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市場調査レポート

ベトナムの銀行業の分析

Vietnam Banking Report 2019

発行 FiinGroup JSC 商品コード 395945
出版日 ページ情報 英文 116 Pages
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ベトナムの銀行業の分析 Vietnam Banking Report 2019
出版日: 2019年06月30日 ページ情報: 英文 116 Pages
概要

当レポートでは、ベトナムにおける金融・銀行市場について分析し、銀行業・金融業の背景事情や基本構造、主な市場指標 (市場規模・収益率など) の動向と見通し、昨今の市場の主な動き、当局の主な規制・政策、主な市場促進・抑制要因、今後の発展見通し、主要企業 (銀行) のプロファイルなどについて調査しております。

当レポートの更新内容

第1章 銀行業界の業績の分析

  • ベトナムの銀行部門の概要
  • 貸出金増加率
  • 預金増加率
  • 流動性
  • 自己資本の十分性
  • 資産内容
  • 収益性
  • 経営効率
  • 銀行の一覧と銀行株の評価

第2章 資本市場

  • 固定収入市場 (債券市場)
  • 証券市場

第3章 企業合併・買収 (M&A) と業界再編

第4章 市場動向

  • ベトナムのリテールバンキング市場
  • モバイルペイメント市場と、ノンバンク企業との競合

第5章 主要な政策・規制枠組み:最新情勢

  • 金融機関の関連法の改正
  • 証券・保険市場の再構築
  • ベトナム証券取引所 (Vietnam Stock Exchange) の設立計画
  • P2P取引規制の「サンドボックス (試験台)」

付録

  • 主なマクロ経済指標
  • 国営商業銀行のプロファイル
    • Agribank
    • Vietcombank (VCB)
    • BIDV (BID)
    • Vietinbank (CTG)
  • 主な民営 (株式会社) 商業銀行のプロファイル
    • Sacombank (STB)
    • Military Bank (MBB)
    • Asia Commercial Bank (ACB)
    • Saigon - Hanoi Bank (SHB)
    • Vietnam Prosperity Bank (VPB)
    • Techcombank (TCB)
    • HCMC Housing Development Bank (HDB)
    • Vietnam International Bank (VIB)
    • Oricombank (OCB)
目次

What's new in this issue?

Overall, Vietnamese banking system experienced a relatively stable year in 2018. The sector recorded moderate credit growth. Sectors that could threaten the stability of the system such as non-production loans including high-end real estate, consumer loans and black credit market are to be closely monitored.

Macroeconomics, which provide the environment for the banking system, experienced a stable period with the highest GDP growth since 2012, tightly controlled inflation rate and the positive foreign inflows via trade and overseas remittance.

With only 6 months to go until 2020, Vietnam plans to speed up restructuring with multiple regulatory changes throughout the financial system. In this 2019 Banking Report, we aim to provide you with the latest industry updates, along with our local insight and analyses, to help you understand the unique opportunities and challenges that the Vietnamese banking system is facing.

Credit growth has slowed down to 14% at YE2018 from 18% at YE2017

Credit registered a modest 14% YoY growth in 2018 after three consecutive years of high growth and targets to be the same in 2019. Capital adequacy requirements play a strong role in managing the growth, as banks cannot aim for high credit growth if they do not fulfill Basel II CAR requirements before 2020. Additionally, SBV increases its scrutiny on the growth of the real estate and consumer finance market.

In fact, the consumer finance market - the growth engine in the last few years - also underwent a slowdown with the maturity of the market, increased competition among banks and finance companies, and (still in drafts) amendments to restrict housing and cash loans.

In line with the SBV's priority to improve credit quality and reduce bad debts, reported NPL overall experienced a downward trend.

Due to the latent nature of NPL and relatively low credit growth compared to previous years, which decreases the size of the base, reported NPL registered at 1.91% in 2018 compared to 1.99% in 2017. Nevertheless, overall Vietnam has been reporting progress on combating the problem of bad debt, with results from VAMC and especially the success of the Resolution 42. During the period of 2012-Q12019, about VND907,300bn or USD39.02bn of bad debt has been resolved, 25% of which were credited to the impact from Resolution 42.

