クローン病の疫学分析と2032年までの予測

クローン病（CD）は炎症性腸疾患（IBD）の一種であり、消化管の慢性炎症が特徴で、腹痛、激しい下痢、疲労、体重減少、栄養不良を引き起こします。最も一般的には、小腸の末端（回腸）が大腸の始まりと合流する部分に発症します。クローン病による炎症は、人によって消化管の異なる部位に及ぶことがあり、最も一般的なのは小腸です。この炎症は多くの場合、腸の深層にまで広がります。

男性も女性も罹患する可能性があり、年齢を問わず発症しますが、CDは女性や若年層でより多くみられます。食事やストレスがCDを悪化させることはありますが、病気の原因にはなりません。最近の調査では、遺伝、遺伝的要因、環境要因がCDの発症に関与していることが示唆されています。クローン病は痛みと衰弱を伴い、時には生命を脅かす合併症を引き起こすこともあります。クローン病の炎症は腸に深刻な瘢痕を残し、腸の一部を狭くします。クローン病の治療法は確立されていませんが、治療によって症状や徴候を大幅に軽減し、長期的な寛解や炎症の治癒をもたらすことも可能です。治療により、多くのクローン病患者が良好な機能を発揮できるようになります。

主要8ヶ国市場では、クローン病と診断された患者数は、2022年の118,885例から2032年には122,175例に増加し、年間成長率（AGR）は0.28％になると予想されています。2032年には、米国が68,815例と主要8ヶ国市場の中で最も多く、フランスは4,560例と最も少ないと予想されます。GlobalDataの疫学者は、CDと診断される偶発症患者数の増加は、各市場における人口動態の変化に起因するとしています。

主要8ヶ国市場では、CDと診断された有病者数は2022年の1,626,752例から2032年には1,695,580例に増加すると予測され、AGRは0.42%です。2032年には、米国が755,802例と主要8ヶ国市場で最も多く、日本は44,732例と最も少ないとみられています。

当レポートでは、主要8ヶ国市場（米国、フランス、ドイツ、イタリア、スペイン、英国、日本、カナダ）におけるクローン病の危険因子、併存疾患、世界および過去の疫学動向について概説し、クローン病の診断済み発症例と診断済み有病率に関する10年間の疫学予測などをまとめています。

目次

目次

第1章 クローン病：エグゼクティブサマリー

第2章 疫学

• 病気の背景
• 危険因子と併存疾患
• 世界的および歴史的動向
• 主要8ヶ国市場予測調査手法
• クローン病の疫学予測（2022年～2032年）
  • クローン病の診断済み症例件数
  • クローン病の診断済み発症例、年齢別
  • クローン病の診断済み発症例、性別
  • クローン病の診断済み罹患件数
  • クローン病の診断済み罹患症例、年齢別
  • クローン病の診断済み罹患症例、性別
  • クローン病の診断済み罹患症例、重症度別
  • 診断済み瘻孔形成性クローン病の罹患症例、重症度別
  • 寛解状態にある診断済みクローン病の罹患症例、重症度別
• 議論
  • 疫学予測の洞察
  • COVID-19の影響
  • 分析の限界
  • 分析の強み

第3章 付録

List of Tables

List of Tables

• Table 1: Summary of newly added data types
• Table 2: Summary of updated data types
• Table 3: Risk factors and comorbidities for CD

List of Figures

List of Figures

• Figure 1: 8MM, diagnosed incident cases of CD, both sexes, N, all ages, 2022 and 2032
• Figure 2: 8MM, diagnosed prevalent cases of CD, both sexes, N, all ages, 2022 and 2032
• Figure 3: 8MM, diagnosed incidence of CD, men and women, cases per 100,000 population, all ages, 2022
• Figure 4: 8MM, diagnosed prevalence of CD, men and women, %, all ages, 2022
• Figure 5: 8MM, sources used and not used to forecast the diagnosed incident cases of CD
• Figure 6: 8MM, sources used and not used to forecast the diagnosed prevalent cases of CD
• Figure 7: 8MM, diagnosed incident cases of CD, N, both sexes, all ages, 2022
• Figure 8: 8MM, diagnosed incident cases of CD by age, N, both sexes, 2022
• Figure 9: 8MM, diagnosed incident cases of CD by sex, N, all ages, 2022
• Figure 10: 8MM, diagnosed prevalent cases of CD, N, both sexes, all ages, 2022
• Figure 11: 8MM, diagnosed prevalent cases of CD by age, N, both sexes, 2022
• Figure 12: 8MM, diagnosed prevalent cases of CD by sex, N, all ages, 2022
• Figure 13: 8MM, diagnosed prevalent cases of CD by severity, N, both sexes, ages <18 years, 2022
• Figure 14: 8MM, diagnosed prevalent cases of CD by severity, N, both sexes, ages ≥18 years, 2022
• Figure 15: 8MM, diagnosed prevalent cases of fistulizing CD by severity, N, both sexes, ages <18 years, 2022
• Figure 16: 8MM, diagnosed prevalent cases of fistulizing CD by severity, N, both sexes, ages ≥18 years, 2022
• Figure 17: 8MM, diagnosed prevalent cases of CD in remission by severity, N, both sexes, ages <18 years, 2022
• Figure 18: 8MM, diagnosed prevalent cases of CD in remission by severity, N, both sexes, ages ≥18 years, 2022

Abstract

Crohn's disease (CD) is a type of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) characterized by chronic inflammation of the gastrointestinal tract, which can lead to abdominal pain, severe diarrhea, fatigue, weight loss, and malnutrition. It most commonly affects the end of the small intestine (the ileum) where it joins the beginning of the colon. Inflammation caused by Crohn's disease can involve different areas of the digestive tract in different people, most commonly the small intestine. This inflammation often spreads into the deeper layers of the bowel (Crohn's and Colitis Foundation of America, 2014; Mayo Clinic, 2022).

