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1型糖尿病（T1D）：7市場の医薬品の予測と市場の分析

Type 1 Diabetes: Seven-Market Drug Forecast and Market Analysis

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英文 144 Pages
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1型糖尿病（T1D）：7市場の医薬品の予測と市場の分析
出版日: 2024年12月27日
発行: GlobalData
ページ情報: 英文 144 Pages
納期: 即納可能 即納可能とは
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  • 目次
概要

主要7市場全体のT1D治療薬の市場規模は、2023年に約28億3,000万米ドルと推定されました。2033年までにT1D市場はCAGRで13.3%の高成長を示し、予測期間末には99億1,000万米ドルに達する見込みです。

予測期間におけるT1D市場成長の主な促進要因は以下の通りです。

  • インスリンポンプ使用の増加に伴う速効型インスリンの処方の増加
  • 経口剤と注射剤の上市、特に免疫調節療法
  • 世界のT1Dの有病率の増加

予測期間にT1D市場の成長を抑制する主な障壁は以下の通りです。

  • 特定のインスリン製剤と免疫調節薬の高い価格
  • バイオシミラーやジェネリックのさらなる浸食を可能にする特許の失効
  • 疾患修飾治療薬を開発する臨床試験の高い失敗率

当レポートでは、1型糖尿病（T1D）の主要7市場（米国、欧州5ヶ国、日本）について調査し、疾患の概要、市場の収益と予測、パイプラインの分析、現在と将来の競合の分析などを提供しています。

目次

第1章 1型糖尿病：エグゼクティブサマリー

  • 1型糖尿病治療薬の市場規模は、2033年までに99億1,000万米ドルに達します。
  • 1型糖尿病のマーケットリーダーは、インスリンフランチャイズをバイオシミラーの脅威から守るために多様な戦略を採用している一方、新興企業は疾患修飾のイノベーションに注力しています。
  • 根強いアンメットニーズが現在のT1D治療と新たなT1D治療のギャップを明示しています。
  • 1型糖尿病の管理におけるポンプ、CGM、超速効型インスリンの相乗効果
  • 医師の考え

第2章 イントロダクション

第3章 疾患の概要

  • 病因と病態生理学
    • 病因
    • 病態生理学
    • 1型糖尿病の膵島自己反応性をモニタリングするバイオマーカー

第4章 疫学

  • 疾患の背景
  • 危険因子と合併症
  • 世界の過去の動向
  • 主要7市場の予測手法
  • 1型糖尿病の疫学的予測（2023年～33年）
    • 1型糖尿病の患者数
    • 1型糖尿病の患者数：年齢別
    • 1型糖尿病の患者数：性別
    • 1型糖尿病の患者数：BMIカテゴリ別
    • 低血糖を経験した1型糖尿病の患者数
    • 不安定型糖尿病を伴う1型糖尿病の患者数
    • DKA事象を経験したT1Dの患者数
    • 膵臓移植の対象となる1型糖尿病の患者数
    • CKDを伴うT1Dの患者数
    • CVDを伴うT1Dの患者数
    • HLA-DQ8をコードする遺伝子を少なくとも1つ持つ1型糖尿病の患者数
    • 1型糖尿病の総有病者数
  • 議論
    • 疫学的予測の考察
    • COVID-19の影響
    • 分析の限界
    • 分析の強み

第5章 疾病管理

  • 診断と治療の概要
  • 米国の疾病管理
  • 欧州5ヶ国の疾病管理
  • 日本の疾病管理
  • 疾病管理に関するKOLの考察

第6章 現在の治療オプション

  • 概要

第7章 アンメットニーズと機会の評価

  • 概要
  • 疾患修飾療法の差し迫った必要性
  • 低血糖発作の回避と血糖コントロールの最適化
  • コンプライアンスの向上とインスリン療法の負担軽減
  • 1型糖尿病の管理にかかる高い費用

第8章 研究開発戦略

  • 概要
    • 免疫調節療法：自己免疫病態への対処
    • 先進のドラッグデリバリーシステムとグルコース応答性インスリン
    • 再生医療：治癒的療法の追求
  • 臨床試験の設計
    • 研究デザイン - 適応型臨床試験と包括的なフレームワーク
    • デジタルヘルスの統合
    • モデルベースのシミュレーション

第9章 パイプライン評価

  • 概要
  • 臨床開発中の有望な医薬品

第10章 パイプライン評価の分析

  • 概要
  • 競合の評価
    • インスリン療法
    • インスリン以外の治療法

第11章 現在の企業と将来の企業

  • 概要
  • 取引の動向

第12章 市場見通し

  • 世界市場
    • 予測
    • 促進要因と障壁 - 世界の問題
  • 米国
    • 予測
    • 主な出来事
    • 促進要因と障壁
  • 欧州連合
    • 予測
    • 主な出来事
    • 促進要因と障壁
  • 日本
    • 予測
    • 主な出来事
    • 促進要因と障壁

