慢性腎臓病（CKD）：主要7ヶ国市場の医薬品予測と市場分析

主要7市場（米国、フランス、ドイツ、イタリア、スペイン、英国、日本）におけるCKD治療薬の売上は、2023年に全体で約22億米ドルと推定されます。2033年にかけてCKD市場はCAGRで19.6%の高成長を示し、予測期間の終わりまでに売上は135億米ドルに達すると予測されます。

予測期間におけるCKD市場の成長の主な促進要因は以下の通りです。

• グルカゴン様ペプチド1（GLP-1）受容体作動薬、Novo NordiskのOzempic（セマグルチド）の適応拡大が見込まれること
• 8つのパイプライン経口剤と6つのパイプライン注射剤の上市
• 世界のCKD有病率の増加

予測期間にCKD市場の成長を抑制する主な障壁は以下の通りです。

• 近年開発されたCKD治療薬の高い価格
• 腎臓専門医やその他の医師が新しいCKD治療薬の採用や処方に消極的であること
• CKD治療薬のジェネリック医薬品の普及により、高価格のブランド治療薬の市場浸透が困難になっている

当レポートでは、慢性腎臓病（CKD）の主要7市場について調査分析し、CKDの概要、市場収益の予測、パイプラインの分析、現在と将来の市場競合の分析などを提供しています。

目次

第1章 慢性腎臓病：エグゼクティブサマリー

• CKD市場は2023年～2033年に力強い成長を示します。
• 心血管薬の適応拡大は市場成長を促進します。
• 確立された治療法が利用できるにもかかわらず、CKD市場ではアンメットニーズが残っています。
• 経口剤がCKD市場で主流となります。
• 医師の考え

第2章 イントロダクション

第3章 疾患の概要

• 病因と病態生理学
• 分類または病期のシステム

第4章 疫学

• 疾患の背景
• 危険因子と合併症
• 世界の過去の動向
• 主要7市場の予測手法
• CKDの疫学的予測（2023年～2033年）
  • CKDの総有病者数
  • CKDの総有病者数：病期別
  • CKDと診断された有病者数
  • CKDと診断された有病者数：年齢別
  • CKDと診断された有病者数：性別
  • CKDと診断された有病者数：病期別
  • CKDと診断された有病者数（透析依存に基づく）
• 議論
  • 疫学的予測の考察
  • COVID-19の影響
  • 分析の限界
  • 分析の強み

第5章 疾病管理

• 診断と治療の概要
• 疾病管理に関するKOLの考察

第6章 現在の治療オプション

• 概要

第7章 アンメットニーズと機会の評価

• 概要
• 有効な医薬品の不足
• 医薬品のコストと市場参入
• 新製品に関する教育と認知の欠如
• CKD治療のコンプライアンスと最適な管理

第8章 研究開発戦略

• 概要
  • その他の適応症に対して承認されている治療法の適応拡大
  • 製品パイプラインを拡大するための合併と買収
• 臨床試験の設計
  • CKDの臨床エンドポイント
  • 包含基準と除外基準

第9章 パイプラインの評価

• 概要
• 臨床開発中の有望な医薬品

第10章 パイプライン評価の分析

• 概要
• 競合の評価

第11章 現在の企業と将来の企業

• 概要
• 取引決定の動向

第12章 市場見通し

• 主要7市場
  • 予報
  • 促進要因と障壁 - 世界の問題
• 米国
  • 予報
  • 重要なイベント
  • 促進要因と障壁
• 欧州5ヶ国
  • 予報
  • 重要なイベント
  • 促進要因と障壁
• 日本
  • 予報
  • 重要なイベント
  • 促進要因と障壁

第13章 付録

This report covers the 7MM (US, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK, Japan) and provides an Excel-based forecast model for the Chronic Kidney Disease (CKD) market through 2033.

GlobalData estimates the sales of CKD therapeutics to be approximately $2.2 billion across the 7MM in 2023. By 2033, GlobalData expects the CKD market to grow at a strong compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 19.6%, reaching sales of $13.5 billion by the end of the forecast period.

The major drivers of CKD market growth over the forecast period are the:

• Anticipated expanded indication for glucagon-like peptide 1 (GLP-1) receptor agonist, Novo Nordisk's Ozempic (semaglutide)
• Launch of eight oral pipeline agents and six injectable pipeline agents
• Increase in the global prevalence of CKD.

The major barriers that will restrict the growth of the CKD market during the forecast period are the:

• High price of recently developed CKD therapies
• General reluctance of nephrologists and other physicians to adopt and prescribe new CKD therapies.
• Widespread use of generic CKD drugs, making it difficult for high-priced branded therapies to penetrate the market.

Key Highlights

• GlobalData estimates the sales of CKD therapeutics to be approximately $2.2 billion across the 7MM in 2023. By 2033, GlobalData expects the CKD market to grow at a strong compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 19.6%, reaching sales of $13.5 billion by the end of the forecast period.
• The major drivers of CKD market growth over the forecast period are the:
• Anticipated expanded indication for glucagon-like peptide 1 (GLP-1) receptor agonist, Novo Nordisk's Ozempic (semaglutide)
• Launch of eight oral pipeline agents and six injectable pipeline agents
• Increase in the global prevalence of CKD.

