潰瘍性大腸炎の疫学分析と予測：2021年～2031年

主要8ヶ国において、潰瘍性大腸炎の診断済み発症件数は、2021年の160,122例から2031年には168,467例に増加し、年間成長率（AGR）は0.52％と予測されています。2031年には、米国が104,795例と主要8ヶ国の中で最も多くの潰瘍性大腸炎の診断済み発症件数となっており、フランスは2,972例と最も少なくなると予想されます。

当レポートでは、主要8市場（米国、フランス、ドイツ、イタリア、スペイン、英国、日本、カナダ）における潰瘍性大腸炎の危険因子、併存疾患、世界および過去の疫学動向について概説し、潰瘍性大腸炎の診断済み発症例と診断済み有病率に関する10年間の疫学予測などをまとめています。

目次

目次

第1章 潰瘍性大腸炎：エグゼクティブサマリー

第2章 疫学

• 疾患の背景
• 危険因子と合併症
• 世界的および歴史的動向
• 主要8ヶ国予測調査手法
• 潰瘍性大腸炎の疫学的予測（2021年～2031年）
  • 潰瘍性大腸炎の診断済み症例件数
  • 潰瘍性大腸炎の年齢別診断済み発症例
  • 潰瘍性大腸炎の性別診断済み症例
  • 潰瘍性大腸炎の診断済み罹患症例
  • 潰瘍性大腸炎の年齢別診断済み罹患症例
  • 潰瘍性大腸炎の性別診断済み罹患症例
  • 潰瘍性大腸炎の重症度別診断済み罹患症例
  • 嚢炎例と術後潰瘍性大腸炎例
  • 抗TNF応答性別診断済み潰瘍性大腸炎の罹患症例
• 議論
  • 疫学的予測の洞察
  • COVID-19の影響
  • 分析の限界
  • 分析の強み

第3章 付録

List of Tables

List of Tables

• Table 1: Summary of newly added data types
• Table 2: Summary of updated data types
• Table 3: Risk factors and comorbid conditions associated with UC

List of Figures

List of Figures

• Figure 1: 8MM, diagnosed incident cases of UC, both sexes, N, all ages, 2021 and 2031
• Figure 2: 8MM, diagnosed prevalent cases of UC, both sexes, N, all ages, 2021 and 2031
• Figure 3: 8MM, diagnosed incidence of UC (cases per 100,000 population), men and women, all ages, 2021
• Figure 4: 8MM, diagnosed prevalence of UC (%), men and women, all ages, 2021
• Figure 5: 8MM, sources used and not used to forecast the diagnosed incident cases of UC
• Figure 6: 8MM, sources used and not used to forecast the diagnosed prevalent cases of UC
• Figure 7: 8MM, sources used to forecast the diagnosed prevalent cases of UC by severity
• Figure 8: 8MM, sources used to forecast the post-operative UC cases
• Figure 9: 8MM, sources used to forecast the pouchitis cases among the diagnosed prevalent cases of UC
• Figure 10: 8MM, sources used to forecast the diagnosed prevalent cases of UC by anti-TNF responsiveness
• Figure 11: 8MM, diagnosed incident cases of UC, N, both sexes, all ages, 2021
• Figure 12: 8MM, diagnosed incident cases of UC by age group, N, both sexes, 2021
• Figure 13: 8MM, diagnosed incident cases of UC by sex, N, all ages, 2021
• Figure 14: 8MM, diagnosed prevalent cases of UC, N, both sexes, all ages, 2021
• Figure 15: 8MM, diagnosed prevalent cases of UC by age group, N, both sexes, 2021
• Figure 16: 8MM, diagnosed prevalent cases of UC by sex, N, all ages, 2021
• Figure 17: 8MM, diagnosed prevalent cases of UC by severity, N, both sexes, ages <18 years, 2021
• Figure 18: 8MM, diagnosed prevalent cases of UC by severity, N, both sexes, ages ≥18 years, 2021
• Figure 19: 8MM, pouchitis cases and post-operative UC cases, N, both sexes, all ages, 2021
• Figure 20: 8MM, diagnosed prevalent cases of UC by anti-TNF responsiveness, N, both sexes, all ages, 2021

Ulcerative colitis (UC) is an inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) characterized by chronic inflammation and ulcers (sores) in the large intestine, also called the colon and rectum. The inflammation usually begins in the rectum and lower colon, but may also spread continuously to involve the entire colon. In UC, ulcers develop on the surface of the bowel lining; these may bleed and produce mucus (Mayo Clinic, 2022). The symptoms of UC vary from person to person and may include diarrhea with blood or pus, passing blood with stool, abdominal pain and cramping, and tenesmus or urgency to defecate (National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases, 2020; Mayo Clinic, 2022). UC can occur at any age, although most people are diagnosed in their mid-thirties. Men and women are equally likely to be affected, but older men are more likely to be diagnosed than older women. UC can affect people of any racial or ethnic group. Genes, abnormal immune reactions, the microbiome, diet, stress, and the environment have all been suggested as triggers, but there is no definite evidence that any one of these factors is the cause of UC (National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases, 2020; Crohn's and Colitis Foundation, 2022).