Men and women can both be affected, and the disease can occur at any age, but CD is more prevalent among women and in the young age population. Diet and stress may aggravate CD, but do not cause the disease. Recent research suggests hereditary, genetic, and environmental factors contribute to the development of CD (National Health Service, 2021a). Crohn's disease can be both painful and debilitating, and sometimes may lead to life-threatening complications (Mayo Clinic, 2022). Inflammation in CD can result in severe scarring and narrowing of parts of the bowel. There's no known cure for Crohn's disease, but therapies can greatly reduce its signs and symptoms and even bring about long-term remission and healing of inflammation. With treatment, many people with Crohn's disease can function well (National Health Service, 2021a; Mayo Clinic, 2022).

In the 8MM, the diagnosed incident cases of CD are expected to increase from 118,885 cases in 2022 to 122,175 cases in 2032, at an annual growth rate (AGR) of 0.28%. In 2032, the US will have the highest number of diagnosed incident cases of CD in the 8MM, with 68,815 cases, and France will have the fewest diagnosed incident cases of CD with 4,560 cases. GlobalData epidemiologists attribute the increase in the diagnosed incident cases of CD to changes in population dynamics in each market.

In the 8MM, the diagnosed prevalent cases of CD are expected to increase from 1,626,752 cases in 2022 to 1,695,580 cases in 2032, at an AGR of 0.42%. In 2032, the US will have the highest number of diagnosed prevalent cases of CD in the 8MM, with 755,802 cases, and Japan will have the fewest diagnosed prevalent cases of CD with 44,732 cases. GlobalData epidemiologists attribute the increase in the diagnosed prevalent cases of CD to changes in population dynamics in each market.

Scope

This report provides an overview of the risk factors, comorbidities, and the global and historical epidemiological trends for CD in the eight major markets (8MM: US, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK, Japan, and Canada). The report includes a 10-year epidemiology forecast for the diagnosed incident cases and diagnosed prevalent cases of CD. The diagnosed incident cases and diagnosed prevalent cases of CD are segmented by age (for all ages in 10-year age groups for ages 0-9 years up to 80 years and older), and sex. The report also provides the diagnosed prevalent cases of fistulizing CD as well as diagnosed prevalent cases of CD in remission in each of the severity segments. This epidemiology forecast for CD is supported by historical data obtained from peer-reviewed articles and population-based studies. The forecast methodology was kept consistent across the 8MM to allow for a meaningful comparison of the forecast incident and prevalent cases of CD across these markets.

Reasons to Buy

The CD epidemiology series will allow you to -

• Develop business strategies by understanding the trends shaping and driving the global CD market.
• Quantify patient populations in the global CD market to improve product design, pricing, and launch plans.
• Organize sales and marketing efforts by identifying the age groups that present the best opportunities for CD therapeutics in each of the markets covered.

Table of Contents

Table of Contents

1 Crohn's Disease: Executive Summary

• 1.1 Catalyst
• 1.2 Related reports
• 1.3 Upcoming reports

2 Epidemiology

• 2.1 Disease background
• 2.2 Risk factors and comorbidities
• 2.3 Global and historical trends
• 2.4 8MM forecast methodology
  • 2.4.1 Sources
  • 2.4.2 Forecast assumptions and methods
  • 2.4.3 Forecast assumptions and methods: diagnosed incident cases of CD
  • 2.4.4 Forecast assumptions and methods: diagnosed prevalent cases of CD
  • 2.4.5 Forecast assumptions and methods: diagnosed prevalent cases of CD by severity, diagnosed prevalent cases of fistulizing CD by severity, and diagnosed prevalent cases of CD in remission by severity
• 2.5 Epidemiological forecast for Crohn's disease (2022-32)
  • 2.5.1 Diagnosed incident cases of CD
  • 2.5.2 Age-specific diagnosed incident cases of CD
  • 2.5.3 Sex-specific diagnosed incident cases of CD
  • 2.5.4 Diagnosed prevalent cases of CD
  • 2.5.5 Age-specific diagnosed prevalent cases of CD
  • 2.5.6 Sex-specific diagnosed prevalent cases of CD
  • 2.5.7 Diagnosed prevalent cases of CD by severity
  • 2.5.8 Diagnosed prevalent cases of fistulizing CD by severity
  • 2.5.9 Diagnosed prevalent cases of CD in remission by severity
• 2.6 Discussion
  • 2.6.1 Epidemiological forecast insight
  • 2.6.2 COVID-19 impact
  • 2.6.3 Limitations of the analysis
  • 2.6.4 Strengths of the analysis

3 Appendix

• 3.1 Bibliography
• 3.2 Primary Research - Prescriber Survey
• 3.3 About the Authors
  • 3.3.1 Epidemiologist
  • 3.3.2 Reviewers
  • 3.3.3 Vice President of Disease Analysis and Intelligence
  • 3.3.4 Global Head and EVP of Healthcare Operations and Strategy
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