Abstract
Thintri, Inc. announces the release of Platinum Group Metals: Issues and
Opportunities, a new market study that surveys current market conditions
in platinum group metals (PGMs), and analyzes emerging demand, supply
constraints and price volatility. The report also explores opportunities
generated by new techniques of PGM recovery from previously-unused resources,
and opportunities created by development of new, much less costly substitutes.
The report separates hype from reality and assesses the dramatically changing
landscape facing PGM users and suppliers. Forecasts are supplied for demand
and prices under current conditions going out to 2020, as well as an analysis
of the effects of new technologies for PGM replacement and recovery.
Background on PGMs
Sourcing and Suppliers
Applications
- Automotive and
- Transportation
- Electronics/Electrical
- Medical/Dental
- Industrial and Scientific
- Jewelry, Investment and Coinage
The Supply Side
- "Peak Metals"
- Supply Threats
- Response to Shortages
- Political Issues
- Long-Term Solutions
The Demand Side
- The Automotive Demand Driver
- The Jewelry and Investment Demand Drivers
- The Petroleum Demand Driver
- Industrial Demand Drivers
- Medical/Biomedical/Dental Demand Drivers
- Other Demand Drivers
- PGM Demand by element
- Platinum
- Palladium
- Rhodium
- Iridium
- Ruthenium
- Osmium
- Effects of Alternative Energy Schemes
Price Trends
- PGM Replacement
- Precious Metals and Reduced-PGM
- PGM-Free and Reduced PGM Autocatalysts
- Alternatives Based on Conventional Chemistry
- Alternatives Based on Nanotechnology
- Electrolysis Catalyst Alternatives
- Impact of Alternatives on PGM Demand and Price
Scrap and Recovery
- Improved Recycling Schemes
- Slag and Mine Waste
Background on Platinum Group Metals
Platinum group metals (PGMs), namely platinum, palladium, rhodium, iridium,
ruthenium and osmium, are rare, expensive and critical to today's economy. Up
to now, there have been no other materials that can duplicate their
performance in fundamental applications. Those applications include
autocatalysts, the critical components in the catalytic converters found in
most vehicles that reduce harmful emission; catalysts used in a broad range of
industrial processes, including petroleum refining; high-temperature
processing of abrasive materials such as glass; disc drives and electronic
components; medical and dental implants and devices; and electrochemistry. Of
course, PGMs are also highly prized in jewelry and investment.
Prices of PGMs are high and notoriously volatile. Rhodium, for example, went
from slightly over $6,000 per ounce in mid-2007, to $10,000 per ounce in
mid-2008 and then crashed to a little above $1,000 before the end of that
year. While this degree of fluctuation is exceptional, it's emblematic of the
behavior of critical materials in limited supply, tied to broader economic
forces like auto sales.
At this time, the limits of supply are becoming clear. Like most natural
resources, PGM supplies are inherently limited. Concerns about "peak metals,"
the idea that availability has peaked for limited resources and future
production will be reduced and/or more costly (which has already occurred for
a number of important minerals), will soon be an important influence with
PGMs. Already, Russia, the largest palladium producer, has announced that its
supplies of palladium are dwindling.
Tightening of supplies comes at a time of accelerating demand. Growth of auto
sales and industrialization in the developing world, particularly Brazil,
Russia, India and China (the BRIC countries), as well as interest in PGM
jewelry and investment by newly-prosperous populations, will place significant
stress on available supplies. In addition, tightening environmental
restrictions are forcing the use of more PGMs per vehicle to meet emissions
rules. Also, building of new oil refineries and industrial growth in a
recovering economy will put further stress on supplies. Other demand drivers
like medical and petroleum, which are functions of aging populations and
global economic shifts, will place stress on PGM supplies as well.
Analyses indicate that presently-known platinum reserves are sufficient for
another 360 years at present rates of production and consumption. However,
that estimate drops to 15 years if growing demand, particularly from growing
industrialization and automobile sales in the developing world, is taken into
account.
With demand growth, inelasticity of supply will force up prices in this decade
dramatically.
The response to scarcity will no doubt include reduction in PGM consumption
through "thrifting," i.e, the devising of ways to use less PGMs in established
applications (which has been underway for decades). Also, rising prices will
mean that deposits with lower PGM content such as those in Australia, which
had been too costly to exploit in the past, will now be profitably mined, to
some degree mitigating that price increase.
The most significant consequences, however, will be the development of high
performance, low cost alternatives, and in improved recycling and recovery.
Alternatives are sometimes as simple as substituting a less expensive PGM,
such as palladium, for a more expensive one, such as platinum. The more
significant alternatives use nanotechnology with inexpensive materials such as
nickel, to fine tune the properties of nanoparticles by controlling parameters
such as diameter. Inexpensive nanomaterials can substitute for PGMs in some of
the most important markets, such as catalysts in the automotive and industrial
markets. PGM usage in some applications, such as jewelry and electronics, is
relatively immune from substitution, but most applications are vulnerable.
