結晶・薄膜太陽電池の世界市場の分析

イントロダクション

太陽光発電市場は持続可能なエネルギーソリューションへの国際的移行の最前線にあり、結晶太陽電池と薄膜太陽電池が、この変革において極めて重要な役割を果たしています。

当レポートでは、世界の結晶・薄膜太陽電池の市場について分析し、各セグメントの技術進歩の動きや市場動向、戦略的課題などを調査しております。また、太陽電池技術の成長・採用の促進要因や、今後の投資動向の見通し、直面している戦略的課題などを考察しております。

結晶・薄膜太陽電池技術の動向

太陽電池市場は、急速な技術革新と、結晶・薄膜太陽電池の活用領域の幅広さという特徴があります。結晶シリコン (c-Si) 太陽電池は、単結晶と多結晶の両方を含み、その効率の高さと実証済みの性能により市場を独占しています。この分野の重要な動向のひとつは、製造技術と材料の進歩によって変換効率が継続的に向上していることです。PERC (Passivated Emitter and Rear Cell) や両面受光型モジュールなどの技術は、結晶太陽電池の効率とエネルギー収量を向上させ、住宅用と商業用の両方にとってより魅力的なものにしています。

これと並行して、薄膜太陽電池の市場は、特に柔軟性・軽量性・低コストが重要となる用途で、その勢いを増しています。CdTe (テルル化カドミウム)、アモルファスシリコン (a-Si)、CIGS (セレン化銅インジウム・ガリウム) などの薄膜技術は、生産プロセスでの材料・エネルギー使用量を抑えつつ、競争力のある効率レベルを達成するために開発されています。薄膜分野では、その効率性の高さや様々な基板への適応性から、CIGS技術の利用が増加していることが顕著な動向として挙げられており、またBIPV (建材一体型太陽光発電) やポータブル・ソーラー・ソリューションへの活用が拡大しています。

さらに、太陽電池市場では持続可能性と循環型経済が重視されるようになっています。結晶・薄膜太陽電池メーカーは、ソーラーパネルの環境への影響を減らすため、環境に優しい素材やリサイクル方法を模索しています。この動向は、より厳格な規制の枠組みや、消費者や企業による環境に優しいエネルギーソリューションへの需要の高まりに支えられています。

目次

第1章 イントロダクション

第2章 太陽電池技術

• イントロダクション
• 開発の世代
  • 第一世代
  • 第二世代
  • 第三世代
• 沿革
• 動作原理
  • 概略
  • 電荷キャリアの光生成
  • 電荷キャリア分離
  • pn接合
  • 外部負荷への接続
  • 太陽電池の等価回路
• 太陽電池の効率要因
  • 最大出力点
  • エネルギー変換効率
  • 曲線因子 (FF)
  • 量子効率
  • エネルギー変換効率の比較
• 光吸収材料
  • バルク
  • 薄膜
  • ナノ結晶太陽電池
• 集光型太陽光発電 (CPV)
  • 概要
  • 商用リフレクター
• 材料・デバイスに関する研究の概要
  • シリコン加工
  • 薄膜プロセス
  • ポリマー加工
  • ナノ粒子処理
  • 透明導電体
  • ペロブスカイト太陽電池
  • PERC (Passivated Emitter And Rear Cell)

第3章 太陽電池の製造

• イントロダクション
• 太陽電池の製法
  • シリコン太陽電池
  • エッチングとテクスチャリング
  • 拡散とエッジ分離
  • 反射防止コーティング
  • メタライゼーション (金属化)

第4章 薄膜技術

• イントロダクション
• シリコン積層技術
  • アモルファスシリコン (a-Si) 積層
  • 微結晶シリコン積層
• 化合物半導体積層技術
  • イントロダクション
  • CdTe (テルル化カドミウム)
  • CIGS (銅インジウムガリウムセレン)
  • GaAs (ガリウムヒ素)
  • ペロブスカイト

第5章 太陽電池市場

• イントロダクション
• 主な成長要因
  • 政府のインセンティブ
  • 低コストの太陽光発電
  • 十分なサービスを受けていない層に広がる大きな市場
• 太陽光発電産業が直面する課題
• 太陽光発電システムのコスト
• 太陽光発電システムの運用指標
• 太陽光発電システムの種類
  • グリッド接続分野
  • オフグリッド分野
  • 市場動向
• 市場分析
  • 太陽電池市場
  • ポリシリコン太陽電池市場
  • 薄膜太陽電池市場
  • 薄膜太陽電池装置市場
  • 基質
  • 製造コスト
• ディスラプティブな技術

