季節性インフルエンザワクチンの疫学分析と2032年までの予測

季節性インフルエンザ（季節性インフルエンザ）は、伝染性の呼吸器系ウイルス性疾患です。季節性インフルエンザウイルスには4つの型（A、B、C、D）がありますが、公衆衛生上懸念されるヒトの疾病を引き起こすのはA型とB型のみです。インフルエンザの感染は、インフルエンザにかかった人が咳をしたり、くしゃみをしたり、話したりすることで飛沫が飛び散ることで起こります。これらの飛沫は人々の口や鼻に入り、肺に吸い込まれます。

インフルエンザの症状は、頭痛、発熱、咳、喉の痛み、筋肉や関節の痛みです。インフルエンザウイルスは、乳幼児、高齢者、幼児、免疫力が低下している人ほど重症化する傾向があります。世界保健機関（WHO）は、成人の約5～10％、小児の約20～30％が毎年インフルエンザ様疾患（ILI）に罹患すると推定しています。

当レポートでは、主要7ヶ国市場（米国、フランス、ドイツ、イタリア、スペイン、英国、日本）における季節性インフルエンザワクチンの危険因子、併存疾患、世界および過去の疫学動向について概説し、季節性インフルエンザの診断済み発症例と診断済み有病率に関する10年間の疫学予測などをまとめています。

目次

第1章 季節性インフルエンザワクチン：エグゼクティブサマリー

第2章 疫学

• 病気の背景
• 危険因子と併存疾患
• 世界的および歴史的動向
• 主要7ヶ国予測調査手法
• インフルエンザ様疾患(ILI)、検査で確定した季節性インフルエンザ、および季節性インフルエンザワクチン接種を受けた集団の疫学予測（2022年～2032年）
  • インフルエンザ様疾患(ILI)診断症例
  • インフルエンザ様疾患(ILI)診断症例、年齢別
  • インフルエンザ様疾患(ILI)診断症例、性別
  • 検査で確定した季節性インフルエンザの診断症例
  • 検査で確定した季節性インフルエンザの診断症例、年齢別
  • 検査で確定した季節性インフルエンザの診断症例、性別
  • 季節性インフルエンザワクチン接種を受けた集団
  • 季節性インフルエンザワクチン接種を受けた集団、年齢別
• 議論
  • 疫学予測の洞察
  • COVID-19の影響
  • 分析の限界
  • 分析の強み

第3章 付録

List of Tables

List of Tables

• Table 1: Summary of updated data types
• Table 2: Risk factors and comorbidities for SI

List of Figures

List of Figures

• Figure 1: 7MM, diagnosed incident cases of lab-confirmed influenza, both sexes and all ages, N, 2022 and 2032
• Figure 2: 7MM, SI vaccinated cases, both sexes and all ages, N, 2022 and 2032
• Figure 3: 7MM, diagnosed incidence of lab-confirmed SI, both sexes, cases per 100,000 population, all ages, 2012-32
• Figure 4: 7MM, SI vaccination rate, both sexes, %, all ages, 2012-32
• Figure 5: 7MM, sources used to forecast diagnosed incident cases of ILI
• Figure 6: 7MM, sources used to forecast diagnosed incident cases of lab-confirmed SI
• Figure 7: 7MM, sources used in SI vaccinated population
• Figure 8: 7MM, diagnosed incident cases of ILI, N, both sexes, all ages, 2022Figure 9: 7MM, diagnosed incident cases of ILI by age, N, both sexes, 2022
• Figure 10: 7MM, diagnosed incident cases of ILI by sex, N, all ages, 2022Figure 11: 7MM, diagnosed incident cases of lab-confirmed SI, N, both sexes, all ages, 2022
• Figure 12: 7MM, diagnosed incident cases of lab-confirmed SI by age, N, both sexes, 2022
• Figure 13: 7MM, diagnosed incident cases of lab-confirmed SI by sex, N, all ages, 2022
• Figure 14: 7MM, SI vaccinated population, N, both sexes, all ages, 2022
• Figure 15: 7MM, SI vaccinated population by age, N, both sexes, 2022

Abstract

Seasonal influenza (SI) is a contagious respiratory viral illness. There are four types of SI viruses: A, B, C, and D; however, only types A and B cause human disease of public health concern (WHO, 2023). Influenza transmission occurs when people with the flu cough, sneeze, or talk, thereby disseminating droplets. These droplets can land in the mouths or noses of people who then inhale them into the lungs (CDC, 2022).