Recycling will become more important as PGM prices rise. Newly available
technologies are able to dramatically improve the amount of PGMs that can be
captured from recycled products such as catalytic converters.
Other recently developed processes are able to extract significant quantities
of PGMs from mine waste that contains much higher PGM concentrations than the
best quality ores. Mountains of slag and mine waste in North America and
worldwide contain enough PGMs to significantly impact the supply/demand/price
picture for PGMs once exploited.
Alternatives that can capture markets directly from PGMs, and new technologies
that can dramatically improve PGM recovery from recycled materials and mine
waste, are already commercially available or very near commercialization and
will exert a growing influence on markets now owned by PGMs and PGM prices and
availability.
The confluence of growing demand, limited and/or dwindling supplies, and
growing availability of alternatives and new supplies will likely create a
period of extraordinary volatility before things stabilize. Most of this
decade will witness the transition of established PGM markets as prices rise
and users adjust to new conditions, while others take advantage of the new
opportunities presented.
Understand the Opportunities
Platinum group metals are at an extraordinary intersection of market forces.
Their rarity and expense has largely confined them to a limited set of
markets. Those markets, in turn, are largely dependent on PGMs simply because
there have been no viable, and cheaper, alternatives. The inelasticity of
supply has led to occasionally extreme volatility in the past. Today, growing
demand, fueled by a range of factors that include accelerating motor vehicle
sales around the world, a rising industrial sector in many regions and a
growing consumer preference for white metals in jewelry, while supplies are
relatively fixed and in some cases declining, threatens to put PGMs in an even
more volatile situation. As demand exceeds the available supplies, prices can
be expected to rise significantly.
The Thintri market study, Platinum Group Metals: Issues and Opportunities,
relies on in-depth interviews with industry executives, market development
managers and government and academic researchers. The report provides a survey
of the current state of the PGM markets, an assessment of viable alternatives
and recovery schemes, and discussion of the effects of growing demand on
availability and prices, and the effects on those prices of PGM replacement
technologies and improved recovery methods.
Table of Contents
Executive Summary: Platinum Group Metals
- E.1 Introduction
- E.2 Applications
- E.3 Supply, Demand and Price Issues
- Figure E-1 Source Countries of PGMs
- Figure E-2 Platinum Demand Forecast, Autocatalysts
- Figure E-3 Palladium Price Forecast
- E.4 PGM Replacement and Improved Recovery Methods
- Figure E-4 Total Rhodium Displaced by Alternatives
- Figure E-5 Resulting Rhodium Price, After Alternatives
Part 1 Background
- 1.1 Introduction
- Table 1-1 Platinum Group Metals and Characteristics
- Figure 1-1 Periodic Table of the Elements with PGMs Highlighted
- Table 1-2 PGM Prices, February, 2012
- 1.2 The Elements
- 1.2.1 Platinum
- 1.2.2 Palladium
- 1.2.3 Rhodium
- 1.2.4 Iridium
- 1.2.5 Ruthenium
- 1.2.6 Osmium
- 1.3 Sourcing
- 1.3.1 Extraction
- 1.3.2 Major Producers
Part 2 Applications
- 2.1 Electronic components
- 2.2 Medical & Dental
- 2.3 Industrial and Scientific
- 2.3.1 General Industrial
- 2.3.2 Glass Manufacture
- 2.3.3 Scientific
- 2.4 Automotive: Spark Plugs and Sensors
- 2.5 Jewelry
- 2.6 Investment and Coinage
- 2.7 Catalysts
- 2.7.1 Catalysts: Industrial
- 2.7.2 Catalysts: Petroleum
- 2.7.3 Catalysts: Automotive
- 2.7.4 Catalysts: Fuel Cells
- Figure 2-1 PEMFC Fuel Cell Operation
Part 3 The Supply Side: Supplies, Peak Metals & Scarcity
- 3.1 Today's PGM Sources
