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市場調査レポート

組込みハードウェア&システム:軍事・航空産業向けサービス市場

Military/Aerospace: Embedded Integrated Systems Supplier Analysis

発行 VDC Research Group, Inc. 商品コード 232050
出版日 ページ情報 英文 64 Pages, 14 Exhibits
納期: 即日から翌営業日
価格
本日の銀行送金レート: 1USD=114.77円で換算しております。
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組込みハードウェア&システム:軍事・航空産業向けサービス市場 Military/Aerospace: Embedded Integrated Systems Supplier Analysis
出版日: 2011年12月31日 ページ情報: 英文 64 Pages, 14 Exhibits
概要

米国では、国債の削減に対する政治的注目度の高まりから、2012年の国防省予算が緊縮型となる様相です。アフガニスタンでの作戦行動を維持し、イラクからの兵力撤退を完了するなか、米国は激しい反戦運動に晒され、軍事予算削減の構えにあります。

当レポートでは、組込みハードウェアおよびシステムのサプライヤーにとって需要の源である軍事・航空市場に注目し、そのセグメンテーション、規模、将来動向、発展要因、課題などを分析する最新の調査情報を、概略以下の構成でお届けします。

エグゼクティブサマリー

  • エグゼクティブサマリー
  • 組込み型コンピュータシステム(EICS:Embedded Integrated Computer Systems)アーキテクチャと外形規格の階層
  • 世界軍事費の短期展望が示す「投資の横ばいまたは縮小」と「反動による組込みコンピューティングプラットフォームへの投資」
  • 「巨大な鉄の塊」や「武力」へのアプローチから、洗練されたコンピュータ制御の精密兵器に移行しつつある世界の軍事施設。軍事費は削減傾向に
  • マクロ経済の力が軍事・航空市場における組込み技術の緩やかな成長を支援
  • 多数の市場セグメントから導き出された組込み技術への需要が、複合的な内外環境ファクターに沿って勢いを変えながら増減する状況へ

調査の範囲と方法

  • EICS市場セグメンテーション
  • 調査の範囲と方法 - 供給側
  • 調査の範囲と方法 - 需要側
  • 調査の範囲と方法

市場の定義とセグメンテーション

  • 市場の定義とセグメンテーション
  • 進化している軍事顧客の要求条件
  • 共通性が高い民間航空事業者の要求条件
  • 重要技術用語と定義

市場の推定・予測数値

  • 世界の軍事・航空用途におけるEICSの出荷額 - 2010-2015年
  • 商業EICS軍事・航空プラットフォーム - 2010年および2013年
  • 軍事および航空分野における商業EICSの任務・用途 - 2010年および2013年
  • EICSの軍事・航空用途、プラットフォームタイプ - 2010年および2013年
  • 軍事・航空用途におけるEICSエンクロージャタイプ - 2010年および2013年
  • システムの完成度、軍事・航空用途 - 2010年および2013年
  • 地域の顧客需要ソース - 2010年および2013年
  • 軍事・航空用途におけるEICS、顧客階層 - 2010年および2013年
  • パッシブバックプレーンアーキテクチャ、軍事・航空用途 - 2010年および2013年
  • アクティブバックプレーン外形規格階層、軍事・航空用途 - 2010年および2013年
  • 流通チャネル、軍事・航空用途 - 2010年および2013年
  • マルチCPU使用、軍事・航空用途 - 2010年および2013年
  • オペレーティングシステム使用、軍事・航空用途 - 2010年および2013年
  • 1次CPUのタイプ、軍事・航空用途 - 2010年および2013年
  • 主要組込みシステムサプライヤーの比較分析

EICS顧客の要求条件と志向

  • エグゼクティブサマリー
  • VDCが推定する非重要EICSアウトソーシングの大幅増加
  • 商業EICSサプライヤーは、予測対象期間全般にわたってEICSの最重要サードパーティソース
  • 軍事・航空分野調査回答者は、今後数年にわたるEICS支出の加速度的拡大を予測
  • もっとも大きな割合の回答企業が各々もっとも大切な要素に挙げた「品質と信頼性」そして「価格とコスト」
  • サードパーティEICSサプライヤーが提供できる最重要サービスに格付けされたのは、「カスタムソフトウェア」、代金を払っても惜しくないサービスとも評価された
  • 2011年にもっともよく使用されたハードウェア加速手法であるパターンマッチングは、2014年にビデオ分析法やトランスコーディングに置き換え予定

サマリーと所見

  • 軍事・航空市場は、2015年までの期間を通じて4.98%の複合年間成長率で拡大し、およそ78億ドル規模に達する見込み
  • 支出制約への圧力から、国防省は「最優先」分野に資源を向ける構え
  • さまざまな新興用途に向けた支援システムの成長を加速する軍事・航空市場トレンド
  • マクロの、先端技術の、そして産業全体のトレンドが今後のEICS技術を推進
目次

Abstract

Market Overview

Declining global military spending points to a move away from expensive "big iron" approaches toward sophisticated, computer-controlled precision weaponry

In the United States, increased political focus on reducing the national debt is likely to lead to a budget-constrained Department of Defense in 2012.

