欧米のPHEV/BEVのアフターマーケット：成長機会

2020年、欧州の自動車市場全体が22%のマイナス成長となる中、欧州の電気自動車の新規登録台数は前年比2倍となり、小売市場シェア10%のマイルストーンに到達しました。従来のICE自動車に代わる環境に優しい選択肢として、電気自動車の人気は高く、欧州ではすでに電気自動車の販売はピークを迎えているのではないかとの見方が広がっています。

当レポートでは、欧米のPHEV/BEVのアフターマーケットについて調査分析し、戦略的必須要件、成長環境、成長機会、国別成長機会分析等に関する情報を提供しています。

目次

戦略的必須要件

• 成長がますます困難になるのはなぜか？
• 戦略的必須要件 8（TM）
• 欧州のPHEV/BEVのアフターマーケットに対する上位3つの戦略的必須要件の影響
• 成長機会がGrowth Pipeline Engine (TM)を促進

調査範囲とセグメンテーション

• 分析の範囲
• セグメンテーション
• 成長の促進要因
• 成長の抑制要因
• 予測の前提条件

成長環境

• EV採用の障壁に対応する開発
• xEVアフターマーケットのデマンドポケット
• 2030年までに出現する数十億米ドル規模のEmobilityアフターマーケット
• 急成長しているバッテリーと充電エコシステムを攻略する方法は？
• 欧州における市場の可能性

成長機会1：電池寿命の管理

• 概要
• 活躍する企業
• コレクションとロジスティクス：The Reneos Consortium
• 再利用：Renault Advanced Battery Storage
• 再利用：Betteries、 ドイツ
• リサイクル：Accurec、 ドイツ
• リサイクル：Umicore、 ドイツ
• リサイクル：Nickelhuette Aue、 ドイツ

成長機会2：モバイルDC高速充電

• 成長機会2の概要：モバイルDC高速充電
• モバイル充電サービス：Surve Mobility、 ドイツ（旧充電器）
• モバイル充電製品およびサービス：L-Charge、 ロシア
• モバイル充電製品：Freewire Technologies、 米国(欧州で活躍)

成長機会3：モジュール式電池交換

• 成長機会3の概要：モジュール式電池交換
• モジュール式電池交換：Ample、 米国（欧州への進出予定）
• モジュール式電池交換：Power Swap、 スウェーデン

成長機会4：住宅電気自動車供給機器（家庭用充電器）の販売

• 成長機会4の概要：住宅EVSEの販売

成長機会5：交換部品の需要

• 成長機会5：アフターマーケットにおけるEVコンポーネントの交換需要

成長機会分析：フランス

• 主要な成長指標：フランス
• PHEV/BEV販売およびVIO：フランス
• PHEV/BEV分布：車両年齢別（フランス）
• 電化主導の成長機会の概要：フランス
• 収益予測分析：成長機会別（フランス）
• 交換部品の単位出荷：フランス
• 交換部品の収益の可能性：フランス
• 収益予測分析：コンポーネントタイプ別（フランス）

成長機会分析：ドイツ

成長機会分析：イタリア

成長機会分析：スペイン

成長機会分析：英国

成長機会分析：その他欧州

成長機会ユニバース

• 成長機会1：古いICE車とLCVのための電気パワートレインの回収
• 成長機会2：欧州の職場向けの半公共EV充電ソリューション
• 成長機会3：公共充電ネットワークにアクセスするためのソフトウェアイネーブラー

次のステップ

Battery Lifecycle Management and Charging Space to Spur Transformational Growth of Aftermarket Business Models

2020 turned out to be the much-anticipated inflection point for PHEV/BEV adoption in Europe. Car buyers here clearly warmed up to the concept of electric mobility in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic. In 2020, new electric car registrations in Europe doubled year-over-year to reach the 10% retail market share milestone even as the overall car market in Europe registered a degrowth of 22%. Such is the popularity of this ecofriendly alternative to the traditional ICE vehicles that it is widely believed that the sales of the latter may already have peaked in Europe. Extensive research by Frost & Sullivan (F&S) has led it to think that this slow-but-sure mainstreaming of electric mobility will be accompanied by the emergence of new growth opportunities in the battery lifecycle management and vehicle charging space. With the right strategic approach, traditional aftermarket participants can seek to leverage these nascent growth opportunities through new business models that will help them gain a foothold in the evolving battery and charging value chains.

