株式会社グローバルインフォメーション
TEL: 044-952-0102
表紙
市場調査レポート

オンショア資産の最適化 & 信頼性ベンチマーキングレポート 2015年

WEU Onshore Asset Optimization & Reliability Benchmarking Report 2015

発行 Wind Energy Update 商品コード 326121
出版日 ページ情報 英文 170 Pages
納期: 即日から翌営業日
価格
本日の銀行送金レート: 1USD=114.71円で換算しております。
Back to Top
オンショア資産の最適化 & 信頼性ベンチマーキングレポート 2015年 WEU Onshore Asset Optimization & Reliability Benchmarking Report 2015
出版日: 2015年03月06日 ページ情報: 英文 170 Pages
概要

当レポートは、風力エネルギー資産の最適化 & 信頼性について取り上げ、風力発電資産の作業能率の包括的なデータ調査、風力発電資産にとって最もコスト効果的なアプローチ、および風力 O&M (オペレーション&メンテナンス)市場の規模と成長予測などをまとめ、お届けいたします。

主な提供内容

  • 詳細な信頼性分析:ギアボックス、タービン、およびローターブレードの利用可能性、故障率、故障期間および年間の損失日を含めた詳細調査
  • 反応型、予測型、およびスケジュールO&M (オペレーション & メンテナンス) の比較:風力資産にとってどのアプローチが最もコスト効果的かを発見する
  • 風力発電資産にとって最もコスト効果的なアプローチの発見
  • ライフサイクルコストに対するO&Mの影響:O&Mの最適化がいかにして風力発電資産の生産性を拡大し、LCOE (均等化発電原価) を削減するかについて学ぶ
  • O&Mにおける革新:産業オートメーション、サプライチェーン調整、モジュール化、および標準化における最新動向の包括的な議論
  • 世界の風力 O&M 市況・予測:世界の主要市場における設置容量に関する最新データ、O&M市場規模および成長予測
  • 信頼性分析、ほか
目次

Exhaustive performance and cost data and analysis to boost your farm yield

The lack of transparency concerning operational performance data from wind energy assets has historically been a key stumbling block at both the industry and company level. In the absence of open dialogue between the gatekeepers of performance and cost data the industry has yet to carve out a set of performance gold standards whilst the cost-competiveness of wind energy versus other energy generation industries has no doubt been stalled by this.

In this report you will find

  • In-depth reliability analysis: A detailed look at gearboxes, turbines and rotor blades including availability, failure rates, outage duration and lost days per year.
  • Reactive, predictive and schedule O&M compared: Find out which approach is most cost-effective for your wind power assets.
  • Impact of O&M on life-cycle costs: Learn how optimizing O&M can increase productivity and reduce the Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) of your wind power assets.
  • Innovation in O&M: Comprehensive discussions on the lastes trends in industrial automation, supply chain alignment, modularization and standardization.
  • Global wind O&M market status and forecasts: The latest data on installed capacities, O&M market size and growth forecasts in all main markets worldwide.
  • The reliability analysis in this report is based on Sciemus proprietary database, which contains ~100,000 years of operational project data.

Benefits of the report

For executives working in the O&M space the ability to contextualise their assets' performance has typically been restricted to benchmarking against in-house portfolios or ad-hoc data-stream publications. What one asset manager may consider to be a reliable generator experience may transpire to be performing to a sub-standard level when compared against the field.

The WEU Onshore Asset Optimization & Reliability Benchmarking Report 2015 provides unprecedented clarity on performance and cost data enabling you to:

  • Streamline your O&M activities in-line with component lifecycle failure occurrences, downtime rates, and repair and/or replacement costs as experienced in real situations
  • Identify areas within your portfolio for optimizing performance output and reducing O&M costs
  • Harness this data to intelligently inform your O&M response strategies going forward at both the component and project level

1. O&M Market Overview, Sizing and Status

  • 1.1. Wind energy market outlook
    • 1.1.1. Global installed capacity Leading markets in 2014
    • 1.1.2. Worldwide future prospects Towards 2020 and beyond to 2030
  • 1.2. Major market players
    • 1.2.1. Operators
    • 1.2.2. Owners
    • 1.2.3. Turbine manufacturers
  • 1.3. Turbine size
  • 1.4. O&M market
    • 1.4.1. Wind farm O&M market size
    • 1.4.2. Warranty status
    • 1.4.3. O&M market trends