第13章 付録

図表

List of Tables

  • Table 1: Type 1 Diabetes: key metrics in the 7MM
  • Table 2: Symptoms of T1D
  • Table 3: Diagnostic tests commonly used for T1D
  • Table 4: Risk factors and comorbidities for T1D
  • Table 5: Diagnostic tests and typical criteria for diagnosing T1D
  • Table 6: Treatment guidelines for T1D
  • Table 7: Top 10 deals by value, 2019-24
  • Table 8: T1D market - global drivers and barriers, 2023-33
  • Table 9: Key events impacting sales for T1D in the US, 2023-33
  • Table 10: T1D market - drivers and barriers in the US, 2023-33
  • Table 11: Key events impacting sales for T1D in the 5EU, 2023-33
  • Table 12: T1D market - drivers and barriers in the 5EU, 2023-33
  • Table 13: Key events impacting sales for T1D in Japan, 2023-33
  • Table 14: T1D market - drivers and barriers in Japan, 2023-33
  • Table 15: High-prescribing physicians (non-KOLs) surveyed, by country

List of Figures

  • Figure 1: Global sales forecast by country for T1D in 2023 and 2033
  • Figure 2: Analysis of the company portfolio gap in T1D during the forecast period
  • Figure 3: Competitive assessment of the late-stage insulin and non-insulin treatments that GlobalData expects to be licensed for the treatment of T1D during the forecast period
  • Figure 4: Etiology of T1D
  • Figure 5: Pathophysiology of T1D
  • Figure 6: 7MM, diagnosed prevalence of T1D, men and women, %, all ages, 2023
  • Figure 7: 7MM, total prevalence of T1D, men and women, %, all ages, 2023
  • Figure 8: 7MM, sources used and not used to forecast the diagnosed prevalent cases of T1D
  • Figure 9: 7MM, sources used to forecast the diagnosed prevalent cases of T1D segmented by BMI category
  • Figure 10: 7MM, sources used and not used to forecast the diagnosed prevalent cases of T1D that experienced hypoglycemia
  • Figure 11: 7MM, source used to forecast the diagnosed prevalent cases of T1D with brittle diabetes
  • Figure 12: 7MM, sources used and not used to forecast the diagnosed prevalent cases of T1D that experienced DKA
  • Figure 13: 7MM, sources used to forecast the diagnosed prevalent cases of T1D that are eligible for a pancreas transplant
  • Figure 14: 7MM, sources used and not used to forecast the diagnosed prevalent cases of T1D with CKD
  • Figure 15: 7MM, sources used and not used to forecast the diagnosed prevalent cases of T1D with CVD
  • Figure 16: 7MM, sources used to forecast the diagnosed prevalent cases of T1D with at least one gene encoding for HLA-DQ8
  • Figure 17: 7MM, sources used to forecast the total prevalent cases of T1D
  • Figure 18: 7MM, diagnosed prevalent cases of T1D, N, both sexes, all ages, 2023
  • Figure 19: 7MM, diagnosed prevalent cases of T1D by age, N, both sexes, 2023
  • Figure 20: 7MM, diagnosed prevalent cases of T1D by sex, N, all ages, 2023
  • Figure 21: 7MM, diagnosed prevalent cases of T1D by BMI category, N, both sexes, all ages, 2023
  • Figure 22: 7MM, diagnosed prevalent cases of T1D that experienced hypoglycemic events, N, both sexes, all ages, 2023
  • Figure 23: 7MM, diagnosed prevalent cases of T1D with brittle diabetes, N, both sexes, all ages, 2023
  • Figure 24: 7MM, diagnosed prevalent cases of T1D that experienced DKA, N, both sexes, all ages, 2023
  • Figure 25: 7MM, diagnosed prevalent cases of T1D eligible for pancreas transplantation, N, both sexes, >=20 years,
  • Figure 26: 7MM, diagnosed prevalent cases of T1D with CKD, N, both sexes, all ages, 2023
  • Figure 27: 7MM, diagnosed prevalent cases of T1D with CVD, N, both sexes, all ages, 2023
  • Figure 28: 7MM, diagnosed prevalent cases of T1D with at least one gene encoding for HLA-DQ8, N, both sexes, all ages, 2023
  • Figure 29: 7MM, total prevalent cases of T1D, N, both sexes, all ages, 2023
  • Figure 30: Disease management flow chart
  • Figure 31: Unmet needs and opportunities in T1D
  • Figure 32: Overview of the development pipeline in T1D
  • Figure 33: Key late-stage trials for the promising pipeline agents that GlobalData expects to be licensed for T1D in the 7MM during the forecast period
  • Figure 34: Competitive assessment of the pipeline insulin therapies benchmarked against the standard of care (SOC), Novolog (insulin aspart)
  • Figure 35: Competitive assessment of the pipeline non-insulin therapies benchmarked against the standard of care (SOC), Tzield (teplizumab)
  • Figure 36: Analysis of the company portfolio gap in T1D during the forecast period
  • Figure 37: Global (7MM) sales forecast by country for T1D in 2023 and 2033
  • Figure 38: Sales forecast by class for T1D in the US in 2023 and 2033
  • Figure 39: Sales forecast by class for T1D in the 5EU in 2023 and 2033
  • Figure 40: Sales forecast by class for T1D in Japan in 2023 and 2033
目次
Product Code: GDHC302PIDR-7M