- Figure 3-1 PGM Production by Country
- Figure 3-2 Platinum Production by Country
- Figure 3-3 Palladium Production by Country
- Figure 3-4 Other PGM Production by Country
- 3.2 Peak Metals & Scarcity
- Table 3-1 Minerals That Have Already Peaked
- 3.3 Response to Shortages
- 3.4 Lessons from the 1970s Cobalt Crisis
- 3.5 Today's Supply Threats: Palladium
- 3.6 Political Issues
- 3.7 Long-Term Solutions: Near-Earth Asteroid Mining
Part 4 The Demand Side: Market Growth and Price Trends
- 4.1 Introduction
- 4.2 The Automotive Demand Driver
- Figure 4-1 Platinum Demand by Region,Autocatalysts, 2012
- Figure 4-2 Palladium Demand by Region, Autocatalysts 2012
- Figure 4-3 Platinum Demand Forecast, Autocatalysts
- Figure 4-4 Platinum Demand Forecast by Region, Autocatalysts
- Figure 4-5 Palladium Demand Forecast - Autocatalysts
- Figure 4-6 Palladium Demand Forecast by Region, Autocatalysts
- Figure 4-7 Rhodium Demand Forecast, Autocatalysts
- 4.3 The Jewelry and Investment Demand Drivers
- Figure 4-8 Platinum Demand by Region, Investment and Jewelry, 2012
- Figure 4-9 Palladium Demand by Region, Investment and Jewelry, 2012
- Figure 4-10 Platinum Demand Forecast - Investment and Jewelry
- Figure 4-11 Palladium Demand Forecast - Investment and Jewelry
- 4.4 The Petroleum Demand Driver
- Figure 4-12 Platinum Demand by Region, Petroleum 2012
- Figure 4-13 Platinum Demand Forecast, Petroleum
- 4.5 Industrial: Chemical, Electrical, Electrochemical and Glass Demand
Drivers
- Figure 4-14 Platinum Demand by Region, Chemical and Glass 2012
- Figure 4-15 Palladium Demand by Region, Chemical 2012
- Figure 4-16 Platinum Demand Forecast, Chemical and Glass
- Figure 4-17 Palladium Demand Forecast - Chemical
- Figure 4-18 Rhodium Demand Forecast - Chemical and Glass
- Figure 4-19 Platinum Demand Forecast, Electrical
- Figure 4-20 Palladium Demand Forecast - Electrical
- Figure 4-21 Rhodium Demand Forecast - Electrical
- Figure 4-22 Iridium Demand Forecast, Chemical, Electrical and
Electrochemical
- Figure 4-23 Ruthenium Demand Forecast, Chemical, Electrical and
Electrochemical
- 4.6 Medical, Biomedical and Dental Demand Drivers
- Figure 4-24 Platinum Demand by Region, Biomedical 2012
- Figure 4-25 Platinum Demand Forecast - Biomedical
- Figure 4-26 Palladium Demand by Region, Dental 2012
- Figure 4-27 Palladium Demand Forecast, Dental
- 4.7 Other Market Drivers
- Figure 4-28 Platinum Demand by Region, Other Applications 2012
- Figure 4-29 Palladium Demand by Region, Other Applications 2012
- Figure 4-30 Platinum Demand Forecast, Other Applications
- Figure 4-31 Palladium Demand Forecast, Other Applications
- Figure 4-32 Rhodium Demand Forecast, Other Applications
- Figure 4-33 Iridium Demand Forecast, Other Applications
- Figure 4-34 Ruthenium Demand Forecast, Other Applications
- 4.8 PGM Demand by Element
- 4.8.1 Platinum
- Figure 4-35 Platinum Demand by Application, 2012
- Figure 4-36 Platinum Demand by Region, 2012
- Figure 4-37 Global Platinum Demand Forecast
- Figure 4-38 Global Platinum Demand Forecast by Region
- 4.3 Palladium
- Figure 4-39 Palladium Demand by Application, 2012
- Figure 4-40 Palladium Demand by Region, 2012
- Figure 4-41 Global Palladium Demand Forecast
- Figure 4-42 Global Palladium Demand Forecast by Region
- 4.4 Rhodium
- Figure 4-43 Rhodium Demand by Application, 2012
- Figure 4-44 Rhodium Demand Forecast
- 4.5 Iridium, Ruthenium and Osmium
- Figure 4-45 Iridium Demand by Application, 2012
- Figure 4-46 Iridium Demand Forecast
- Figure 4-47 Ruthenium Demand by Application, 2012
- Figure 4-48 Ruthenium Demand Forecast
- Figure 4-49 Osmium Demand by Application, 2012
- Figure 4-50 Osmium Demand Forecast
- 4.7 Effects of Alternative Energy Schemes and the Hydrogen Economy
- Figure 4-51 Production of Hydrogen, Shares by Method
Part 5 Price Trends
- 5.1 Introduction and Methodology
- 5.2 Demand Effects on PGM Price
- Figure 5-1 Recent Rhodium Price History
