バイオ燃料と再生可能エネルギー製油所市場：動向と展望

ESGの逆風が強まる中、再生可能燃料の消費は増加すると予想されています。例えば、SAFの消費量は2022年から2040年の間にCAGRで32%の成長が見込まれています。その結果、共加工、精製転換、独立した再生可能エネルギー製油所の設立などを通じて、再生可能燃料を含む製品の多様化を検討する原油精製所がますます増えています。しかし、再生可能燃料への転換には多くの課題と隠れたコストがあり、再生可能燃料への転換の経済性を損なう可能性があります。

現在の市場で最も普及しているバイオ燃料は、エタノール、FAMEバイオディーゼル、再生可能ディーゼル、バイオメタノール、持続可能航空燃料（SAF）の5つです。これらの燃料は、バイオマスの処理によって生成されます。それぞれのバイオ燃料には多くの長所と短所があります。しかし、最も重要なのは、バイオ燃料は従来の燃料に比べて生涯を通じて排出される炭素量が少ないため、電化に適さない産業に脱炭素の可能性を提供できることです。バイオ燃料の脱炭素化の可能性は、その需要の増加と政策的支援の拡大につながり、多くの製油会社が再生可能燃料への製品の多様化を検討するようになっています。製油所にとっての選択肢には、コプロセシング、従来型製油所の再生可能エネルギーへの転換、単独の再生可能エネルギープロジェクトなどがあります。既存の製油所の転換は、新しい製油所施設を建設するのに比べ、コスト削減の可能性があります。しかし、転換には多くの課題が伴う。製油所転換の経済的実行可能性は、原料の近接性、入手可能性、価格などの要因に加え、従来の設備を再生可能燃料用にどの程度改修できるかにも左右されます。

SAFは2037年にFAMEバイオディーゼルを追い抜き、2022年から2040年にかけてCAGRで32%の成長が予測されています。この力強い成長は、Refuel EU Aviation Initiativeのような航空セクターの脱炭素化を目指す政策別促進されます。エタノールは同時期に1.8%という緩やかな伸びを示しますが、これは、食用作物を使用すること、従来の燃料に比べてエネルギー含有量が比較的低いことなど、この燃料の欠点を反映しており、燃料消費量と全体的なランニングコストが増加します。

世界の再生可能エネルギー製油所の数は、2020年の42から2030年には187に達すると予想されます。米国は、2030年の再生可能燃料生産能力の45％を占め、生産面では引き続き支配的となっています。

当レポートでは、バイオ燃料と再生可能エネルギー製油所市場について調査し、バイオ燃料のメリットとデメリットバイオ燃料市場の見通し、バイオ燃料消費動向、再生可能燃料市場情勢、参入企業と今後の見通しなどを提供しています。

目次

• エグゼクティブサマリー
• バイオ燃料に関する説明会
• 当社が注目する5つのバイオ燃料のご紹介
• バイオ燃料のメリットとデメリット
• バイオ燃料市場の主要企業
• 消費増加を促進するバイオ燃料政策
• バイオ燃料市場の見通し
• バイオ燃料消費の動向
• バイオ燃料取引活動
• バイオ燃料の申請動向
• 再生可能エネルギーの見通し
• 生産能力見通し
• 再生可能燃料市場情勢
• 稼働中および今後の再生可能エネルギー製油所としては最大規模
• 再生可能エネルギープロジェクト、タイプ別
• 再生可能エネルギーへの切り替え
• 再生可能燃料の台頭における石油・ガス部門の戦略
• 製油所転換のメリットとデメリット
• 進行中の変換プロジェクトと今後の変換プロジェクト
• 製油所を転換するトップ企業
• 独立系プロジェクトと変換プロジェクト

List of Tables

List of Tables

• Key players in the biofuels market
• Biofuels main policies, strategies, and targets
• Crude refineries conversion and co-processing: active and upcoming projects

List of Figures

List of Figures

• Renewable fuel consumption, 2022-2040
• Ethanol consumption, 2022-2040
• Biofuel deal activity
• Number of companies mentioning 'biofuels' within their filings, 2016-July 2023
• Top ten filer companies for mentions of 'biofuels', Jan 2020 - July 2023
• Renewable fuel production capacity and projects, 2020 - 2030
• Renewable refinery capacity by country, 2020
• Renewable refinery capacity by country, 2030
• World's largest renewable refinery projects by capacity in 2030
• Current renewable refinery projects by stage of development
• Upcoming renewable refineries by type
• Top companies retrofitting crude oil refineries capacity
• Renewable refineries: converted and co-processing vs standalone