Symptoms of influenza are headache, fever, cough, sore throat, and aching muscles and joints. The influenza virus tends to cause more severe disease in infants, elderly people, young children, and those with a weakened immune system (WHO, 2023). The World Health Organization (WHO) estimates that approximately 5-10% of adults and 20-30% of children are affected by an influenza-like illness (ILI) annually (WHO, 2023).

Scope

• Seasonal Influenza (SI) vaccines Epidemiology Report provides an overview of the risk factors, comorbidities, and global trends of SI in the seven major markets (7MM: US, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK, and Japan).
• The report includes a 10-year epidemiological forecast for the diagnosed incident cases of influenza- like illness (ILI), and lab-confirmed SI segmented by age (0-4 years, 5-17 years, 18-64 years, and ≥65 years) and sex. The report also includes a 10-year epidemiological forecast for the SI vaccinated population segmented by age (0-4 years, 5-17 years, 18-64 years, and ≥65 years).Seasonal Influenza (SI) vaccines Epidemiology Report and Model provide an overview of the risk factors, comorbidities, and global trends of SI in the seven major markets (7MM: US, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK, and Japan).
• The report includes a 10-year epidemiological forecast for the diagnosed incident cases of influenza- like illness (ILI), and lab-confirmed SI segmented by age (0-4 years, 5-17 years, 18-64 years, and ≥65 years) and sex. The report also includes a 10-year epidemiological forecast for the SI vaccinated population segmented by age (0-4 years, 5-17 years, 18-64 years, and ≥65 years).

Reasons to Buy

• Seasonal influneza vaccines epidemiology series will allow you to -
• Develop business strategies by understanding the trends shaping and driving the global SI vaccines markets.
• Quantify patient populations in the global SI markets to improve product design, pricing, and launch plans.
• Organize sales and marketing efforts by identifying the age groups and sex that present the best opportunities for SI therapeutics in each of the markets covered.

Table of Contents

1 Seasonal Influenza Vaccines: Executive Summary

• 1.1Catalyst
• 1.2 Related Reports
• 1.3 Upcoming Reports

2 Epidemiology

• 2.1 Disease background
• 2.2 Risk factors and comorbidities
• 2.3 Global and historical trends
• 2.4 7MM forecast methodology
  • 2.4.1 Sources
  • 2.4.2 Forecast assumptions and methods
  • 2.4.3 Forecast assumptions and methods: diagnosed incident cases of ILI
  • 2.4.4 Forecast assumptions and methods: diagnosed incident cases of lab-confirmed SI
  • 2.4.5 SI vaccinated population
• 2.5 Epidemiological forecast for ILI, lab-confirmed SI, and SI vaccinated population (2022–32)
  • 2.5.1 Diagnosed incident cases of ILI
  • 2.5.2 Age-specific diagnosed incident cases of ILI
  • 2.5.3 Sex-specific diagnosed incident cases of ILI
  • 2.5.4 Diagnosed incident cases of lab-confirmed SI
  • 2.5.5 Age-specific diagnosed incident cases of lab-confirmed SI
  • 2.5.6 Sex-specific diagnosed incident cases of lab-confirmed SI
  • 2.5.7 SI vaccinated population
  • 2.5.8 Age-specific SI vaccinated population
• 2.6 Discussion
  • 2.6.1 Epidemiological forecast insight
  • 2.6.2 COVID-19 impact
  • 2.6.3 Limitations of the analysis
  • 2.6.4 Strengths of the analysis

3 Appendix

• 3.1 Bibliography
• 3.2 About the Authors
  • 3.2.1 Epidemiologist
  • 3.2.2 Reviewers
  • 3.2.3 Vice President of Disease Intelligence and Epidemiology