心房細動市場：市場規模および動向レポート：疫学、疾患管理、パイプライン分析、競合評価、アンメットニーズ、臨床試験戦略、2032年までの予測

主要8ヶ国の心房細動の市場規模は、2022年に145億3,000万米ドルとなりました。米国は心房細動人口が多いこと、新規経口抗凝固薬（NOACs）の早期採用、心房細動治療薬の高価格などにより、世界全体の売上高の大半を占め、107億5,000万米ドル（74%）に寄与しています。心房細動市場はCAGRで-1.3%で減少し、2032年には約128億米ドルになると予測されています。

当レポートでは、主要8ヶ国の心房細動市場について調査し、市場の概要とともに、疫学動向、パイプライン分析、アンメットニーズ、臨床試験戦略、2032年までの予測などを提供しています。

目次

目次

第1章 心房細動：エグゼクティブサマリー

第2章 イントロダクション

第3章 病気の概要

• 病因学と病態生理学
• 分類

第4章 疫学

第5章 疾病管理

• 診断と治療の概要
• 疾病管理に関するKOLの洞察

第6章 競争力の評価

• 概要

第7章 アンメットニーズと機会の評価

第8章 研究開発戦略

• 概要
• 臨床試験の設計

第9章 パイプラインの評価

• 概要
• 臨床開発中の有望な薬剤

第10章 パイプラインの評価分析

• 概要
• 競争力のある評価

第11章 現在および将来の参入企業

第12章 市場の展望

• 世界市場
• 米国
• EU5ヶ国
• 日本
• カナダ

第13章 付録

List of Tables

List of Tables

• Table 1: Atrial fibrillation: key metrics in the 8MM
• Table 2: Common cardiac and non-cardiac causes of AF
• Table 3: Classification of AF
• Table 4: Risk factors and comorbidities for AF
• Table 5: CHADS2 index for stroke risk assessment
• Table 6: CHA2DS2-VASc index for stroke risk assessment
• Table 7: Treatment guidelines for atrial fibrillation
• Table 8: Atrial fibrillation market - global drivers and barriers, 2022-32
• Table 9: Key events impacting sales for atrial fibrillation in the US, 2022-32
• Table 10: Atrial fibrillation market - drivers and barriers in the US, 2022-32
• Table 11: Key events impacting sales for atrial fibrillation in the 5EU, 2022-32
• Table 12: Atrial fibrillation market - drivers and barriers in the 5EU, 2022-32
• Table 13: Key events impacting sales for atrial fibrillation in Japan, 2022-32
• Table 14: Atrial fibrillation market - drivers and barriers in Japan, 2022-32
• Table 15: Key events impacting sales for atrial fibrillation in Canada, 2022-32
• Table 16: Atrial fibrillation market - drivers and barriers in Canada, 2022-32
• Table 17: High-prescribing physicians (non-KOLs) surveyed, by country

