The global financial crisis that began in 2008 may have impacted many sectors
of the Australian economy, but it did nothing to faze the country' s mobile
industry in the past two years. Despite having one fewer major player,
Australia' s mobile market continued to benefit from healthy competition and
innovations around mobile broadband, smartphones and applications.
Produced annually as the flagship report in Telsyte' s Market Analysis and
Forecast Series, this study provides a detailed investigation and
comprehensive analysis of the Australian mobile market in 2009 and a five-year
forecast from 2010 to 2014. Key findings from this study include:
- Australia had 25.5 million mobile user at year-end 2009, a 117% per-capita
penetration level and year-on-year growth of 8%. Service revenue reached $12.8
billion, representing 9% annual growth.
- A saturated market has forced Australian mobile carriers to push the
boundaries of the age brackets, introducing phones designed specifically for
young children and senior citizens.
- As predicted by Telsyte early last year, 3G users surpassed 2G in
mid-2009, growing by 38% throughout the year to constitute nearly 60% of all
- The industry' s non-voice revenue mix climbed to 38% of carrier revenue.
Messaging revenue contribution has shrunk to about one-half of non-voice
- Overall mobile ARPU continued to rise to $43.5 per month, due to the
strong uptake of 3G, non-messaging and mobile broadband services.
- Mobile broadband ARPU has halved in the past five years. Nonetheless, its
revenue grew by a staggering 45% in 2009, driven by its 2.8 million users.
- Telstra remained the largest player in the total market as well as in 3G
and mobile broadband. The merger of Vodafone and Hutchison has emerged as a
strong numberthree player, and surpassed Optus in the all-important 3G segment.
- MVNOs had an eventful year, welcoming a number of new players - the most
notable being supermarket giant Woolworths - and growing their collective
market share to 4%.
- 3G mix as a percentage of total users is projected to grow from over
two-thirds to 90% in the next five years. With LTE trials ushering in a new
era this year, 2G is anticipated to be completely phased out by 2015.
- Mobile broadband will remain a hotly-contested market, with user numbers
virtually matching fixed broadband by the end of the forecast period. However,
mobile broadband growth is hurting carrier profitability due to a fast-growing
cost and revenue disparity.
- Location-based services - as a standalone product and an enabling
technology powering other location-aware applications - are expected to
drive mobile application growth both in the business and consumer markets.
- In a bid to combat flattening mobile data revenue, Australian mobile
carriers will introduce mobile QoS and revamp their portals to offer
personalised services with network-based intelligence and tighter integration
with application and device vendor partners.
- The battle for supremacy in the mobile device market has heated up again,
with vendors launching the tablet form factor - "the fourth screen" to
complement their three-screen strategies. Cross-screen interoperability and
cloud-based synchronisation will be key to success.
- Although WiMAX will likely remain a niche technology, it has vast
potential in selected applications and, like LTE, it will play a key role in
serving Australians not covered by the NBN' s fibre network.
- Long-term mobile market growth will come from multi-device use, concierge
services and machine-to-machine within such industries as automotive,
utilities, industrial, retail and public safety.
- Conclusion and recommendations.
Table of Contents
1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 6
2 INTRODUCTION 8
- 2.1 Methodology 8
- 2.2 Definitions 9
3 2009 AUSTRALIAN MOBILE MARKET REVIEW 11
- 3.1 Overall Market Review 11
- 3.1.1 Penetration reaching 117%... and counting 11
- 3.1.2 Non-voice and 3G continue to drive ARPU growth 13
- 3.1.3 Mobile broadband and content grow at SMS expense 15
- 3.1.4 Overall market shares 16
- 3.2 Business and Consumer Market Review 17
- 3.3 3G Market Review 18
- 3.4 Mobile Broadband Market Review 21
- 3.5 Mobile Market Review Summary 23
- 3.6 Carrier Performance and Activity Review 24
- 3.6.1 Telstra 24
- 3.6.2 Optus 26
