世界のエネルギー市場予測

オンラインインターフェース

エネルギーモデリングと予測はEnerdataの中核的活動です。当分野におけるEnerdata独自の専門性と世界で認められたPOLESモデルを駆使し、2040年までの世界のエネルギー予測に関するオンラインサービスを提供します。

イントロダクション

• 世界65の国・地域
• 世界のエネルギー市場に関する2040年までの予測
• セクター別、種類別エネルギー需要予測
• セクター別、エネルギー別CO2排出量予測
• 顧客セグメント別、エネルギー別エンドユーザー価格予測
• 年間予測
• オプション：パワーミクスモジュール（発電予測 - 使用燃料別生産量と容量）
• 2012年を参考年とした、2000年以降の年間実績データ
• 世界的に認知されたPOLESモデルに基づくエネルギー予測

主な特徴

• 2040年までの長期予測
• 全てのエネルギーをカバー
• セクター別、エネルギー別の需要/価格予測
• セクター別のCO2排出量予測
• パワーミクスの予測（発電容量と生産量）
• 最新のマクロ経済状況と福島原発事故以降の出来事を反映した3つの詳細シナリオ

主なメリット

• エネルギー予測において30年以上の経験をもつ実績あるモデリングチーム
• エネルギーシステムモデリングおよび予測における世界的基準であるPOLESモデルから抽出した予測情報
• 地域ごとのバランス調整による一貫性のあるグローバル予測
• 地域間のエネルギーシステム相互作用のシミュレーション
• セクター別石油、ガス、石炭、電力需要の動向追跡
• エネルギー別の中期的市場シェア予測
• 二酸化炭素排出制限がエネルギー価格と需要に及ぼす影響の評価
• 仮説と最新分析のためのモデルインプットにアクセス

調査対象地域/国

Instant access to exclusive forecasts to 2040

EnerFuture provides energy projections up to 2040. Our service offers clear insight into the future of energy demand, prices and GHG emissions by energy source and sector at both country and regional level. EnerFuture provides a consistent set of data based on a proven modelling methodology.

A useful tool to assess the evolution of energy markets worldwide and its drivers, Enerfuture will help you define your business strategic plans.

New projections based on updated data up to 2016

Key features:

• Global coverage (65+ countries/regions)
• Long-term (2040) energy projections based on the globally recognised POLES model
• All energies covered: oil, gas, coal, electricity, biomass and CO2 emissions
• Annual demand and price forecasts by sector and energy
• CO2 emissions forecasts by fuel and sector
• Power mix forecasts (capacities and production)

Both fossil fuels and renewable energies covered

• Three detailed scenarios
• 24/7 online access
• Updated historical data from 2000 - 2016
• Data available as graphs and tables for country/scenario benchmark
• Data export in .csv format to integrate your own databases and models
• User-friendly interface with unlimited MS-Excel exports

Optional module:

• MACC: Long-term Marginal Abatement Cost Curves generate the different levels of emissions reductions that can be reached for different carbon price levels for a given year, country and sector.

Key benefits

• Easy access to the comprehensive and complex POLES model:
  • A world reference in energy systems modelling and forecasting
  • Uses a dynamic simulation of supply and demand with endogenous calculation of energy prices

• Independent view: Enerdata is not linked to any governmental bodies or energy companies

• Can be benchmarked with WEO and/or your own forecasts

• Regular updates

• Global forecast consistent with country specific energy balances

• Detailed description of the POLES model

• Modelling methodology and scenarios are made explicit

• Support from the experienced Enerdata Global Energy Forecasting specialists

Countries covered

65+ countries/regions.

^*Note: Price Forecast unavailable.

EnerFuture Scenarios

Ener-Blue

Ener-Blue provides an outlook of the energy system based on the successful achievement of the 2030 NDCs' targets as announced at the COP21 and revised since then. Global energy demand increases, driven by the growth in China and other emerging countries, but NDCs enable to control the energy demand growth and CO2 emissions until 2030. These efforts are compatible with a 3-4°C objective.

Ener-Brown

This scenario describes a world of durably low fossil fuel energy prices; exploitation and production of unconventional oil and gas resources intensifies and expands globally, however confirmed energy commitments in some regions as well as technological innovation foster the deployment of renewables. Without a global agreement, global CO2 emissions soar towards a +5 °C temperature increase.

Ener-Green

This scenario explores the implications of more stringent climate policies with countries fulfilling their NDC commitments and then regularly revising their emissions goals. Ambitious efforts are made to phase out fossil fuel subsidies and to enable a strong deployment of renewables. Under this new green deal, world emissions are divided by 2 by 2040, the global temperature increase is limited at +2°C.

Data Series Covered:

• Energies/Emissions: oil, gas, coal, electricity, biomass and CO2 emissions

• Demand: total demand and demand by sector

• Power: production and capacities by energy type: fossil energies, nuclear, renewables (wind, solar, etc.)

• Sectors: power production, industry, transport and residential/services/agriculture

Previews

Energy Demand Forecasting:
Oil products consumption of transport (ktoe) over 2010 - 2040