List of Figures

List of Figures

• Figure 1: Global sales forecast by country for atrial fibrillation in 2022 and 2032
• Figure 2: Analysis of the company portfolio gap in atrial fibrillation during the forecast period
• Figure 3: Competitive assessment of the pipeline anticoagulant drugs benchmarked against the current SOC
• Figure 4: Competitive assessment of the pipeline drugs for pharmacological cardioversion benchmarked against the SOC
• Figure 5: 8MM, diagnosed prevalence of AF (%), men and women, ages ≥40 years, 2022
• Figure 6: 8MM, sources used and not used to forecast the diagnosed prevalent cases of AF
• Figure 7: 8MM, sources used to forecast the diagnosed prevalent cases of AF by temporal pattern of arrhythmia
• Figure 8: 8MM, sources used to forecast the diagnosed prevalent cases of AF by CHADS2 stroke risk score
• Figure 9: 8MM, sources used to forecast the diagnosed prevalent cases of AF by CHA2DS2 - VASc score in men
• Figure 10: 8MM, sources used to forecast the diagnosed prevalent cases of AF by CHA2DS2 - VASc score in women
• Figure 11: 8MM, sources used to forecast the diagnosed prevalent cases of AF with/without moderate-to-severe mitral stenosis and/or an artificial (mechanical) heart valve
• Figure 12: 8MM, sources used to forecast the diagnosed prevalent cases of AF with CKD
• Figure 13: 8MM, sources used to forecast the diagnosed prevalent cases of AF with major bleeding risk by HAS-BLED score
• Figure 14: 8MM, sources used to forecast the diagnosed prevalent cases of AF admitted to the ED
• Figure 15: 8MM, sources used to forecast the diagnosis rate of AF
• Figure 16: 8MM, total prevalent cases of AF, N, both sexes, ages ≥40 years, 2022
• Figure 17: 8MM, diagnosed prevalent cases of AF, N, both sexes, ages ≥40 years, 2022
• Figure 18: 8MM, diagnosed prevalent cases of AF by age, N, both sexes, 2022
• Figure 19: 8MM, diagnosed prevalent cases of AF by sex, N, ages ≥40 years, 2022
• Figure 20: 8MM, diagnosed prevalent cases of AF by temporal pattern of arrhythmia, N, both sexes, ages ≥40 years, 2022
• Figure 21: 8MM, diagnosed prevalent cases of AF by CHADS2 stroke risk score, N, both sexes, ages ≥40 years, 2022
• Figure 22: 8MM, diagnosed prevalent cases of AF by CHA2DS2 - VASc stroke risk score in men, N, men, ages ≥40 years, 2022
• Figure 23: 8MM, diagnosed prevalent cases of AF by CHA2DS2 - VASc stroke risk score in women, N, women, ages ≥40 years, 2022
• Figure 24: 8MM, diagnosed prevalent cases of AF with and without moderate-to-severe mitral stenosis and/or an artificial (mechanical) heart valve, N, both sexes, ≥40 years, 2022
• Figure 25: 8MM, diagnosed prevalent cases of AF with CKD by stage, N, both sexes, ages ≥40 years, 2022
• Figure 26: 8MM, diagnosed prevalent cases of AF by HAS-BLED score, N, both sexes, ages ≥40 years, 2022
• Figure 27: 8MM, diagnosed prevalent cases of AF admitted to ED, N, both sexes, ages ≥40 years, 2022
• Figure 28: General treatment algorithm for stroke prevention in AF
• Figure 29: CCS guideline recommendations for choosing an anticoagulant
• Figure 30: General treatment algorithm for long-term ventricular rate control in AF patients
• Figure 31: Treatment algorithm for the maintenance of sinus rhythm in AF patients
• Figure 32: Unmet needs and opportunities in AF
• Figure 33: Overview of the development pipeline in atrial fibrillation
• Figure 34: Key late-stage trials for the promising pipeline agents that GlobalData expects to be licensed for atrial fibrillation in the 8MM during the forecast period
• Figure 35: Competitive assessment of the marketed and pipeline drugs for anticoagulation benchmarked against the SOC
• Figure 36: Competitive assessment of the marketed and pipeline drugs for pharmacological cardioversion benchmarked against the SOC
• Figure 37: Analysis of the company portfolio gap in AF during the forecast period
• Figure 38: Global (8MM) sales forecast by country for atrial fibrillation in 2022 and 2032
• Figure 39: Sales forecast by class for atrial fibrillation in the US in 2022 and 2032
• Figure 40: Sales forecast by class for atrial fibrillation in the 5EU in 2022 and 2032
• Figure 41: Sales forecast by class for atrial fibrillation in Japan in 2022 and 2032
• Figure 42: Sales forecast by class for atrial fibrillation in Canada in 2022 and 2032

Abstract

This report covers the 8MM (US, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK, Japan, Canada) and provides an Excel-based forecast model for the Atrial Fibrillation (AF) market through 2032.

In 2022, GlobalData estimated that the global AF market reached $14.53 billion across the 8MM. The US makes up the majority of total global sales, contributing $10.75 billion (74%) due to the large prevalent AF population in the US, early adoption of the new oral anticoagulants (NOACs), and higher prices for AF medications in this market. GlobalData anticipates that the AF market will decline at a negative compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 1.3%, to be worth approximately $12.8 billion by 2032. The US is expected to maintain its position as the market leader in 2032, contributing 74% towards the total global sales.

The major growth drivers in the AF market during the forecast period include the following:

• A total of five pipeline products, including four anticoagulants and one cardioversion agent, will launch during the forecast period, each of which will have a higher annual cost of therapy (ACOT) when compared with the cost of generic NOACs and the commonly used pharmacological agents, respectively.
• Factor XI (FXI)/FXIa inhibitors, including abelacimab, asundexian, and milvexian, will be welcomed by the many AF patients who are not treated with the currently available anticoagulants due to bleeding concerns.
• In the 8MM, the number of 12-month total prevalent cases of AF treated is expected to increase during the forecast period, which will drive sales.
• Continued increases in AF awareness will improve diagnosis rates.