- 5.3 Projected Price Trends
- Figure 5-2 Price Trends, Platinum
- Figure 5-3 Price Trends, Palladium
- Figure 5-4 Price Trends, Rhodium
- Figure 5-5 Price Trends, Iridium
- Figure 5-6 Price Trends, Ruthenium
- Figure 5-7 Price Trends, Osmium
Part 6 PGM Replacement
- 6.1 Introduction
- 6.2 Precious Metals as Alternatives and Reduced PGM-Schemes
- 6.2.1 Precious Metal-Based Substitutes in Autocatalysts
- 6.2.2 Jewelry
- 6.3 PGM-Free and Reduced PGM Autocatalysts
- 6.3.1 Alternatives Based on Conventional Chemistry
- 6.3.2 Alternatives Based on Nanotechnology
- 6.4 Electrolysis and Fuel Cell Catalyst Alternatives
- 6.4.1 Research Progress
- 6.4.2 Nanotechnology: Catalysts Based on Nanoparticles and Nanotubes
- 6.5 Impact of Alternatives on PGM Demand and Price
- 6.5.1 Effects of Platinum Alternatives
- Figure 6-1 Platinum Demand, Conventional Forecast
- Figure 6-2 Platinum Demand Not Susceptible to Replacement
- Figure 6-3 Autocatalysts: Platinum Displaced by Alternatives
- Figure 6-4 Chemical: Platinum Displaced by Alternatives
- Figure 6-5 Petroleum: Platinum Displaced by Alternatives
- Figure 6-6 Total Platinum Displaced by Alternatives
- Figure 6-7 Resulting Platinum Demand After Alternatives
- Figure 6-8 Resulting Platinum Price, After Alternatives
- Figure 6-9 Demand for Platinum Alternatives
- 6.5.2 Effects of Palladium Alternatives
- Figure 6-10 Palladium Demand, Conventional Forecast
- Figure 6-11 Palladium Demand Not Susceptible to Replacement
- Figure 6-12 Autocatalysts: Palladium Displaced by Alternatives
- Figure 6-13 Chemical: Palladium Displaced by Alternatives
- Figure 6-14 Total Palladium Displaced by Alternatives
- Figure 6-15 Resulting Palladium Demand After Alternatives
- Figure 6-16 Resulting Palladium Price, After Alternatives
- Figure 6-17 Demand for Palladium Alternatives
- 6.5.3 Effects of Rhodium Alternatives
- Figure 6-18 Rhodium Demand, Conventional Forecast
- Figure 6-19 Rhodium Demand Not Susceptible to Replacement
- Figure 6-20 Autocatalysts: Rhodium Displaced by Alternatives
- Figure 6-21 Chemical: Rhodium Displaced by Alternatives
- Figure 6-22 Total Rhodium Displaced by Alternatives
- Figure 6-23 Resulting Rhodium Demand After Alternatives
- Figure 6-24 Resulting Rhodium Price, After Alternatives
- Figure 6-25 Demand for Rhodium Alternatives
- 6.5.4 Effects of Alternatives in Hydrogen Fuel Cell Catalysis
- Figure 6-26 Effect of Alternatives on PGM Demand in Hydrogen Fuel
Cells
Part 7 Opportunities in Recycling and Recovery
- 7.1 Introduction
- 7.2 Scrap & Recycling
- Table 7-1 Energy Savings from Processing Scrap Compared with Ore
- 7.2.1 Electronics and Electrochemistry Scrap
- 7.2.2 Automotive Scrap
- 7.2.3 Market Opportunities in PGM Recycling
- Figure 7-1 Realized Scrap Volume: Platinum
- Figure 7-2 Unrealized Scrap Volume: Platinum
- Figure 7-3 Realized Scrap Volume: Palladium
- Figure 7-4 Unrealized Scrap Volume: Palladium
- Figure 7-5 Realized Scrap Volume: Rhodium
- Figure 7-6 Unrealized Scrap Volume: Rhodium
- Figure 7-7 Realized Scrap Volume: Iridium
- Figure 7-8 Unrealized Scrap Volume: Iridium
- Figure 7-9 Realized Scrap Volume: Ruthenium
- Figure 7-10 Unrealized Scrap Volume: Ruthenium
- 7.3 Slag and Mine Waste
- Figure 7-11 PGM Slag Recovery, North America
- Figure 7-12 Slag Recovery, North America, by Metal
- Figure 7-13 PGM Slag Recovery, Rest of World
- Figure 7-14 Slag Recovery, Rest of World, by Metal 1
- Figure 7-15 New PGM Supply with Improved Recovery: Platinum,
Palladium, Rhodium
- Figure 7-16 New PGM Supply with Improved Recovery: Iridium,
Ruthenium, Osmium
- 7.4 Effect of Improved Recycling and Slag Recovery on PGM Prices
- Figure 7-17 Conventional Price Forecast: Platinum, Palladium, Rhodium
- Figure 7-18 Conventional Price Forecast: Iridium, Ruthenium, Osmium
- Figure 7-19 Prices, with Improved Recovery: Platinum, Palladium,
Rhodium
- Figure 7-20 Prices with Improved Recovery: Iridium, Ruthenium, Osmium
