米国における長距離トラックの電化

業界の専門家は、長距離トラックは購入コストが高く、充電インフラが整っていないため、最後に電化される自動車分野のひとつになると予想しています。2023年には、米国でのセミトラックの販売台数12万5,000台のうち、EVはわずか500台に過ぎませんでした。今後10年間は、カリフォルニア州の先進クリーントラック規制のような州レベルのゼロ・エミッション車販売義務化が、電動セミトラック販売の主な促進要因になると思われます。2035年以降は、バッテリーのコスト削減と充電インフラの整備が販売の促進要因になる見通しです。

経路充電のための電力供給という課題は、路上充電ポートの数とその定格容量に関する不確実性が高いことを意味します。あるシナリオでは、トラックステーションにはメガワット級の超高速充電設備しかなく、充電にはディーゼルタンクへの給油と同程度の時間がかかります。もう一つのシナリオでは、走行中のトラック用のメガワット級充電器と、長時間駐車するトラック用の低速充電器を組み合わせることになります。長距離電化を展開するには、この課題に取り組むだけでなく、電動セミトラックに必要なトラックステーションの数を決定する必要があります。

当レポートでは、米国の長距離トラック輸送市場と今後10年間の電化の可能性を分析しています。米国における2024年から2033年までの長距離トラックの配備・販売予測をパワートレイン別・地域別に、また、同時期の電化された長距離トラック運行をサポートするために必要な充電インフラとエネルギーの予測を地域別・ユースケース別に示しています。

目次

第1章 エグゼクティブサマリー

• 長距離充電インフラ
• 長距離電化の影響

第2章 市場の問題

• 促進要因
  • 政策上の義務
  • コスト削減
• 阻害要因
  • 購入価格
  • インフラ
  • 生産能力の限界
  • 車両重量

第3章 業界のバリューチェーン

• 競合情勢
  • 水素燃料電池トラック
  • 企業合併・買収 (M&A) 活動
  • ビジネスモデルの進化

第4章 市場予測

• BEVの導入
• 個人所有トラック
  • 個人所有の長距離トラックの走行台数
  • 個人所有の長距離トラックの販売台数
• フリート所有トラック
  • フリート所有の長距離トラックの走行台数
  • フリート所有の長距離トラックの販売台数
• 長距離トラック充電向けエネルギー使用量
• 長距離トラック向け充電ポートの導入情況

第5章 結論・提言

• 3つの大きなポイント
• 推奨事項
  • フリートマネージャー
  • OEM
  • トラックステーションのオペレーター
  • ユーティリティ
  • 政府機関

第6章 頭字語と略語一覧

第7章 目次

第8章 図表

第9章 調査範囲、情報源・調査手法、注釈

List of Tables

• Total Long-Haul Truck Sales by Region, US: 2024-2033
• Total Long-Haul Truck Sales by Powertrain, US: 2024-2033
• Total Long-Haul Trucks in Service by Region, US: 2024-2033
• Total Long-Haul Trucks in Service by Powertrain, US: 2024-2033
• Individually Owned Long-Haul Trucks in Service by Region, US: 2024-2033
• Individually Owned Long-Haul Trucks in Service by Powertrain, US: 2024-2033
• Individually Owned Long-Haul Trucks in Service by Powertrain, US Midwest: 2024-2033
• Individually Owned Long-Haul Trucks in Service by Powertrain, US Northeast: 2024-2033
• Individually Owned Long-Haul Trucks in Service by Powertrain, US Southeast: 2024-2033
• Individually Owned Long-Haul Trucks in Service by Powertrain, US Southwest: 2024-2033
• Individually Owned Long-Haul Trucks in Service by Powertrain, US West: 2024-2033
• Individually Owned Long-Haul Truck Sales by Region, US: 2024-2033
• Individually Owned Long-Haul Truck Sales by Powertrain, US: 2024-2033
• Individually Owned Long-Haul Truck Sales by Powertrain, US Midwest: 2024-2033
• Individually Owned Long-Haul Truck Sales by Powertrain, US Northeast: 2024-2033
• Individually Owned Long-Haul Truck Sales by Powertrain, US Southeast: 2024-2033
• Individually Owned Long-Haul Truck Sales by Powertrain, US Southwest: 2024-2033
• Individually Owned Long-Haul Truck Sales by Powertrain, US West: 2024-2033
• Fleet-Owned Long-Haul Trucks in Service by Region, US: 2024-2033
• Fleet-Owned Long-Haul Trucks in Service by Powertrain, US: 2024-2033
• Fleet-Owned Long-Haul Trucks in Service by Powertrain, US Midwest: 2024-2033
• Fleet-Owned Long-Haul Trucks in Service by Powertrain, US Northeast: 2024-2033
• Fleet-Owned Long-Haul Trucks in Service by Powertrain, US Southeast: 2024-2033
• Fleet-Owned Long-Haul Trucks in Service by Powertrain, US Southwest: 2024-2033
• Fleet-Owned Long-Haul Trucks in Service by Powertrain, US West: 2024-2033
• Fleet-Owned Long-Haul Truck Sales by Region, US: 2024-2033
• Fleet-Owned Long-Haul Truck Sales by Powertrain, US: 2024-2033
• Fleet-Owned Long-Haul Truck Sales by Powertrain, US Midwest: 2024-2033
• Fleet-Owned Long-Haul Truck Sales by Powertrain, US Northeast: 2024-2033
• Fleet-Owned Long-Haul Truck Sales by Powertrain, US Southeast: 2024-2033
• Fleet-Owned Long-Haul Truck Sales by Powertrain, US Southwest: 2024-2033
• Fleet-Owned Long-Haul Truck Sales by Powertrain, US West: 2024-2033
• Energy Use for Long-Haul Truck Charging by Region, US: 2024-2033
• Energy Use for Long-Haul Truck Charging by Use Case, US: 2024-2033
• Energy Use for Long-Haul Truck Charging by Use Case, US Midwest: 2024-2033
• Energy Use for Long-Haul Truck Charging by Use Case, US Northeast: 2024-2033
• Energy Use for Long-Haul Truck Charging by Use Case, US Southeast: 2024-2033
• Energy Use for Long-Haul Truck Charging by Use Case, US Southwest: 2024-2033
• Energy Use for Long-Haul Truck Charging by Use Case, US West: 2024-2033
• Charging Port Deployment for Long-Haul Trucks by Region, US: 2024-2033
• Charging Port Deployment for Long-Haul Trucks by Use Case, US: 2024-2033
• Charging Port Deployment for Long-Haul Trucks by Use Case, US Midwest: 2024-2033
• Charging Port Deployment for Long-Haul Trucks by Use Case, US Northeast: 2024-2033
• Charging Port Deployment for Long-Haul Trucks by Use Case, US Southeast: 2024-2033
• Charging Port Deployment for Long-Haul Trucks by Use Case, US Southwest: 2024-2033
• Charging Port Deployment for Long-Haul Trucks by Use Case, US West: 2024-2033