The major barriers to growth in the AF market during the forecast period include the following:

• All four NOACs will face generic erosion as their patents expire over the forecast period.
• The AF market is crowded with inexpensive generic products for the maintenance of rate and rhythm control. The high use of these products is expected to continue throughout the forecast period, presenting a stiff barrier of entry for pipeline drugs.
• High cost of FXI/FXIa inhibitors compared to the NOAC generics will likely hinder patient uptake.

Key Highlights

• In 2022, GlobalData estimated that the global AF market reached $14.53 billion across the 8MM, and anticipates that it will decline at a negative compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 1.3%, to be worth approximately $12.8 billion by 2032.
• This decline in sales is due to the fact that novel oral anticoagulants (NOACs) will face generic erosion as their patents expire over the forecast period. In addition, the high cost of upcoming FXI/FXIa inhibitors compared to the NOAC generics will likely hinder patient uptake.

Scope

• Overview of AF, including epidemiology, symptoms, diagnosis, and disease management.
• Annualized AF therapeutics market revenue, cost of therapy per patient, and treatment usage patterns forecast from 2022 to 2032.
• Key topics covered include strategic competitor assessment, market characterization, unmet needs, clinical trial mapping, and implications of these factors for the AF therapeutics market.
• Pipeline analysis: comprehensive data assessing emerging trends and mechanisms of action under development for AF treatment. The most promising candidates in late-stage development are profiled.
• Analysis of the current and future market competition in the global AF therapeutics market. Insightful review of the key industry drivers, restraints and challenges. Each trend is independently researched to provide qualitative analysis of its implications.

Reasons to Buy

• Develop and design your in-licensing and out-licensing strategies through a review of pipeline products and technologies, and by identifying the companies with the most robust pipeline.
• Develop business strategies by understanding the trends shaping and driving the 8MM AF therapeutics market.
• Drive revenues by understanding the key trends, innovative products and technologies, market segments, and companies likely to impact the 7MM AF therapeutics market in the future.
• Formulate effective sales and marketing strategies by understanding the competitive landscape and by analyzing the performance of various competitors.
• Identify emerging players with potentially strong product portfolios and create effective counter-strategies to gain a competitive advantage.
• Organize your sales and marketing efforts by identifying the market categories and segments that present maximum opportunities for consolidations, investments and strategic partnerships.

Table of Contents

Table of Contents

1 Atrial Fibrillation: Executive Summary

• 1.1 AF market will decline at a negative CAGR of 1.3%
• 1.2 Bayer and Bristol Myers Squibb will continue to lead the AF market over the forecast period
• 1.3 While outlook in AF improves, opportunities remain to improve patient outcomes
• 1.4 Bayer's FXIa inhibitor asundexian will be a key driver of growth
• 1.5 What do physicians think?

2 Introduction

• 2.1 Catalyst
• 2.2 Related reports
• 2.3 Upcoming reports

3 Disease Overview

• 3.1 Etiology and pathophysiology
• 3.2 Classification

4 Epidemiology

• 4.1 Disease Background
• 4.2 Risk Factors and Comorbidities
• 4.3 Global and Historical Trends
• 4.4 8MM Forecast Methodology
• 4.5 Epidemiological Forecast for atrial fibrillation
• 4.6 Discussion

5 Disease Management

• 5.1 Diagnosis and treatment overview
• 5.2 KOL insights on disease management

6 Competitive Assessment

• 6.1 Overview

7 Unmet Needs and Opportunity Assessment

• 7.1 Overview
• 7.2 Development of anticoagulants with reduced risk of bleeding
• 7.3 Therapies for atrial fibrillation patients with ESRD
• 7.4 Safer antiarrhythmic drugs for the maintenance of sinus rhythm
• 7.5 Effective and rapid-acting cardioversion drugs

8 R&D Strategies

• 8.1 Overview
• 8.2 Clinical trials design

9 Pipeline Assessment

• 9.1 Overview
• 9.2 Promising drugs in clinical development

10 Pipeline Valuation Analysis

• 10.1 Overview
• 10.2 Competitive assessment

11 Current and Future Players

• 11.1 Overview
• 11.2 Deal-making trends

12 Market Outlook

• 12.1 Global markets
• 12.2 US
• 12.3 5EU
• 12.4 Japan
• 12.5 Canada

13 Appendix

• 13.1 Bibliography
• 13.2 Abbreviations
• 13.3 Methodology
• 13.4 Primary research - KOLs interviewed for this report
• 13.5 Primary research - prescriber survey
• 13.6 About the Authors
• Contact Us