電動航空機・eVTOLの将来像

世界の電動航空機・eVTOL (商用・自家用) の全体的な市場規模は、2021年から2050年の間に2,720億～7,250億ユーロの規模に達すると予測されます。

当レポートでは、世界の電動航空機およびeVTOL (電動垂直離着陸機) の市場について分析し、技術の概略や想定される活用方法、今後の技術開発・インフラ/規制整備・市場発展の可能性、主要メーカー20社のプロファイル、許認可プロセスと安全面での懸念への対応状況、今後の市場予測とシナリオ分析 (2050年まで)、といった情報を取りまとめてお届けいたします。

目次

第1章 イントロダクション

• 航空市場
• 電動航空機の概念
• 航空機の電動化とeVTOLの促進要因
  • コスト削減
  • 地方旅行市場
  • 排出削減
  • ノイズリダクション
  • アクセシビリティの向上
  • 経済発展

第2章 電動航空機とeVTOL

• 電動航空機
  • レトロフィット
  • 従来型デザイン
  • 新規デザイン
  • サイズと航続距離
  • バッテリー式と水素式
• eVTOL (電動垂直離着陸機)
  • 無翼マルチコプター
  • 固定翼
  • 傾斜翼および/またはプロペラ
• eVTOLに関するリスク評価
  • 認証
  • インフラ
  • 技術
  • オペレーション
  • 国民の意識

第3章 技術の概要

• 電池
• 水素
• 機体
• 通信技術と自律飛行
  • ナビゲーション・通信システム
  • IoT接続
  • 自動飛行への道のり

第4章 エコシステムと規制枠組み

• エコシステム
  • 充電
  • バッテリー電源：課題
  • 水素動力：課題
  • 離着陸インフラ
  • 空港インフラ
  • MRO (整備・修理・オーバーホール)
• 規制枠組み
  • 認証・標準化
  • 安全性
  • 空域管理
  • 持続可能性

第5章 リージョナルエアモビリティとアーバンエアモビリティ

• リージョナルエアモビリティ：実現可能な市場開拓とユースケース
  • 市場はどのように進化するか：各種のシナリオ
  • ユーザー体験
• アーバンエアモビリティ：実現可能な市場開拓とユースケース
  • 市場はどのように進化するか：各種のシナリオ
  • ユーザー体験
• 地域・都市計画への影響
  • 教育
  • 認可
  • 短期的な都市計画
  • 長期的な都市計画
  • 地域計画
  • 輸送計画と統合

第6章 企業のプロファイルと戦略

• 航空機
  • Bye Aerospace
  • Eviation
  • Heart Aerospace
  • MagniX
  • Pipistrel
  • Universal Hydrogen
  • Wright Electric
  • ZeroAvia
• eVTOL
  • Archer
  • Beta Technologies
  • CityAirbus NextGen
  • EHang
  • Eve Air Mobility
  • Joby Aviation
  • Lilium
  • Supernal
  • Volocopter
  • XPeng (AeroHT)
  • Vertical Aerospace
  • Wisk

第7章 市場予測とシナリオ

• 市場区分
• 市場規模
  • 商用eVTOL
  • 自家用eVTOL
  • 電動航空機
  • 現在の電動eVTOLと航空機の発注残高
  • IoT接続
• 市場価格
• ビジネスモデルとユースケース
• 結論
• 頭字語・略語のリスト

List of Figures

• Figure 1.1: IATA strategy towards net zero
• Figure 2.1: Example of a retrofit design
• Figure 2.2: Example of a traditional design
• Figure 2.3: Example of a new design
• Figure 2.4: Linear and nodal transportation networks
• Figure 2.5: Example of wingless multicopter design
• Figure 2.6: Example of fixed wing design
• Figure 2.7: Example of tilted propeller design
• Figure 3.1: Schematic of electric propulsion concepts
• Figure 3.2: Schematic of energy efficiency for electric and fuel cell propulsion
• Figure 3.3: Potential range for battery all-electric aircraft
• Figure 4.1: The ecosystem of advanced air mobility
• Figure 4.2: Examples of vertiport designs
• Figure 4.3: Commercial certification of electric aircraft (forecast)
• Figure 4.4: Commercial certification of piloted eVTOL (forecast)
• Figure 4.5: Sensor technologies to be used by eVTOLs
• Figure 4.6: eVTOL Control Centre
• Figure 5.1: Potential market for different vehicles
• Figure 5.2: Example of range and use cases for regional air mobility
• Figure 5.3: Commercial implementation steps
• Figure 5.4: Examples of potential eVTOL use cases
• Figure 6.1: Number of global eVTOL projects
• Figure 6.2: eFlyer 800 specifications
• Figure 6.3: Eviation Alice specifications
• Figure 6.4: Heart ES-30 specifications
• Figure 6.5: Magni 350 EPU and Magni 650 EPU specifications
• Figure 6.6: Pipistrel Velis Electro specifications
• Figure 6.7: Roadmap regarding drivetrain
• Figure 6.8: Archer eVTOL vehicle specifications
• Figure 6.9: Beta Alia specifications
• Figure 6.10: CityAirbus NextGen specifications
• Figure 6.11: EH216 and VT-30 specifications
• Figure 6.12: Eve eVTOL vehicle specifications
• Figure 6.13: Joby S4 specifications
• Figure 6.14: Lilium Jet specifications
• Figure 6.15: S-A1 specifications
• Figure 6.16: VoloCity and VoloConnect specifications
• Figure 6.17: X2 specifications
• Figure 6.18: VX4 specifications
• Figure 6.19: Wisk eVTOL vehicle specifications
• Figure 7.1: Passenger aircraft timeline
• Figure 7.2: eVTOL timeline
• Figure 7.3: Shipments of eVTOLs (2021-2050)
• Figure 7.4: Shipments of privately owned eVTOLs (2021-2050)
• Figure 7.5: Shipments of electric aircraft (2021-2050)
• Figure 7.6: Connected vehicles in commercial and private use (2021-2050)
• Figure 7.7: Commercial eVTOL market value (2021-2050)
• Figure 7.8: Private eVTOL market value (2021-2050)
• Figure 7.9: Electric aircraft market value (2021-2050)
• Figure 7.10: Electric aircraft market value (2021-2050)
• Figure 7.11: Use case: eVTOL vertiport in a small city
• Figure 7.12: Use case: eVTOL vertiport in a dense urban area
• Figure 7.13: Use case: Regional airport/airfield - an initial scenario

