世界経済（2022年～2023年）：景気後退かソフトランディングか

世界の景気後退への懸念は、経済成長率やその他の高頻度のパラメーターに弱さが見られるようになり、このところ複合的になってきています。露・ウクライナ戦争は世界経済の感情を弱め、インフレ抑制のための中央銀行の積極的な利上げも景気後退の懸念を煽っています。

当レポートでは、世界の世界経済について調査し、市場の概要とともに、戦略的インペラティブ、成長の機会などを提供しています。

目次

戦略的インペラティブ

• 成長がますます困難になるのはなぜか
• 戦略的インペラティブ
• 世界のマクロ経済環境に対する上位3つの戦略的インペラティブの影響
• 成長の機会が成長パイプラインエンジンを加速させる

成長の機会分析

• 成長の促進要因と抑制要因
• 2022年～2023年の世界経済見通し

世界経済の見通し

• GDP成長見通し、2022年～2023年
• 世界のGDP成長の主な制約、2022年～2023年
• シナリオ分析：仮定、2022年～2023年
• 世界のGDP成長見通し、シナリオ別
• 景気後退の期待に逆らう経済
• 四半期別GDP成長率
• 過去の景気後退/景気後退サイクルとの比較
• 不況のないシナリオの前提

主要経済の見通し

• シナリオ別GDP成長見通し：米国
• シナリオ別GDP成長見通し：ユーロ圏
• シナリオ別GDP成長見通し：ユーロ圏
• シナリオ別GDP成長見通し：中国

高頻度経済指標の見通し

• 高頻度経済指標、世界
• 高頻度経済指標、米国、ユーロ圏、ドイツ
• 高頻度経済指標、英国、中国、インド

業界への影響

メガ動向と景気後退後の影響

• 変化するマクロ経済状況下でのメガ動向の進化
• 景気後退/景気後退後の世界のマクロ経済動向

成長の機会領域

• 成長の機会1：景気後退後の機会を活用しながら、景気後退/不況時の回復力の向上を達成する
• 図表一覧
• 免責事項

Imperative to Realign Growth Strategies in the face of Rapidly Evolving Global Economic Sentiment

Fears of a global recession have been compounding in the recent past, with emerging signs of weakness in economic growth and other high-frequency parameters. The Russo-Ukrainian war has weakened global economic sentiment, with aggressive central bank interest rate hikes to curtail inflation also fueling recessionary fears.

To provide decision-makers with improved insight into global economic conditions over the next few months, Frost & Sullivan has developed this thought-leadership piece, delving into the likelihood of a global recession or soft landing, while building visioning scenarios and highlighting growth expectations.

This analysis examines the global economic outlook from a baseline, aggressive, and critical perspective, with various scenario expectations based on Russian gas supply to the EU, global monetary policy, China's zero-COVID-19 policy, and COVID-19 caseload, all of which are critical factors in influencing global economic growth.

While some regions appear to be at a higher risk of a downturn, some economies may be resilient. This research service explores scenario conditions and key growth drivers for major economies. High-frequency indicators, such as inflation and unemployment, were assessed for select economies. The study analyzes the impact of a downturn/recession across the energy, automotive, and healthcare sectors, examining recession exposure versus resilience tendencies of subsectors while correlating global macroeconomic trends to industry impact.

The pandemic saw the emergence and boom of supply chain diversification strategies, the digital economy, the hybrid working model, and the clean energy transition. The study also examines the outlook for these Mega Trends, in the context of the baseline and critical scenarios, and highlights post-downturn trends, which will enable businesses to strategize for emerging growth opportunities.

Key Issues Addressed:

• Is a near-term global recession a strong possibility or just market hype?

• Which regions are more exposed to recession risks and which regions are more insulated?

• What are the critical factors influencing the economic outlook over the next 12-16 months?

• How will the US economy perform in the face of aggressive interest rate hikes?

• What is the outlook for the Euro Area, in the context of Russian gas supply risks and surging inflation?

• How will China's slowdown impact the global economy?

• What is India's expected inflation rate for the next fiscal year?

• How will the O&G and renewables sectors perform in light of evolving macroeconomic dynamics?

• What is the recession exposure versus resilience of light vehicles and electric vehicles?

• What post-downturn trends should businesses capitalize on?

Table of Contents

Strategic Imperatives

• Why Is It Increasingly Difficult to Grow?
• The Strategic Imperative 8™
• The Impact of the Top 3 Strategic Imperatives on the Global Macroeconomic Environment
• Growth Opportunities Fuel the Growth Pipeline Engine™

Growth Opportunity Analysis

• Growth Drivers and Restraints
• 2022-2023 Global Economic Outlook

Global Economic Outlook

• GDP Growth Outlook, 2022-2023
• Key Restraints to Global GDP Growth, 2022-2023
• 2022-2023 Scenario Analysis: Assumptions
• Global GDP Growth Outlook by Scenario
• Global GDP Growth Outlook by Scenario (Continued)
• Economies Defying Recessionary Expectations
• Quarterly GDP Growth
• Comparison Against Historic Recession/Downturn Cycles
• No-recession Scenario Assumptions

Key Economies Outlook

• GDP Growth Outlook by Scenario: the United States
• GDP Growth Outlook by Scenario: the United States (continued)
• GDP Growth Outlook by Scenario: the Euro Area
• GDP Growth Outlook by Scenario: the Euro Area
• GDP Growth Outlook by Scenario: China
• GDP Growth Outlook by Scenario: China (continued)

Outlook for High-Frequency Economic Indicators

• High-Frequency Economic Indicators, Global
• High-Frequency Economic Indicators, the US, Euro Area, and Germany
• High-Frequency Economic Indicators, the UK, China, and India

Industry Implications

• Recession-Exposed and Recession-Proof Industries
• Energy Industry Outlook
• Automotive Industry Outlook
• Healthcare Industry Outlook

Mega Trends and Post-Downturn Implications

• Evolution of Mega Trends Under Changing Macroeconomic Conditions
• Evolution of Mega Trends Under Changing Macroeconomic Conditions (continued)
• Post-Downturn/Recession Global Macroeconomic Trends

Growth Opportunity Universe

• Growth Opportunity 1: Achieving Improved Resilience During Downturn/Recession, While Capitalizing on Post-Downturn Opportunities
• Growth Opportunity 1: Achieving Improved Resilience During Downturn/Recession, While Capitalizing on Post-Downturn Opportunities (continued)
• List of Exhibits
• List of Exhibits (continued)
• Legal Disclaimer