As the US maintains operations in Afghanistan and finalizes military withdrawal from Iraq, the nation is seeing a strong antiwar backlash, further fueling downward pressure on military funding.

Several European nations (e.g. Portugal, Italy, Greece) are undergoing financial crises of their own, verging on insolvency and creating a sense of instability within the EU. Bailout efforts by other members of the European Union are consuming funding that might otherwise be spent on defense. Thus, it is likely that European defense expenditures will either remain flat or show an additional decline.

To a large extent, Latin America's defense expenditures have been in the form of "catchup," - introducing more modern, high-tech weaponry and support systems. This is likely to continue, but probably without substantial additional growth in spending.

China's defense expenditures are likely to show modest growth. On the other hand, Japanese resources have been diverted to earthquake/tsunami relief and to dealing with the recent nuclear crisis. Thus, we expect Japanese defense spending to be drastically curtailed.

However, it has been shown that use of unmanned weapons platforms (e.g., UAVs) is substantially less expensive than corresponding manned platforms (e.g. helicopters). Additionally, the 2012 budget request calls for the upgrade and modernization of existing systems, and for increased usage of COTS components and open-source software as cost-saving measures. Thus, spending on military embedded computing may not see proportional reductions, and may even increase as spending on technology replaces spending on "big iron."

Global military spending in 2010 estimated as US$ 1.63 trillion. However, this figure represented only a 1.3% increase over 2009 levels, the lowest growth seen since 2001. Previous annual increases averaged 5.1% since 2001. This slowdown is due to a somewhat delayed reaction to the recent worldwide economic recession.

Today and in the future, emphasis is more on tactical weaponry than strategic. Precisionguided munitions and unmanned weapons platforms comprise a large portion of military spending as do communications, command, control, computers, intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (C4ISR).

Embedded computing systems are key components of virtually all military initiatives, not only the most sophisticated.

Strategic Trends, Issues & Market Drivers

Merchant EICS suppliers will remain the most important third-party source for EICS

image1

Military/aerospace respondents were asked to rank the importance of the following third-party sources for meeting their needs for integrated computing systems:

  • Merchant EICS suppliers such as Kontron, Mercury, Radisys, etc.
  • ODM/ECMs such as Foxconn, Flextronics, Solectron, etc.
  • "Traditional" IT/PC Suppliers (Dell, HP, IBM, etc.)
  • Distributors/VARs (Arrow, Avnet, etc.)
  • Other Source Types

Sources are ranked from 1 to 5, with 5 representing the most important and 1, the least important. Data presented is the average value of the rankings.

Traditional" IT/PC suppliers were ranked highest for 2011. This suggests that respondents' product line and focus may be comprised of more "non-combat" applications and missions. "Traditional" PCs are most likely to be employed in such applications as supply and logistics, and those with fewer requirements around ruggedization.

As defense departments look to more advanced technologies, such as unmanned vehicles or portable devices, VDC sees merchant EICS suppliers gaining an increased market share as manufacturers of mission-critical, high-reliability EICSs.

Market Segmentation, Estimates & Forecasts

Military/Aerospace market is somewhat insulated from macro economic trends, but not policy changers

image2

While the current global economic crisis has strongly impacted the defense budgets, the long-term contracts inherent to this national security-based segment greatly insulate military/aerospace from the volatility of market conditions.

Global pressures to reduce governmental expenditures will likely least affect investment in critical areas including technologies enabling advances in command, control, communications, computers, intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (C4ISR) applications.

We expect strong investment to improve capabilities in Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance (ISR), particularly in the research, development, testing and evaluation of unmanned aircraft systems (UAS).

The growing acceptance of COTS in military/aerospace applications will drive development of technologically advanced systems, enabled by competition in the commercial space.

C4ISR applications will continue to comprise the lion's share of investment as COTS hardware and software are adopted into high-tech military/aerospace systems.

The DoD is shifting money away from large, "exquisite" platforms and towards upgrading and modernizing current systems. Investment in new technology will be focused on cost-effective, advanced technologies with proven reliability and effectiveness.

Planned investment in advanced sensors technology and complex computational analysis systems also help to explain the increased market share of the sonar and munitions guidance applications over the forecast period.

Table of Contents

Executive Summary

  • Page 8 Executive Summary
  • Page 9 EICS architectures and form factor classes
  • Page 10 Near-term outlook for global military spending indicates flat or contracting expenditures, investment in embedded computing platforms resilient
  • Page 11 World's military establishment moving from expensive "big iron" and "brute force" approaches toward sophisticated, computer-controlled precision weaponry. Growth in military expenditures is declining.
  • Page 12 Macroeconomic forces drive modest growth of embedded technology in military/aerospace markets
  • Page 13 Demand for embedded technology derived from multiple market segments will accelerate/decline at varying rates depending on multiple internal/external environmental factors

Scope & Methodology

  • Page 15 EICS Market Segmentation
  • Page 16 Research Scope & Methodology - Supply-Side Analysis
  • Page 17 Research Scope & Methodology - Demand-Side Analysis
  • Page 18 Research Scope & Methodology

