二酸化炭素回収・有効利用・貯留（CCUS）における石油・ガス部門の戦略

要約

世界のCCUS処理能力は、2030年までに5億600万トン/年に達すると予測されており、これは当時から現在までのCAGRで38％に相当します。しかし、この成長にもかかわらず、CCUS技術は十分なスピードで拡大していません。

CCUSは石油・ガス産業にとって重要な機会であり、進行中の排出を緩和し、エネルギー安全保障と脱炭素化の両立を支援するとともに、大気から二酸化炭素を除去する可能性を持っています。

石油・ガス企業は、2030年も引き続き企業の処理能力ランキングの上位を占める見込みですが、Exxon MobilがOccidental Petroleumに代わってマーケットリーダーとなり、10年後までに処理能力が3,120万トン/年に達する見込みです。

各国が化石燃料への依存を減らす中、CCUS技術一式、特に直接空気回収技術で処理能力を構築する石油・ガス企業がもっとも優位な立場に立つ見込みです。

主なハイライト

2030年～2070年に、CCUSによるCO2削減量は0.6Gtから6.89Gtに増加すると予測され、これはCAGRで6.3％に相当します。

活動中のプロジェクトの数は、2023年の66件から10年後までに285件に増加すると予測されます。

現在から2030年までに、燃焼後回収処理能力への大きなシフトが予測され、10年後までにこの技術タイプが現行の処理能力の65％を占める見込みです。石油・ガス企業は、点排出源である多くの産業の脱炭素化を促進するために、この分野における処理能力を高めることを検討すべきです。

高い資本コストが参入障壁となっていることから、上位10社がCCUSの現行の処理能力全体の75％以上を占めています。その結果、石油・ガス部門がCCUSの現行の処理能力の大半を占めています。

当レポートでは、世界のCCUS市場について調査分析し、石油・ガス部門の重点分野、回収技術と企業ごとの現行の処理能力、パイプライン処理能力などの情報を提供しています。

目次

• CCUSによる排出の削減
• 石油・ガスのCCUS戦略
• CCUS技術の種類
• CCUSのバリューチェーンとOGの重点分野
• 産業課題に直面した場合のCCUSの戦略的価値
• CCUS市場の見通し
• CCUSプロジェクトの見通し
• CCUS市場における技術の変化
• 国のランキング、主要政策の発展
• 石油・ガスのCCUS処理能力
• CCUS処理能力における現在のリーダー
• 10年後のCCUSのリーダー
• 2030年までの処理能力で最大の回収プロジェクト
• 2030年までの処理能力で最大の貯留プロジェクト
• 石油・ガスにおけるCCUSのマーケットシグナル
• 取引活動
• 雇用動向
• 企業の出願動向

List of Tables

List of Tables

• The largest carbon capture projects by their 2030 capacity

List of Figures

List of Figures

• Global CO2 pathways according to IPCC AR6 remaining carbon budget
• CO2 emissions reductions in the energy sector in the sustainable development scenario relative to the stated policies scenario
• CCUS capacity and project count, 2020 - 2030

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Abstract

This report provides an overview of the oil and gas sector's engagement with CCUS technology. It indicates the emission reduction potential of CCUS, focus areas for the oil and gas sector within the CCUS market, and active and pipeline capacity by capture technology and company.

A steep reduction in emissions is required over the next decade to keep the 1.5 degree warming scenario alive. Carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) is one of the few technologies that can avert existing emissions and remove carbon dioxide that has accumulated in the atmosphere.

Global CCUS capacity is expected to reach 506 mtpa by 2030, which represents a CAGR of 38% between then and now. However, despite this growth, CCUS technology is not scaling quick enough.

CCUS represents an important opportunity for the oil and gas industry, allowing ongoing emissions to be mitigated, helping the sector to balance energy security with decarbonization, as well as having the potential to remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.

Oil and gas players will continue to dominate company capacity rankings in 2030, but Exxon Mobil will replace Occidental Petroleum as the market leader, reaching a capacity 31.2 mtpa by the end of the decade.

Oil and gas players that build their capability across the full suite of CCUS technologies, especially direct air capture, will be in the strongest position as countries continue to decrease their reliance on fossil fuels.

Key Highlights

CCUS represents an important opportunity for the oil and gas industry, allowing ongoing emissions to be mitigated, helping the sector to balance energy security with decarbonization, as well as having the potential to remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.

Oil and gas players that build their capability across the full suite of CCUS technologies, especially direct air capture, will be in the strongest position as countries continue to decrease their reliance on fossil fuels.

Between 2030 and 2070, CO2 reductions from CCUS are expected to increase from 0.6Gt to 6.89 Gt, representing a CAGR of 6.3%.

The number of active projects is expected to rise from 66 in 2023 to 285 by the end of the decade.

A major shift towards post-combustion capacity is expected between now and 2030, with this technology type dominating 65% of active capacity by the end of the decade. Oil and gas players should consider increasing their capability in this area in order to capitalize on the wider decarbonization of a number of industries that represent point sources of emissions.

High capital costs have created a barrier to entry, resulting in the top 10 companies accounting for over 75% of total active CCUS capacity. As a result, the oil and gas sector currently accounts for the majority of active CCUS capacity.

Scope

• CCUS emission reduction potential
• CCUS technology briefing and value chain
• Total CCUS capacity over time
• Breakdown of CCUS capacity by capture technology in 2023 and forecasted in 2030.
• CCUS capacity by country and key policy developments
• CCUS capacity by company in 2023 and 2030
• Top 10 CCUS projects in 2030 by capacity
• Locations of the world's largest CO2 storage sites in 2030.
• CCUS deal activity within oil and gas
• CCUS hiring trends in oil and gas
• CCUS within oil and gas company filings

Reasons to Buy

• Understand the key trends and challenges within the CCUS market
• Identify the key countries and players for CCUS capture and storage capability.
• Develop market insight of current, in development and announced capacity and latest trends of the sector.
• Understand how the oil and gas sector is engaging with this technology through upcoming capacity as well as alternative datasets such as deals, hiring and company filings trends.

Table of Contents

Table of Contents

• Emission reduction through CCUS
• The Oil and Gas CCUS strategy
• CCUS technology types
• The CCUS value chain and OG's focus areas
• The strategic value of CCUS in the face of industry challenges
• CCUS market outlook
• The CCUS project outlook
• Technological shift in the CCUS market
• Country ranking and key policy developments
• Oil and Gas CCUS capacity
• Current leaders in CCUS capacity
• Leaders in CCUS at the end of the decade
• Largest capture projects by 2030 capacity
• Largest storage projects by 2030 capacity
• CCUS market signals in oil and gas
• Deal activity
• Hiring trends
• Corporate filing trends