List of Figures

• 2.1. Light Absorption Through Layers In A Multijunction Cell
• 2.2. Triple Junction a-Si/a-SiGe/a-SiGe Cell Structure
• 2.3. A Two-Junction Amorphous-Silicon Solar Cell
• 2.4. Solar Cell Technology Roadmap
• 2.5. Best Research-Cell Efficiencies
• 2.6. Dye Sensitized Solar Cell Schematic
• 2.7. Bulk Heterojunction Solar Cell
• 2.8. Schematic Of Sliver Cell
• 3.1. Diagram Of Solar Cell
• 3.2. Cross Section Of A Solar Cell Under Illumination 3.
• 3.3. Conventional vs PERC Processing
• 3.4. Polysilicon Manufacturing And Supply Chain
• 4.1. Sharp's Triple-Junction Solar Cell
• 4.2. Factory Flow For 20 MW/Year CGS Facility
• 4.3. Schematic Of CdTe And CIGS Device Structures
• 4.4. CdTe Thin Film Deposition By VTD
• 4.5. CdTe Thin Film Deposition By Close Space Sublimation (CSS) Schematic
• 4.6. CdTe Thin Film Deposition By VTD2
• 4.7. CIGS Deposition System By Evaporation
• 4.8. Cross-Sectional Schematic Diagram Of The InGaP/InGaAs/Ge ATJ Cell
• 4.9. Cross-Sectional Schematic Diagram Of a Perovskite Cell
• 5.1. Cost Projections of Solar Panels
• 5.2. Evolution Of Global Annual Installations
• 5.3. Solar Vendor Market Shares-2000
• 5.4. Solar Vendor Market Shares-2001
• 5.5. Solar Vendor Market Shares-2002
• 5.6. Solar Vendor Market Shares-2003
• 5.7. Solar Vendor Market Shares-2004
• 5.8. Solar Vendor Market Shares-2005
• 5.9. Solar Vendor Market Shares-2006
• 5.10. Solar Vendor Market Shares-2007
• 5.11. Solar Vendor Market Shares-2008
• 5.12. Solar Vendor Market Shares-2009
• 5.13. Solar Vendor Market Shares-2010
• 5.14. Solar Vendor Market Shares-2011
• 5.15. Solar Vendor Market Shares-2012
• 5.16. Solar Vendor Market Shares-2013
• 5.17. Solar Vendor Market Shares-2014
• 5.18. Solar Vendor Market Shares-2015
• 5.19. Solar Vendor Market Shares-2016
• 5.20. Solar Cell Production by Region-2016
• 5.21. Solar Cell Forecast-2010-2020
• 5.22. Solar Cell Production By Type
• 5.23. Thin Film Solar Cell Production By Type-2010-2020
• 5.24. Polysilicon Production And Consumption (MT)
• 5.25. Polysilicon Sales by Region
• 5.26. China Polysilicon Imports
• 5.27. Kerfless Wafering
• 5.28. Best Research-Cell Efficiencies
• 5.29. Schematic Diagrams Of Thin-Film CdTe, CIGS, and a-Si Thin Film PV Devices
• 5.30. Thin Film Solar Cell Power As A Percentage Of Total Solar Power-2005-2020
• 5.31. Thin Film Solar Cell Power As A Percentage Of Total Solar Power-2003-2020
• 5.32. Schematic Thin-Film Roll-To-Roll Equipment

List of Tables

• 3.1. Polysilicon Capacity Forecast
• 4.1. Thin Film CIGS Solar Cells Efficiencies
• 4.2. Highest Efficiencies PV Modules
• 5.1. Top 10 Solar Manufacturers By Shipments-2015-2016
• 5.3. Market Share Of Solar Cells By Technology-2008-2020
• 5.4. Polysilicon Production Capacities By Company-2010-2017
• 5.5. Polysilicon Supply/Demand Forecast-2013-2020
• 5.6. Wafering Technology Forecast
• 5.7. Wire Saw Companies
• 5.8. Saw Wire and Diamond Wire Companies
• 5.9. CdTe Thin Film Solar Cell Producers
• 5.10. CIGS Thin Film Solar Cell Producers
• 5.11. 3G Thin Film Solar Cell Producers
• 5.12. CIGS Manufacturers and Deposition Methods
• 5.13. Cost Comparison Of Thin Film Technologies
• 5.14. Number Of Solar Equipment And Materials Companies-Chinese, U.S., Other
• 5.15. Top Non-Chinese Equipment Supplier Revenues

Introduction

The solar energy market is at the forefront of the global shift towards sustainable energy solutions, with crystalline and thin film solar cells playing pivotal roles in this transformation. Our report, "Analysis of the Solar Markets for Crystalline and Thin Film Solar Cells," provides an exhaustive examination of these two key segments, exploring their technological advancements, market trends, and strategic challenges. This comprehensive analysis is designed for industry professionals, offering essential insights into the factors driving the growth and adoption of solar technologies, and guiding strategic decisions for future investments and development.

Trends in Crystalline and Thin Film Solar Cell Technology

The solar market is characterized by rapid technological innovation and diverse applications of crystalline and thin film solar cells. Crystalline silicon (c-Si) solar cells, which include both monocrystalline and polycrystalline types, dominate the market due to their high efficiency and proven performance. One significant trend in this segment is the continuous improvement in conversion efficiencies, driven by advancements in manufacturing techniques and materials. Technologies such as passivated emitter rear cell (PERC) and bifacial modules are enhancing the efficiency and energy yield of crystalline solar cells, making them more attractive for both residential and commercial installations.