- 3.6.3 VHA 28
- 3.6.4 MVNO 30
4 2010-2014 MARKET FORECAST AND OUTLOOK 32
- 4.1 Forecast Assumptions 32
- 4.2 Market Forecast 32
- 4.2.1 Subscriber forecast: towards 133% penetration in five years 32
- 4.2.2 Service forecast: revenues outgrowing subscribers 33
- 4.2.3 Paid content: fastest-growing non-voice category 35
- 4.2.4 Technology generation forecast: glimpse of 4G LTE 35
- 4.2.5 Billing status forecast: prepaid making a comeback 37
- 4.2.6 Mobile broadband forecast: cost far outstripping revenue 38
- 4.2.7 Five-year mobile market forecast summary 39
- 4.3 24-Month Market Outlook 40
- 4.3.1 4G LTE: a new era has arrived 40
- 4.3.2 Location driving both business and consumer app markets 42
- 4.3.3 Mobile QoS and app-aware services 43
- 4.3.4 Fresh new smartphone war has begun... again 44
- 4.3.5 Rise of "fourth screen" and consumer cloud computing 44
- 4.3.6 Emergence of carrier-owned app stores and concierge services 45
- 4.3.7 New vertical and machine-to-machine opportunities 46
- 4.3.8 WiMAX re-establishing itself... but still no competitor to LTE 46
5 CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS 48
6 RELATED RESEARCH 49
- Figure 1 - Australian Mobile Subscribers and Annual Service Revenue,
- Figure 2 - Australian Mobile Subscribers and Penetration Rates,
- Figure 3 - Examples of Mobile Phones Aimed At Young Children and Seniors
- Figure 4 - Australian Mobile Subscriber share by form factor, 2009 13
- Figure 5 - Australian Mobile Annual Service Revenue, Voice vs Non-Voice,
- Figure 6 - Australian Mobile Monthly ARPU, 2005-2009 14
- Figure 7 - Australian Mobile Monthly ARPU by Generation, 2004-2009 15
- Figure 8 - Australian Mobile Non-Voice Revenue by Application Type, 2009
- Figure 9 - Australian Mobile Subscriber Market Share by Carrier, 2009 16
- Figure 10 - Australian Mobile Revenue Market Share by Carrier, 2009 17
- Figure 11 - Australian Mobile Subscriber Market Share by User Segment,
- Figure 12 - Australian Mobile Subscribers by Technology Generation,
- Figure 13 - Australian Mobile Service Revenue by Technology Generation,
- Figure 14 - Australian 3G Subscriber Share by Provider, 2009 21
- Figure 15 - Australian 3G Service Revenue Share by Provider, 2009 21
- Figure 16 - Australian Mobile Broadband Subscriber Share by Provider,
- Figure 17 - Telstra Next G Coverage Map, 2009 26
- Figure 18 - Optus' 3G Coverage Map, 2009 28
- Figure 19 - VHA' s 3G Coverage Map, 2009 30
- Figure 20 - Australian Mobile Subscriber and Penetration Rate Forecast,
- Figure 21 - Australian Mobile Service Subscriber and Revenue Forecast,
- Figure 22 - Australian Mobile Service Revenue Forecast, Voice vs
Non-Voice, 2010-2014 34
- Figure 23 - Australian Mobile Monthly ARPU Forecast, Voice vs Non-Voice,
- Figure 24 - Australian Mobile Non-Voice Service Revenue Forecast by
Application Type, 2010-2014 35
- Figure 25 - Australian Mobile Subscriber Forecast by Technology
Generation, 2010-2014 36
- Figure 26 - Australian Mobile Revenue Forecast by Technology Generation,
- Figure 27 - Australian Mobile Monthly ARPU Forecast by Technology
Generation, 2010-2014 37
- Figure 28 - Australian Mobile Subscriber Forecast by Billing Status,
- Figure 29 - Australian Mobile Broadband Subscriber Forecast, 2010-2014 38
- Figure 30 - Australian Mobile Broadband Traffic vs. Revenue, 2010-2014 39
- Figure 31 - Telstra' s LTE Roadmap 41
- Figure 32 - Proposed LTE Spectrum Band for Australia 41
- Figure 33 - Current and Planned Usage of Business Mobile Applications,
- Figure 34 - Current and Planned Usage of Consumer Mobile Applications,
- Figure 35 - New vertical and machine-to-machine opportunities 46
- Table 1 - Australian 3G Network Deployment, 1Q 2010 18
- Table 2 - Australian Mobile Broadband Offerings by Carrier, 1Q 2010 vs.
2Q 2009 23
- Table 3 - Australian Mobile Market Key Performance Indicators, 2008 vs.
- Table 4 - Telstra Mobile Market Key Performance Indicators, 2008 vs.
- Table 5 - Optus Mobile Market Key Performance Indicators, 2008 vs. 2009
- Table 6 - VHA Mobile Market Key Performance Indicators, 2008 vs. 2009 29
- Table 7 - MVNO Collective Mobile Market Key Performance Indicators, 2008
vs. 2009 31
- Table 8 - Australian Mobile Market Forecast, 2010-2014 40
- Table 9 - Short-to-Medium and Long-Term Opportunities in Australian
Mobile Market 48