This report covers the 7MM (US, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK, Japan) and provides an Excel-based forecast model for the type 1 diabetes market through 2033.

GlobalData estimates sales of T1D therapeutics to be approximately $2.83 billion across the 7MM in 2023. By 2033, GlobalData expects the T1D market to grow at a strong compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 13.3%, reaching sales of $9.91 billion by the end of the forecast period.

Major drivers of T1D market growth over the forecast period are the -

  • Increase in the prescription of rapid-acting insulins in line with rising use of insulin pumps
  • Launch of several oral and injectable agents, particularly immunomodulatory therapies
  • Increase in the global prevalence of T1D

Major barriers that will restrict the growth of the T1D market during the forecast period are the -

  • High price of certain insulins and immunomodulatory agents
  • Patent expiries allowing for further biosimilar and generic erosion
  • High failure rate of clinical trials developing disease-modifying therapeutics

Scope

  • Overview of type 1 diabetes, including epidemiology, symptoms, diagnosis, and disease management.
  • Annualized type 1 diabetes therapeutics market revenue, cost of therapy per patient, and treatment usage patterns forecast from 2023 to 2033.
  • Key topics covered include strategic competitor assessment, market characterization, unmet needs, clinical trial mapping, and implications of these factors for the type 1 diabetes therapeutics market.
  • Pipeline analysis: comprehensive data assessing emerging trends and mechanisms of action under development for type 1 diabetes treatment. The most promising candidates in late-stage development are profiled.
  • Analysis of the current and future market competition in the global type 1 diabetes therapeutics market. Insightful review of the key industry drivers, restraints and challenges. Each trend is independently researched to provide qualitative analysis of its implications.

Reasons to Buy

  • Develop and design your in-licensing and out-licensing strategies through a review of pipeline products and technologies, and by identifying the companies with the most robust pipeline.
  • Develop business strategies by understanding the trends shaping and driving the 7MM type 1 diabetes therapeutics market.
  • Drive revenues by understanding the key trends, innovative products and technologies, market segments, and companies likely to impact the 7MM type 1 diabetes therapeutics market in the future.
  • Formulate effective sales and marketing strategies by understanding the competitive landscape and by analyzing the performance of various competitors.
  • Identify emerging players with potentially strong product portfolios and create effective counter-strategies to gain a competitive advantage.
  • Organize your sales and marketing efforts by identifying the market categories and segments that present maximum opportunities for consolidations, investments and strategic partnerships.

Table of Contents

Table of Contents

1 Type 1 Diabetes: Executive Summary

  • 1.1 Type 1 Diabetes therapeutics market will grow to $9.91 billion by 2033
  • 1.2 T1D market leaders employ diverse strategies to protect insulin franchises from biosimilar threats, while emerging players focus on disease-modifying innovations
  • 1.3 Persistent unmet needs highlight gaps in current and emerging T1D therapies
  • 1.4 The synergistic rise of pumps, CGMs, and ultra-rapid-acting insulins in T1D management
  • 1.5 What do physicians think?

2 Introduction

  • 2.1 Catalyst
  • 2.2 Related reports
  • 2.3 Upcoming reports

3 Disease Overview

  • 3.1 Etiology and pathophysiology
    • 3.1.1 Etiology
    • 3.1.2 Pathophysiology
    • 3.1.3 Biomarkers for monitoring the islet autoreactivity of T1D