2. Evolution of costs and performance

  • 2.1. Component capital costs
    • 2.1.1. Turbine transaction costs
    • 2.1.2. Turbines with gearbox
    • 2.1.3. Direct drive turbines (with Permanent Magnet Generator (PMG)
  • 2.2. Cost of wind generated electricity
    • 2.2.1. Historical LCOE trends
    • 2.2.2. Other sources of electricity and grid parity
  • 2.3. O&M costs
    • 2.3.1. Historical trends
    • 2.3.2. Initial warranty and post warranty periods
    • 2.3.3. Cost breakdown comparison with other energy sources
    • 2.3.4. Breakdown of cost factors
  • 2.4. Performance - yield/availability
    • 2.4.1. Historical availability trends
    • 2.4.2. Market benchmarking
    • 2.4.3. Actual contract warranties for availability
    • 2.4.4. Operational performance
    • 2.4.5. Capacity factor trends and comparison with other sources
    • 2.4.6. Routes to improvement

3. Failure frequency and downtimes

  • 3.1. Definitions and methodology
  • 3.2. Failure rates at the sub-component level
  • 3.3. The effect of turbine capacity
  • 3.4. The effect of turbine technology
  • 3.5. The effect of turbine age

4. Failure of major components: causes, modes and implications

  • 4.1. Reasons for unavailability
  • 4.2. Major component failure
    • 4.2.1. Gearbox
      • Gearbox Failure Causes
      • Gearbox Failure Modes
      • Best Practices
      • Buy New, Repair or Remanufacture?
      • Design Improvements
    • 4.2.2. Blades
      • Blade Failure Causes
      • Blade Failure Modes
      • Changing Loads with Increasing Size
      • Serial Defects
      • Best Practices
    • 4.2.3. Generator
      • Generator Failure Causes
      • Generator Failure Modes
      • Generator Failure Rates
      • Best Practices

5. Failure of secondary components: causes, modes and implications

  • 5.1. Failure modes and cost factors
    • 5.1.1. Mechanical components
      • Drivetrain components
      • Yaw system
      • Hydraulic systems
    • 5.1.2. Electrical components
      • Pitch system
      • Power converter
      • Sensors
    • 5.1.3. Other structural components
      • Tower and foundations
      • Bolted joints

6. Maintenance strategies

  • 6.1. Reactive maintenance (corrective)
  • 6.2. Preventive (time-based) maintenance
    • 6.2.1. Critical inspections of major components
      • Gearbox and lubrication
      • Rotor blades
      • Generator
  • 6.3. Predictive maintenance
    • 6.3.1. Performance monitoring (non-intrusive condition monitoring)
      • SCADA Data Analysis
      • Performance Monitoring
      • Power Signal Analysis
      • Electrical Signature Analysis
    • 6.3.2. Condition-based maintenance
      • Vibration Analysis
      • Remote Oil Debris Monitoring
      • Strain Measurements
      • Fiber Optic Measurements
      • Shock Pulse Method
      • Thermography
      • Temperature Monitoring
      • Acoustic Monitoring
      • Visual inspection
      • Ultrasonic Testing
      • Radiographic Inspection
    • 6.3.3. Reliability-based maintenance (risk-based)
  • 6.4. Benefits of CMS in a nutshell
    • 6.4.1. Reduction of failure rate
    • 6.4.2. Trend analysis
    • 6.4.3. Improved documentation
  • 6.5. Improvement maintenance

7. Potential routes towards optimization

  • 7.1. Industrial automation
  • 7.2. Supply chain alignment
  • 7.3. Modularization and standardization
  • 7.4. Labor skills
  • 7.5. Advanced asset management
    • 7.5.1. Performance upgrades
    • 7.5.2. Aerodynamic performance
    • 7.5.3. Site parameters
    • 7.5.4. Cost and risk considerations
  • 7.6. Trends in R&D and technology
    • 7.6.1. A fundamental question: gearbox or no gearbox?
    • 7.6.2. Wind specific designs
    • 7.6.3. Integration and interaction of monitoring and control systems
      • Smart Monitoring

8. Concluding remarks

  • Chapter 1. O&M Market Overview, Sizing and Status
  • Chapter 2. Evolution of Costs and Performance
  • Chapter 3. Failure frequency and downtimes
  • Chapter 4. Failure of major components: causes, modes and implications
  • Chapter 5. Failure of secondary components: causes, modes and implications
  • Chapter 6. Maintenance strategies
  • Chapter 7. Potential routes towards optimization

