Vietnam Banking Report 2020
発行: FiinGroup JSC
ページ情報: 英文 120 Pages
ベトナムでは新型コロナウイルス感染症 (COVID-19) の効果的な封じ込めに成功しましたが、2020年前半のGDP成長率が1.81％に低下し、過去10年間で最も低い上半期成長率を記録しました。預金残高の伸び率も銀行の収益率も大幅に低下し、資産内容にも大きなゆがみが生じています。他方、COVID-19への対応が契機となり、本格的なDX (デジタルトランスフォーメーション) がベトナムの金融業でも実現しつつあります。
当レポートでは、ベトナムにおける金融・銀行市場について分析し、銀行業・金融業の背景事情や基本構造、主な市場指標 (市場規模・収益率など) の動向と見通し、昨今の市場の主な動き、当局の主な規制・政策、主な市場促進・抑制要因、今後の発展見通し、主要企業 (銀行) のプロファイル、新型コロナウイルス感染症 (COVID-19) による影響などについて調査しております。
Following the Government's implementation of effective COVID-19 containment measures, in the first half of 2020, Vietnam economy witnessed GDP growth falling to 1.81%, the lowest first-half growth for the last 10 years. The pandemic has disrupted global trade and supply chains leading to deterioration in corporate earnings and individual income, which eventually weakens credit demand and asset quality of the banking sector in Vietnam.
In this Banking Report 2020, we provide in-depth analysis of the impact of COVID-19 on every aspect of the banking sector and individual banks, including credit growth, asset quality, earning quality, liquidity, profitability, and operation efficiency. Development trends and regulations in response to the pandemic are also covered.
Credit growth registered a modest 3.45% YTD growth in the first 7 months, significantly lower than the same period last year (7.48%). Despite a series of measured adopted by SBV to encourage credit growth, the demand for new loans fell sharply, since businesses had to scale down production and postpone investment plans. Meanwhile, banks also take extra caution in loan appraisals, considering that the ability to pay back debt of individuals and enterprises are both worsening.
Reported NPL ratio of credit institutions hovered at 1.63%, while total NPL ratio including bad debts held at VAMC and potential bad debts declined from 4.96% to 4.43%. However, the figure did not fully reflect the asset quality picture of banks due to the influence of SBV's Circular 01 which allowed credit institutions to postpone categorizing overdue debts incurred before 23 Jan to NPLs. Concurrently, corporate earnings considerably worsened in the 1H2020, threatening their ability to pay back debt and eventually bank asset quality.
In 1H2020 average NIM, which was heavily impacted by reduction in interest rates and decline in demand deposit, recorded a low level of 2.9%. Net fee and commission income also declined substantially.
The liquidity of the banking system remained abundant, reflected in the overnight interbank rates and government bond yield that have remained low since the beginning of the year. In 1H2020, despite modest expansion, total customer deposit and money supply still grew beyond credit growth as bank saving is still considered a save choice amidst the complicated epidemic and economic downturn, which helped maintain the abundant liquidity for the banking sector.
Notably, under Directive 11, the Government grants the fiscal package of VND30trn for tax exemption/reduction and the VND250trn credit package that credit institutions may assist customers affected by the pandemic. Also, SBV's Circular 01 allows credit institutions to reschedule the payment term for both principal loans/financial leases and overdue interest overdue from 23rd January 2020 until the Covid-19 ends for 3 months.
Digital transformation has bloomed among Vietnamese banks recently with the surge of digital banking transaction volume and value. The emergence of COVID-19 along with changes in consumer behavior and support from the Government bolstered this transformation.