Scope

• Overview of CKD, including epidemiology, symptoms, diagnosis, and disease management.
• Annualized CKD therapeutics market revenue, cost of therapy per patient, and treatment usage patterns forecast from 2023 to 2033.
• Key topics covered include strategic competitor assessment, market characterization, unmet needs, clinical trial mapping, and implications of these factors for the CKD therapeutics market.
• Pipeline analysis: comprehensive data assessing emerging trends and mechanisms of action under development for CKD treatment. The most promising candidates in late-stage development are profiled.
• Analysis of the current and future market competition in the global CKD therapeutics market. Insightful review of the key industry drivers, restraints and challenges. Each trend is independently researched to provide qualitative analysis of its implications.

Reasons to Buy

• Develop and design your in-licensing and out-licensing strategies through a review of pipeline products and technologies, and by identifying the companies with the most robust pipeline.
• Develop business strategies by understanding the trends shaping and driving the 7MM CKD therapeutics market.
• Drive revenues by understanding the key trends, innovative products and technologies, market segments, and companies likely to impact the 7MM CKD therapeutics market in the future.
• Formulate effective sales and marketing strategies by understanding the competitive landscape and by analyzing the performance of various competitors.
• Identify emerging players with potentially strong product portfolios and create effective counter-strategies to gain a competitive advantage.
• Organize your sales and marketing efforts by identifying the market categories and segments that present maximum opportunities for consolidations, investments and strategic partnerships.

Table of Contents

Table of Contents

1 Chronic Kidney Disease: Executive Summary

• 1.1 The CKD market will exhibit strong growth between 2023 and 2033.
• 1.2 Label expansions of cardiovascular drugs will fuel market growth.
• 1.3 Unmet needs remain in the CKD market despite the availability of well-established therapies.
• 1.4 Oral agents will dominate the CKD market.
• 1.5 What do physicians think?

2 Introduction

• 2.1 Catalyst
• 2.2 Related reports
• 2.3 Upcoming reports

3 Disease Overview

• 3.1 Etiology and pathophysiology
  • 3.1.1 Etiology
  • 3.1.2 Pathophysiology
• 3.2 Classification or staging systems

4 Epidemiology

• 4.1 Disease background
• 4.2 Risk factors and comorbidities
• 4.3 Global and historical trends
• 4.4 7MM forecast methodology.
  • 4.4.1 Sources
  • 4.4.2 Forecast assumptions and methods.
  • 4.4.3 Total prevalent cases of CKD
  • 4.4.4 Total prevalent cases of CKD by stage
  • 4.4.5 Diagnosed prevalent cases of CKD.
  • 4.4.6 Diagnosed prevalent cases of CKD by stage.
  • 4.4.7 Diagnosed prevalent cases of CKD based on dialysis dependence.
• 4.5 Epidemiological forecast for CKD (2023-33)
  • 4.5.1 Total prevalent cases of CKD
  • 4.5.2 Total prevalent cases of CKD by stage
  • 4.5.3 Diagnosed prevalent cases of CKD.
  • 4.5.4 Age-specific diagnosed prevalent cases of CKD
  • 4.5.5 Sex-specific diagnosed prevalent cases of CKD
  • 4.5.6 Diagnosed prevalent cases of CKD by stage.
  • 4.5.7 Diagnosed prevalent cases of CKD by dialysis dependence.
• 4.6 Discussion
  • 4.6.1 Epidemiological forecast insight
  • 4.6.2 COVID-19 impact.
  • 4.6.3 Limitations of the analysis
  • 4.6.4 Strengths of the analysis

5 Disease Management

• 5.1 Diagnosis and treatment overview
• 5.2 KOL insights on disease management

6 Current Treatment Options

• 6.1 Overview

7 Unmet Needs and Opportunity Assessment

• 7.1 Overview
• 7.2 Lack of efficacious drugs
• 7.3 Drug cost and market access
• 7.4 Lack of education and awareness of new products
• 7.5 Compliance and optimal management of CKD treatments

8 R&D Strategies

• 8.1 Overview
  • 8.1.1 Label expansion for therapies approved for other indications.
  • 8.1.2 Mergers and acquisitions to expand the product pipeline.
• 8.2 Clinical trials design
  • 8.2.1 Clinical endpoints for CKD
  • 8.2.2 Inclusion and exclusion criteria

9 Pipeline Assessment

• 9.1 Overview
• 9.2 Promising drugs in clinical development

10 Pipeline Valuation Analysis

• 10.1 Overview
• 10.2 Competitive assessment

11 Current and Future Players

• 11.1 Overview
• 11.2 Deal-making trends

12 Market Outlook

• 12.1 Seven major markets
  • 12.1.1 Forecast
  • 12.1.2 Drivers and barriers - global Issues
• 12.2 US
  • 12.2.1 Forecast
  • 12.2.2 Key events
  • 12.2.3 Drivers and barriers
• 12.3 5EU
  • 12.3.1 Forecast
  • 12.3.2 Key events
  • 12.3.3 Drivers and barriers
• 12.4 Japan
  • 12.4.1 Forecast
  • 12.4.2 Key events
  • 12.4.3 Drivers and barriers

13 Appendix

• 13.1 Bibliography
• 13.2 Abbreviations
• 13.3 Methodology
  • 13.3.1 Forecasting methodology
• 13.4 Primary research - KOLs interviewed for this report.
  • 13.4.1 KOLs
• 13.5 Primary research - prescriber survey
• 13.6 About the authors
  • 13.6.1 Analyst
  • 13.6.2 Therapy Area Director
  • 13.6.3 Epidemiologist
  • 13.6.4 Vice President of Disease Intelligence and Epidemiology
  • 13.6.5 Global Head of Pharma Research, Analysis, and Competitive Intelligence
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