How will the market for electric aircraft and eVTOLs evolve in the next 30 years? The total market value of electric aircraft and eVTOLs (commercial and private use) during the time period 2021-2050 is forecasted to reach in the range of € 272-725 billion. Get up to date with the latest information about vendors, technology developments, regulations and markets.

Highlights from the report:

• Insights from numerous executive interviews with market leading companies.

• Comprehensive description of the electric aircraft and eVTOL value chain and key use cases.

• Analysis of the ground infrastructure needed and how eVTOLs will be handled in the airspace.

• In-depth analysis of market trends and key developments.

• Profiles of 20 electric aircraft and eVTOL manufacturers.

• Summary of the certification process and handling of safety concerns.

• Market forecasts and scenario analysis lasting until 2050.

Table of Contents

• Table of Contents
• Table of Contents
• List of Figures
• Executive Summary

1. Introduction

• 1.1. The aviation market
• 1.2. The concept of electric aviation
• 1.3. Drivers behind electrification of aircraft and eVTOLs
  • 1.3.1. Reduced costs
  • 1.3.2. Regional travel market
  • 1.3.3. Emissions reductions
  • 1.3.4. Noise reductions
  • 1.3.5. Increased accessibility
  • 1.3.6. Economic development

2. Electric Aircraft and eVTOLs

• 2.1. Electric aircraft
  • 2.1.1. Retrofit
  • 2.1.2. Traditional design
  • 2.1.3. New design
  • 2.1.4. Size versus range
  • 2.1.5. Battery versus hydrogen
• 2.2. eVTOLs
  • 2.2.1. Wingless multicopter
  • 2.2.2. Fixed wing
  • 2.2.3. Tilted wing and/or propellers
• 2.3. Risk assessment regarding eVTOLs
  • 2.3.1. Certification
  • 2.3.2. Infrastructure
  • 2.3.3. Technology
  • 2.3.4. Operations
  • 2.3.5. Public awareness

3. Technology Overview

• 3.1. Batteries
• 3.2. Hydrogen
• 3.3. Airframes
• 3.4. Communications technology and autonomous flight
  • 3.4.1. Navigation and communications systems
  • 3.4.2. IoT connectivity
  • 3.4.3. A possible pathway to autonomous flights

4. Ecosystem and Regulatory Framework

• 4.1. Ecosystem
  • 4.1.1. Charging
  • 4.1.2. Battery power - challenges
  • 4.1.3. Hydrogen power - challenges
  • 4.1.4. Take off and landing infrastructure
  • 4.1.5. Airport infrastructure
  • 4.1.6. MRO
• 4.2. Regulatory framework
  • 4.2.1. Certification and standardisation
  • 4.2.2. Safety
  • 4.2.3. Airspace management
  • 4.2.4. Sustainability

5. Regional Air Mobility and Urban Air Mobility

• 5.1. Regional Air Mobility - possible market development and use cases
  • 5.1.1. How will the market evolve - different scenarios
  • 5.1.2. User experience
• 5.2. Urban Air Mobility - possible market development and use cases
  • 5.2.1. How will the market evolve - different scenarios
  • 5.2.2. User experience
• 5.3. Implications for regional and city planning
  • 5.3.1. Education
  • 5.3.2. Permits
  • 5.3.3. Short term city planning
  • 5.3.4. Long term city planning
  • 5.3.5. Regional planning
  • 5.3.6. Transport planning and integration

6. Company Profiles and Strategies

• 6.1. Aircraft
  • 6.1.1. Bye Aerospace
  • 6.1.2. Eviation
  • 6.1.3. Heart Aerospace
  • 6.1.4. MagniX
  • 6.1.5. Pipistrel
  • 6.1.6. Universal Hydrogen
  • 6.1.7. Wright Electric
  • 6.1.8. ZeroAvia
• 6.2. eVTOLs
  • 6.2.1. Archer
  • 6.2.2. Beta Technologies
  • 6.2.3. CityAirbus NextGen
  • 6.2.4. EHang
  • 6.2.5. Eve Air Mobility
  • 6.2.6. Joby Aviation
  • 6.2.7. Lilium
  • 6.2.8. Supernal
  • 6.2.9. Volocopter
  • 6.2.10. XPeng (AeroHT)
  • 6.2.11. Vertical Aerospace
  • 6.2.12. Wisk

7. Market Forecasts and Scenarios

• 7.1. Market segmentation
• 7.2. Market size
  • 7.2.1. Commercial eVTOLs
  • 7.2.2. Privately owned eVTOLs
  • 7.2.3. Electric aircraft
  • 7.2.4. The current electric eVTOL and aircraft order stock
  • 7.2.5. IoT Connectivity
• 7.3. Market value
• 7.4. Business models and use cases
• 7.5. Concluding remarks

• List of Acronyms and Abbreviations