List of Boxes

  • BOX 1: Contenido
  • BOX 1: Case Study - Lifetime costs for a 300MW onshore wind farm
  • BOX 2: Cost of inefficient turbine operation
  • BOX 3: Big data in the wind industry
  • BOX 4: Case Study- Secondary damage and escalating costs
  • BOX 5: Case Study- End-of-warranty inspections
  • BOX 6: Case Study - Close-up on Windar Photonics LIDAR cost/revenue
  • BOX 7: Case Study- Pitch fault types and associated turbine unavailability costs
  • BOX 8: Potential cost savings through bolt conversion
  • BOX 9: Case Study - How clearly defining scope of work impacts the repair budget
  • BOX 10: Drone inspection
  • BOX 11: Case Study - LIDAR measurements to correct yaw misalignment
  • BOX 12: Case Study - Vibration monitoring for the detection of severe blade misalignment
  • BOX 13: Case Study - Main bearing predictive risk-based maintenance
  • BOX 14: Case Study - An upgraded inverter for GE 1.5 S

List of Figures

  • Figure 1: Worldwide wind energy capacity
  • Figure 2: Global annual cumulative wind installed capacity
  • Figure 3: Top 10 cumulative capacity markets, 1H2014
  • Figure 4: Worldwide cumulative installed capacity breakdown
  • Figure 5: Top 10 new Installed capacity in 1st semester 2014
  • Figure 6: New Policies Scenario and forecast cumulative installed capacity by region
  • Figure 7: Top 15 operator around the world by installed capacity
  • Figure 8: Top 15 owner around the world by installed capacity
  • Figure 9: Largest volumes of publically-announced onshore turbine contracts (January-July 2014)
  • Figure 10: Top 10 turbine manufacturers
  • Figure 11: Evolution of wind turbine capacity and size in Germany
  • Figure 12: Evolution of installed capacity in US and average rated power, 2004-2014
  • Figure 13: Global growth of out-of-warranty O&M market
  • Figure 14: China's estimated cumulative off-warranty onshore wind capacity
  • Figure 15: How often do you re-evaluate your turbine O&M strategy throughout the lifecycle of your asset?
  • Figure 16: What do you anticipate will be the contract cost variation in your key market in the next two years?
  • Figure 17: Reported wind turbine transaction prices over time
  • Figure 18: Very common high-speed modular, two-point mounted drivetrain (e.g. Vestas V80,Gamesa 2MW, GE 1.5 77)
  • Figure 19: Manufacturing cost share of components for a geared 2MW turbine
  • Figure 21: Manufacturing cost share of components for a 2MW PMG turbine
  • Figure 20: Very common high-speed modular, two-point mounted drivetrain (e.g. Vestas V80, Gamesa 2MW, GE 1.5 77)
  • Figure 22: LCOE of Unsubsidized Onshore Wind
  • Figure 23: Unsubsidized LCOE Comparison
  • Figure 24: LCOE for different generation technologies, 2009-2014
  • Figure 25: LCOE of utility-scale renewable technologies, 2010 and 2014
  • Figure 26: Distribution of wind farm operating costs
  • Figure 27: Average price for full-service O&M contracts
  • Figure 28: Average annual O&M costs, 1982-2013
  • Figure 29: What is the typical length of your O&M service contracts?
  • Figure 30: How would you most likely tailor an O&M strategy in the following scenarios?
  • Figure 31: Warranty/Post Warranty O&M costs
  • Figure 32: Lifetime costs for a 300MW wind farm
  • Figure 33: LCOE cost breakdown for different energy sources
  • Figure 34: Total O&M cost breakdown
  • Figure 35: Current and projected fixed O&M costs
  • Figure 36: Current and projected variable O&M costs
  • Figure 38: Wind speeds and produced energy for an example Vestas turbine
  • Figure 37: Different availability definitions used in the industry
  • Figure 39: Time variation of wind farm technical availability
  • Figure 40: Impact of availability benchmarks on equity returns
  • Figure 41: Wind farm availability trend over time
  • Figure 42: What is the most common availability guarantee agreed within full service contracts?
  • Figure 43: Yearly real average capacity factors recorded in US, conventional vs. renewable resources
  • Figure 44: Capacity factors by project and weighted averages for commissioned and proposed wind farms, 2010-2014
  • Figure 45: Failure rates by sub-component for global turbine peer group
  • Figure 46: Lost days per year by sub-component for global turbine peer group
  • Figure 47: Failure rates by turbine capacity
  • Figure 48: Outage duration for different components, split by turbine capacities
  • Figure 49: Lost days per year by turbine capacity
  • Figure 50: Failure rates by turbine technology
  • Figure 51: Outage duration by turbine technology
  • Figure 52: Lost days per year by turbine technology
  • Figure 53: Failure rates by component
  • Figure 54: Average outage duration by component over a turbine's lifetime
  • Figure 55: Lost days per year by component for global turbine peer group
  • Figure 56: Outages as a percentage of turbine operational availability
  • Figure 57: Based upon your wind assets what is currently the most common cause of unavailability?
  • Figure 58: A typical wind turbine gearbox
  • Figure 59: Failing components in wind turbine gearboxes
  • Figure 60: GE's approach for keeping gearbox repairs up-tower
  • Figure 61: Estimated gearbox overhaul and lost revenue costs by nameplate capacity
  • Figure 62: Cost factors for a new, repaired and remanufactured gearbox
  • Figure 64: With respect of your portfolio, which 3 of the following components yield the most expensive O&M activities? (Ranked 1 to 3)