In the 8MM, the diagnosed incident cases of UC are expected to increase from 160,122 cases in 2021 to 168,467 cases in 2031, at an annual growth rate (AGR) of 0.52%. In 2031, the US will have the highest number of diagnosed incident cases of UC in the 8MM, with 104,795 cases, and France will have the fewest diagnosed incident cases of UC with 2,972 cases. GlobalData epidemiologists attribute the increase in the diagnosed incident cases of UC to changes in population dynamics in each market.

In the 8MM, the diagnosed prevalent cases of UC are expected to increase from 1,946,428 cases in 2021 to 2,069,770 cases in 2031, at an AGR of 0.63%. In 2031, the US will have the highest number of diagnosed prevalent cases of UC in the 8MM, with 655,317 cases, and Canada will have the fewest diagnosed prevalent cases of UC with 91,186 cases. GlobalData epidemiologists attribute the increase in the diagnosed prevalent cases of UC to changes in population dynamics in each market.

Scope

• This report provides an overview of the risk factors, comorbidities, and the global and historical epidemiological trends for UC in the eight major markets (8MM: US, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK, Japan, and Canada). The report includes a 10-year epidemiology forecast for the diagnosed incident cases and diagnosed prevalent cases of UC. The diagnosed incident cases and diagnosed prevalent cases of UC are segmented by age (for all ages in 10-year age groups for ages 0-9 years up to 80 years and older), and sex. The diagnosed prevalent cases of UC are also segmented by severity (mild-moderate, moderate-severe, and severe-fulminant) and anti-tumor necrosis factor (TNF)-responsiveness (TNF-responding, and TNF-non-responding). The report also provides the proportion of diagnosed prevalent cases of UC that develop pouchitis and post-operative UC. This epidemiology forecast for UC is supported by historical data obtained from peer-reviewed articles and population-based studies. The forecast methodology was kept consistent across the 8MM to allow for a meaningful comparison of the forecast incident and prevalent cases of UC across these markets.

Reasons to Buy

The UC epidemiology series will allow you to -

• Develop business strategies by understanding the trends shaping and driving the global UC market.
• Quantify patient populations in the global UC market to improve product design, pricing, and launch plans.
• Organize sales and marketing efforts by identifying the age groups that present the best opportunities for UC therapeutics in each of the markets covered.

Table of Contents

Table of Contents

1 Ulcerative Colitis: Executive Summary

• 1.1 Catalyst
• 1.2 Related reports
• 1.3 Upcoming reports

2 Epidemiology

• 2.1 Disease background
• 2.2 Risk factors and comorbidities
• 2.3 Global and historical trends
• 2.4 8MM forecast methodology
  • 2.4.1 Sources
  • 2.4.2 Forecast assumptions and methods
  • 2.4.3 Diagnosed incident cases of UC
  • 2.4.4 Forecast assumptions and methods: diagnosed prevalent cases of UC
  • 2.4.5 Diagnosed prevalent cases of UC by severity
  • 2.4.6 Post-operative UC cases
  • 2.4.7 Pouchitis in diagnosed prevalent cases of UC
  • 2.4.8 Diagnosed prevalent cases of UC by anti-TNF-responsiveness
• 2.5 Epidemiological forecast for UC (2021-31)
  • 2.5.1 Diagnosed incident cases of UC
  • 2.5.2 Age-specific diagnosed incident cases of UC
  • 2.5.3 Sex-specific diagnosed incident cases of UC
  • 2.5.4 Diagnosed prevalent cases of UC
  • 2.5.5 Age-specific diagnosed prevalent cases of UC
  • 2.5.6 Sex-specific diagnosed prevalent cases of UC
  • 2.5.7 Diagnosed prevalent cases of UC by severity
  • 2.5.8 Pouchitis cases and post-operative UC cases
  • 2.5.9 Diagnosed prevalent cases of UC by anti-TNF responsiveness
• 2.6 Discussion
  • 2.6.1 Epidemiological forecast insight
  • 2.6.2 COVID-19 impact
  • 2.6.3 Limitations of the analysis
  • 2.6.4 Strengths of the analysis

3 Appendix

• 3.1 Bibliography
• 3.2 Primary research - prescriber survey
• 3.3 About the authors
  • 3.3.1 Epidemiologist
  • 3.3.2 Reviewers
  • 3.3.3 Vice President of Disease Analysis and Intelligence
  • 3.3.4 Global Head and EVP of Healthcare Operations and Strategy
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