Research Scope:

In terms of geography, the study separately discusses the erstwhile EU-5 markets of France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the UK. The study also discusses the other major markets in a separate cluster designated as "Rest of Europe."

The research discusses four key growth opportunities that hold the highest growth potential for prospective participants seeking early-mover advantage in these lucrative segments.

It discusses both qualitatively and quantitatively the key aspects of each growth opportunity and offers recommendations to prospective market entrants on how to play in these rapidly evolving segments.

The study also outlines the replacement component demand for 5 xEV-specific spare parts that F&S has identified through discussions with industry veterans.

Research Highlights:

The study aims to offer insights to stakeholders across the European light vehicle aftermarket value chain including, but not limited to:

Service providers active or contemplating investments in the space of battery end-of-life management and replenishment need-fulfillment for personal vehicles and shared mobility fleets.

Aftermarket component suppliers, distributors, retailers and end-channel workshops.

Key Issues Addressed:

• What is the anticipated overall electrification trajectory of the European light vehicle population from 2020 to 2030?

• What is the expected age mix of the European PHEV/BEV population between 2020 and 2030?

• What are the key impediments to electric vehicle adoption and how are various businesses addressing these concerns resulting in new aftermarket growth opportunities?

• What are the key growth drivers and restraints for these electrification-led growth opportunities?

• Which companies are the early movers in each of the growth opportunities discussed?

• What are the other long-term growth opportunities in the PHEV/BEV aftermarket?

• Which companies are capitalizing on these nascent growth opportunities and what is the way forward for prospective investors contemplating an entry into similar lines of business?

Table of Contents

Strategic Imperatives

• Why Is It Increasingly Difficult to Grow?
• The Strategic Imperative 8™
• The Impact of the Top Three Strategic Imperatives on the European PHEV/BEV Aftermarket
• Growth Opportunities Fuel the Growth Pipeline Engine™

Research Scope and Segmentation

• Scope of Analysis
• Segmentation
• Growth Drivers
• Growth Restraints
• Forecast Assumptions

Growth Environment

• Developments Addressing EV Adoption Barriers
• Demand Pockets in the xEV Aftermarket
• A Multibillion-dollar Emobility Aftermarket to Emerge by 2030
• How to Play the Fast-growing Battery and Charging Ecosystem?
• Market Potential in Europe

Growth Opportunity 1-Battery End-of-life Management

• Overview
• Overview (continued)
• Active Companies
• Collection and Logistics-The Reneos Consortium
• Repurposing-Renault Advanced Battery Storage
• Repurposing-Betteries, Germany
• Recycling-Accurec, Germany
• Recycling-Umicore, Belgium
• Recycling-Nickelhuette Aue, Germany

Growth Opportunity 2-Mobile DC Fast Charging

• Growth Opportunity 2 Overview-Mobile DC Fast Charging
• Growth Opportunity 2 Overview-Mobile DC Fast Charging (continued)
• Mobile Charging Services-Surve Mobility, Germany (Formerly Chargery)
• Mobile Charging Products and Services-L-Charge, Russia
• Mobile Charging Products-Freewire Technologies, US (Active in Europe)

Growth Opportunity 3-Modular Battery Swapping

• Growth Opportunity 3 Overview-Modular Battery Swapping
• Growth Opportunity 3 Overview-Modular Battery Swapping (continued)
• Modular Battery Swapping-Ample, US(Planned foray into Europe)
• Modular Battery Swapping-Power Swap, Sweden

Growth Opportunity 4-Sales of Residential Electric Vehicle Supply Equipment (Home Chargers)

• Growth Opportunity 4 Overview-Sales of Residential EVSE
• Growth Opportunity 4 Overview-Sales of Residential EVSE (continued)