Undercapitalization continued to be a pressing issue for banks when currently reported CAR dropped slightly to 12.14% in 2018.

Despite relatively modest credit growth, the system has still experienced a downward trend of CAR. Aside from a handful of listing and M&A activities, most banks still have not fulfilled their capital raising plans. By 1H2019, only eight banks including TCB, VIB, ACB, VPB, VCB, OCB, MBB & TPB have met Basel II CAR requirements.

Banks showed strong profitability performance

Although 2018 recorded NIM at only 2.8%, lower than the two previous years, overall profitability including fees and non-interest income showed an uptick, in line with the sector's development plan.

Banks are required to list on the stock market by 2020.

As announced by Decision 242/QĐ-TTg on Restructuring the Stock and Insurance Markets by 2020 with a vision to 2025, all local commercial banks must be listed by 2020. Furthermore, banks face pressures to list to mitigate the undercapitalization issue. Banks which are sizeable in terms of asset size, strengths in retail banking with a sound fundamental performance would find it most beneficial to be listed soon in 2019-2020. However, this remains a big challenge when banks need to have a clear growth story to attract foreign investors' interests.

Little M&A activities have been recorded since 2H2018 and 1H2019

By 1H2019, there remains 45 commercial banks in total - 4 SOCBs, 31 JSCBs, 1 JV and 9 foreign banks. The government has indicated the commitment to sector consolidation by ceasing to grant licenses to new foreign banks in Vietnam, but instead to encourage strategic investors to take on 100% of one of the zero-VND banks or to buy shares of existing banks. However, due to reasons regarding FOL and minority shares for strategic investors, plus the expected expenses in both resolving the existing bad assets and capital contribution, there has been little M&A activities since 2H2018 to 1H2019.

Vietnam plans to speed up restructuring with multiple regulatory changes throughout the financial system.

Overall, Vietnam is preparing to do an overhaul of the financial system, as the Restructuring Plan of the Financial System 2016-2020 comes closer to the deadline and getting ready for the next phase: raising competitiveness against international and overseas banks and implementation of international standards such as IFRS instead of VAS.

Table of Contents

What's new in this Report

1 Banking Performace Review

  • 1.1Sector Overview
  • 1.2Credit Growth
  • 1.3Deposit Growth
  • 1.4Liquidity
  • 1.5Capital Adequacy
  • 1.6Asset Quality
  • 1.7Profitability
  • 1.8Operational Efficiency
  • 1.9Banking Listing & Bank Stocks' Valuation

2 Capital Markets

  • 2.1Fixed Income Market
  • 2.2Equities Market

3 M&A and Consolidation

4 Market Trends

  • 4.1Retail Banking in Vietnam
  • 4.2Mobile Payment and Competition from Non-banks

5 Major Policy and Regulatory Framework Updates

  • 5.1Draft Amendments of Circular 36
  • 5.2Draft Amendments of Circular 43
  • 5.3Draft Amendments of Circular 39
  • 5.4Draft Amended Law on Securities
  • 5.5Restructuring the Equities and Insurance Market
  • 5.6The plan to establish Vietnam Stock Exchange
  • 5.7P2P Regulatory Sandbox

Appendices

A.1 Key Macroeconomics Indicators

A.2 Profiles of State-Owned Commercial Banks

  • Agribank
  • Vietcombank (VCB)
  • BIDV (BID)
  • Vietinbank (CTG)

A.3 Profiles of Selected Joint Stock Commercial Banks

  • Sacombank (STB)
  • Military Bank (MBB)
  • Asia Commercial Bank (ACB)
  • Saigon - Hanoi Bank (SHB)
  • Vietnam Prosperity Bank (VPB)
  • Techcombank (TCB)
  • HCMC Housing Development Bank (HDB)
  • Vietnam International Bank (VIB)
  • Oricombank (OCB)
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