  • Figure 63: Setting up FusionDrive from Moventas
  • Figure 65: Major failure modes for wind turbine blades
  • Figure 66: Severity and incidence of common blade damage and wear
  • Figure 67: Warranty state of inspected blades
  • Figure 68: Blade defect type breakdown
  • Figure 69: Lifecycle of a healthy blade
  • Figure 70: Distribution of main causes of failure of generators or electrical engines
  • Figure 71: Generator magnetic wedge failure modes
  • Figure 72: Rotor banding failure due to overspeed conditions
  • Figure 73: Occurrence of generator failure modes
  • Figure 74: Position of main bearing at the rotor end of the drivetrain
  • Figure 75: Spherical roller main bearing for wind turbine
  • Figure 76: Example of a yaw system
  • Figure 77: Number of yaw system patents
  • Figure 78: Wrong yaw position in a wind farm
  • Figure 79: Yaw misalignment measurement on a Vestas V-82 turbine in India
  • Figure 80: Windar Photonics LIDAR
  • Figure 81: Mechanical brakes for a typical MW-class wind turbine
  • Figure 82: Braking system faults and their likelihood of detection by remote current analysis
  • Figure 83: Possible hydraulic applications in the nacelle
  • Figure 84: Causes of hydraulic fluid leakage
  • Figure 85: Auxiliary electrical equipment in the nacelle (in orange)
  • Figure 86: Load control faults at a 21x2MW turbine wind farm over a two-year period
  • Figure 87: Load control faults at a 21x2MW turbine wind farm over a two-year period
  • Figure 88: Source of stress distribution in power electronic systems
  • Figure 89: Common turbine condition monitoring sensors
  • Figure 91: Typical wind turbine bolt connections
  • Figure 90: Lost turbine due to foundation failure
  • Figure 92: Theoretical torque vs. actual torque on different bolts
  • Figure 93: Direct tension indicator
  • Figure 94: Tension monitoring bolt
  • Figure 95: Currently used maintenance strategies
  • Figure 96: Which O&M response approach do you tend to adopt in relation to a fleet of ageing wind turbines?
  • Figure 97: How would you best describe your approach towards O&M activities over the whole lifecycle of your assets?
  • Figure 98: Blade repair procedure
  • Figure 99: Using drones for wind turbine inspections
  • Figure 100: SCADA mechanism for failure analysis
  • Figure 101: SCADA prediction example: Gearbox bearing temperature
  • Figure 102: Turbine problems that can be detected early through SCADA analysis
  • Figure 103: Operational yaw error data before and after the correction
  • Figure 104: Relative benefits of monitoring approaches
  • Figure 105: Condition monitoring symptom and fault analysis and response process
  • Figure 106: Typical data sources leading to classic condition-based maintenance program
  • Figure 107: In general, do you tend to deploy condition monitoring systems (CMS) on your assets?
  • Figure 108: What kind of CMS do you typically deploy?
  • Figure 109: Possible application of CMSs
  • Figure 110: Potential vibration sensor locations on the drive train
  • Figure 112: Variation of wind speed, including period of increased vibration alert
  • Figure 111: Variation of wind speed including period of increased vibration alert
  • Figure 113: Pitch ram before and after corrective action
  • Figure 114: ECN's fiber optic load monitoring sensor and sensor installed on an existing turbine
  • Figure 115: Infrared image of generator connections shows a problem with brushes
  • Figure 116: Potential failure - Functional failure (P-F) curve
  • Figure 117: Mobile scanning unit traversing a turbine blade
  • Figure 118: Costs associated with maintenance strategies
  • Figure 119: Main bearing replacement requires an expensive crane
  • Figure 120: Life expectancy for the main bearing considering micro-pitting damage
  • Figure 121: The strategic equation for reliability based maintenance
  • Figure 122: Failure detection and repair timeline
  • Figure 123: Damage development for corrective (left) - and CB maintenance (right)
  • Figure 124: A blown inverter from a GE 1.5MW S series turbine and an upgraded replacement inverter
  • Figure 125: Anticipated impact of all innovations by element
  • Figure 126: In-situ foam application concept and beltsander prototype for grinding and polishing
  • Figure 127: Levels of vertical integration in OEMs
  • Figure 128: Realizable saving potentials by product standardization
  • Figure 129: The key to modularity
  • Figure 130: Illustration by Vestas of more value propositions with lower complexity
  • Figure 132: Skills gap to 2030 (FTE)
  • Figure 131: Survey results for the ease of finding suitably trained staff in wind industry
  • Figure 134: Optimized management and operations
  • Figure 133: Optimized management and operations
  • Figure 136: Air flow elements: (left) Vortex generators, (right) trailing edge serrations
  • Figure 135: Optimized management and operations
  • Figure 137: Spinner-mounted ultrasonic sensor.
  • Figure 138: Drivers and barriers for a typical wind turbine blade upgrade program
  • Figure 139: Rare earth metal prices compared with gold over a six-year period
  • Figure 140: SKF Bearing built for wind turbines
  • Figure 141: Production Tax Credit and the US market activity
  • Figure 142: Brazil's ABEEólica's cumulative wind capacity projections