In parallel, the thin film solar cell market is gaining momentum, especially in applications where flexibility, lightweight, and lower costs are critical. Thin film technologies, including cadmium telluride (CdTe), amorphous silicon (a-Si), and copper indium gallium selenide (CIGS), are being developed to offer competitive efficiency levels while utilizing less material and energy in the production process. A notable trend in the thin film sector is the increasing use of CIGS technology due to its higher efficiency and adaptability to various substrates, which is expanding its applications in building-integrated photovoltaics (BIPV) and portable solar solutions.

Moreover, the solar market is witnessing a growing emphasis on sustainability and the circular economy. Both crystalline and thin film solar cell manufacturers are exploring eco-friendly materials and recycling methods to reduce the environmental impact of solar panels. This trend is supported by stricter regulatory frameworks and an increasing demand for greener energy solutions from consumers and businesses alike.

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Table of Contents

Chapter 1. Introduction

Chapter 2. Solar Cell Technology

• 2.1. Introduction
• 2.2. Generations of development
  • 2.2.1. First Generation
  • 2.2.2. Second Generation
  • 2.2.3. Third Generation
• 2.3. History
• 2.4. Theory of Operation
  • 2.4.1. Simple explanation
  • 2.4.2. Photogeneration of charge carriers
  • 2.4.3. Charge carrier separation
  • 2.4.4. The p-n junction
  • 2.4.5. Connection to an external load
  • 2.4.6. Equivalent circuit of a solar cell
• 2.5. Solar cell efficiency factors
  • 2.5.1. Maximum-power point
  • 2.5.2. Energy conversion efficiency
  • 2.5.3. Fill factor
  • 2.5.4. Quantum efficiency
  • 2.5.5. Comparison of energy conversion efficiencies
    • 2.5.5.1. Peak watt (or Watt peak)
    • 2.5.5.2. Solar cells and energy payback
• 2.6. Light-absorbing materials
  • 2.6.1. Bulk
    • 2.6.1.1. Silicon
  • 2.6.2. Thin films
    • 2.6.2.1. CdTe
    • 2.6.2.2. CIGS
    • 2.6.2.3. CIS
    • 2.6.2.4. Gallium arsenide (GaAs) multijunction
    • 2.6.2.5. Light absorbing dyes
    • 2.6.2.6. Organic/polymer solar cells
    • 2.6.2.7. Silicon Thin Films
  • 2.6.3. Nanocrystalline solar cells
• 2.7. Concentrating photovoltaics (CPV)
  • 2.7.1. Introduction
  • 2.7.2. Commercial reflectors
• 2.8. Overview of research on materials and devices
  • 2.8.1. Silicon processing
  • 2.8.2. Thin-film processing
  • 2.8.3. Polymer processing
  • 2.8.4. Nanoparticle processing
  • 2.8.5. Transparent conductors
  • 2.8.6. Perovskite Solar Cells
  • 2.8.7. PERC (Passivated Emitter And Rear Cell)

Chapter 3. Solar Cell Manufacturing

• 3.1. Introduction
• 3.2. How Solar Cells Are Made
  • 3.2.1. Silicon Solar Cell
  • 3.2.2. Etching And Texturing
  • 3.2.3. Diffusion And Edge Isolation
  • 3.2.4. Anti-Reflection Coating
  • 3.2.5. Metallization

Chapter 4. Thin Film Technology

• 4.1. Introduction
• 4.2. Silicon Deposition Technologies
  • 4.2.1. Amorphous Silicon Deposition
  • 4.2.2. Microcrystalline Silicon Deposition
• 4.3. Compound Semiconductor Deposition Technologies
  • 4.3.1. Introduction
  • 4.3.2. CdTe-Cadmium Telluride
  • 4.3.3. CIGS-Copper Indium Gallium Selenide
  • 4.3.4. GaAs-Gallium Arsenide
  • 4.3.5. Perovskite

Chapter 5. Solar Markets

• 5.1. Introduction
• 5.2. Key Growth Drivers
  • 5.2.1. Government Incentives
  • 5.2.2. Low Cost Solar
  • 5.2.3. Large Market Among Underserved Populations
• 5.3. Challenges Facing The Solar Power Industry
• 5.4. Cost Of A Photovoltaic System
• 5.5. Operating Metrics Of A Photovoltaic System
• 5.6. Types Of PV System
  • 5.6.1. Grid Connected Sector
  • 5.6.2. Off-Grid Sector
  • 5.6.3. Market Development
• 5.7. Market Analysis
  • 5.7.1. Solar Cell Market
  • 5.7.2. Polysilicon Solar Cell Market
    • 5.7.2.1. Wire Saw Wafering Technology
    • 5.7.2.2. Kerfless Wafering
  • 5.7.3. Thin Film Solar Cell Market
    • 5.7.3.1. Driving Forces
    • 5.7.3.2. Competing Technologies
    • 5.7.3.3. Third-Generation Technologies
  • 5.7.4. Thin Film Solar Cell Equipment Market
  • 5.7.5. Substrates
  • 5.7.6. Manufacturing Costs
• 5.8. Disruptive Technologies