Market Definitions & Segmentation

  • Page 20 Market Definition & Segmentation
  • Page 21 Military Customers' Requirements are Evolving
  • Page 22 Civilian Aerospace Requirements are Similar
  • Page 23 Key Technical Terms & Definitions

Market Estimates & Forecasts

  • Page 25 Global Dollar Volume Shipments of EICSs in Military/Aerospace Applications, 2010-2015
  • Page 26 Merchant EICS Military/Aerospace Platforms 2010 & 2013
  • Page 27 Merchant EICS Military/Aerospace Missions/Applications 2010 & 2013
  • Page 28 EICS Military/Aerospace Applications, Platform Types, 2010 & 2013
  • Page 29 EICS Enclosure Types in Military/Aerospace Applications, 2010 & 2013
  • Page 30 Levels of Systems Integration, Military/Aerospace Applications 2010 & 2013
  • Page 31 Regional Sources of Customer Demand, 2010 & 2013
  • Page 32 EICSs in Military/Aerospace Applications, Customer Classes, 2010 & 2013
  • Page 33 Passive Backplane Architectures, Military/Aerospace Applications 2010 & 2013
  • Page 34 Active Backplane Form Factor Classes, Military/Aerospace Applications 2010 & 2013
  • Page 35 Distribution Channels, Military/Aerospace Applications 2010 & 2013
  • Page 36 Multiple CPU Use, Military/Aerospace Applications 2010 & 2013
  • Page 37 Operating System Use, Military/Aerospace Applications 2010& 2013
  • Page 38 Primary CPU Types, Military/Aerospace Applications, 2010 & 2013
  • Page 39 Competitive Analysis of Leading Embedded Suppliers
  • Page 40 Competitive Analysis of Leading Embedded Suppliers
  • Page 41 Competitive Analysis of Leading Embedded Suppliers
  • Page 42 Competitive Analysis of Leading Embedded Suppliers

EICS Customer Requirements & Preferences

  • Page 44 Executive Summary
  • Page 45 VDC estimates a substantial increase in outsourcing of non-critical EICSs.
  • Page 46 Merchant EICS suppliers will remain the most important third-party source for EICS over the forecast period
  • Page 47 Military/aerospace respondents expect spending on EICSs to increase over next few years, at increasing rate
  • Page 48 Quality and reliability, price/cost were each cited as most important by largest share of respondents
  • Page 49 Custom software design ranked most important service a third-party EICS supplier can offer; also one customers most willing to pay for
  • Page 50 Pattern matching most commonly used hardware accelerator in 2011, expected to be displaced by video analytics and transcoding in 2014

Summary & Observations

  • Page 52 Military/aerospace market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 4.98% through 2015, reaching approximately $7.8 billion.
  • Page 53 Pressured to limit spending, defense departments will direct resources at "high-priority" areas
  • Page 54 Military/aerospace market trends driving growth for systems supporting various emerging applications.
  • Page 55 Macro-, technological, and industry-wide trends drive the future of EICS technologies.

LIST OF EXHIBITS

Embedded Integrated Computer Systems (EICSs) in Medical Applications

  • Exhibit I-1 Total Global Market, EICSs in Military & Aerospace Applications, 2010-2015 (US$ in Millions)
  • Exhibit I-2 EICS Military & Aerospace Platforms, 2010 & 2013 (% of Dollar Volume Shipments)
  • Exhibit I-3 EICS Military & Aerospace Missions / Applications, 2010 & 2013 (% of Dollar Volume Shipments)
  • Exhibit I-4 EICSs in Military & Aerospace Applications, Channels of Distribution, 2010 & 2013 (% of Dollar Volume Shipments)
  • Exhibit I-5 EICSs in Military & Aerospace Applications, Customer Classes, 2010 & 2013 (% of Dollar Volume Shipments)
  • Exhibit I-6 EICSs in Military & Aerospace Applications, Geographic Distribution, 2010 & 2013 (% of Dollar Volume
  • Exhibit I-7 EICSs in Military & Aerospace Applications, Levels of Integration, 2010 & 2013 (% of Dollar Volume Shipments)
  • Exhibit I-8 EICSs in Military & Aerospace Applications, Platform Types, 2010 & 2013 (% of Dollar Volume Shipments)
  • Exhibit I-9 EICSs in Military & Aerospace Applications, Passive Backplane Architectures, 2010 & 2013 (% of Dollar Volume Shipments)
  • Exhibit I-10 EICSs in Military & Aerospace Applications, Active Backplane Form Factor Classes, 2010 & 2013 (% of Dollar Volume Shipments)
  • Exhibit I-11 EICSs in Military & Aerospace Applications, Enclosure Types, 2010 & 2013 (% of Dollar Volume Shipments)
  • Exhibit I-12 EICSs in Military & Aerospace Applications, Primary CPU Types, 2010 & 2013 (% of Dollar Volume Shipments)
  • Exhibit I-13 EICSs in Military & Aerospace Applications, Multiple CPU Use, 2010 & 2013 (% of Dollar Volume Shipments)
  • Exhibit 1-14 EICSs in Military & Aerospace Applications, Estimated Operating System Use, 2010 & 2013 (% of Dollar Volume Shipments
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