Abstract

Amid strengthening ESG headwinds, consumption of renewable fuels is expected to rise. For example, consumption of SAFs is expected to increase at a CAGR of 32% between 2022 and 2040. As a result, more and more crude oil refineries are considering diversifying their product offerings to include renewable fuels through coprocessing, refinery conversion, and the establishment of standalone renewable refineries. However, the switch to renewable fuels holds a number of challenges and hidden costs that could undermine the economic viability of switching to renewable fuels.

The five biofuels that are most prevalent within the current market are ethanol, FAME biodiesel, renewable diesel, biomethanol, and sustainable aviation fuels (SAFs). These fuels are generated through the processing of biomass. Each biofuel contains a number of advantages and disadvantages. However, most key is that biofuels produce less carbon emissions over their lifetime than conventional fuels and so offer decarbonization potential to industries that are unsuitable for electrification. The decarbonization potential of biofuels has led to their increasing demand and growing policy support, leading many refiners to consider diversifying their products to renewable fuels. Options for refiners include co-processing, conversion of conventional refineries to renewable refineries, and standalone renewable refinery projects. Converting existing refineries offers potential cost savings compared to building new refinery facilities. However, there are a number of challenges that accompany conversion. The economic viability of refinery conversion will hinge on factors such as feedstock proximity, availability and price as well as the degree to which legacy equipment can be retrofitted for renewable fuels.

Key Highlights

• SAFs are expected to overtake FAME Biodiesel in 2037 and will grow at a CAGR of 32% between 2022 and 2040. This strong growth will be facilitated by policies aimed at decarbonizing the aviation sector such as the Refuel EU Aviation Initiative.
• Ethanol will show a more gradual increase of 1.8% over the same time frame which reflects some of this fuel's drawbacks such as its use of edible crops and comparatively lower energy content than conventional fuels, which increases fuel consumption and overall running costs.
• The number of companies mentioning biofuels within their company filings has been increasing, with the number of filer companies increasing at a CAGR of 14% between 2016 and 2022.
• Neste Corp recorded the highest number of mentions of biofuels within its filings since 2020, recording 134 across this time frame.
• The number of global renewable refineries is expected to reach 187 in 2030, compared to 42 in 2020.
• The United States will remain the dominant player in terms of production, accounting for 45% of renewable fuel production capacity in 2030.
• Only 8% of upcoming projects are crude refinery conversions, reflecting the challenges of repurposing oil refining infrastructure for the production of biofuels

Scope

• Assessment of conventional biofuels within the current market and their limiting factors
• Key market players with respect to each biofuel
• Upcoming biofuels policies
• Biofuel deals and company filings data
• Renewable fuel consumption and production forecasts
• Geography of active and upcoming renewable refinery projects
• The current renewable refinery conversion trend and its challenges
• Leading companies that are converting crude oil refineries

Reasons to Buy

• Obtain the most up to date information on recent developments and policies related to the oil refinery conversion trend.
• Identify the opportunities of challenges associated with the switch form oil refining to renewable refineries.
• Assess competitors based on their active and pipeline capacities for renewable fuel production and gain an overview of largest upcoming renewable refinery project.
• Develop business strategies by identifying the most promising route to renewable fuel conversion.

Table of Contents

Table of Contents

• Executive Summary
• Biofuels Briefing
• Introducing our five focus biofuels
• Advantages and disadvantages of biofuels
• Key players in the biofuels market
• Biofuel policies driving increasing consumption
• Biofuels Market Outlook
• Biofuel consumption trends
• Biofuel deal activity
• Biofuel filing trends
• Renewable Refineries Outlook
• Production capacity outlook
• Renewable fuels market landscape
• Largest active and upcoming renewable refineries
• Renewable refinery projects by type
• The switch to renewable refineries
• Oil and gas sector strategies amid the rise of renewable fuels
• Advantages and disadvantages of refinery conversion
• Active and upcoming conversion projects
• Top companies converting refineries
• Standalone vs conversion projects