Growth Opportunity 5-Replacement Components Demand

• Growth Opportunity 5-EV Component Replacement Demand in the Aftermarket

Growth Opportunity Analysis, France

• Key Growth Metrics, France
• PHEV/BEV Sales and VIO, France
• PHEV/BEV Distribution by Vehicle Age, France
• Electrification-led Growth Opportunities Overview, France
• Electrification-led Growth Opportunities Overview, France (continued)
• Revenue Forecast Analysis by Growth Opportunity, France
• Unit Shipment of Replacement Components, France
• Revenue Potential of Replacement Components, France
• Revenue Forecast Analysis by Component Type, France

Growth Opportunity Analysis, Germany

• Key Growth Metrics, Germany
• PHEV/BEV Sales and VIO, Germany
• PHEV/BEV Distribution by Vehicle Age, Germany
• Electrification-led Growth Opportunities Overview, Germany
• Electrification-led Growth Opportunities Overview, Germany (continued)
• Revenue Forecast Analysis by Growth Opportunity, Germany
• Unit Shipment of Replacement Components, Germany
• Revenue Potential of Replacement Components, Germany
• Revenue Forecast Analysis by Component Type, Germany

Growth Opportunity Analysis, Italy

• Key Growth Metrics, Italy
• PHEV/BEV Sales and VIO, Italy
• PHEV/BEV Distribution by Vehicle Age, Italy
• Electrification-led Growth Opportunities Overview, Italy
• Electrification-led Growth Opportunities Overview, Italy (continued)
• Revenue Forecast Analysis by Growth Opportunity, Italy
• Unit Shipment of Replacement Components, Italy
• Revenue Potential of Replacement Components, Italy
• Revenue Forecast Analysis by Component Type, Italy

Growth Opportunity Analysis, Spain

• Key Growth Metrics, Spain
• PHEV/BEV Sales and VIO, Spain
• PHEV/BEV Distribution by Vehicle Age, Spain
• Electrification-led Growth Opportunities Overview, Spain
• Electrification-led Growth Opportunities Overview, Spain (continued)
• Revenue Forecast Analysis by Growth Opportunity, Spain
• Unit Shipment of Replacement Components, Spain
• Revenue Potential of Replacement Components, Spain
• Revenue Forecast Analysis by Component Type, Spain

Growth Opportunity Analysis, UK

• Key Growth Metrics, UK
• PHEV/BEV Sales and VIO, UK
• PHEV/BEV Distribution by Vehicle Age, UK
• Electrification-led Growth Opportunities Overview, UK
• Electrification-led Growth Opportunities Overview, UK (continued)
• Revenue Forecast Analysis by Growth Opportunity, UK
• Unit Shipment of Replacement Components, UK
• Revenue Potential of Replacement Components, UK
• Revenue Forecast Analysis by Component Type, UK

Growth Opportunity Analysis, Rest of Europe

• Key Growth Metrics, Rest of Europe
• PHEV/BEV Sales and VIO, Rest of Europe
• PHEV/BEV Distribution by Vehicle Age, Rest of Europe
• Electrification-led Growth Opportunities Overview, Rest of Europe
• Electrification-led Growth Opportunities Overview, Rest of Europe (continued)
• Revenue Forecast Analysis by Growth Opportunity, Rest of Europe
• Unit Shipment of Replacement Components, Rest of Europe
• Revenue Potential of Replacement Components, Rest of Europe
• Revenue Forecast Analysis by Component Type, Rest of Europe

Growth Opportunity Universe

• Growth Opportunity 1-Electric Powertrain Retrofitment for Older ICE Cars and LCVs
• Growth Opportunity 1-Electric Powertrain Retrofitment for Older ICE Cars and LCVs (continued)
• Growth Opportunity 2-Semipublic EV Charging Solutions for the European Workplace
• Growth Opportunity 2-Semipublic EV Charging Solutions for the European Workplace (continued)
• Growth Opportunity 3-Software Enablers for Access to Public Charging Networks
• Growth Opportunity 3-Software Enablers for Access to Public Charging Networks (continued)

Next Steps

• Your Next Steps
• Why Frost, Why Now?
• List of Exhibits
• List of Exhibits (continued)
• List of Exhibits (continued)
• List of Exhibits (continued)
• List of Exhibits (continued)
• List of Exhibits (continued)
• List of Exhibits (continued)
• List of Exhibits (continued)
• Legal Disclaimer