Electric Semitrucks Registered in 2023, US

Companies Registering Semitrucks in 2023, US

List of Figures

• Energy Use for Long-Haul Truck Charging by Region, US: 2024-2033
• Total Long-Haul Truck Sales by Powertrain, US: 2024-2033
• Total Long-Haul Trucks in Service by Powertrain, US: 2024-2033
• Individually Owned Long-Haul Trucks in Service by Region, US: 2024-2033
• Individually Owned Long-Haul Trucks in Service by Powertrain, US: 2024-2033
• Individually Owned Long-Haul Truck Sales by Region, US: 2024-2033
• Individually Owned Long-Haul Truck Sales by Powertrain, US: 2024-2033
• Fleet-Owned Long-Haul Trucks in Service by Region, US: 2024-2033
• Fleet-Owned Long-Haul Trucks in Service by Powertrain, US: 2024-2033
• Fleet-Owned Long-Haul Truck Sales by Region, US: 2024-2033
• Fleet-Owned Long-Haul Truck Sales by Powertrain, US: 2024-2033
• Energy Use for Long-Haul Truck Charging by Use Case, US: 2024-2033
• Charging Port Deployment for Long-Haul Trucks by Region, US: 2024-2033
• Charging Port Deployment for Long-Haul Trucks by Use Case, US: 2024-2033

States with Advanced Clean Trucks Policies

Corridor Electrification Initiatives

Industry experts expect long-haul trucks to be among the last automotive sectors to electrify due to their high purchase cost and the lack of available charging infrastructure. In 2023, only 500 semitruck sales out of 125,000 in the US were EVs. Over the next 10 years, the primary driver for electric semi sales will be state-level zero emissions vehicle sales mandates such as California's Advanced Clean Trucks regulation. After 2035, sales are likely to be driven by reductions in battery costs and a more established charging infrastructure.

The challenge of providing power for en route charging means a high level of uncertainty around the number of corridor ports and their rated capacity. Under one scenario, truck stops would only have ultrafast megawatt charging, and charging would take a similar amount of time as refueling a diesel tank. Another scenario would entail a combination of megawatt chargers for trucks continuing on their way and slower chargers for trucks parking for longer periods. Rolling out long-haul electrification will require addressing this challenge as well as determining the number of truck stops necessary for electric semis.

This Guidehouse Insights report analyzes the US long-haul trucking market and its potential for electrification over the next decade. It provides deployment and sales forecasts for long-haul trucks in the US from 2024-2033, broken down by powertrain and region, and forecasts for the charging infrastructure and energy needed to support electrified long-haul trucking operations for the same time period, broken down by region and use case.

Table of Contents

1. Executive Summary

• 1.1 Long-Haul Charging Infrastructure
• 1.2 Long-Haul Electrification Impacts

2. Market Issues

• 2.1 Drivers
  • 2.1.1 Policy Mandates
    • 2.1.1.1 Advanced Clean Trucks
    • 2.1.1.2 Advanced Clean Fleets
  • 2.1.2 Cost Reductions
• 2.2 Barriers
  • 2.2.1 Purchase Price
  • 2.2.2 Infrastructure
    • 2.2.2.1 Market Manipulation
  • 2.2.3 Limited Production Capacity
  • 2.2.4 Vehicle Weight

3. Industry Value Chain

• 3.1 Competitive Landscape
  • 3.1.1 Hydrogen Fuel Cell Trucks
  • 3.1.2 M&A Activities
  • 3.1.3 Business Model Evolution

4. Market Forecasts

• 4.1 BEV Adoption
• 4.2 Individually Owned Trucks
  • 4.2.1 Individually Owned Long-Haul Trucks in Service
  • 4.2.2 Individually Owned Long-Haul Truck Sales
• 4.3 Fleet-Owned Trucks
  • 4.3.1 Fleet-Owned Long-Haul Trucks in Service
  • 4.3.2 Fleet-Owned Long-Haul Truck Sales
• 4.4 Energy Use for Long-Haul Truck Charging
• 4.5 Charging Port Deployment for Long-Haul Trucks

5. Conclusions and Recommendations

• 5.1 Three Big Takeaways
• 5.2 Recommendations
  • 5.2.1 Fleet Managers
  • 5.2.2 OEMs
  • 5.2.3 Truck Stop Operators
  • 5.2.4 Utilities
  • 5.2.5 Government Agencies

6. Acronym and Abbreviation List

7. Table of Contents

8. Table of Charts and Figures

9. Scope of Study, Sources and Methodology, Notes