End-of-life and sustainability
South & Central America
- Design and substrate
- Production and manufacturing
- Circulation and use
- Sorting, fitness, and reissuance
- End-of-life and sustainability
Asia-Pacific
- Design and substrate
- Production and manufacturing
- Circulation and use
- Sorting, fitness, and reissuance
- End-of-life and sustainability
Australia
- Design and substrate
- Production and manufacturing
- Circulation and use
- Sorting, fitness, and reissuance
- End-of-life and sustainability
Africa
- Design and substrate
- Production and manufacturing
- Circulation and use
- Sorting, fitness, and reissuance
- End-of-life and sustainability

Key Facts and Figures

IGNIS ExNihilo concept note from Bundesdruckerei, front and back surfaces
The new Euro, banknote approval process
Impacts of key trends/drivers on the banknote lifecycle
Banknotes substrates investigated by key features
Data sources for cash analytics across the cash cycle