List of Tables

  • Table 1: Worldwide cumulative installed capacity breakdown
  • Table 2: Worldwide cumulative installed capacity breakdown
  • Table 3: Representative geared wind turbine manufacturing costs
  • Table 4: Manufacturing costs of a wind turbine with blade pitch control and variable-speed permanent magnet generator
  • Table 5: Manufacturing costs of a wind turbine with blade pitch control and variable-speed permanent magnet generator
  • Table 6: Cost of onshore wind O&M from several sources
  • Table 7: Factors affecting wind farm availability
  • Table 8: Advantages and drawbacks of availability definitions
  • Table 9: Component categories and sub-components of wind turbines
  • Table 10: Classification of wind turbine technology
  • Table 11: US Wind farm operational metrics
  • Table 12: Cost of onshore wind O&M from several sources
  • Table 13: Wind Energy Asset and Data Sampling
  • Table 14: GE's up-tower repair capability
  • Table 16: Repaired vs. remanufactured gearbox
  • Table 17: Most common causes of blade failure
  • Table 18: Blade failure types at a 67-turbine wind farm (over 14 years)
  • Table 19: Changing loading effects and dominant failure types with increased blade size
  • Table 20: Possible damage found on blade and recommended time for correction
  • Table 21: Effect of leading edge erosion on turbine output
  • Table 22: Up-tower vs. down-tower bearing repairs
  • Table 23: Defect analysis of a wind turbine's supervisory and control system
  • Table 24: 100MW wind farm LIDAR profit estimation
  • Table 25: Scheduled and unscheduled downtime events
  • Table 26: Maintenance constraints
  • Table 27: Wind turbine gear lubrication oil condition and its significance
  • Table 28: Repair offers from various vendors
  • Table 29: Comparison of blade access methods
  • Table 30: Benefits of a drone inspection
  • Table 31: Pros and cons of different maintenance strategies
  • Table 32: Example wind farm characteristics
  • Table 33: Yaw misalignment measurements and estimated gain from correction
  • Table 34: Minimum number of sensors for certification
  • Table 35: Oil debris monitoring complements vibration analysis
  • Table 36: Oil analysis sensors on the market
  • Table 37: Anonymized costs of widely used and commercially available CM and SHM systems
  • Table 38: Turbine gearbox common inspection techniques
  • Table 39: The reliability challenge in the wind industry seen before, today and in the future
  • Table 40: Drive train condition monitoring cost simulation results
  • Table 41: SHM systems on blades, tower and foundation
  • Table 42: Power performance upgrades activities
  • Table 43: Benefits of fully-integrated CMS
  • Table 44: Overall cost of generation of conventional fuel-based power vs. wind tariffs
Back to Top