4 Epidemiology

  • 4.1 Disease background
  • 4.2 Risk factors and comorbidities
  • 4.3 Global and historical trends
  • 4.4 7MM forecast methodology
    • 4.4.1 Sources
    • 4.4.2 Forecast assumptions and methods
    • 4.4.3 Forecast assumptions and methods: diagnosed prevalent cases of T1D - 7MM
    • 4.4.4 Forecast assumptions and methods: diagnosed prevalent cases of T1D
    • 4.4.5 Diagnosed prevalent cases of T1D segmented by BMI
    • 4.4.6 Diagnosed prevalent cases of T1D that experienced hypoglycemic events
    • 4.4.7 Diagnosed prevalent cases of T1D with brittle diabetes
    • 4.4.8 Diagnosed prevalent cases of T1D that experienced DKA events
    • 4.4.9 Diagnosed prevalent cases of T1D eligible for pancreas transplantation
    • 4.4.10 Diagnosed prevalent cases of T1D with CKD
    • 4.4.11 Diagnosed prevalent cases of T1D with CVD
    • 4.4.12 Diagnosed prevalent cases of T1D with at least one gene encoding for HLA-DQ8
    • 4.4.13 Forecast assumptions and methods: total prevalent cases of T1D
  • 4.5 Epidemiological forecast for T1D (2023-33)
    • 4.5.1 Diagnosed prevalent cases of T1D
    • 4.5.2 Age-specific diagnosed prevalent cases of T1D
    • 4.5.3 Sex-specific diagnosed prevalent cases of T1D
    • 4.5.4 Diagnosed prevalent cases of T1D by BMI category
    • 4.5.5 Diagnosed prevalent cases of T1D that experienced hypoglycemic events
    • 4.5.6 Diagnosed prevalent cases of T1D with brittle diabetes
    • 4.5.7 Diagnosed prevalent cases of T1D that experienced DKA events
    • 4.5.8 Diagnosed prevalent cases of T1D eligible for pancreas transplantation
    • 4.5.9 Diagnosed prevalent cases of T1D with CKD
    • 4.5.10 Diagnosed prevalent cases of T1D with CVD
    • 4.5.11 Diagnosed prevalent cases of T1D with at least one gene encoding for HLA-DQ8
    • 4.5.12 Total prevalent cases of T1D
  • 4.6 Discussion
    • 4.6.1 Epidemiological forecast insight
    • 4.6.2 COVID-19 impact
    • 4.6.3 Limitations of the analysis
    • 4.6.4 Strengths of the analysis

5 Disease Management

  • 5.1 Diagnosis and treatment overview
  • 5.2 US disease management
  • 5.3 5EU disease management
  • 5.4 Japan disease management
  • 5.5 KOL insights on disease management

6 Current Treatment Options

  • 6.1 Overview

7 Unmet Needs and Opportunity Assessment

  • 7.1 Overview
  • 7.2 Urgent need for disease-modifying therapies
  • 7.3 Avoiding hypoglycemic episodes and optimising glycemic control
  • 7.4 Improving compliance and reducing the burden of insulin therapy
  • 7.5 High financial cost of T1D management

8 R&D Strategies

  • 8.1 Overview
    • 8.1.1 Immunomodulatory therapies: addressing autoimmune pathogenesis
    • 8.1.2 Advanced drug delivery systems and glucose-responsive insulins
    • 8.1.3 Regenerative medicine: pursuing curative therapies
  • 8.2 Clinical trials design
    • 8.2.1 Study design - adaptive clinical trials and comprehensive frameworks
    • 8.2.2 Digital health integration
    • 8.2.3 Model-based simulations

9 Pipeline Assessment

  • 9.1 Overview
  • 9.2 Promising drugs in clinical development

10 Pipeline Valuation Analysis

  • 10.1 Overview
  • 10.2 Competitive assessment
    • 10.2.1 Insulin therapies
    • 10.2.2 Non-insulin therapies

11 Current and Future Players

  • 11.1 Overview
  • 11.2 Deal-making trends

12 Market Outlook

  • 12.1 Global markets
    • 12.1.1 Forecast
    • 12.1.2 Drivers and barriers - global issues
  • 12.2 US
    • 12.2.1 Forecast
    • 12.2.2 Key events
    • 12.2.3 Drivers and barriers
  • 12.3 EU
    • 12.3.1 Forecast
    • 12.3.2 Key events
    • 12.3.3 Drivers and barriers
  • 12.4 Japan
    • 12.4.1 Forecast
    • 12.4.2 Key events
    • 12.4.3 Drivers and barriers

13 Appendix

  • 13.1 Bibliography
  • 13.2 Abbreviations
  • 13.3 Methodology
    • 13.3.1 Forecasting methodology
  • 13.4 Primary research - KOLs interviewed for this report
    • 13.4.1 KOLs
  • 13.5 Primary research - prescriber survey
  • 13.6 About the authors
    • 13.6.1 Analyst
    • 13.6.2 Therapy Area Director
    • 13.6.3 Vice President of Disease Intelligence and Epidemiology
    • 13.6.4 Global Head of Pharma Research, Analysis, and Competitive Intelligence
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